S13M20: Once more onto the beach

 I am, chronologically, not an old man. I will accept I have maybe always skewed more to the "old" side mentally, but I'm hardly a Little Britain, rose-tinted tuppence a bus ticket Luddite. I've always been pro-VAR conceptually (even if I've said on many, many, MANY occasions that the execution is about as bad as could be) alongside other forms of innovation, data, technology etc.

I however, do find myself on the David Mitchell soapbox when it comes to fixture scheduling over the last 10 days. As if Friday night games aren't bad enough, it's been a drawn out trudge through the festive period, with a single day of relief today before another 4 days. There will have been PL fixtures on 11 of the 13 days around this time, with only 1 day off before the FA Cup 3rd round starts, again on a THURSDAY.

Enough is enough. I don't care what colour your boots are but come on.....traditions matter. Otherwise, we might as well become the NFL with their nonsensical stuff designed to just sell more merchandise and TV subscriptions.

Oh. 

S13M(Festive): Good Tidings

Only one thing I'd like to talk about this week and it's not football.

Tom Lockyer. 

To suffer a second cardiac collapse in 5 months on the pitch is just absolutely mind boggling to me. Many of you will know my discomfort when Eriksen returned to playing at Brentford after his on-pitch cardiac arrest in Euro 2020 (in 2021) - you've been given a second chance at life, you've got money, achieved professional goals - don't push your luck. Especially when you can't say you've "fixed" the cause - just tried to make sure that *if* it happens again, you won't die. To me, this is an incomprehensible approach to take - recognising that everyone - and especially elite athletes - have different value systems.

Lockyer is slightly different in that he theoretically had a curative procedure in May, and was under the care of Prof Sharma, who will have forgotten more about sports & cardiology than I will ever know as a general paediatrician. But maybe it's just me, but relying on medical teams to resuscitate you on the field every 15 games might not be the best strategy.

Eriksen came back to the UK because he was banned from playing in Italy as a result of his procedure. I think I'd prefer a similar zero tolerance approach to health here (I think I've written before on head injuries and football...a whole other story).

I read something a couple of weeks ago on how bodies mark and "signpost" the route to the summit of Everest, and I don't really understand why the lessons of Foe, Puerta, Muamba, Nouri, Tiote, Eriksen and so many more haven't been learnt. The trajectory seems to be increasing even with screening - so why are we allowing this?

S13M17: Top of the Tree

Festive period fixtures - officially started now? Weird kick off times, unusual days and an additionally coded fixture calculator to take into account travel & policing requests. Magical.

Congestion causes rotation, fatigue and injuries - so we often get some weird results this time of year. Like pretty (below) average beating Liverpool 1-0 on moral victories, until the ubiquitous PGMOL manacle was clamped to their collective ankle. 

Similarly - home banker for Brighton turned into dropped points against Burnley and Man Utd - well I'm not sure they have bankers, but being morally beaten 4-0 at home to Bournemouth is bad, even for them. Ten Had forever.

Sheffield United also won. What on earth went on last weekend? A rupture in some wormhole? Some football happened in the Midlands which nobody watched, Everton showed the power of an us against them mentality, winning for the 2nd time in a week against good expensively assembled opposition to vacate the relegation zone. With their 10 points back, they'd be 10th.

Fulham continue to be the Pride of West London, Luton did a Palace against Man City - it's the hope that kills you before Spurs ended their streak of turning leads into losses, thumping a Newcastle side that look to have lost their legs. Or their heads. #geopoliticaljoke.

I'd not planned to discuss referees, VAR or the PGMOL because I'm so so so bored of it, but I will mention the FA and the judgement yesterday against Mikel Arteta, where he was effectively found innocent or whatever the phrase is.

Well - not the FA. The Arsenal legal team who attempted in their submission to mitigate his words by saying English isn't his first language and Disgrace and Desgracia have different connotations in English/Spanish.

Mikel takes the stand and goes "yeah, nah, I knew that, I meant disgrace". Brilliant stuff. Who'd be a lawyer*....

*Me probably. Suits looked fun.

S13M16: Emery the Sandbagger

December starts, festive season run up, with games coming more or less twice a week until the FA Cup 3rd round now. So prepare for some double matchday blogs.

Let me do broad winners & losers from the 2 rounds of games.

Winners:
*Arsenal - 2 wins including another late late show and a little gap opening at the top
*Everton - 2 wins to pull away from trouble, even after the points deduction
*Liverpool - don't sleep on a quietly strong season, even after a total midfield rebuild
* Aston Villa - maybe disappointed to drop points to Bournemouth but a late equaliser and then to dominate Man City in a way a Pep team has never been dominated before was special.
*West Ham - Another decent season brewing, even after losing their totemic captain

Mild-winner:
*Man Utd - for still getting points even when being rubbish, and then finally having a performance where they 1) weren't rubbish and also 2) really showed what rubbish is. 
*VAR/PGMOL - not the headline! Woo Hoo!

Losers:
*Chelsea - see above
*Notts Forest - it's pretty bad
*Burnely - see above
*Spurs - 1 point from 15. Not good enough mate
*Palace - just what's the point
*Man City - 3 points from 12. Mini-wobble from Man City.

We've also seen the first sacking - Sheff Utd doing a Watford and bringing back the old guy. Will definitely go well....

S13M14: Second Trimester

 One third of the season gone. 

Man City & Liverpool kicked the weekend off and shared the points. Liverpool not at their best - a rare dodgy game from Alisson but they stayed in the game and were rewarded with a late strike from TAA to equalise.  Later goals were the theme of the weekend, with winnners from Soucek for West Ham, Brown for Luton, Havertz for Arsenal & Willian for Fulham at the death. 

It was also the first game for Everton since their points deduction and they were determined to turn Goodison into a bear pit. That only lasted a few minutes before a brilliant overhead kick from Garnacho deflated the atmosphere. In fairness, Everton created enough to get something from the game, but failed to take anything, whilst leaking like a Tory cabinet in the run up to an election at the back - Man Utd running out comfortable winners. Equally comfortable were Newcastle, who scored a quick brace, before Chelsea captain Reece James decided to ensure he got first dibs on the hot water and Bournemouth, who were 3-0 up with the kettle on after 51 minutes.

Villa &Brighton picked up away wins - Emery getting the better of his good mate, Ange who has seen the early season form drift away through injury and suspension. Brighton held off a Notts Forest comeback when down to 10 men after Lewis Dunk, allegedly, called the ref a cheat. Which, given the PGMOL Shambles this season, probably falls down on Hanlon's razor.

S13M13: We go again

Post-Interlull blogs are always a bit meh, but I have just remembered the Chelsea vs Man City game. What a lot of lunacy that was. Wonderful stuff. Poch's Chelsea....the new Keegan's Newcastle?

Also, this week - Everton - first PL club to be deducted points for being financial felons. Some squeaky bottoms in Abu Dhabi and wherever Boehly calls home. America. let's just say America. 

It's all pretty clear cut to me. Any team without a cannon on their badge to be deducted 100 points. Any team without 2 As in their name to be deducted another 100 points. Any team whose manager doesn't meet the highest estandards of coiffage loses yet another 100 points. 500 if your a bald Dutchman. 

Finally, laugh of the week: A video of William Saliba being shown Arsenal players of days gone by. Pic of Philippe Senderos. Asked to identify, he says "the Everton manager". Wonderful stuff.

Spot the difference....

S13M12: VARception

 Another week. Another controVARsy. What's the point? 

It's embarassing (for the Premier League & the PGMOL) how often this happens. I think back to the Rugby World Cup last month and how video can be so beneficial and think - why did you need to reinvent the wheel? And then, instead of making it round, decide a triangle was a better shape.

Whatever. We aren't rehashing this. 

Man Utd got a late goal to get their jammy win to prolong the lifespan of the ETH regime. Good if you ask me. The only match they've won by more than an odd goal was in the league cup, and many of those narrow wins were gritted teeth and squeaky bums riding a heap of luck. Absolutely awful team, long may it continue.

Brentford showed character to beat West Ham from behind, Palace beat relegated Burnley and Man City spanked Bournemouth 6-1 without significant Haaland intervention. FF losses all round. Everton dropped 2 points late on when Ashley Young scored an OG for Brighton, and relegated Sheff Utd managed to get the latest of late wins against Wolves with one of the aforementioned VAR issues. 

Newcastle ended Arsenal's unbeaten start with the other VARce this weekend. Notts Forest beat Villa on the Sunday before Luis Diaz scored super late to rescue a point for Liverpool at Luton - Darwin with the miss of the season in that one.

And finally - to Monday - aka as Invincibles Day as the final unbeaten record was ended in spectacular fashion. Mate.

Chelsea - the only team to win 4-1 and look bad doing so.

Let's get statty...

S13M11: From the northern reaches

I'm writing this blog after a few drams of Scotland's finest thanks to the lovely people at *Distillery redacted until they pay me money for advertising* so apologies in advance for any typos. No apologies for rambling nonsense because that's all me.

Last week - Spurs continued their solid start with a good win at Palace, holding onto top spot for another week. Mate. On Saturday, Chelsea reverted to peak Boehly, losing at home to Brentford, conceding a wonderful late second, coast-to-coast with the keeper up AND missing his silly foul to stop it. Arsenal thumped Sheff Utd, Bournemouth got a good win against major disappointment Burnley and Wolves resuced a late point against Newcastle. Similarly, Villa beat Luton and Liverpool, Forest. Surprises at West Ham, who lost to Everton and Brighton, drawing with Fulham. Finally, the Manchester Derby was won by Man City without getting out of 2nd gear.

Ten Hag - will he last to December? Place your bets now....

S13M10: Elijah Adebayo is the devil

In 12.5 seasons, we've had 6 perfect scores. Every season, we get probably ~750 attempts at the perfect 10. So it's about 9,000 predicted matchdays.

6 out of 9,000. 0.07% probability. We've had a few near misses over the years, but none as close as this week.

As the injury time board went up at the City Ground, we were 8 minutes away from a perfect week. 7. 6. A long ball was punted forward from Luton player A to Luton forward, Elijah Adebayo. I've been on his wikipedia so you don't have to. Career highlights include loans to Slough, Bognor Regis & Cheltenham. He was at Walsall for 3 years. I'm sure this is a career highlight for him. 

He has 2 players around him. Joe Worrall, defending a lead in injurytime like my small children, embarassed himself, his family and the entire City of Nottingham. He's the captain and went AWOL. Adeboyo cushions on his chest, swivels and smashes it low past the helpless Matt Turner. Point rescued.

Pffffffffffffft. That's the sound of air coming out a balloon.

You've taken this very personally, I hear you say. Correct. Because, dear reader, it was I with the 10 in the bag until this demon stole my crowning achievement. 450 of those predictions are mine. My personal success rate is, well, not 0.07%. But it could have been a sensational 0.2%. That would PROVE* the hypothesis that it's worth doing 10 match accas - you'll win in the long term. But alas, I remain at a 0% success rate. 

So, "Elijah Adebayo" or the Great Satan as I'll now be calling him - I'm coming for you.

Also you Joe Worrall. Also you.

*sort of. Your own money is at risk.

Some other stuff happened to, but who cares any more? What's the point when people like Adebayo are free to roam the earth like the sociopaths that they are.

Liverpool won the Merseyside derby. Wolves got a late winer at Bournemouth. Brentford hammered a very bad Burnley side. City beat Brighton, Newcastle thumped Place (should play Rob Holding). Chelsea fluked their way to a 2-0 lead and then let it slip, and Man Utd beat Sheff Utd. Villa thumped West Ham and Spurs beat Fulham comfortably. You all happy now?

Urgh. Adebayo.

S13M9: Perspective

 Im not going to lie. I really struggled with whether to even write this blog. I've spent precisely 0 time on football in the last 2 weeks. I should have been revelling in Arsenal finally beating Man City - consuming all the content. I'm not even sure I've seen the goal. Everything well and truly put in perspective.

Here's the thing. I love football. I love Arsenal. I couldn't quantify the amount of time I've spent over the years on football. Only a few weeks ago, I nearly collapsed from celebrating Gabi Jesus' late cake-topping cherry against Man United - at that moment, all I felt was ecstasy. To juxtapose one late Brazilian Gabi's winner against a Manchester club against another only weeks later breaks my heart.

So why am I posting? In truth - I don't know. I think because if I stop - I don't know if I'll ever start it up again. Because I've continued through greater personal tragedy than the last 2 weeks. But the truth is - I think I'm doing this because it's what I do - 35ish weeks a year, for 13 years. This isn't me sticking 2 fingers up at terrorism - saying you'll never stop me living my life. It's just numbness on autopilot.

As I'm sure we all do - I'm hoping that this feeling goes - for the right reasons - and I can get back to irreverently writing something nonsensical.

S13M8: I Refuse

Country music has never really been my thing, but Wynn Stewart, may well be the official poster boy of the PGMOL. As lovers of the Bakersfield Sound will attest, Another Day Another Dollar is true in many ways.

Sorry. I meant VAR. Another day, another sodding VAR controversy. I just can't. I'm not going there again. It's BS.

I've spent quite a lot of time in my career working on protocols, human factors and communication. This lot seem to just make it up as they go along and I'm not having it. Bin them all off.

Still, there was other stuff to discuss. Villa. WTF is happening there. Arsenal clicked beautifully on the south coast gaining comfortable wins as did Newcastle and West Ham.

Annoyingly for my prevoiusly committed words, Luton seem determined to get more points than that Derby side. Annoyingly for Pep's dismissive words, that Korean Guy got the winner in a shock loss for Man City. Not a shock loss for Man Utd, who have lost 6 of their last 9 games in all comps. ETH for the first manager to be sacked?

Notts Forest drew with Brentford whilst Chelsea finally got a goal and, then another 60 seconds later to win the Fulham Broadway derby.

Sorry - I can't go into more detail about the Spurs-Liverpool win. 3 points for Spurs, but an absolute farce ruining the game. Though, to be fair, nobody forces Liverpool players to keep getting sent off. 4 in 7 PL games. Filthy.

S13M7: A Quickie

Well what to say?

I'm going to start backwards. Newcastle. 8-0. Away. That was unexpected. As was the away win for Villa at Stamford Bridge - I just can't quite compute how bad Chelsea have been. 35 points from their last 38 games apparently - relegation form.

Brighton and Liverpool picking up max points was less of a surprise...as was the draw in the NLD, as frustrating as it felt from the red side. Certainly the Spurs fans I know are much happier with the result. 

Man Utd arrested their slump with a win at a Burnley side determined to prove us all wrong - matched only in their hopelessness by Luton (who got their first point, proving me wrong last week). Palace & Fulham played out a bore-draw (xG 0.3 vs 0.59) and Man City had a tougher, comfortable win than expected against Notts Forest. Finally - Everton finally won. They'll stay up by default. Awful stuff

S13M6: The Rest is VAR

Someone needs to do some stats.

I don't mean my Key Stage 1 nonsense. I mean proper stats. Like people with beards and star wars and stuff. Because I am *convinced* that there are more late goals than usual, even though *technically* there's the same sort of time to score. I mean, there isn't - the concept of time wasting and time keeping and ball in play is, er, fluid - but there seem to be a lot more goals score after 90+5, than say between 90 & 90+5. Which doesn't make sense. The ball in play number has increased marginally this season - about 3 minutes a game (or a ~6% rise) - I don't believe that super fit, highly drilled athletes suddenly hit a wall before those last few minutes - especially in the 5 sub era.

So, stats boffins. Why?

This week, there were late goals at Wolves (icing), Villa (turnaround) & Spurs (turnaround). Meanwhilst, Luton continued their  quest to finish the season with 0 points, Man Utd doing similar work being dismantled at home to Brighton and Newcastle held off a sprited Brentford. Man City sort of comfortably beat West Ham but made it look harder than it needed to be. Arsenal ended their Goodison hoodoo and Chelsea did their best to ruin my day. I don't know why I'm surprised. That is their raison d'etre.

Then finally, Burnley had a late goal disallowed meaning Forest shared the points. I heard Alistair Campbell moaning about this, but frankly forgot the game was on, so haven't seen it and am bored stiff of VAR controversy and we're in week 5. So, I'll assume he's correct and it was a travesty. Shame for Vinny.

S13M5: Back at the Grind

As everyone knows, my favourite blog to write is the post International Break one. 

Last time out, 3 hat tricks, shock at the Bridge and absolute limbs in North London. There was VAR chat (again). There's talk already of managerial turnover. 

And nah, let's all forget about it to watch some qualifiers for a tournament where all of Europe are invited regardless. Pointless. 

Anyway, I'm just more annoyed by having Evan Ferguson in my Fantasy squad but on my bench. Proper grouchy on that one. 

Anyway, we're back now. For a few weeks until the next unrequited interruption. 

S13M4: Shirt over Hoody

3 games in, 1 to go before the first break in the season. Long time readers will know my disdain for international breaks, and to be honest, international football in general. Why can't we get to that Marxist ideal of no nation states, and just a global workers' paradise where say, nation states can't buy football clubs, or PE vultures can't come in and blow £1bn in 15 months.  I think the only footballing owners (assuming the clubs aren't returned to fan ownership and/or me with indefinite resources) should be self-made ranch owning people with a real interest in sports entertainment. And Tony Bloom because that story is nice. Heartwarming and stuff. 

In fact, having a look at all the owners of PL clubs, only 5 pass the Impossibilitee Fit & Proper Owners Test (IFPOT). I will allow Kroenke (post 2018), Shahid Khan (Wrestling, brilliant), Fenway (Moneyball), Luton as fan owned, Glazers for LOLs. The Nottingham Forest bloke should be allowed but gave Arsenal Covid so he's banned for life. Not great work from the FA.

Anyway, last time out, Chelsea clicked to beat Luton comfortably 3-0. Raheem reincarnated by Argentine parrilla. Spurs comfortably beat Bournemouth. The SouthWestish London derby ended all squares at the AliGTech and early *shock* goals at the Emirates and Old Trafford ended up with 10-man Fulham being elated with their rescued point whilst 10-man Forest ran out of puff against a resurgent Man Utd. Probably given Covid by their owner....

In fact, losing a man seemed so be helpful....more on this in a second.

The late game saw a massive shock with Brighton being dismantled at home by West Ham, although stats suggest a very different game. Didn't watch it. The Sunday saw Man City wobble to a late win against Sheffield United, Villa won leg one of the Claret-Blue TriDerby against Burnley before game of the weekend came at St James Park. Newcastle absolutely flew at Liverpool, with Trent lucky to escape a red card (Tomiyasu says Hi), van Dijk receiving a red card and Gordon putting Newcastle 1-0 up within the first 30 mins. However, in the last 10 minutes, Darwin (finally...thanks FPL gods) got some minutes, scored twice, bingo bango bongo, Liverpool get a massive win and Eddie Howe looks very angry. He's a weird one. Gone from golden boy at Bournemouth 10 years ago to just quite annoying, so happy with that.

Especially if the Saudis then come and take Salah this week. Take Alisson too.

S13M3: Suspension

Well, 2 weeks in to the league season and there's already lots to discuss.

I'm going to focus on 2 aspects - the early separation of the league and the PGMOL soap opera.

We're 2 games in and already the league table is starting to divide into groups that might well stay that way for the rest of the season. Sure, samll sample size, fixture computer etc etc but look at the top 6 now and tell me who's missing? Newcastle played Man City so maybe swap them out for Brentford but would anyone suggest that Chelsea or Man Utd are nailed on for CL with the way they've played so far? Similarly, down the bottom, with the exception of Chelsea - is there anyone in the bottom 8 who's unlikely to be involved in the relegation discussion this year? Lots of projection on Burnley but the other 6 really are likely to stuggle on current evidence.

Still a week left of the window, and obviously only 3 can go down, but we might be in the least worst situation, yet again.

Now, as for the officials. Every sodding year there's a new diktat, a new decision that *Insert Crime* is the worst thing about football ever. There's a ridiculous overreaction from the PGMOL, it doesn't fix anything and causes uproar and ridiculous events before being quietly dropped.

'twas ever thus.

This year, we've got the FIFA-led thing on time-wasting - or ball in play time. Now I LOVE the 13 mins of injury time and I'm a huge fan, but that's a bit counter to also booking people for "wasting" time - it's not wasted because it's now added on. And if it's being slowed down legally, then that's part of the game. Also you don't need new laws - enforce the ones you have. When was the last time you saw a keeper penalised for holding onto the ball for more than 6 seconds - a timeframe explicitly listed in the rules. It's like Let It Flow,  it's like offside changes and everything else. 

Football doesn't always need to be complicated. If games last 100 mins because of time wasting, then the teams have a choice - learn to manage games over 100 mins with subs etc or don't waste as much time. 

 Howard Webb - give me a call. 

S13: We Go Again

Hello! Welcome back old friends & hopefully hello new friends!

Astonishingly, Impossibilitee is entering its 13th season. 13. Mental. I have no idea where all the time has gone - and for the few of you who've been playing since day 1 - what on earth is the matter with you? 

This all started off as a stupid idea, that then grew into a tech enabled stupid idea, that then fuelled an interest in data and levelled up my spreadsheet skills and somehow, has kept going throughout jobs, pandemics, good life stuff & bad life stuff. It's outlived loads of other hobbies and I think has worked it's way through at least 3, if not 4, or even 5 laptops. 

I've just had a flick back through the Internet to see what else happened in August 2010. The Iraq war ended. Tiger Woods got divorced. Love the way you Lie was at number 1. All probably foreshadowing something or another.

Anyway - I'm massively grateful that you've come back again and am very excited to get another season of mediocre predicting under my belt.

For the first time, the new season has sort of crept up on me and I'm not sure why. I always try and divert away from football in the summer and follow other sports, so maybe it's that. Maybe it's other life events. All I know is I've blinked and it's August and I need to crank out a preview blog, predos, announce some changes and so on before the first game in 9 days.

The Technical Stuff

So - let's start with the formalities. If you've played before, skip this paragraph. If you haven't let me direct you to the Rules tab above. It's pretty simple. Each week, you choose which team you think will win the match, or whether you think it'll be a draw. Think Football Pools style for those of you over 60. Each corrrect prediction = 1 point. Scores are averaged out over the season in a leaderboard - best predictor at the end wins the coveted Impossibilitee trophy. Bylaw - if a matchweek has fewer than 7 games, we ignore it, if it has 7-9 games, it get's pro-rated. 

That's it. That's the game. For those who like a flutter and want to share their 10 match accumulator odds, there's an *optional* field to fill in.

We also have included a bunch of celebrity/tech-led predictors and models - just for fun and to benchmark yourself against. 

The New Stuff

This year - there's an added incentive.  Being the Global Brandbassador that I am, Impossibilitee has attracted blue chip sponsorship, so there is a CASH PRIZE for the best human players. The total pot is £100 - to be split as follows

Best Human Player:  £70
2nd Best: £20
3rd Best: £10

The caveat - you have to play 31 weeks to qualify. That's >80% - so it'll be a real test of the best predictors over the course of the season. I'll still be doing the leaderboard as always at a 67% threshold, but those ineligible for the cash prize will be given the asterisk of shame next to them.

There is no cost to enter, but donations to pay for my lunch are gratefully received. Cost of living and all.

The Predictions
Let's start with some Preseason Predos - just for fun. These will be referred back to in May and no doubt mocked relentlessly....

Matchday 1

I'm also putting Matchday 2 up because I want a stress-free return to work after my holiday

Finally - the more the merrier. So please - everyone, ask a friend to play. Last season we had 18 people in the leaderboard at the end of the season. So, let's aim for 35 this season. I send reminders out via the WhatsApp group - so let me know if you want anyone else added - and set alarms and reminders yourself because, let's face it, there'll be at least one week where I forget. I'm happy to send Twitter reminders and considering starting up a MailChimp too, so if there's enough demand for people to play who don't want to be in the WhatsApp group - there'll be an email offering later this season. 

Good luck all!

S12: Almost Perfect

I have been fortunate to attend a lot of football matches in my life, including a great many on the last day of the season. It's up there with me as a special football match - I seemingly start every season with a wistful paragraph about summer days, short sleeve shirts and sunglasses and the last game of the season is the other side of this emotional coin - not necessarily filled with hope and optimism for what will transpire, but reflection on what has passed.

It's always a lovely day weather-wise, like the FA Cup final. I love the 10 games simultaneously. Whether there's something riding on it or not, it's always a highlight for me - helped admittedly by the ridiculous record Arsenal have in these games (17W, 2D 1L in the last 20 years....). This was also my son's first (mens') game which holds special emotional weight for me too. 

Would it have been better if something else had happened? Sure. Would it have been as fun? Probably not. That's the flip-side of massive highs - massive lows if the highs don't arrive. So maybe, from a fun perspective, it's better that way...

Everything else sort of unfolded as expected. Everton won with a screamer to stay up, and Leeds very much did not but, as Villa did, Spurs's points were in vain. Unless I suppose you count them staying in 8th rather than dropping below Brentford into 9th. Congrats all round.

But you don't want to hear about all this. You want to find out who won and stuff. So without further ado, let's get statty

S12M38: One Last Place

Well here we are. The last matchday in the 12th season. The next time a Google form joins this blog, it'll be entering (religious) adulthood. Madness

Results played out over the last week that have now confirmed many things.

Man City are champions - without playing, although they then beat Chelsea for good measure.
Arsenal will finish second, limping to the end of the season. If you'd like to read something else I wrote about that, On Bottle, you can do so.

Man Utd (assuming a point tonight against Chelsea) & Newcastle will get the CL places - order TBC. Liverpool & Brighton will get the EL places. Villa are now favourites for the ECL place, although Brentford and Spurs could get that yet. So that's one thing to look out for on Sunday. I'm going to zoom through mid-table, the Premier League equivalent of the Flyover States to focus on the 2 from 3 situation to go down.

Leicester and Leeds are currently in possession of those 2 spaces with Everton 2 points clear. 

This is how it plays out:

Everton WIN (at home to Bournemouth): EFC survive, LEI & LUFC down

Everton DRAW & LEI WIN: LEI survive on GD, EFC & LUFC Down

EFC DRAW & LUFC WIN, LEI DRAW/LOSE: GD into play. Currently EFC -24 & LUFC -27. So a 3-0 win for LUFC and a 1-1 draw on Merseyside sees LUFC survive on goals scored.

EFC LOSE: LEI & LUFC need to win. If both win, LEI survives. If only LUFC, LUFC survive.

Leicester play West Ham at home, Leeds have Spurs at home too

West Ham are the most in form. Spurs are the highest ranked....

So money on the table time: I've always felt Leeds would survive. But with 1 point from 9 in their last 5 games vs Leicester, Bournemouth & West Ham...it's not looking likely they score 3+ goals vs Spurs. They've scored 3+ times once since November, and that was a statistically mad game vs Wolves. So....Leeds can only stay up if Everton lose & Leicester lose or draw. I just cant see it and it hurts me to say it. Leeds to go down. 

Now who will join them - this one is easier. Leicester are awful and we're far enough away from the ECL final that I think West Ham will win. So, Leicester to go down too, in 19th, Leeds to get a 2 goal win and bitten fingernails to finish in 18th. 

Bosh.

S12M37: Natural Justice

I want to talk about 2 things this week. Let's get the football out the way first:

At the bottom, Southampton are officially relegated. Leicester are 2 points adrift with games at Newcastle and at home to West Ham to save them - a tough ask. West Ham also host Leeds who are 1 point behind Notts Forest - I'd thought they'd be safe based on West Ham being distracted by their ECl semifinal this week, and then playing a Spurs side on the beach at home in the last game, but they're making it very squeeky bum.

Only a point above them are Everton who play Wolves & Bournemouth - both with nothing to play for, so you'd *think* a fired up side would be able to get at least 3 point from 6 and make it interesting. Because only 2 point above them are Notts Forest, who play Arsenal and Palace, so you'd expect, under normal circumstances, to struggle to pick up many more points.

Except, these are not normal circumstances. Arsenal limp to the Midlands, deflated after all but ending the title race. City's win at 2pm made it a racing cert, and a low-energy performance from Arsenal saw them lose to Brighton, chasing Europa League themselves. Man City should wrap it up mathematically this weekend against Chelsea - historically a potential banana skin, but let's be honest....not really one now.

The CL places still sit with Newcastle and Man Utd, who are both 1 point ahead of Liverpool with a game in hand. Late season revival on Merseyside just not enough to rescue them, and a major rebuild of the midfield (and defence probably) will be underway this summer with a new DoF and the announced departures of Firmino, Keita, Milner & AOC so far.

The only other question of note, is who will get the ECL place next season. It looked like Villa might pip Spurs after beating them last week in a "play off" - but they go to Liverpool next whilst Spurs play Brentford, which segues me nicely to topic 2...

Ivan Toney. What a farce. 

In November 2022, he was charged with 232 betting offences, followed up by 30 additional charges in Dec 2022. 262 charges in total, over a period of 4 years. He admitted to many of these charges in February 2023. The hearing (on all remaining charges after the latter 30 were withdrawn) was delayed until this week, when he was found guilty on all counts and suspended for 8 months effective immediately. There was also the usual pointless fine given.

Since the charges were first made, he has scored 10 goals. 3 of these goals rescued draws and 2 of these goals were winners. 4 goals were scored in games that Brentford won by 2 goals. Only 1 goal was scored in a defeat - and even that was an opening goal.

Toney therefore, has gained Brentford 9 points directly. That could have been the difference between a European place next season and lower-mid table. I don't know how to quantify his indirect impact either. There's also the direct Toney impact on the other teams - 2 extra points for Arsenal, Villa & Brighton would be very well received, and Forest would love that extra point now - Fulham probably don't care to be fair.

He has therefore had a real, material impact on this season, playing with charges over him - charges that he had already admitted to in part. He will now play no further part this season against Spurs & Man City - in games that could, theoretically, have huge impacts in determining European places and the absolute fag end of a title race. There's no doubt that Brentford without Toney are a much less worrying prospect - their second top scorer has 7 - 35% of Toney's total.

The FA could have played this out in two ways that would not have impacted the integrity as dramatically:

1. They could have suspended Toney immediately when he accepted certain charges. After a hearing on the contested charges, his ban would take into account "time served"
2. They could have scheduled a hearing date for the post-season - acknowledging that he has played 95% of this one, with any ban commencing from next season (ie 1st July)

This was a situation entirely within their control - it's not an injury, and it's not an urgent matter. If due process dictates that all charges are read and judged at the same time, then set a date that is appropriate and fair - there's no rush now.

That's not even reflecting that he was given an England cap during this time, or that his sentence is at the lenient end (accepting I don't have the facts of the case) and he will now serve ~1/3 of it during the off season, thus costing him around ~25 Premier League game - or ~10 bets/game. 

Not for the first time with the guardians of the game, I find myself asking "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"

Yes, I've read Dan Brown. Get over it

S12M36: Check your shoelaces

 Well then.

3 to play.

Title race just about still alive

Race for 4th down to 2 from 3 probably (sorry Brighton...just too many to overhaul after last weekend)

They'll back themselves for a first European adventure however - in the Europa League and not the ECL

Relegationwise - Southampton are done - possibly officially by the next time we speak. Last week I said Everton and Forest would join them - so of course, both win. And Leicester get thumped...so it's all change. And as time runs out, it's now 2 from those 4 - West Ham & Bournemouth aren't mathematically safe yet, but could be by the end of the weekend.

Upsettingly, Chelsea hit that milestone too with a first win in the 21st century for Lampard. We are gutted in this house and have had a week of official mourning.

S12M35: Finality Incoming

 What a cracking week in the PL.

Goals, drama and some mini-duels starting to see a result

Palace and West Ham played out a 4-3 to kick the matchday off - both teams are probably safe, if sensationally flawed. Brentford beat Forest 2-1 at home -  a later winner continuing their push for an unlikely European place, whilst depriving Forest of what might be a critical point. Also - Ivan Toney - played again, scored again - even after having admitted some of the gambling charges against him. Don't really understand that one.

Brighton then thumped Wolves 6-0 -  a Wolves side very much on the beach. Brighton now sit in 6th with games in hand on Liverpool - so really look good for a first ever European journey next season.

Comfortable wins on the Sunday for Man City, Man Utd and Newcastle pretty much showing the top 4 is locked up, and City went top for the first time in ages. Bournemouth (Safe) then thumped Leeds (not safe) who subsequently did the move du jour of sacking the new manager for a 3-play this season. Will it work Cotton?

Final game on Sunday was an Anfield where Spurs did their usual thing of conceded loads of early goals. Only the 3 this time, which they incredibly clawed back with a 93rd min equaliser from Richarlison. Absolute scenes. First goal of the season for the £60m signing. Ex-Everton. Mason Magic,

Except, as Sir Alex Ferguson once said - lads, it's Tottenham.

Liverpool kick off, ball worked back to Allison who thumps it forward, failing to pick out a teammate. Moura knocks it back to Forster to clear except...he doesn't. He hits it to Jota who fires across Forster and wins the game (that should never have been in the balance) for Liverpool. Sensational. Spurs slump. Klopp goes mad and pulls a hammy. Scandal as Jota had connected with Skipp's head 10 minutes earlier and calls for a red fell on deaf ears. Just very very funny stuff.

Sack the interim to the interim I say.

Bank Holiday Monday saw the true relegation 6 pointer which of course ended up in a draw between Leicester and Everton.

I'm calling it now. Southampton are down. Everton also just look awful. And the third.....Forest.

Final matchday of the round was at the Emirates where Arsenal ended their title-run-ending rut by thumping the most abject Chelsea side in living memory. Sensational stuff from Super Frank. 

Sack the interim I say. Actually don't. Give him a 10 year ironclad contract.

S12M34 & all the results since M29

Yes well.

So I was away. Then I was catching up. Then they JUST KEEP PLAYING MORE FOOTBALL. Mitchell & Webb were too correct.

So I'm not going to write loads of blurb - there are 5 sets of results AND then new predos to get through but suffice it to say that since we last spoke, much has shaken out

City will now win the league. Arsenal will come 2nd. Newcastle and Man Utd will get the other CL places. 

Southampton are going down, as are 2 from Everton, Leicester, Forest and Leeds.

Spurs are bad and have sacked their interim manager.
Chelsea are bad and have not (yet) sacked their interim manager.

Let's get statty:

M29
17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (17/17)
Most disputed result: Bournemouth vs Fulham (4-8-5 split)

Highest odds/ Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1605/1)
Average odds: See above

Best predictor: AFM (7/10)
Worst predictor: Eli Daniels & Aron Kleiman (3/10)
Average score: 4.41/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (17/17)
Worst predicted result: Brighton vs Brentford (0/17)

M30
15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (14/15)
Most disputed result: Fulham vs West Ham & Liverpool vs Arsenal (6-5-4 & 4-5-6 splits respectively)

No bets placed

Best predictor: Me (8/10)
Worst predictor: David Silverman (2/10)
Average score: 4.33/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (14/15)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN (0/15)

M31
15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (15/15)
Most disputed result: Chelsea vs Brighton (4-4-7 split)

Highest odds / Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (617/1)
Average odds: See Above

Best predictor: Josh Daniels (7/10)
Worst predictors: Chris Sutton & David Brickman (2/10)
Average score: 4.56/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (15/15)
Worst predicted result: West Ham vs Arsenal DRAW (0/15)

M32 (8 games, pro-rated)
11 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (11/11)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs Wolves & Bournemouth vs West Ham (5-3-3 & 3-3-5 split respectively)

Highest odds / Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (271/1)
Average odds: See above

Best predictor: Joe Abbot (7.5/10)
Worst predictors: Me & Zoe Daniels (2.5/10)
Average score: 4.66/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (11/11)
Worst predicted result: Arsenal vs Southampton DRAW (0/11)

M33
15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Aston Villa WIN (15/15)
Most disputed result: Chelsea vs Brentford (7-4-4 split)

Highest odds / Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (22750/1)
Average odds: see above

Best predictor: Steven Daniels (8/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of us (3/10)
Average score: 4.73/10

Best predicted result: Aston Villa WIN (15/15)
Worst predicted result: Notts Forest WIN (0/15)

Right. Everyone's results for 5 weeks....

And the leaderboard....(>2/3; 23/33)

It's tight at the top....proper title race!

This week's predos:

Good luck all!

S12M29-31: Easter Break Megapost

As ever post-international break, I'm not rehashing 2 week old football.
Suffice it to say that the clocks have changed, the weather is "warmer" and we're into the home straight of the season now. Eesh.

S12M28: A job half done

Would you believe this this week, I was super organised? Got the stats and graphs and whatnots all sorted by Tuesday and could have done a bit of a draft blog ready to publish yesterday.

Couldawouldshoulda

Got home from the football last night near to midnight and suddenly noticed there's a Friday night game and now the rush is on. 

Shakes Hand At Clouds.gif

So,  rapid recap, then to the good stuff.

Liverpool's Jekyll & Hyde season continued, with the murdery persona coming to the fore at Bournemouth. I do like Stevenson. The man can write a good page turner. 

Everton are going to be fine - they'll get a few wins and will be safe by 4 or 5 points in the end. Same for Leeds I suspect. Chelsea have found some form, and frankly, it's not that funny or surprising. More spending loads of money to get worse please. Spurs did a Spurs and won the no-pressure game, whilst Paddy V has shafted Arsenal twice in a week - needlessly giving away a late penalty to give up the game to Man City before removing himself from the dugout to show Arteta the same courtesy.

Sunday Funday at the cottage saw Arsenal romp the first half, whilst draws at Old Trafford (glum) and the Olimpico (Moyes is going to survive again isn't he....) provided an appetite for 4.30pm fireworks.

Of sorts. The VAR sorts. Wolves will feel very aggrieved, but Newcastle took 3 points to keep the race for 4th alive.

S12M27: Stop Listening to Talksport

The universe is a funny old thing. Last week I had nothing to say. This week, the smile has not left my face. What a few days.

Humans like stories. We're a narrative species, not a numerate species. So we massively over-index things that "fit", especially if it's 1) recent and 2) fits pre-existing beliefs.

The voting of the PFA Player of the Year award often reflects this - a hot streak from December-February before the voting period will count for more than a blistering start to the season reverting to the mean. We also see this in form being extrapolated into something much more concrete without the right power behind the data.

Case in point: 

Narrative: Miguel Almiron hit a hot streak and Newcastle climbed into 3rd place. The Saudi PIF project has been turbocharged by years.

Reality: They're much improved but still some way off a title challenge. This will no doubt come should investment continue to flow (oh hello LIV golf litigation spilling over....), but clearly, it won't be this year. Newcastle's form in 2023 suggests a Europa League/Conference League spot is more likely. Progress - but not turbocharged. 3 points from the last 15 available.

Case in point: 

Narrative: Man Utd are back, swaggering to a Quadruple and swatting away all in their way.
Reality: Rashford in a purple patch, certain toxic Portuguese elements removed and realistically, a reversion to where a squad with that level of talent and expenditure should be - in and around the Top 4 conversation. However, not really in the running for a title race this season.

Case in point:

Narrative: Poor plucky Spurs cannot compete with the riches around them.
Reality: Spurs have spent significant sums poorly and have a wage bill 15% higher than that of Arsenal and have spent just shy of £400m (net £300m) since 2020 (higher than all but 4 clubs). Liverpool, for comparison have spent £300m (net £180m) in the same period. The talent could have been there - it's just been poorly managed internally. See also Chelsea (on steroids).

So - let's settle down. There's a third of the season still to play and whilst strata have appeared, nothing is immovable at this point. 

So, this weekend, Man City swatted aside Newcastle - who did have their chances to be honest. Arsenal beat Bournemouth in a game that will live long in the memory - 96+minutes between first and last goals. It was a day for home wins - Villa beating lacklustre Crystal Palace, Chelsea getting their first win a ages against Leeds, and Southampton climbing off the bottom by beating Leicester. Brighton swatted aside West Ham who will no doubt be managed by someone new in August. Wolves continued their resurgence with a great scissor kick finish from the edge of the area by Adama Traore to climb into the relative safety of midtable and 
consign Spurs to a 9th defeat of the season. The race for the last 2 CL places is now very tight.

Of course, this was helped by matters on Sunday. Liverpool had one of those games, hilariously against Man Utd. xG be damned, that was just a collapse. England's cricket team (pre-Bazball) would have been proud. Notts Forest also got a decent draw, coming back from behind twice to keep Everton in the mire.

Final game was in Southwest London where Brentford thrillingly beat Fulham, with hot prospect Manor Solomon (the highest scoring National Trust property in the PL ahead of Dewsbury Hall) socring for a 5th consecutive game. Wouldn't mind that ending now please...

S12M26: Smoke Rings

Sometimes, it's really easy to decide what to write about.

This is not one of those weeks. I'm not doing VAR again. I'm not doing the end times at Chelsea yet.

Writer's block. Not the rubbish sort where a novelist moans a bit then drinks some whisky early on in the day but proper writer's block where you can *write* something - you know the whole "just put something down on paper and start from there" thing, but it's utter guff and before you know it, you've written 200 words and said nothing. 

Columnists. They have a hard job. Imagine having to do this stuff for sustenance instead of just moaning a bit. I write a column for a quarterly magazine (if you haven't read it, why not) and that's hard enough to find inspo for but at least I have 3 months to stare into the middle distance thinking. Every week. Madness. 

Anyway, Manor Solomon is scoring all the goals, Arsenal have got some Mojo back, which isn't entirely true for Everton. Everyone's favourite typo got off to a good start at Elland Road, whilst West Ham and Man City went goal craaaazy against defensive behemoths Notts Forest (42 conceded, second worst in division) & Bournemouth (48 conceded, worst in division). Napoleon hated Waterloo only 25% as much as Liverpool hate Selhurst Park - points shared there before Spurs got their first win against Chelsea at home in years - more presents from the generous chaps at Boehly Inc. This has led to the comedic stylings of Conte being nominated for Manager of the Month for 3 Spurs wins despite not being present for any of them.

S12M25: Enough

I pride  myself on, for the most part being a rationale actor. Logic is beautiful. Easily deconstructed narratives are silly. As previously discussed, I'm a footballing snob. 

I know and enjoy being swept up in an emotive maelstrom, but equally, enjoy the post-hoc backtracking as the brain takes over from the spleen, which I'm sure is the part of the the body responsible for venting abuse at referees.

If some historic civilisation had come up with an apocryphal story about the organs fighting for supremacy, I'd want to know that they'd put the brain at the bottom. Stuck up stupid organ. Because when push comes to shove, the heart always comes out on top. With TDD. With highs and lows. With massive overreactions to single events - anecdote triumphing over data. 

Whilst I'm at it, evolution is stupid too.

Anyway, the point of all this, is that we're not even 2/3 of the way through this season and so there is literally everything to play for.

Well, not literally. Arsenal and Man City are not getting relegated. Southampton and Leeds will not win the league. But LITERALLY everything else.

As we saw. Arsenal rescued 1 point and then 2 more at the expense of Emi Martinez. Brentford got a similarly late goal to rescue a point at home to Palace. The high scoring weekend continued with single goal victories for Fulham (great late goal against the run of play), Southampton (great free kick for JWB) and Everton who I think we can call safe now. Bournemouth also got a very valuable 3 points at Molineux.

The other late goal was at the City Ground where Forest scored with their only shot on target with 5 to play to hold Man City to a draw. Momentum swinging like the cradle of Sir Isaac.

Newcastle pressed self-destruct on entering the pitch vs Liverpool - 2 goals and a GK red card inside 22 mins. Liverpool kindly then took the button off them so it didn't get too embarrassing, but then forgot to give it back before they went home and ....well...Tuesday happened.

Comfortable home wins on the Sunday for Man Utd & Spurs. Nothing much to say there.

S12M24: Inconceivable

 As soon as the news broke of the VAR farce last weekend, I basically lost it. I consume a huge amount of footballing content during the week and expend far too much energy on a past-time to be healthy.

But, for about 4 days, I just disengaged. The problem with writing a week after the events is that the world moves on, and people have had their say. The other problem is that the world moves on - but the issue remains, unresolved.

So where do we go? How did it get to this?

Let's start with a simple premise: Football has evolved from the days of yore. The game is faster, players are athletic monsters in a way that they were not even 20 years ago. The financial consequences are higher and the scrutiny, both in terms of eyeballs, but also the wider context of media - traditional and social is much, much greater and, frankly, impossible to manage than ever before.

So, there's a decision to be made: Is football a game in which. human error is part of the spectacle, as it has been for the 140 odd years of its codified existence, or, is it now an industry in which near-perfection must be reached.

The latter point was decided and for all the harking back to another time - that realistically was the only outcome given the money at stake.

So then, why has the paradigm shift not occurred at an organisational level? Clubs extract every benefit they can. Leagues attempt to be run in professional capacities. Only the regulators (and the officials, as regulators of the matches are in this boat too) seem to think themselves immune from the marching long arc of history.

This - this is how you end up with nonsense like last weekend with 2 catastrophic errors in the supposed failsafe. Forgetting to draw lines. Looking at the wrong player to draw a line. This is stuff that a 10 year old fanatical fan could have got right. 

As Mikel Arteta said, "I don't want an apology. I want my 2 points" - but we know that's not how it works.

I was pro-VAR. I frankly still am. I was pro-goal line technology, and semi-automated AI, and miking up the officials, and I am pro-timing being removed from their purview and any other adjustments to the job that allow for a better outcome.

Arsene Wenger ultimately declined for many reasons but one of which, I am convinced was bandwidth. He too, was from another era and refused to relinquish his grip on areas he really should not have been focused on as First Team Manager. He was a stakeholder in the academy, in the club communications strategy etc but his focus should not have been diverted. Ferguson I have no doubt would have gone the same way had he gone on for another decade.

This is now what needs to happen with officiating. Not a "meeting" one morning where they agree to get it right. A proper root & branch review of officiating. 

What is the purpose of the officiating team? Who are the stakeholders in the game and how do they interact with officials? How can technology assist - not take over - but ensure outrageous errors are the exception once a decade, not the rule - 6 confirmed errors in half a season from a full-time professional VAR is unacceptable and he should lose his job.

What are the processes in place? If time is a consideration, then make that known. If the correct decision is the priority, then ignore time pressures. Is the philosophy accurate? 

I can't accept this as human error. Nor as conspiracy for those that way inclined. Nor as incompetence. This weekend was a consequence of arrogance. Of hubris. Of men steeped in a particular footballing culture without the insight and self-reflection to acknowledge that they are as outdated as Richard Keys and Ron Atkinson. They belong to a different era of football, and the only way out is with fresh vision, taking inspiration and best practice from other sports and fields who have managed to innovate effectively.

Otherwise, you can guarantee, I'll be writing yet another piece on VAR before the end of the season.

S12M23: Erry Day/School Day

So, in the research for this piece I've learnt that Sir Mick Jagger & Keith Richards co-wrote Bittersweet Symphony with Richard Ashcroft. This is not relevant to anything else. Well done them though.

Anyway, football's a funny old game as they say. Chelsea showed the findings from Real Madrid and PSG are reproducible - all the money in the world does not guarantee success when spent stupidly. Sample size issues.

All the new manager narrative klaxons then came true as Everton won their first game of the season in classic Dyche ball style. Annoying. Unai Emery remains a total fraud, conceding 4 goals to Leicester. That's FOUR. At home. Madness

At least you can rely on data (Brentford and Brighton) beating.....yachts. I dunno. Southampton and Bournemouth. Does Wessex deanery count as a slam?

Man Utd and Spurs both got good wins - at the cost of key player red cards. Spurs's hoodoo over Man City in particular is outstanding. Football is so weird. Notts Forest beating a rubbish Leeds was the final straw before Jesse got his Marsching orders. Shut up. It was either that or a Ted Lasso joke. Wolves continue their Remontada - thumping a lacklustre Liverpool. I know the words are being said in the right order, but you can't convince me Klopp will be there by the end of next season.

Finally, and out of order, because, well - I forgot - Newcastle have started to drop a few points here and there as expected. Phenomenal season from them and unfortunately, they look to be spending money in a smart way. It's only a matter of time. Moyes has sparked a mini-revival which should keep him safe now until the end of the season.

Let's get statty:

This week, 18 people played
Most popular prediction: Arsenal WIN (18/18)
Most disputed prediction: Notts Forest vs Leeds (8-5-5 split respectively)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (4999/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (598/1)
Average odds: 2351/1

Best predictor: Nick Taylor-Collins (6/10)
Worst predictor: Raffi Kleiman (2/10)
Average score: 4/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd & Brighton WINS (17/18)
Worst predicted result: Everton WIN (0/18)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (>2/3; 15/21) - bad cropping this week

To this week's predos:

Good luck all!

S12M22: Biannual Resolve

 Every. Single. Time.

Every single time. Twice a year, I end up getting sucked in to the swirling, gurgling abyss that is the Transfer Deadline Day.

I absolutely hate it. I tell myself I'm a more cultured breed of fan. I avoid Talksport like the plague. I spend my pocket money on high-end footballing content, and lean into the tactical, psychological and data fields with a degree of snobbery I usually only reserve for coffee.

I liberally use phrases like "squad building", "strategy" and "profile" and sneer at the YouTube generation with their clips and their Football Manager approach to transfer -spending imaginary money with no thought to the second order effects. God, I use phrases like second order effects.

I know the process. I know how deals are done. The complexities, the moving parts and the fact that the chronology publicly, even in this era of integrated, constant news, does not necessarily correlate with the activity behind closed doors. I know how I should react.

And yet, twice a year, I have ALL the tabs open, and constantly refresh Twitter. I know I'm going to get 63 notifications when anything of note happens. I know "linked with" does not progress to a photo of the player, pen in hand in 15 minutes. But try telling that to my hands as I smash the buttons searching for that hit of dopamine - already diluted by the drip-feeding of tidbits building anticipation whilst fatiguing the adrenaline response. 

So you create narratives, multiple narratives to justify and protect. You craft tweets and blogs and edit, delete and eventually, send nonsense just to feel that your energy has some value (5 addenda if anyones asking on one thread I published). That reptilian brain comes out on top - I am as base as anyone else.

But, when all's said and done, what a January - on and off the pitch. Happy as a Theo at the 2006 World Cup.

Let me focus on the "Big 7" - itself a ridiculous concept.

Arsenal can be happy with 2 solid short/medium term signings and a medium/long term signing, whilst maintaining a lead at the top.

Man City did very little business, losing Cancelo out the blue (bah dum tisch) which may be a master stroke in uniting a disharmonious dressing room, or a major error leaving a team weakened behind him

Newcastle quietly continue to work their strategy. Young British intake, streamlining the squad with Chris Wood already upgraded twice within a year. 

Man United are now, officially, post-Woodward. They are competent off the pitch, with the Ronaldo show shifted to Riyadh decisively, and replaced with a low-profile move who fits the Ten Hag system and does not block the incoming major signing in the summer if rumours are to be believed. Eriksen crocked at the end of the window - no sweat, a solid loan signing to cover in Sabitzer. The Banter Era appears over. Devastating.

Spurs, the OGs at Deadline Day nonsense eventually signed Porro after going round in the traditional Levy circle for the entire window. Of course, it has a loan/obligation format, as is trendy to meet FFP needs. Loan management is not for amateurs though. Just ask Matt Doherty. Asset written off due to what can only be described as incompetence.

Liverpool got off to a good start, signing Gakpo for a good price early on. And that was that. No more ins, no real outs and there's a real sense of instability around the back office until the sale/investment saga is concluded.

Chelsea. Where to even start? They honestly break my head. The plan, one assumes, is urgent overhaul. It's unclear why this was needed given Chelsea were hardly awful last season even with the sanctions. If the January signings had been made in the summer, you can sort of understand - forget price tags, we want young talent to come in. But it's in the context of replacing not last season's team, but replacing expensive, experienced summer signings - Sterling, Koulibaly, Aubameyang and so on. There's a lot of gambling - high price tags for limited experience, long term contracts to make FFP compliance easier, providing other incomes are met - like CL money. And of course, the classic Galactico move of Reverse Mulleting (TM) - Party up front, Nothing at the back.  James is the only real rightback and he's injured. No defenisvely oriented midfielders as Kante and Zakaria are injured and Jorginho was sold. Still no central striker option, although I guess this is tactical. 

Could it work? Sure, eventually. See Man Utd above. Throw enough money at a problem and it'll eventually come good. But it's pretty risky from guys without any real grounding in the industry to date. External perspectives can be excellent. But most innovation ends in failure....

Let's get statty:

Last time out, 17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/17)
Most disputed predicted result: Fulham vs Spurs (5-5-7 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (3595/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (2103/1)
Average odds: 2849/1

Best predictor: AFM (6/10
Worst predictors: Aron Kleiman (2/10
Average score: 4.35/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/17)
Worst predicted result: Leicester vs Brighton DRAW (1/17 - well done AFM)

Everyone's results

And the leaderboard (>2/3 weeks, 15/21)

To this week's predos:

Good luck all!

S12M21: Proverbial

We all love an aphorism. That shot of distilled wisdom cutting through much of the tumult of life. You hear it and think "yeah, that works". It's lifting.

Proverbs on the other hand are irritating. Glib. Easily disproven. Supercilious nonsense. I appreciate it's not mandatory to have strong feelings regarding linguistic devices, but this, I assume, is why you all check in.

You'll be no doubt waiting with bated breath to find the segue to football. To be honest, there wasn't one. PUNDITS LIKE PROVERBS, there you go. I just fell down a Google pit after wanting to discuss the whole London Bus waiting thing*. Basically, I was looking for an intro to explain why there was no blog last week, and have just irritated myself instead.

So, sorry. Stuff unexpectedly came up late last week - lots of stuff - and basically the blog was the thing to get guillotined. 

To be honest, it hasn't all dissipated just yet - so whilst I'd love to write a nice gloaty blog, bathing in the schadenfreude, I'm just going to get to the boatload of results below and repost the form for this week's predos.

Hopefully, normal service to be resumed next week.

*Someone has actually worked this stuff out. I fully plan to memorise this and regurgitate it when someone next uses the saying.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 18

18 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (18/18)
Most disputed prediction: West Ham vs Brentford (7-6-5 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (444/1)

Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (348/1)

Average odds: 407/1

Best predictor: WhoScored.com (8/10)

Worst predictor: Raffi Kleiman (3/10)
Average score: 5.89/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (18/18)

Worst predicted result: Newcastle vs Leeds DRAW (0/18)

Matchday 19

18 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man Utd & Arsenal WINS (16/18)
Most disputed prediction: Everton vs Brighton (6-5-7 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (2272/1)

Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1571/1)

Average odds: 1967/1

Best predictor: Raffi Kleiman (7/10)

Worst predictors: Nicholas Taylor-Collins & David Silverman (1/10)
Average score: 3.5/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (16/18)

Worst predicted result: Notts Forest WIN (1/18) - Josh Daniels with the dub

Matchday 20

17 people played

Most popular predicted result: Newcastle WIN (16/17)
Most disputed prediction: Wolves vs West Ham (7-4-6 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (6173/1)

Lowest odds: Andrew Feneley's Mother (3329/1)

Average odds: 4751/1

Best predictor: Josh Daniels (8/10)

Worst predictor: Raffi Kleiman (3/10)
Average score: 5.65/10

Best predicted result: Newcastle WIN (16/17)

Worst predicted result: Southampton WIN (1/17) - I am a literal GENIUS

Everyone's results:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 14/20)

This week's predos:



Good luck all!