Thursday 27 March 2014

M30 Results & M32 Predos - London Bloody Buses!

I'm not going to expound this week as I did last time around about all the matches that occurred. Partly, that's utter cowardice to hide from a horrific week, partly it's because I wrote a lot last week and I don't want to go on and on every week, but mainly, it's because it's actually gone and happened.

10/10. The jackpot. Perfect predictions.

But there's more....

Not just 1 person....nah, that's not how we do it here (royal we, I certainly didn't score 10) - 2 genii have shown there innate footy knowledge...and thank jeebus one of them wasn't Lawro.

I reckon it was a perfect storm of some easy to predict games and some luck (Pappiss Cisse, ya utter ^?&#) - but regardless...this project was started to see whether it'd be possible to actually predict all 10 Premier League fixtures correctly.

Back then, I calculated (using highly basic maths) that odds of this occurring were ~3000/1. To date, 1874 individual matchday predictions have been made (no.players per week x total number of weeks) - and now we have had 2 successes, suggesting that actually...once every ~937 bets, someone should get it right*. Basically...if you put a £10 on your accumulator every week, you should be in profit eventually, although it might take nearly 30 years!

*Obviously this is completely wrong. The sample size is far too small to draw these kind of conclusions, but that'd make a crap blog so in the interests of poetic licence, I'm choosing to ignore this point

Let's do the big reveal and get statty:

This week, 21 people played
The most predicted results were Liverpool & Everton WINS (21/21)
The most disputed result was Chelsea vs Arsenal (10-7-4 split...too many gooners....)

The highest odds were a quite frankly ridiculous 21, 452/1 from, no prizes for guessing, Josh Daniels
The lowest odds were Steven Daniels' 1454/1
Average odds: 9386/1

Best predictors: EuroClubIndex & FinkTank - 10/10!!!! Still no perfect humans though!
Worst predictor: Josh Daniels (4/10). Shock horror
Average score: 7.32/10 - a new record I believe!

Best predicted result: Liverpool & Everton WINS (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea, Hull & Norwich WINS (10/21)

Everyone's results:


Leaderboard:



To this week's predictions:

Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Southampton vs Newcastle - SOUTHAMPTON
Stoke vs Hull - STOKE
Swansea vs Norwich - DRAW
WBA vs Cardiff - DRAW
Arsenal vs Man City - DRAW
Fulham vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs Spurs - LIVERPOOL
Sunderland vs West Ham - SUNDERLAND

Total odds: 1983/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys, let's see if we've unlocked the secret now!

Thursday 20 March 2014

M29 Results & M30 Predos


Well then! Quite a busy weekend eh? Mel & Magath get off the mark, Southampton's British contingent look to push on and secure a World Cup spot, and Everton leave it late to win with one of the jammiest goals I've seen in a long time. The sort of goal that you'd be embarrassed to celebrate too actively.

In the big games - let's go chronologically...Villa pulled off a shock win against a Chelsea side looking to extend their lead at the top. It was all square until Will-i-an received a second booking midway through the second half, for what was perceived to be an innocuous challenge. Unfortunately, I didn't have my glasses on at the time, and it looked to me as if he macheted the back of Delph's knees as if he were a gazelle on the savannah. The rewind button on my TV was also broken temporarily so I was unable to check whether my initial impression was correct once I'd located my glasses. What I did watch over and over was the bloody good goal Villa scored. Great build up play from our antelopine friend before a cheeky/total fluke finish left Cech looking rather ungainly. There was still time for a trademark Ramires Reducer from the flithiest Kenyan since this bloke. A disgusting tackle, which deserved the straight red, and caused some chaos on the pitch. Moaninho was sent to the stands for being a generally huge arschloch, and he bleated on about loads of other people committing the same crime with no punishment. Unfortunately, every single pixel on my TV screen except for the immediate LED halo around Mou broke temporarily at that exact moment, so I can neither confirm nor deny if that was true. I did however find my glasses, so a good night for mankind, I feel.

However, all that was overshadowed by the events of Sunday. Due to poor (I blame the wife) planning, I was otherwise engaged all day with preparing for a family event - and therefore missed the game at Old Trafford as well as the North London Derby. Having watched the games later on, let's discuss.

NorthWest correspondent: I thought Liverpool looked pretty good - rapid, counterattacking play beat some ponderous defending. Vidic may well be leaving before he's pushed, Rafael is an utter liability and Man Utd are finally paying for neglecting Midfield as an area of the team, having now lost a football genius who through a variety of techniques (many psychological) are now massively exposed. You can see his loss due to the 3 penalty awards!  To lose at home to major rivals is upsetting; to do so without an attack of note is galling. The question is now, does David Moyes get the backing of the board to carry out the major overhaul needed to come back and compete, after ~£70m already spent to go backwards. This summer, whoever's in charge will not only have to improve the current squad, but also replace at least 2 centrebacks, likely 1 striker and the squadplayer part played by Giggs (as seen midweek). It's serious, serious work and I'd personally like Davey Moyes to stay there forever.

North London correspondent: Someone else I'd like to stay in the dugout forever is the artist formerly known as Gilet. I've long been an advocate of AVB - I don't think he's perfect but I think he's essentially had the rug pulled out from under him both at Chelsea and at Spurs in a very unfair way. There's no point bringing in a guy with a philosophy and backing him if you're not willing to give him a chance to succeed (a la Rodgers). Let's be clear - Spurs are at best, 5th favourites, if not 6th for CL football. That they have flirted with 4th in the last few years is due to underperformance from big guns. That they have got so close, has been in no small part to a Welsh left foot, now stamping to a flamenco beat of a Sunday night. When he decided to leave, it was never going to be an easy task to sustain that kind of form, regardless of the crowing coming from the more knuckle-dragging elements. The decision to fire him, in my opinion was remarkably short-sighted. Spurs shouldn't be anywhere near the Champions' League places given their relative resources. To perform a juggling act of integrating new players and maintaining a semblance of a challenge is a pretty decent achievement in my book, even if the results are inconsistent and the football somewhat turgid. This doesn't mean there wasn't improvement to be made, just that being trigger happy in favour of Tiny Timmy is a hole entirely of their own making.

Anyway - the game was largely reminiscent of Arsenal at the latter end of last season. We scored early (and what a hit) and then backed themselves to hold out against a blunt Spurs attack. Sacking a guy for not being Danny Blanchflower and Ossie Ardiles' lovechild and then replacing him with this mug - y'all deserve what you get.

Quite a lot on other clubs this week - and probably managed to alienate the majority you. Meh...

Let's get statty:

This week, 23 people played
The most predicted results were Everton & Man City WINS (23/23)
The most disputed result was Man Utd vs Liverpool (7-7-8 split)

The highest odds were: 2851/1 Josh Daniels (obvs)
The lowest odds were: 1585/1  Sam Ruback
Average odds: 2207/1

Best predictors: WhoScored.com, Sam Ruback and Charlie R (6/10)
Worst Predictors: Loads of people - see below (4/10)
Average score: 4.66

Best predicted results: Man City & Everton WINS (23/23)
Worst predicted result: WBA & Villa WINS (1/23 - well done Feneley & Charlie respectively)

Everyone's scores:

 

To the leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 of available weeks (19/28):


To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL (1000 games, Mou to lose his home record. Written in the stars)
Cardiff vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Everton vs Swansea - EVERTON
Hull vs WBA - DRAW
Man City vs Fulham - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Norwich vs Sunderland - NORWICH
West Ham vs Man Utd - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Southampton - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Stoke - ASTON VILLA

Total odds: 8596/1 (PaddyPower) ----> This is THE WEEK!

Midweek games are those postponed from a few weeks ago that were not counted, so will not be included. See you back next week

Good luck guys

Wednesday 12 March 2014

M29 Predos

This week, I've had a couple of lovely, and somewhat unexepected Impossibiliboosts. That's right - events so uplifting that I've had to create a word specially to put across the feelings they gave. The first was hearing from 2 people in different circumstances that they missed my ramblings and had got bored of the concise, results-driven posts of recent times. It was really nice to hear, especially as these guys don't play the game, so just read the blog for the heck of it. Almost like they like what I have to say about football....fools. In all seriousness, it was lovely to hear and feel free to stroke my ego further in the future.

The second Impossibiliboost also came out the blue when I happened upon some of our wonderful community in a bar (? I think....not entirely sure what that place was) on Saturday night. Obviously, it's not that rare for me to see someone who plays the game, given that I know most of you personally...but it was the unexpectedness that made it that bit nicer. Learning point from this: feel free to hide about my place of work/residence/petrol stations I frequent so I can have more chance encounters with you wonderful folk.

I'm feeling a little loved up at the minute and whilst I'm giving a lot of credit to you guys, I think in part it comes down to a rare trip to Wemberlee Mark 2 now marked in the diary for L'Arse. I try not to get too partisan in my writings, but it's fair to say that when you're tying with Wigan for trips down Wembley Way (and up those fecking stairs at the end, and then several escalators when inside) that this takes on more significance. That said, the previous 2 trips didn't end brilliantly - so I've come up with a foolproof plan to make sure I have a happier experience (most parts apply to Wenger, not me):

1) Play your best players and don't leave them on the bench to 'inspire the players into knowing they can win without them'
2) Mark their big striker
3) Try not to kick the ball out your own goalie's hands in the last minute
4) Don't watch the game in the presence of jinxed friends

In other news, Cardiff have shown that dead cats bounce, whilst Fulham have shown that dead football clubs run by Saddam don't. Mourinho's still a dullard, but a dullard who now has a healthy lead whilst rivals Arsenal lose players and momentum, and Man City lose to Wigan all form and Liverpool....well they're doing ok but just aren't going to win the league so there.

Man Utd are on a little roll too. 1 more win and they will have their best sequence of results under David Moyes* so there you go.....he just needed a little time. Hopefully another 5 seasons of it! In international news, that foul from that bloke in the Israeli league that's been going around - that was pure filth. Rumour has it that Ryan Shawcross has it saved in his favourites. And completing our international round up, this Aaron Hunt malarkey has me baffled - yeah, it was nice of him but let's be honest, it's no Robbie Fowler intentionally missing a penalty at 1-0 up. Of course, he didn't have that less-sporting McAteer to smash home the rebound.

*I've done absolutely no research to back that statement up. Probably not true.

I think I'm up to date on PL results, so let's just do this week's predicitons:

Hull vs Man City - MAN CITY
Everton vs Cardiff - EVERTON
Fulham vs Newcastle - DRAW
Southampton vs Norwich - SOUTHAMPTON
Stoke vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace - SUNDERLAND
Swansea vs WBA - SWANSEA
Aston Villa vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Liverpool  - DRAW
Spurs vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Total odds: 1955/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck y'all

Friday 7 March 2014

M28 Results & FA Cup QF Predos

Apologies for the late blog this morning. I thought I'd pressed "Publish" last night, but in my blurry haze, had pressed "Preview" instead.

Last week's results:

This week, 22 people played
The most popular predicted result was a Spurs WIN (20/22)
The most disputed result was Hull vs Newscastle (4-7-11 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (duh) 6285/1. On an 8 Match accumulator!
Lowest odds: Me & Steven Daniels, 239/1 (copycat)
Average odds: 2083/1.
Average odds without the ridiculous outlier above: 682/1. Thanks Josh.

Highest scorers: Will O'Doherty & James Tobias (6/8)
Lowest scorers: Josh Daniels & Danny Hakimian (3/8)

Best predicted result: Spurs WIN (20/22)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (0/22 - in hindsight....really....no-one saw that coming? OK, fine, blind optimism from gooners, but Doron? I expected better...)

Everyone's results:


To the leaderboard, and a couple of new names....so keep playing until the end of the season regularly and we should see a few more! The FinkTank has had their lead cut at the top, whilst Menachem & David battle for the (non-existent unless you're Nick Collins searching for love in a rough, tough world) title of "Best Human Player". Doron bumps Josh Daniels back down to ensure his hiatus from the bottom of the table is as brief a stay as is possible. In midtable...er....we're all Southampton.


No Premier League fixtures this week - as in previous years, I don't count week's where too few (<7) matches take place as it unfairly distorts the statistics. If you have a craving, and can't wait for next weekend, here are my UNOFFICIAL predos, feel free to comment should you so wish:

WBA vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Cardiff vs Fulham - FULHAM
Crystal Palace vs Southampton - DRAW
Norwich sv Stoke - STOKE
Chelsea vs Spurs - CHELSEA

However, there are FA CUP games for those involved in the FA CUP game.

Arsenal vs Everton - ARSENAL
Sheffield United vs Charlton - SHEFFIELD UNITED
Hull vs Sunderland - HULL
Man City vs Wigan - MAN CITY

Best of luck y'all, FA CUP results & M30 predos to follow next week!