Friday 27 December 2013

M19 & M20 Predos & FA Cup Rules

Yet another quick post here guys.

Matchday 19 predos:

West Ham vs WBA - WBA
Aston Villa vs Swansea - DRAW
Hull vs Fulham - HULL
Man City vs Crystal Palace - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Man Utd - MAN UNITED
Cardiff vs Sunderland - DRAW
Everton vs Southampton - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Chelsea vs Liverpool - DRAW
Spurs vs Stoke - SPURS

Total odds: 2234/1 (PaddyPower)

Matchday 20 predos:

Swansea vs Man City - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Cardiff -ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Norwich - CRYSTAL PALACE
Fulham vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Liverpool vs Hull - LIVERPOOL
Southampton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Stoke vs Everton - EVERTON
Sunderland vs Aston Villa - SUNDERLAND
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Man United vs Spurs - MAN UNITED

Total odds: 781/1 (PaddyPower)

The FA Cup prediction game makes its return next week with the 3rd Round. It's a totally separate game from the regular Premier League stuff, so if you don't want to play, it will have no effect on your score. It was just a good way last year to make things interesting, and a few people ended up quids in.

Let's keep the stake the same - £3 - and the rules are simplified this year; no more co-efficients and complex maths. Simply put, every tie is worth a point, and the cumulative score at the end of the competition will decide the top 3, who'll win the pot in the ratio 70%-20%-10%. How much they win depends on how many people play. All you have to do is predict which team will go through the round - nice and simple. Full fixture list to be published in due course, but as there are a fair few games, have a think about who you'll be going for.

Good luck guys.

Monday 23 December 2013

M18 Predos

Just the predos:

Results to follow in the new year

Hull vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace - ASTON VILLA
Cardiff vs Southampton - DRAW
Chelsea vs Swansea - CHELSEA
Everton vs Sunderland - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Stoke - NEWCASTLE
Norwich vs Fulham - NORWICH
Spurs vs WBA - DRAW
West Ham vs Arsenal - DRAW
Man City vs Liverpool - MAN CITY

Total odds: 1872/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck, and don't pig out too much

Thursday 19 December 2013

Matchday 16 Results & 17 Predos

Howdy peeps.

So last week was an interesting one, then.

I only caught (and have still only seen) the last 10 minutes of Man City vs Arsenal. What a redonculous 10 minutes that was. If the whole game was like that, then that must rate as one of the best value for money games in football history. Aside from the 3 goals I saw scored, Bendtner had a goal disallowed for offside (very close, probably correct), Walcott had a very good chance and City looked dangerous as well. Sure, the defending was mad, but the people want goals damnit!

If I'm totally honest, I didn't see another sausage of football all weekend, but if we fast-forward to Sunday, Spurs were spanked by the Scousers, which ultimately seems to have cost AVB his job. I have to say, I thought he was totally hard done by at Chelsea, and was worried when he took over from 'Arry at Spurs, but it's a real marmite issue - you can argue that he gave Spurs the highest points total they've ever had in the Premier League, whilst losing one of his star players, and that after losing the other star player, rebuilding 1/3 of a squad and rejecting a chance to manage Qatar FC in St Germain, he deserved time to consolidate on a decent start with new players and being in the running for CL football, in the QFs of the League cup and a good Europa League performance too.

On the other hand, he presided over several spankings, his football sometimes appeared dour if not strange, he clearly couldn't utilise Soldado, didn't trust Defoe and had no relationship with Adebayor. He'd lost the defensive stability of last year with Dawson and Lloris regressing and seemed unable to relocate it. Most crucially, he never won the press over, initally for not being 'Arry, and then latterly for singling out one of their own. Unfortunately, it seems impossible to survive once Fleet Street sets it's mind on unseating you.

For what it's worth, I think he's still unfortunate, although certainly more culpable than at Chelsea. The news that he didn't want 4 of the new signings also suggests that not all was well in the Kingdom of Chigwell. I'd welcome debate this week, along with predos. (I welcome debate all weeks, though it's rarely forthcoming).

In other news, Tan of Cardiff fame is a complete Wasteman.

Let's get statty:

This week, 24 people played
The most predicted results were Chelsea and Everton WINS (24/24)
The most disputed result was: Norwich vs Swansea (9-8-7 split)

Highest odds: er, Me, with a slightly audacious 16, 570/1
Lowest odds: Doron, 2228/1. It's apocalyptic.
Average odds: 5732/1

Best predictor: Gaj Thiru, with a storming 9/10. Bloody Cardiff.
Worst Predictors: er, Me (shocking, I know), Richard Verber and Tarek Najm (3/10)
Average score: 5.54/10

Best predicted results: Chelsea & Everton WINS (24/24)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool WIN (3/24)

Everyone's results:




The leaderboard:


The not-at-all-competitive Menachem Grunewald joins David Dinkin in being better than any of our statistical models. Gaj's great score puts him in a position to create a trinity of human success stories. Lawro for a second year running, puts many to shame. The usual suspects are located down the bottom, with no real major changes there. And yes, Nick, your score includes that other week.

There are a lot of games coming up in a short period, and I'm starting a batch of night shifts very shortly. So, I'll post the weekend fixtures now, followed by a new post on Monday for the Boxing Day fixtures, next weekend's fixtures & New Year's fixtures.

There will certainly not be any results posts in that time, but I'll catch up the first week of January. Speaking of which, there will be a cash FA Cup game again, as before. Details to follow, but it'd be great to have even more entrants than last year.

To this week's predos:

Liverpool vs Cardiff - LIVERPOOL
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Fulham vs Man City - MAN CITY
Man Utd vs West Ham - MAN UTD
Stoke vs Aston Villa - DRAW
Sunderland vs Norwich - SUNDERLAND
WBA vs Hull - DRAW
Southampton vs Spurs - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Everton - EVERTON
Arsenal vs Chelsea - ARSENAL

Total odds: 1650/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck all, and have a great festive footy season.

Thursday 12 December 2013

Matchday 16 Predos & a Mega results Catch Up

UPDATED beginning:

No preamble. Apologies for the wait.

Matchday 13

This week, 25 people played
The most popular predicted result was Liverpool WIN (25/25)
The most disputed result was Norwich vs Palace & West Ham vs Fulham (10-12-3 & 12-10-3 respectively)

The highest odds were: 3165/1 (Tarek Najm)
The lowest odds were: 1025/1 (Steven Daniels)
Average odds: 1833/1

Best predictor:  David Dinkin & Nick Collins (8/10)
Worst predictor: A lot of people. Al on 5/10. See below
Average Score: 5.92/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (24/25)
Worst predicted result: Hull WIN (0/25)

Everyone's scores:


Matchday 14

This week, 23 people played
The most popular predicted results were Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (23/23)
The most disputed result was Stoke vs Cardiff (9-8-6 split)

The highest odds were: 5389/1 (Josh Daniels)
The lowest odds were: 1848/1 (Steven Daniels)
Average odds: 3131/1

Best predictor: Me, David Dinkin & Andrew Feneley (7/10)
Worst predictor: Will O'Doherty, Jonny Chernick, Eli Daniels, Steven Daniels and Doron Salomon (4/10)
Average Score: 5.43/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (23/23)
Worst predicted result: Palace & Villa WINS (1/23 - congrats to Charlie & Tarek there)

Everyone's scores:


Matchday 15

This week, 14 people played
The most popular predicted result was Liverpool (14/14)
The most disputed result was Fulham vs Aston Villa (6-5-3 split)

The highest odds were: Doron Salomon 3032/1
The lowest odds were: Will O'Doherty 1819/1
Average odds: 2352/1

Best predictor: David Dinkin (5/10 - 3/3 - chapeu monsieur)
Worst predictor: Me, Whoscored.com, Will O'Doherty, Josh Gaon, Sam Ruback & Doron Salomon (2/10)
Average Score: 3/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (14/14)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle & Stoke WINS (0/14)

Everyone's scores:


To the leaderboard, and vast changes as one would expect after 20% of games without a new one being produced.





So Dinkin's superb run of form, (potentially combined with FinkTank missing out on a week) sees him zoom to the top with a solid margin. What's striking about this season, compared to others, is the number of people scoring >5.00 as an average. Unfortunately, the group at the bottom are starting to be cut adrift from those in the middle, although, with more than half the season to still be played, there's a lot that can change.

To this week's predictions:

Man City vs Arsenal - DRAW
Cardiff vs WBA - WBA
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - CHELSEA
Everton vs Fulham - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Southampton - NEWCASTLE
West Ham vs Sunderland - SUNDERLAND
Hull vs Stoke - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Man Utd - DRAW
Norwich vs Swansea - SWANSEA
Spurs vs Liverpool - DRAW

Total odds: 16, 570/1 (er....yeah)

Good luck guys

Thursday 5 December 2013

Matchday 15 Predos

So just the quick post from me, and I'll catch up results over the weekend.

Predos for this weekend:

Man Utd vs Newcastle - DRAW
Crystal Palace vs Cardiff - PALACE
Liverpool vs West Ham - LIVERPOOL
Southampton vs Man City - CITY
Stoke vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Sunderland vs Spurs - DRAW
Fulham vs Aston Villa - VILLA
Arsenal vs Everton - ARSENAL
Swansea vs Hull - SWANSEA

Total odds: 2101/1 (PaddyPower)

Good Luck guys


Thursday 28 November 2013

Matchday 12 Results, a double blog and the season is 1/3 through

For the first time in 3 years, I've got writers' block. I've sat and written this first line, then deleted and rewritten it a fair few times now. Fortunately, I could always write about having writers' block since it's the first time, but then I figured I'd just babble on for a bit game by game.

The Merseyside derby was a typically intense matchup for that part of the world. Lukaku could have had a hat-trick, Allen finished a gaping chance like I would and Mirallas got his revenge on Suarez. Artur Boruc then proceeded to show off his silkiest of silky skills (bit like I'd have done) and Palace showed a bit of fight as a parting gift to Millen. The Newcastle renaissance continues, whilst Chelsea had their first routine win for quite a while. Man City were irrepressible (whilst Spurs were rather poor) and Cardiff showed Utd-esque fighting spirit to gain a point at the death. Finally, I don't really know much about what happened at WBA, but by all accounts, Long scored a nice goal.

Easy. Opening paragraph waffled through, let's get statty.

This week, 23 people played
The most predicted result was Chelsea WIN (22/23)
The most disputed game was Everton vs Liverpool (7-7-9)

The highest odds were from me, 7157/1
The lowest odds were from Stevie D, 3500/1
Average odds: 4724/1

The best predictors were Dinkin, Chernick, Charlie and JT (7/10)
The worst predictors were Yanik & Adrian (3/10)
The average score was 5.22

The best predicted result was  Chelsea WIN (22/23)
The worst predicted result was Crystal Palace WIN (0/23)

Everyone's results:




To the leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 of available weeks, or 9/12.


Without giving massive commentary, I'm astounded by just how consistent the Fink Tank model is. One 3, and every other week has been 5-7. Superb stuff from the Times pundit and his intepid band of statisticians.

To this week's predos:

Aston Villa vs Sunderland - DRAW
Cardiff vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Everton vs Stoke - EVERTON
Norwich vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
West Ham vs Fulham - FULHAM
Newcastle vs WBA - NEWCASTLE
Spurs vs Man Utd - DRAW
Hull vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Chelsea vs Southampton - CHELSEA
Man City vs Swansea - MAN CITY

Total odds: 2761/1 (PaddyPower)

and the midweek games:

Crystal Palace vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Arsenal vs Hull - ARSENAL
Liverpool vs Norwich - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Everton - DRAW
Southampton vs Aston Villa - SOUTHAMPTON
Stoke vs Cardiff - DRAW
Sunderland vs Chelsea - CHE;SEA
Swansea vs Newcastle - SWANSEA
Fulham vs Spurs - SPURS
WBA vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: To be updated when the predos are there after the weekend games.

Feel free to give me both sets of predos straight away if you'd rather. Good luck folks.

Thursday 21 November 2013

Matchday 11 Results & Matchday 12 Predos

Gonna jump straight into it this week with a phenomenal stat from last week.

5/22, or 23% went for a Man Utd home win.

I'm not sure that we've ever had a stat like that in the last 3 years (it'd be easy to check, but I don't want to ruin the Disney-like magic), including for games involving Chelsea or Man City. There was always a feeling that United at Old Trafford were always at least value for a draw, and more often than not, a win. It just jumped out at me as Impossibilitee's own way of showing the Moyes effect.

And yes, I'm more than aware that they did win. However, it's the perception that's interesting. I was working last weekend, so didn't see the game. I did however, discharge a patient who was a Man Utd fan on the grounds that if he was well enough to mock me after full time, he was well enough to go home. He hasn't returned, so I was either right, or very wrong.

(Career saving bit: If anyone from the GMC reads this blog, that last bit was a joke. Thanks for stopping by.)

It was actually a strange round of matches - I'd like to say one for the underdogs, except they were all strangely predictable. Man United are still Man United. Sunderland seem to have this hoodoo over Man City, WBA are in good nick (and would have won were it not for a horrific penalty decision) and Spurs' profligacy was punished by a keeper in sublime form. The only real shock for me was Palace holding Everton, and again, with absolutely zero in-depth knowledge of the game, I'm ascribing that to 'dead-cat bounce'.

What it did mean, however, was a round of low scores, and a happy bookmaker or two.

Let's get statty:

This week, 22 people played
The most predicted results were Liverpool and Chelsea WINS (22/22)
The most disputed result was Man United vs Arsenal (5-9-8 split)

The highest odds were from Steven Daniels (4075/1)
The lowest were from Doron Salomon (Madre mia, time to cash in the life insurance....428/1)

(Insurance premium saving bit: that last bit was a joke. Thanks for stopping by.)

The best predictors were Tarek Najm, EuroClubIndex and Fink Tank with 5/10
The worst predictors were (deep breath) Me, WhoScored.Com, Gaj Thiru, Adrian Daniels, Nick Collins, Steven Daniels & Josh Daniels (a proud weekend for my family).

The best predicted result was Liverpool WIN (22/22)
The worst predicted results were Sunderland and Newcastle WINS and the DRAW between Chelsea and WBA (0/22)

Everyone's results:



To the leaderboard, for those who have played 8/11 weeks.



This week's predos:

Everton vs Liverpool - EVERTON
Arsenal vs Southampton - ARSENAL
Fulham vs Swansea - SWANSEA
Hull vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Newcastle vs Norwich - NEWCASTLE
Stoke vs Sunderland - DRAW
West Ham vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man City vs Spurs - DRAW
Cardiff vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
WBA vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA

Total odds: 7157/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck chaps, see you next week

Tuesday 5 November 2013

The Big Results Post & Matchday 11 Predictions

As promised, a rather large post of results from the last 3 weeks. A fair amount to get through, and the lack of major talking points from last weekend allows me to crack straight on.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 8

This week, 26 people played.
The most popular predicted results were Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (26/26)
The most disputed result was Crystal Palace vs Fulham (9-8-9 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon (3330/1)
Lowest odds: Me (349/1)
Average odds: 1,243/1

Best predictor:  Adrian Daniels (8/10)
Worst predictor: Me, James Tobias, Josh Gaon and WhoScored.com (4/10)
Average score: 5.62/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (26/26)
Worst predicted result: Everton vs Hull DRAW (1/26 - well done Dr Feneley)

Everyone's scores:





Matchday 9

This week, 22 people played.
The most popular predicted results were Arsenal, Manchester United & Spurs WINS (22/22)
The most disputed result was Chelsea vs Man City (11-8-3 split)

Highest odds: Doron (obviously) 2102/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback, 357/1
Average odds: 912/1

Best predictor: Steven Daniels (9/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (4/10)
Average score: 6.59/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal, Manchester United & Spurs WINS (22/22)
Worst predicted results: Sunderland WIN (1/22 - well done Doron)

Everyone's scores:



Matchday 10

This week, 23 people played.
The most popular predicted results were Chelsea, Man United & Man City WINS (22/23)
The most disputed result was Everton vs Spurs (10-8-5 split)

Highest odds: Sam Ruback, 3745/1
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels, 1700/1
Average odds: 2657/1

Best predictor: Me & Steven Daniels (7/10)
Worst predictor: Will O'Doherty, Jonny Chernick, Yanik Joshi and Charlie Rawson (3/10)
Average score: 5.04/10

Best predicted results: Manchesters United & City WINS (22/23)
Worst predicted results: Newcastle WIN (0/23)

Everyone's scores:


And now to an updated leaderboard, showing those who have played >2/3 of available weeks, or 7 of 10:


The first thing to note is that (albeit, with nearly 3/4 of the season to play), the scores are higher than in previous years across the board. Are we improving as a cohort, or is the league more predictable? Or have the vagaries of the fixture calendar produced a start to the season disproportionately easy to call?

The pros have the lead, along with our most 'tactile' player, Eli. Last year's biggest winners from a general perspective are sat near the bottom, with FA Cup champion Josh Gaon mimicking his real life counterparts in taking his eye off the league competition.

Still relatively early days however, and plenty of movement to occur; that much is certain.

To this week's predictions:

Aston Villa vs Cardiff - CARDIFF
Chelsea vs WBA -CHELSEA
Crystal Palace vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs Fulham - LIVERPOOL
Southampton vs Hull - SOUTHAMPTON
Norwich vs West Ham - DRAW
Spurs vs Newcastle - DRAW
Sunderland vs Man City - MAN CITY
Man Utd vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Swansea vs Stoke - SWANSEA

Total odds: 1722/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys

Thursday 31 October 2013

Matchday 10: I need a system

Folks, I'm failing you. Clearly, the pressures of being a normal working human and writing a blog on time are more than I can cope with and it's not good enough. I owe you all an apology, and I'm going to put my head down and come up with a new system so results don't back up like this.

The current masterplan is to go to biweekly blogs, that are shorter, so can be slotted in to my routine easier. That's the plan for next week, where I'll blog early in the week with all the results that have built up, and hopefully this week's too.

Until that point however, here are this week's predictions:

Newcastle vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Fulham vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Hull vs Sunderland - HULL
Man City vs Norwich - MAN CITY
Stoke vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
WBA vs Crystal Palace - WBA
West Ham vs Aston Villa - DRAW
Arsenal vs Liverpool - ARSENAL
Everton vs Spurs - DRAW
Cardiff vs Swansea - DRAW

Total odds to be updated

Good luck guys, and check back early next week for the results

Thursday 24 October 2013

Matchday 9: *insert clever title*

Just a quick post here because I'm shortly off to the world of Puskas, Kiraly's baggy grey trackies and unpronounceable football teams, so won't be putting up last week's results just yet.

They will be up as soon as possible however.

This week's predictions however, are as follows:

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Stoke - MAN UTD
Norwich vs Cardiff - DRAW
Southampton vs Fulham - SOUTHAMPTON
Sunderland vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Chelsea vs Man City - DRAW
Swansea vs West Ham - SWANSEA
Spurs vs Hull - SPURS

Total odds: 635/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!





Thursday 17 October 2013

The Big Results Catch Up & Matchday 8 Predos

I wanted to write last week with my thoughts on Jack Wilshere's opinion of who should be eligible to play for England, and the response from Kevin Pietersen (not a tiff, as the standard sensationalists would have you believe). Nationality is a complex topic, and one that will never be given a fair hearing when the following 3 things combine: 140 character limits, a press looking to create trouble (trouble = sales/clicks) and an inarticulate interviewee. However, given that the whole topic happened over a week ago, and there have been 2 batches of football matches in between, it would seem rather like going over old ground for no real reason other than I'd previously planned to. So I won't.

Even more spaces on the as-yet-unpuclished World Cup 2014 wallchart were filled in this week with the completion of most of the regional qualifying groups. I'm sure we'll be having a World Cup tournament here during the summer - something a little more rigorous than the sweepstake that saw Mexico lose me £20 at the last World Cup. Congrats to Bosnia & Hercegovina on qualifying for their first ever World Cup as an independent nation - Dzeko aside, I know nothing of their team, but they do a lovely range of flavoured local liqueurs if that's your thing. Their coffee is awful though. Travel tips the impossibilitee way...

This will be long enough post without further waffle, but it would be amiss not to mention England. For all the talk of Roy's pragmatism, it was yet another unbeaten qualification campaign and they scored more than double the number of goals Spain scored (having played 2 games more) - there is no chance that England will win in Brazil, but they won't lose every game 5-0 either. They are a solid knockout stage team, and the luck of the draw as much as anything else will determine whether it's a QF year, or whether they can join the pantheon of greats (nostalgic SF defeats in 1990 and 1996, stirring backing tracks, decades of crappy magazine footy shows on Sky1 with minor celebs talking about their memories of the campaign...on second thoughts...maybe qualifying wasn't so great after all...)

Enough...let's get statty:

Matchday 6:

This week, 26 people played
Most predicted result: Man United WIN (25/26)
Most disputed result: Hull vs West Ham (13-6-7 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (6604/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (929/1)
Average odds: 2370/1

Best predictor: Me and Steven Daniels (7/10). Yes, Collins, I know before you start...
Worst predictor: Winters, Daniel Wigman, Menachem Grunewald & Charlie Rawson (3/10)
Average score: 4.42/10

Best predicted result:  Southampton & Liverpool WINS (22/26)
Worst predicted result: Aston Villa WIN (0/26)

Everyone's results:



Matchday7:

This week, 24 people played
Most predicted result: Liverpool WIN (24/24)
Most disputed result: Fulham vs Stoke (10-9-5 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels with a farcical 21,988/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 680/1
Average odds: 5819/1 (3125 if the anomalies are discounted)

Best predictor: Lawro with a stonking 9/10 - only West Ham's win at White Hart Lane denied him!
Worst predictor: Feneley with a stinking 2/10
Average score: 5.21/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIn (24/24)
Worst predicted result: West Ham WIN (1/24 - well done to whoscored.com)

Everyone's results:


And now to the leaderboard, and as always, only those who have played >2/3 of weeks (or 5/7) are eligible. At this stage of the season, there are big movers every week, and Gaj is a prime example, dropping from the top to mid-table in just a couple of weeks. Still early days yet, however.


To this week's predictions:

Newcastle vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Arsenal vs Norwich - ARSENAL
Chelsea vs Cardiff - CHELSEA
Everton vs Hull - EVERTON
Man Utd vs Southampton - MAN UTD
Stoke vs WBA - WBA
Swansea vs Sunderland - SWANSEA
West Ham vs Man City - MAN CITY
Aston Villa vs Spurs - DRAW
Crystal Palace vs Fulham - CRYSTAL PALACE

Total odds: 349/1 (PaddyPower)

That's your lot folks, good luck!



Friday 4 October 2013

Matchday 7 Predictions - To Be Updated with Other stuff

This blog is going to just be a place-holder I'm afraid for now. I'm currently working a week on nights, and this leaves very little time for anything else - including sleeping unfortunately. So I'll just give the predictions now, and catch up with the results when I return to normal.

This week, my predictions are:

Man City vs Everton - MAN CITY
Cardiff vs Newcastle - DRAW
Fulham vs Stoke - STOKE
Hull vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace - LIVERPOOL
Sunderland vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Norwich vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Southampton vs Swansea - DRAW
Spurs vs West Ham - DRAW
WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Total odds: 4,008/1 (PaddyPower)

It's 2.40 in the morning and I've just been called back. Check back tomorrow or over the weekend for last week's results

Good luck!

Wednesday 25 September 2013

Matchday 6: Month 2 comes to a close

Friends, recently my life has taken a turn for the worst. Self-inflicted, undeniably but nevertheless, my sanity is being gradually eroded as a result of action I've recently taken.

I now listen to TalkSport in the car.

What an utter crock of 6 different types of farmyard manure, left to ferment and stew under an equatorial sun (obviously covered, or else it'd just dry out and your could use it for fuel or building houses or whatever, and I'm definitely not driving at it being a useful, innovative byproduct of life where resources are scarce. I digress).

Alan Brazil and whichever moron he's persuaded to roll out of bed that morning jabbering with inane cliches, with as much insight into a modern, professional game (instead of his dinosaur era 'bite-yer-legs' playing days) get me going before I've even got to work. It says a lot about you when Neil Warnock (FFS!!!!) is the most sane man on your show. But he's essentially harmless. The standard, better-in-our-day old pro struggling to retain the limelight. It's a shame they can't all be like gents of the game such as (former colleague) John Radford or (former Impossibilitee player, I should really give him a call) Sir Bobby Charlton, but such is life. However, he's nothing compared to the gobshite who ruins my commute home.

Adrian Durham. Clown Prince of c***** (my mother may well read this blog). A vicious little bugger if there ever was one, who together with the probably-not-racist-but-would-probably-at-least-entertain-the-BNP-canvasser-for-10-minutes-or-so-on-the-doorstep-and-may-offer-him-a-biscuit Darren Gough produce some of the most vapid, hypocritical broadcasting available in any country in the world. Thanks to TuneIn Radio (plug, sponsorship please), I've actually checked. 

Durham can never be wrong - when callers point out the errors in his warped logic, he verbally assaults them into submission with a mixture of low-grade insults and informing the caller that the verbatim quotation provided from 10 minutes earlier was never uttered by him at any point, ever. He'll have a bash at anyone and anything because it'll give him an extra 5 minutes of content, with no joined up thinking to a theory espoused earlier. He's a school bully, and part of me wants to call in and let rip, and most of me doesn't want to give him the satisfaction of getting a rise. So, I've ranted here, 'cos it's my blog and I want to; and otherwise I'd have to discuss the football and nothing major happened last week.

And I know I could switch to a different channel, but after experimenting I've come to the conclusion that they're all rubbish/repetitive and at least they choose new topics to be imbecilic about daily.

PS. Stan Collymore actually talks some sense, if occasionally a little communisty for my liking. Matt Holland's not terrible either, but just gets shouted down. 

PPS. Brendan Rogers should keep quiet. David Moyes should buy a Fergie mask and coat before training tomorrow so as to fool his squad into playing like the old days. Spurs are jammy, but deserved and Mouinho's a cock. And I know it's only 5 games in but whatever - we are top of the league, say we are top of the league!

Just be glad I didn't put an umlaut on every single 'o' in this piece.

Let's get statty:

This week, 26 people played
Most predicted result: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (26/26)
Most disputed result: Norwich vs Aston Villa (7-9-9 split, one no result)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 7040/1
Lowest odds: Will O' Doherty 1125/1
Average odds: 3458/1

Best predictor: Me, EuroClubIndex, Fink Tank, Yanik Joshi, Eli Daniels & Nathan Daniels (7/10)
Worst predictor: Nick Collins (2/10)
Average score: 5.35/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (26/26)
Worst predicted result: Southampton & Hull WINS (0/26)

Everyone's results:




To the leaderboard, and as always only those who have played >2/3 of games (or 4/5 so far) are eligible:



As one would expect, still pretty congested and at this stage, a couple of extreme results can cause major changes to the leaderboard.

This week's predictions:

Spurs vs Chelsea - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Man City - MAN CITY
Fulham vs Cardiff - CARDIFF
Hull vs West Ham - HULL
Man Utd vs WBA - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Palace - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Stoke vs Norwich - DRAW
Sunderland vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Everton vs Newcastle - EVERTON

Total odds: 1715/1 (PaddyPower)

Final order of business - This is the last set of predictions in September and therefore the last opportunity to enter the pay game. Thanks to those who have already paid their entrance fee, and those who have indicated a willingness to me - I'll chase you up once I know everyone who is in. If you haven't yet done so, please indicate with your predictions this week if you're keen and I'll chase you next week.

Good luck guys.

Tuesday 17 September 2013

Matchday 4 Results & Matchday 5 Predos: Ain't nobody perfect

So the first fixtures after the transfer window shut have left an interesting shadow behind - the 2 Merseyside clubs are the only teams to remain undefeated, with Liverpool failing to win for the first time this season. Chelsea hammered away at Goodison, but Naismith's success where Eto'o had previously failed made Mou appear pretty helpless on the touchline.

Özil required 10 minutes to make his first impact in English football before Ramsey secured the points, compounding Atkinson's sole error in not playing on (for me, how you could penalise Sagna or Altidore against the other when they were both grappling in the same, illegal way - and as for a red card....do me a favour, it's quite clearly not a DOGSO when the 'foul' occurs). Eriksen looked sik tings at the Lane, and Gylfi obviously finally managed to swing back via Reading to collect his shooting boots. Ashley Young got his first dive of the season under his belt, then succumbed to gravity rather quickly a few minutes later - a foul was fair, but the decision to give a penalty was poor. The game, however will be remembered, for an outstandingly terrible bit of headgear from Rooney - could Cech not have lent him his scrum cap? City continue there remarkably average start to the season, whilst Newcastle seem to have got stronger by doing literally nothing. The promoted sides were understandably favourites to go down at the start of the season - and don't seem to be doing much to alter that opinion. Finally - I had a feeling Southampton vs West Ham would be one of those cracking games between similarly matched clubs. God I was wrong.

Let's get statty:

This week, 28 people played
The most popular result was Man Utd WIN (28/28)
The most disputed result was Hull vs Cardiff (8-11-9 split)

The highest odds were from Tarek Najm (4740/1)
The lowest odds were from Dan Grabiner (541/1)
Average odds: 2392/1

Best predictor: Tarek (7/10)
Worst predictors: EuroClubIndex, Fink Tank, Will O Doherty, Nathan Daniels & Sam Ruback
Average score: 4.43/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (28/28)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle & Everton WINS (1/28 - congrats Tarek & Doron)

Everyone's results:




Now the leaderboard (updated to include Yanik's results from M3, sorry...)


Possibly the most people we've ever had on a leaderboard - thought very early days still!

Another reminder too about the pay game - thanks to those who've already paid - but a few more makes the pot even larger! Let me know if you're in and we'll sort the payment out.

To this week's predictions:

Norwich vs Aston Villa
Liverpool vs Southampton
Newcastle vs Hull
WBA vs Sunderland
West Ham vs Everton
Chelsea vs Fulham
Arsenal vs Stoke
Crystal Palace vs Swansea
Cardiff vs Spurs
Man City vs Man Utd

I'll be filling mine out later in the week.

Good luck as always.

Wednesday 11 September 2013

Matchday 3 Results, the first leaderboard of the season and Matchday 4 Predos

It's been 2 weeks since I last put digital ink to virtual paper, and we have all learnt much during this time. I'd wager that the red half of North London have now all learnt the keyboard shortcut for 'ö' for their own computer (alt +0246 for windows, folks), I reckon that most have learnt that TalkSport really is a load of old camel knackers, and I personally have learnt that the internet ain't what it used to be.

There were plenty of  occasions last year where I left the data entry until I came to write the blog. Painstakingly, I trawled through the twitter feed of Collywobbles, or searched through BBC archives for the correct week of Lawro's predictions. This year, however, little joy is to be found - due to my own tardiness, there are significantly fewer 'experts' in last week's results than usual. The lesson has been learned - from now, those passive players will be canvassed in a timely fashion.

That said - I think they did well out of this one. I'm not entirely sure what's going on this season, but a fair few of us are struggling to get out of our strides. A few weeks into the season, and the creaking predictions of pre-season must, surely, now be oiled out. Pretty please? 'cos I'm not sure I can take another week's abysmal score.

Let's get statty:

This week, 22 players played
The most popular predicted results were West Ham & Man City WINS (21/22)
The most disputed result was WBA vs Swansea (8-8-6 split)

The highest odds were Jonny Chernick (7616/1)
The lowest odds were Sam Ruback (2008/1)
The average odds were 4158/1

The best predictors were Eli Daniels & Lawro (6/9)
The worst predictor was Daniel Wigman & Dan Grabiner (1/9)
Average score this week: 3.45/9

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (21/22)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (0/22)

Everyone's results:




And, as promised, the first leaderboard of the season. As always, to qualify for the leaderboard, you have to have participated in >2/3 of available matchdays - or this week, in all 3 weeks.



Very good start for last season's whipping boys, Jonny & Tarek. I've got my customary slow start, but as all good Liverpool fans know, this year could be our (my) year.

This week's predictions are as follows:

Man Utd vs Crystal Palace - MAN UTD
Aston Villa vs Newcastle - ASTON VILLA
Fulham vs WBA - DRAW
Hull vs Cardiff - CARDIFF
Stoke vs Man City - MAN CITY
Sunderland vs Arsenal - ÖRSENAL
Spurs vs Norwich - SPURS
Everton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Southampton vs West Ham - DRAW
Swansea vs Liverpool - DRAW

Total odds: 2652/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys, and normal service will be resumed next week (experts are already in the database!)

Thursday 29 August 2013

Matchday 2 results and Matchday 3 predos: Overshadowed by the Transfer window

Arsene Wenger, amongst others, is a strong proponent of the transfer window closing prior to the start of the new season. His reasoning is that it makes for a fairer league if the team you potentially play in August as the same you could play in October. I think that point's a fair one, however, there is another darned annoying side effect of the transfer window overlapping the football season - the back pages, news broadcasts and internet ignores the actual football - you know, the thing that makes it all tick - to focus on the transfer stories. The carriage is very much driving the horse for this portion of the season and it's rather annoying. Writing this blog, I should have filled my head with Cardiff stunning City, with Moyes' first real test, with Arsenal shrugging off the crisis headlines, or with Liverpool's continued inability to finish off minnows efficiently.

Instead, I've just spent an hour listening to AVB say essentially nothing about a story that has hardly progressed in 2 months. I'm so incredibly bored of the constant need to have a saga or 3 in the papers, year in year out. This summer, we've had Rooney, Suarez and Bale. In previous years, Van Persie, Tevez, Gerrard, Fabregas and many more have had their columns in the sun (mixed-metaphor pun semi-intended). The silly season gets going from April, runs through to September, then goes again from November through to February. Ceaseless prattle, and I've just added to the babbling by writing 2 paragraphs about nothing.

In short, I no longer care whether Bale stays or goes (even though it would be clearly beneficial to my own team were he to start having tortilla espanola regularly for breakfast) or if Rooney kisses the backside of Moyes or Mourinho next week - frankly, I would just like to wake up next week and have the discussion dominated by events on the pitch, not this summer's most tedious of transfers.

*gets off soapbox*

Cardiff eh? That screwed us all. Let's get statty:

This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted result: Everton WIN (28/29)
Most disputed result: Man Utd vs Chelsea (9-13-7 split)

Highest odds: Jonathan Chernick 8403/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback again, 760/1
Average odds: 4395/1

Best predictor: Chernick with a cracking 8/10! Unlucky!
Worst predictors: Yanik Joshi & Joe Miller (1/10)
Average score: 4.07/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (24/29)
Worst predicted result: Cardiff WIN (0/29)

Everyone's results:


Leaderboard to follow after the weekend.

This week's predictions:

Man City vs Hull - MAN CITY
Cardiff vs Everton - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Fulham - DRAW
Norwich vs Southampton - DRAW
West Ham vs Stoke - WEST HAM
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland - SUNDERLAND
Liverpool vs Man Utd - DRAW
WBA vs Swansea - DRAW
Arsenal vs Spurs - ARSENAL

Total odds: 3775/1 (PaddyPower)

Only the 9 matches this week as Cheslea played Villa last week.

So just 2 orders of business before I let you get on with your day:

The first is that there is still time to enter for the pay game - either use paypal (£10 to ccdaniels65@gmail.com)  or contact me and I'll sort out a different method of payment.

The second is that I'm looking to give the site a bit of an overhaul and so, if you are a website designery type, or know someone who is, please get in touch!

Have a good week guys, and the first leaderboard of the new season will be published in next week's blog!

Thursday 22 August 2013

Matchday 2: Playing catch up already

As previous players know, on occasion, this blog goes out without a coat on, or shoes, or one time underpants, and has to scuttle back inside for a quick costume change in the hope no-one has noticed.

Well not today - I'm standing there proud [this is taking a turn for the weird - Ed] and delivering a half-cooked post for this matchday. I've been working on call since the last post, and so my time for anything has been severely limited by the insane workload that can be generated in a week.

I've seen precisely 3 gifs of football in the last week, which is nowhere near enough for me to feel that the season has begun/write something here about the opening day.

So please, accept this page as a placeholder, and tomorrow, I'll trawl the depths of the internet to fill in all the scores/results from last week and do a proper blog post.

Update: RESULTS FROM MATCHDAY 1

Last week's stats:

31 people played
Most predicted result: Chelsea WIN (31/31)
Most disputed result: Norwich vs Everton (11-9-11 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 3316/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 516/1
Average odds: 1300/1

Best predictor: Stan Collymore (8/10)
Worst predictor: Ryan Wain & Tarek Najm (4/10)
Average score: 5.74/10

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (31/31)
Worst predicted result: Aston Villa WIN (0/31)

Everyone's results:



'Cos I'm a traditionalist, no leaderboard until after Matchday 3.

As you were....

This week's predictions:

Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Everton vs WBA - EVERTON
Hull vs Norwich - NORWICH
Newcastle vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Southampton vs Sunderland - SOUTHAMPTON
Stoke vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Liverpool - DRAW
Cardiff vs Man City - MAN CITY
Spurs vs Swansea - SPURS
Man Utd vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Total odds: 4810/1 (Paddypower)

Finally, just a reminder for those who want to try their hand at winning some actual cash, send me your stakes either through paypal or contact me directly for other methods. Had a few so far, but the more who play, the bigger the pot.

Good luck guys, stats to follow tomorrow

Thursday 15 August 2013

Season 3, Matchday 1: Here we go!

The time is upon us.

All around the country, fantasy football teams have been submitted, replica shirts are being taken out the packaging and food wholesalers are emptying their shelves of soft buns, plastic cheese slices and those ridiculously large condiment bottles that I'm pretty sure can last an entire season. Programmes are being printed and the first hybrid scarves are making their way from China to a Premier League ground near you.

A quick reminder of how to play for those new to us, or with an inability to remember details after a 3 months hiatus:

Before every matchday (7+ games, too few skew the stats), the fixtures will go up here. Just copy & paste the fixture list into a comment and put the result next to the fixture. You have 3 choices: Home win, Draw or Away win.

ie Arsenal vs Aston Villa - ARSENAL
    Cardiff vs Chelsea - DRAW

and so on.

If you place accumulator bets with the bookmaker of your choice, then let us know the total odds.

That's basically it! All you have to do is remember to check the blog every week, and I'll always try and send reminders via facebook, twitter or text to those I can contact.

I do a bit of basic stattery each week and then a league table is produced, showing giving the best and worst average predictors. To qualify for the leaderboard, you have to play >2/3 of Matchdays; this is to prevent someone scoring a 9 on their first week and then not playing again to protect their average. At the end of the season, the winner gets their name added to the soon-to-be world famous Impossibilitee Trophy, unveiled for the first time, below!



Ooooh shiny!

This year, there is also a financial element for those who wish to get involved in a bit of serious competition. It will cost you £10 to play, with cash prizes for the top 3 players. You'll all still be in the same leaderboard, but have an asterisk next to your name (ie RD*).

The more people who play, the bigger the prize pot and therefore the more money given out as prizes, like the lottery. In the FA Cup game last year, we looked at 70% for the Winner, 20% for the runner up and 10% for 3rd place, and chances are it'll be something similar this year.

To enter, please either contact me directly (ccdaniels65@gmail.com, @ccdaniels65) and we can discuss what's the best method for you or pay through Paypal  with the gmail address above.

As I appreciate there are plenty of people on holiday, I'll accept new paying entrants until the end of September. As it's a seasonal average, there will be no handicapping. To clarify, this is totally optional - you are welcome to play and not pay if you'd prefer, it's just to increase the competition between those who are that way inclined.

We also have a few ideas under the hat, and a couple more up the sleeve here at Chateau Impossibilitee. There's even one idea hiding in a very embarrassing place, but that's enough of that. What we do want to do is expand in a direction that's going to retain the sense of community and fun that's here so from time to time, there'll be a poll where we canvass opinion or try and get some information to think about future direction. The first such poll is on the right, and if you'd be kind enough to quickly fill it in (you can select multiple options) that'd be awesome!

Any questions, please get in touch or leave a comment below.

Right, enough housekeeping, to the opening fixtures!

Liverpool vs Stoke - DRAW
Arsenal vs Aston Villa - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Everton - DRAW
Sunderland vs Fulham - SUNDERLAND
WBA vs Southampton - WBA
West Ham vs Cardiff - WEST HAM
Swansea vs Man Utd - DRAW
Crystal Palace vs Spurs - SPURS
Chelsea vs Hull - CHELSEA
Man City vs Newcastle - MAN CITY

Total odds: 2063/1 (Paddypower)

So that's that.

Good luck guys, hoping loads of you sign up to the paying game, and that you all bring a few mates, colleagues, family members along to create a bit of local competition too! Wherever you'll be watching from this weekend, hope results go your team's way (unless they conflict with my team, in which case I hope you lose 6-0). Have a great weekend!




Thursday 8 August 2013

Season 3: Starting to feel like part of the furniture

Welcome back one and all, seasoned predictors, new chancers and those who have promised me that this year is the year they get involved!

So that whole "check back next week" thing never really happened. I'm sorry about that - I raised your hopes unacceptably and will never forgive myself. Essentially, it's been rather a busy summer for me professionally and personally (though not footballistically, which is very kind of Arsene Wenger. I'm sure that's why we've been so tumbleweedy in the transfer market), and I just haven't really had the time to pull the graphs together. This does mean that I have a reason to blog during the international weekends though! So hurrah for my chaotic summer!

What else is new?

Well, this season, I'll be adding the predictions of the statistical model the Fink Tank from the Times, and hoping to prove that the mathematical, analytical approach defeats the pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey stylings of Mark Lawrenson et al.

I've also gone and done what I've been promising to do for about 18 months and invested in a solid silver trophy for the victor. Even got the previous winners engraved on it and all - oooooooh. Obviously, logistically, it's more difficult to share the trophy round future winners, but I'll have a think about that one. Pictures of the sexiest silverware in soccer on next week's blog to get the juices flowing ahead of the first set of predictions for the new season.

The final change to this year's competition is a follow up to the success of the FA Cup game from last year. An OPTIONAL £10 entry fee can be paid for this year's Premier League competition, with cash prizes for the highest scoring players at the end of the season. Obviously, the amount of prize money will depend on how many players pay as with the FA Cup game - but going with the same numbers, that could be roughly £100 to the winner!

It is entirely up to you whether to pay or not - you are welcome to submit your predictions as before and you'll still be eligible for the main trophy and leaderboards as before - consider this a sidepot in poker - just a separate game, with only those who pay able to win the money.

As always, spread the word - it'd be great to average 30-40 people a week this season! I'm sure you all have at least 1 mate who thinks they know all about football. Tell them to put their money/reputation where their mouth is and compete against the pros and the rest of us!

Week 1 predictions will be up after the Community Shield this weekend, and if you want to participate in the money game this year, let me know via any source, including the comments below and we'll sort out a transfer, either via paypal or a bank transfer.

Excitement is building folks - little over a week until the President throws that ceremonial first pitch!

Thursday 23 May 2013

Season 2 draws to a close: The tension of the final leaderboard & FA Cup game victors

I don't know how you guys feel, but for me, this season, nay, the last 12 months have absolutely flown by. 12 months ago, I wrote this end of season blog worn out from the emotions of the final round of Premier League matches. The Olympics loomed large and a massive year for me (in a personal capacity; I do have a life away from the blog) seemed to be approaching rapidly.

And yet here I am again, with all that lay ahead now resolutely in the past. I feel a detachment from this football season that I haven't felt since 2006/2007, when I last spent a significant chunk of the season away from the UK. Maybe that's why I don't feel this was a classic - a solid, functional Man Utd team set a pace that the brittle contenders could not follow. That's a reference, primarily, I feel to psychological brittleness. It says so much about the professionalism and character of Man Utd (and let's face it, when I say that, I mean their former manager) that they just kept grinding out results even when it became clear that the league title would be theirs and no-one else's. I assume that last season's pain provided sufficient motivation.

Arsenal came out with the North London bragging rights (again), and will be looking to spend their new commercial jackpot to exploit the managerial uncertainty at those above them. For Spurs, this summer's most crucial task will be to keep a hold of their no.11, and only genuine match-winner.

Mid-table has those who had a good half-a-season then coasted a little, and those who it's become rather par for. The incredible bunching, as seen by Norwich's 5 place jump with a final day win shows that none of these teams can afford to stand still less they be dragged down into the relegation mire. I'd argue that was the true drama of this season - a month before the end of the season 7 or 8 teams were theoretically still in danger. Amongst them were the godawful QPR replete with 'Arry's excuses and a Reading team who were entertaining, and if in truth, a team I'm sorry to see go. Wigan's bittersweet conclusion was, I think, the right type of bittersweet.

As for us - well this season saw plenty of new faces, and some excellent performances. I'm planning to write a blog at some point about the year-on-year changes, but as this is long enough, it'll have to wait. The excitement, however, over who has added their name to the cherished Impossibilitee trophy is nearly over.
As a reminder of where we stand, Lawro leads the table by 0.01 from Nick, who is in turn 0.01 ahead of WhoScored.com - it's all very much up for grabs.

For the final time this season, let's get statty:

This week, 20 people played
The most popular predicted results were: Chelsea & Liverpool WINS (20/20)
The most disputed result was: Wigan vs Aston Villa (8-6-6 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 12,724/1
Lowest odds: Me & my copycat father (making a family treble) 240/1
Average odds: 2,373/1

Best predictor: Lawro (7/10)
Worst predictor: Josh Daniels (further proof that the bookies are mainly right) 3/10
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (20/20)
Worst predicted results: Norwich & Fulham WINS & WBA vs Man Utd DRAW (0/20)

Everyone's results


As mentioned above, Lawro went into this weekend with a slender lead, and like the champion that he is (bleurgh, threw up in my mouth), top-scored to consolidate his position. Rivals Whoscored.com and Nick Collins just couldn't perform at the end when the pressure was on, and will have all summer to reflect on a great opportunity missed. Nick, and my dad deserve special mention though for being the only ones to beat/come close to the professional models. Sam Ruback also gets the Clubman award for being ever-present. A true professional amateur. Will O'Doherty makes his leaderboard debut for the season at the death with a respectable mid-table score though there is plenty of flak on the Impossibilitee fan blogs and forums for his half-hearted commitment this season. Must try harder in future. Down at the bottom, Josh Daniels and Doron Salomon show why it's not the best idea to consistently have odds over 10,000/1, although that only makes it worse for Tarek Najm & Jonny Chernick who'll have the close-season cancelled and extra practice scheduled to avoid a repeat of this embarassment next year. All 4 of those players scored below last season's worst score - a new PB (or PW?) for the game.



As before (last season), I've also done a best of the rest table for all those who didn't participate enough to qualify for the main leaderboard.


Danny Hakimian can be proud of a spectacular score, though the challenge of course, is to sustain that form over the course of a season. David Dinkin joined us for the run in and did pretty well - he's an early tip for next season's title. Eli Daniels was the most frequent player of the rest with a very respectable 4.93, and I'd like to highlight Ryan Wain (who seems to have folded under the pressure) who has managed to do worse than last season, although, in fairness, over very few games.

So, the congratulations go to Mark Lawrenson, who also drew much praise this week in an article which was deeply flawed in terms of it's scientific methodology. Nevertheless, he's done better than all of us, and as he gets much abuse for it, credit where credit is due. It does mean that both champions work for the BBC, which is an interesting quirk. Let's see whether it's something they put in the water next year...

To the FA Cup game now,

For the final round, only 12 people played. Boooo
The predictions were split 6-6 for Man City and Wigan

The 6 who got it right: Gaj, Feneley, Tarek, Josh Gaon, Josh Daniels and Nick

Here's a graph showing that:


So to the overall leaderboard - Gaj's success combined with mine and Charlie's failings have given him some extra cash, with Charlie finishing 3rd and me empty handed. Double boo.


If Josh, Gaj and Charlie contact me (ccdaniels65@gmail.com), I'll arrange for their winnings to be transferred to them. Congrats all round

All that remains is for me to thank everyone who took part in the second season of the Premier league game, and in the inaugural FA Cup game. Next season, I hope you all return, bring friends with and be a part of the planned expansion!

Check back next week to see year-on-year reports, and congratulations once again to Manchester United, Wigan Athletic, Swansea City, Mark Lawrenson and Josh Gaon. Have a great summer.

*Fade out to stirring montage with emotion-pulling soundtrack*

Thursday 16 May 2013

Matchday 38: Finals all round

...and now, the end is near (again).

Can't believe that the season is done and dusted (assuming there won't be a 3rd place play-off, which there just won't).

We now are left with just those CL places to play for after Wigan had the ultimate roller-coaster week. Have to say, were I a Wigan fan, that's how I'd have taken it. The memory of the FA Cup triumph beats the sadness of relegation, something they could bounce back from in reasonable time if they don't have too large a fire-sale.

This means that 2 clubs from the North-East with nothing to play for could determine the fates of 2 clubs from North London. You'd have to think that players are professional enough to want to win every game, or failing that, greedy enough to want every win bonus. However, it's difficult to to motivate yourself for that 50/50, or track back when tired when you know there's nothing riding on it. No-one want's to go on holiday with a plaster-cast, ain't nobody got time for tan-lines.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (20/21 - Chernick, you grinchy bugger. Couldn't let SAF have his last moment in the sun...)
Most disputed result: Norwich vs WBA & Sunderland vs Southampton (both 6-9-6 splits)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels with a ridiculous 63,188/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (got your mention....happy?) 661/1
Average odds: 12,029/1 (1,797/1 without the ridiculous odds above)

Best predictors: Steven Daniels & Richard Verber (9/10)
Worst predictor: Josh Daniels & Tarek Najm. Stan Collymore too, though he didn't predict the last 2 games. (4/10)
Average score: 7/10 (6.67). Second highest score of all time

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (20/21)
Worst predicted result: Norwich WIN (6/21)

Villain of the week: Verber was the closer to getting the full 10, so I'm gonna look for a villain in the Sunderland/Southampton game. It's kinda difficult....maybe Jos Hooiveld for the deflection on the Sunderland goal? He's scored enough own goals this season, so I don't feel that bad...

Everyone's results:


Now to the leaderboard, and yet another change at the top.


It's so tight between the top 3, and mathematically speaking, Statman and the ECI could sneak it too if results go in their favour. A couple of mid-table shifts add some more colour this week, but the other major story is Jonathan Chernick sneaking up on Tarek, who'll now be very concerned about taking that dreaded wooden spoon. The previous incumbent of that position, Ryan Wain, hasn't shown his face in public since last season due to the shame (if you don't include a documentary about him on Channel 4 last week)

To this week's predictions:

Chelsea vs Everton - CHELSEA
Liverpool vs QPR - LIVERPOOL
Man City vs Norwich - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Southampton vs Stoke - DRAW
Swansea vs Fulham - SWANSEA
Spurs vs Sunderland - SPURS
WBA vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
West Ham vs Reading - WEST HAM
Wigan vs Aston Villa - WIGAN

Total odds: 240/1 (PaddyPower). This will be the week I get 10 right, and get bugger all money for doing it. Wait and see

I'm currently mid-medical finals, so whilst I have done the FA Cup stats, I'm going to plead off doing the blog about them until the weekend. Apologies to keep the suspense going until then.

Good luck guys, see you back next week for the end-of-season party.



Thursday 9 May 2013

Matchday 37 & FA Cup Final: CL places, relegation, shiny things and dosh

Let's start with Fergie. Congrats on a fantastic career. Undoubtably earned your place in the footballing pantheon. I'm not going to wax lyrical because others have done that, and I don't want to and it's my blog. He wasn't my manager; in fact, I've spent much of my life expressing reasons why I don't like him and that won't change because he's now retired. Respect, certainly. Like, certainly not. I am, however, rather excited for next season already...

Partly, that's because there is so little to play for - Chelsea's point last night makes them strong favourites for 3rd, so it's a straight shoot out for 4th between Arsenal & Spurs. If Arsenal make it, chances are that they will do so sending Wigan down, thus answering the final question of who will be the last team to miss out on the new TV deal lose their Premier League status.

It's the FA Cup final too this weekend, where the simpering City take on the welegation-distwacted Wigan (what?).

Meh, didn't get much sleep last night. Rooney, Luiz, Moyes - gone, did nothing wrong, not as terrible as everyone seems to be saying. That's your lot.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
The most popular predicted result was an Arsenal WIN (21/21)
The most disputed result was Norwich vs Aston Villa (8-10-3 split)

Interestingly, there was a lot of concordance this week...which may explain the rest

Highest odds: Who do you think? 6976/1
Lowest odds: Will O'Doherty 1381/1
Average odds: 3358/1

Best predictors: Jonathan Chernick & Martin Keown (5/10)
Worst predictors: Feneley & Eli Daniels (1/10)
Average score: A woeful 3 (season low of 3.09 in fact). Ride together, die together etc

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea & Reading WINS (0/21 - seriously, no-one had Chelsea to win!)

Everyone's results:



The leaderboard now, and the drama contineus:


Nick retakes top spot by the slimmest of margins, whilst there's a slight adjustment to the mid-table. Will O'Doherty will join the table if he plays in both remaining weeks, so there's the additional suspense of where he'll slip in. Will he blindside everyone at the top? Give Chernick some relief at the bottom? Let's see...

Now to look at the FA Cup Semis stats:

As per, 15 people played
The most popular results was Man City WIN (12/15)
The most disputed result was Wigan WIN (11/15) - err...yeah...only 2 matches.

The best predictors were Doron, Yanik, Tarek, Josh Gaon, Josh Daniels, Sam Ruback, Charlie Rawson, Nick Collins and Hesham Zakai (2/2)
The worst predictor was Ryan Wain (0/2)

The best predicted result was Man City WIN (12/15)
The worst predicted result was Wigan WIN (11/15)

Everyone's scores:


To the leaderboard now:


Josh Gaon looks to have guaranteed himself top prize, but it's all to play for between Charlie, Gaj & myself. Haven't done the maths, but I think Nick is too far out to catch up. 

Predictions for this week:

Matchday 37:

Aston Villa vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Stoke vs Spurs - SPURS
Everton vs West Ham - EVERTON
Fulham vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Norwich vs WBA - DRAW
QPR vs Newcastle - DRAW
Sunderland vs Southampton - DRAW
Man Utd vs Swansea - MAN UTD
Arsenal vs Wigan - ARSENAL
Reading vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 989/1 (PaddyPower)

FA Cup Final (for those in the FA Cup Game)

Man City vs Wigan - MAN CITY

Good luck guys, see you back next week for the final round of the season.