Friday 27 December 2013

M19 & M20 Predos & FA Cup Rules

Yet another quick post here guys.

Matchday 19 predos:

West Ham vs WBA - WBA
Aston Villa vs Swansea - DRAW
Hull vs Fulham - HULL
Man City vs Crystal Palace - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Man Utd - MAN UNITED
Cardiff vs Sunderland - DRAW
Everton vs Southampton - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Chelsea vs Liverpool - DRAW
Spurs vs Stoke - SPURS

Total odds: 2234/1 (PaddyPower)

Matchday 20 predos:

Swansea vs Man City - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Cardiff -ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Norwich - CRYSTAL PALACE
Fulham vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Liverpool vs Hull - LIVERPOOL
Southampton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Stoke vs Everton - EVERTON
Sunderland vs Aston Villa - SUNDERLAND
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Man United vs Spurs - MAN UNITED

Total odds: 781/1 (PaddyPower)

The FA Cup prediction game makes its return next week with the 3rd Round. It's a totally separate game from the regular Premier League stuff, so if you don't want to play, it will have no effect on your score. It was just a good way last year to make things interesting, and a few people ended up quids in.

Let's keep the stake the same - £3 - and the rules are simplified this year; no more co-efficients and complex maths. Simply put, every tie is worth a point, and the cumulative score at the end of the competition will decide the top 3, who'll win the pot in the ratio 70%-20%-10%. How much they win depends on how many people play. All you have to do is predict which team will go through the round - nice and simple. Full fixture list to be published in due course, but as there are a fair few games, have a think about who you'll be going for.

Good luck guys.

Monday 23 December 2013

M18 Predos

Just the predos:

Results to follow in the new year

Hull vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace - ASTON VILLA
Cardiff vs Southampton - DRAW
Chelsea vs Swansea - CHELSEA
Everton vs Sunderland - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Stoke - NEWCASTLE
Norwich vs Fulham - NORWICH
Spurs vs WBA - DRAW
West Ham vs Arsenal - DRAW
Man City vs Liverpool - MAN CITY

Total odds: 1872/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck, and don't pig out too much

Thursday 19 December 2013

Matchday 16 Results & 17 Predos

Howdy peeps.

So last week was an interesting one, then.

I only caught (and have still only seen) the last 10 minutes of Man City vs Arsenal. What a redonculous 10 minutes that was. If the whole game was like that, then that must rate as one of the best value for money games in football history. Aside from the 3 goals I saw scored, Bendtner had a goal disallowed for offside (very close, probably correct), Walcott had a very good chance and City looked dangerous as well. Sure, the defending was mad, but the people want goals damnit!

If I'm totally honest, I didn't see another sausage of football all weekend, but if we fast-forward to Sunday, Spurs were spanked by the Scousers, which ultimately seems to have cost AVB his job. I have to say, I thought he was totally hard done by at Chelsea, and was worried when he took over from 'Arry at Spurs, but it's a real marmite issue - you can argue that he gave Spurs the highest points total they've ever had in the Premier League, whilst losing one of his star players, and that after losing the other star player, rebuilding 1/3 of a squad and rejecting a chance to manage Qatar FC in St Germain, he deserved time to consolidate on a decent start with new players and being in the running for CL football, in the QFs of the League cup and a good Europa League performance too.

On the other hand, he presided over several spankings, his football sometimes appeared dour if not strange, he clearly couldn't utilise Soldado, didn't trust Defoe and had no relationship with Adebayor. He'd lost the defensive stability of last year with Dawson and Lloris regressing and seemed unable to relocate it. Most crucially, he never won the press over, initally for not being 'Arry, and then latterly for singling out one of their own. Unfortunately, it seems impossible to survive once Fleet Street sets it's mind on unseating you.

For what it's worth, I think he's still unfortunate, although certainly more culpable than at Chelsea. The news that he didn't want 4 of the new signings also suggests that not all was well in the Kingdom of Chigwell. I'd welcome debate this week, along with predos. (I welcome debate all weeks, though it's rarely forthcoming).

In other news, Tan of Cardiff fame is a complete Wasteman.

Let's get statty:

This week, 24 people played
The most predicted results were Chelsea and Everton WINS (24/24)
The most disputed result was: Norwich vs Swansea (9-8-7 split)

Highest odds: er, Me, with a slightly audacious 16, 570/1
Lowest odds: Doron, 2228/1. It's apocalyptic.
Average odds: 5732/1

Best predictor: Gaj Thiru, with a storming 9/10. Bloody Cardiff.
Worst Predictors: er, Me (shocking, I know), Richard Verber and Tarek Najm (3/10)
Average score: 5.54/10

Best predicted results: Chelsea & Everton WINS (24/24)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool WIN (3/24)

Everyone's results:




The leaderboard:


The not-at-all-competitive Menachem Grunewald joins David Dinkin in being better than any of our statistical models. Gaj's great score puts him in a position to create a trinity of human success stories. Lawro for a second year running, puts many to shame. The usual suspects are located down the bottom, with no real major changes there. And yes, Nick, your score includes that other week.

There are a lot of games coming up in a short period, and I'm starting a batch of night shifts very shortly. So, I'll post the weekend fixtures now, followed by a new post on Monday for the Boxing Day fixtures, next weekend's fixtures & New Year's fixtures.

There will certainly not be any results posts in that time, but I'll catch up the first week of January. Speaking of which, there will be a cash FA Cup game again, as before. Details to follow, but it'd be great to have even more entrants than last year.

To this week's predos:

Liverpool vs Cardiff - LIVERPOOL
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Fulham vs Man City - MAN CITY
Man Utd vs West Ham - MAN UTD
Stoke vs Aston Villa - DRAW
Sunderland vs Norwich - SUNDERLAND
WBA vs Hull - DRAW
Southampton vs Spurs - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Everton - EVERTON
Arsenal vs Chelsea - ARSENAL

Total odds: 1650/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck all, and have a great festive footy season.

Thursday 12 December 2013

Matchday 16 Predos & a Mega results Catch Up

UPDATED beginning:

No preamble. Apologies for the wait.

Matchday 13

This week, 25 people played
The most popular predicted result was Liverpool WIN (25/25)
The most disputed result was Norwich vs Palace & West Ham vs Fulham (10-12-3 & 12-10-3 respectively)

The highest odds were: 3165/1 (Tarek Najm)
The lowest odds were: 1025/1 (Steven Daniels)
Average odds: 1833/1

Best predictor:  David Dinkin & Nick Collins (8/10)
Worst predictor: A lot of people. Al on 5/10. See below
Average Score: 5.92/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (24/25)
Worst predicted result: Hull WIN (0/25)

Everyone's scores:


Matchday 14

This week, 23 people played
The most popular predicted results were Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (23/23)
The most disputed result was Stoke vs Cardiff (9-8-6 split)

The highest odds were: 5389/1 (Josh Daniels)
The lowest odds were: 1848/1 (Steven Daniels)
Average odds: 3131/1

Best predictor: Me, David Dinkin & Andrew Feneley (7/10)
Worst predictor: Will O'Doherty, Jonny Chernick, Eli Daniels, Steven Daniels and Doron Salomon (4/10)
Average Score: 5.43/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (23/23)
Worst predicted result: Palace & Villa WINS (1/23 - congrats to Charlie & Tarek there)

Everyone's scores:


Matchday 15

This week, 14 people played
The most popular predicted result was Liverpool (14/14)
The most disputed result was Fulham vs Aston Villa (6-5-3 split)

The highest odds were: Doron Salomon 3032/1
The lowest odds were: Will O'Doherty 1819/1
Average odds: 2352/1

Best predictor: David Dinkin (5/10 - 3/3 - chapeu monsieur)
Worst predictor: Me, Whoscored.com, Will O'Doherty, Josh Gaon, Sam Ruback & Doron Salomon (2/10)
Average Score: 3/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (14/14)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle & Stoke WINS (0/14)

Everyone's scores:


To the leaderboard, and vast changes as one would expect after 20% of games without a new one being produced.





So Dinkin's superb run of form, (potentially combined with FinkTank missing out on a week) sees him zoom to the top with a solid margin. What's striking about this season, compared to others, is the number of people scoring >5.00 as an average. Unfortunately, the group at the bottom are starting to be cut adrift from those in the middle, although, with more than half the season to still be played, there's a lot that can change.

To this week's predictions:

Man City vs Arsenal - DRAW
Cardiff vs WBA - WBA
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - CHELSEA
Everton vs Fulham - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Southampton - NEWCASTLE
West Ham vs Sunderland - SUNDERLAND
Hull vs Stoke - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Man Utd - DRAW
Norwich vs Swansea - SWANSEA
Spurs vs Liverpool - DRAW

Total odds: 16, 570/1 (er....yeah)

Good luck guys

Thursday 5 December 2013

Matchday 15 Predos

So just the quick post from me, and I'll catch up results over the weekend.

Predos for this weekend:

Man Utd vs Newcastle - DRAW
Crystal Palace vs Cardiff - PALACE
Liverpool vs West Ham - LIVERPOOL
Southampton vs Man City - CITY
Stoke vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Sunderland vs Spurs - DRAW
Fulham vs Aston Villa - VILLA
Arsenal vs Everton - ARSENAL
Swansea vs Hull - SWANSEA

Total odds: 2101/1 (PaddyPower)

Good Luck guys