Thursday 31 December 2015

S5M20: All downhill from here

The festive football often throws a curveball or 2 - often due to the frequency of fixture and the propensity for derbies. Arguably, as the league becomes more compacted (as per the Elo method), "shocks" shouldn't be quite so surprising - and therefore the adage that anyone could beat anyone else rings truer.

And so it was - Leicester ended their long unbeaten run with defeat at Anfield and Stoke continued their great form against the bigger clubs to beat Man Utd. Arsenal fluffed the chance to go top by being soundly beaten at St Mary's for the 2nd time in a year - although they then took top spot with a comfortable performance against a blunted Bournemouth side.

Chelsea's ship is stabilising (#sadface) as would be expected - the old regression to the mean thing.  Norwich and Spurs continued their good form as well, whilst the rest bumbled around without really doing much of interest.

Except for in the North East. 4 games, 4 defeats for Newcastle & Sunderland. Combined with Villa's trajectory, and this might be the first season where the 3 relegation spots are confirmed before the league title/top 4 is decided. I've not factchecked that statement.

Anyway, let's get statty:

Matchday 18:
 28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: Stoke vs Man Utd (9-11-8 split)

Highest odds: My mother 16,475/1
Lowest odds: Doron 2968/1
Average odds: 7315/1

Best predictor: David Silverman (7/10)
Worst predictor: Steven Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 4.29/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea vs Watford DRAW & Southampton WIN (1/28 - congrats Eli Daniels & Stan Collymore)

Swing: Bojan & Benteke's openers/winners - 11 in each match left disappointed

Matchday 19:
28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Southampton (8-9-11 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 19,825/1
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon 8,549/1
Average odds: 13,209/1

Best predictor: Lawro (7/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com, Stan Collymore & Zoe Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 4.29/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (28/28)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (3/28)

Swing: Son's (illegal) late winner for Spurs - 12 have arguable cases for compensation

Everyone's results:


As ever, 1st column M18, 2nd M19

Leaderboard (>2/3; 13/19)



To this week's predos:

West Ham vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Arsenal vs Newcastle - ARSENAL
Leicester vs Bournemouth - LEICESTER
Man Utd vs Swansea - MAN UTD
Norwich vs Southampton - NORWICH
Sunderland vs Aston Villa - SUNDERLAND
WBA vs Stoke  - STOKE
Watford vs Man City - MAN CITY
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea - CRYSTAL PALACE
Everton vs Spurs - SPURS

Remember - return of the FA Cup game  next week - only £5 to enter!

Happy new year guys - and good luck

Thursday 24 December 2015

S5MXmas

So for anyone who's going to read this - Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays. It's difficult to type when full of turkey. I feel like my fingers are full of stuffing.

Anywho, last weekend saw the shedending of the Jose weight, and Chelsea managed to play their best football of the season against a very compliant Sunderland side. Thereafter followed a sequence of 5 away wins in a row - all of which a surprise of some degree. Everton losing to Leicester at home was a cracking game, Norwich recording their first win at Old Trafford since the days of George Best or something was even more of a shocker. The speculation and pressure continues to mount for Van Gaal, but I for one hope he stays. Forever. Spurs winning away at Southampton was probably the least surprising given their respective forms this season, and I guess the Palace win at Stoke and Bournemouth's continued charge at WBA could be placed in the same category. 

The Villa fightback begun with an equaliser from Jordan Ayew - watch this space for some Remi magic. Then on Sunday, Watford played as everyone knew they would, and Klopp's labile Liverpool career continued, before we all caught our breaths with a bore-draw in Wales.

The Monday night game was brilliant. A cracking atmosphere....and a first half that was exciting without any real threat until the half hour. City really should have taken the lead through de Bruyne (or Silva), and the "2 goal swing" was compounded a minute later by a cracker from Walcott. I was sitting directly in line with that finish and it was delicious. Hart grasping fresh air like a man who uses his hands to knead that shampoo into his scalp. Giroud's first time finish just before half-time was also preceded by a City chance...and a 2 goal lead was there that didn't feel like a 2 goal game.

The second half was quite comfortable from an Arsenal perspective (if time didn't go so damn slowly) until Yaya decided he'd had enough of rolling around the floor like a small child, and recognised his diving wasn't going to win him friends nor penalties.

That lad can play. When he flicked the switch - and it was literally that fast - he plays a different sport to those around him. His finish - I mean he totally meant it, but I'm still not entirely sure what he did. Maybe someone offered him a birthday cake or something, but a squad full of players like him remain the reason why City are still favourites for the league in my view.

Anyway, let's get statty:

This week, 26 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man United WIN (24/26)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Bournemouth (9-9-8 split)

Highest odds: AFM 336,228/1 (I could cry but she beat me....)
Lowest odds: Yo Abbott: 5684/1 (it was a high odds week in fairness...but the above is ridiculous)
Average odds: 56,135/1 (including anomalies as I'm not entirely sure where I can draw the line) 

Best Predictor: Zoë Daniels (7/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of us (2/10)
Average score: 3.27/10 (season low)

Best predicted result: Chelsea & Arsenal WINS (19/26 - not one person went for a Man City win bizarrely)
Worst predicted result: Norwich WIN (1/26 - well done Mother Feneley)

Swing: Jordan Ayew's goal as above - 22 people foxed. 

Everyone's results:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 12/17)


This week's predos:

Boxing Day:
Stoke vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Aston Villa vs West Ham - ASTON VILLA
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace - BOURNEMOUTH
Chelsea vs Watford - CHELSEA
Liverpool vs Leicester  - LIVERPOOL
Man City vs Sunderland - MAN CITY
Swansea vs WBA - DRAW
Spurs vs Norwich  -SPURS
Newcastle vs Everton - EVERTON
Southampton vs Arsenal - DRAW

Midweek:
Crystal Palace vs Swansea - DRAW
Everton vs Stoke - EVERTON
Norwich vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA
Watford vs Spurs - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Arsenal vs Bournemouth - ARSENAL
Man Utd vs Chelsea - MAN UTD
West Ham vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
Leicester vs Man City - MAN CITY
Sunderland vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

(Edit: 1431 27/12/15)
Good luck guys. Hope your festive seasons are merry and bright

Friday 18 December 2015

S5M17: Tear it up (Start again)

Tonight was one of those times that journalists hate - and in my own way, I now empathise.  All my carefully mentally-constructed themes for this blog (I don't just make it up on the spot ya know....) have been discarded as my brain struggles to penetrate the dense fog penetrating my every thought.

The head cloud that looks like Nelson Muntz from The Simpsons. The auditory hallucination of raucous, mocking laughter.  The internal soundtrack playing (a well kl, street mix of) "Ding dong, the Witch is dead".

Yea friends. My brother from another mother, oligarch and all round bad guy Roman has pulled the trigger and the era of Mou is no mour.

There was a cracking mail in the F365 mailbox posted about 20 mins before he was 'mutually consented' talking about the similarities between Napoleon Bonaparte and Jose Mourinho. Whilst I do like the idea of dumping the unemployed Portuguese on a rock in the middle of the Atlantic, I am somewhat terrified by the thought of his progeny coming back to the Premier League in a few years.

Anyway, whilst I can no longer do it justice - well done to Leicester, Watford and Bournemouth. Newcastle really are wonderfully schizophrenic and Villa are impressively depressed  (psych 101). I'd also like to make special mention of David Moyes who really is a moron. Jury's still out, my size 11.

Maureenlolz. Just couldn't have happened to a nicer bloke.

Embedded image permalink

Anyway, let's get statty:
This week, 27 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (27/27)
Most disputed result: Sunderland vs Watford (7-11-9 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 5104/1
Lowest odds: Feneley 917/1
Average odds: 2445/1

Best predictors: Loads - 5/10
Worst predictors: Nick Jones & My mother (2/10)
Average score: 3.85

Best predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (27/27)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle WIN (0/27)
Swing: Hoolahan's equaliser for Norwich (25 disappointed)

Result that united literally the whole country and should be played on a projector at the UN over and over because it'll fo-sho lead to world peace: Leicester beating Chelsea. Congrats guys.

Everyone's results:



The leaderboard  (>2/3 available weeks; 11/16)



To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA (obviously. Hazard & Fabregas to shine)
Everton vs Leicester - DRAW
Man Utd vs Norwich  - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Spurs - DRAW
Stoke vs Crystal Palace - STOKE
WBA vs Bournemouth - BOURNEMOUTH
Newcastle vs Aston Villa - NEWCASTLE
Watford vs Liverpool - DRAW
Swansea vs West Ham - SWANSEA
Arsenal vs Man City - DRAW

Total odds to follow

Good luck guys.

MOURINHAHA

Thursday 10 December 2015

S5M16: Swans deflowered

Howdy all.

Much of the discourse this week has been about how brilliantly unpredictable this season has been. I take great pride in my ever-increasing database of predictions, and I can categorically state that most things are "unpredictable" - within the obvious limits of only a few choices.

For example, this weekend threw up several results that foiled us predictors - but I would argue the only one that was genuinely a surprise was Southampton drawing with a poor Villa side. All the other "shock" results - Stoke beating Man City at home, Newcastle beating Liverpool at home, Man Utd having a goalless draw when West Ham were away, Tony Pulis and Pocchetino presiding over a tight scrappy draw - in the cold light of day, none of these things are particularly ridiculous. Chelsea losing at home to Bournemouth is ridiculous when you compare resources, but Chelsea are in such a rut presently, at least psychologically, that it's not quite so ridiculous. Although....of course, no on is prepared to put money down on it...

You see, my theory (based on absolutely no research whatsoever - I'd rather just sound off on matter psychological) is that we form entrenched biases that are 1) massively retrograde and 2) highly resistant to alteration. We know which teams are good because we have watched football for ages - and whilst this approach is fallible on any given matchday, it explains why you could predict the finishing table in August and be relatively close for 12-15 of the teams. What we don't do well, in my opinion, is react to poor form, or history of a specific fixture (ie does one team often nullify another?). We always think that the team is bound to turn it around - and I think this is a common flaw to us all. Look at how many predict a Man Utd win week-to week in the last few years. Or Chelsea or Liverpool. We think that Arsenal or City are bound to win their games regardless of the schizophrenic nature of their actual play.

I mean - I always assume the away team in the Newcastle vs Sunderland fixture will lose because of the distance travelled - as if they were stuck in traffic on the motorway instead of in a chartered plane for an hour. Some mental models are just hard to shift.

Let's get statty:

M14
This week, 27 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Arsenal WINS (26/27)
Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Watford (10-10-7 split)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels (7263/1)
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (2795/1)
Average odds: 4477/1

Best predictors:  Feneley & David Brickman (6/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com & Aron Kleiman (2/10)
Average score: 4.04/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (26/27)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth vs Everton & Norwich vs Arsenal DRAWS (1/10)

Swing: Grabban's equaliser - 26 annoyed

M15
This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool WIN (28/29)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Spurs (4-9-16 split)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels (22,164/1)
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon (276/1)
Average odds: 4819/1

Best predictor: Feneley & Dagmar (5/10)
Worst predictor: Nick Jones (1/10)
Average score: 3.03/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (26/29)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth & Newcastle WINS (0/29)

Swing: James McClean's equaliser for WBA denied 16 people an extra point

Everybody's results:


To clarify this rather horrible looking graph: blue = M14, red = M15. Pros/Statistical predictors in 2 shades of their usual colours. Missed weeks are blank (i.e. me having no blue line)


To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 of game weeks (11/15)


To this week's predictions:

Norwich vs Everton - EVERTON
Crystal Palace vs Southampton - CRYSTAL PALACE
Man City vs Swansea - MAN CITY
Sunderland vs Watford - DRAW
West Ham vs Stoke - STOKE
Bournemouth vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Aston Villa vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL 
Spurs vs Newcastle - SPURS
Leicester vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Odds to follow

Please note how after after all I've written above...I've still gone for all big teams to win. Face. Palm.

Good luck guys, see y'all next week

Thursday 3 December 2015

S5M15: Gone with the wind

It's taken 4 1/3 years but the final 100% impossibilitee participation record has gone.

Me. I forgot my own bloody game. Like seriously. I was hopping mad last week. In fairness, I have just moved house and had no Internet.  But come on....it's my game! I'd sorted a blog nice and early and could have posted my predos then. I'd put a reminder on my phone and ignored that (was genuinely busy) and could have used my phone to post at any time.

But I didn't.  Just completely forgot. Turned the footballing clock back to 2009. Frankly I'm disgusted with myself.

Truth be told...I don't really know much of what happened last weekend as I was unpacking any number of the 6 billion cardboard boxes littering my new lounge. I took a break to watch Arsenal and wished I hadn't.  And I'm still having technical difficulties with my new router  (same provider...why can't I just use my old hub and plug it straight in? Why did they have to meddle?!?!?) so can't upload any graphs etc so results can wait until next week. Apologies for the chaos. It's probably Michael Owen's fault.

So just this week's predos then today:

Stoke vs Man City - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Sunderland - DRAW
Man Utd vs West Ham - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Aston Villa - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Watford vs Norwich - WATFORD
WBA vs Spurs - SPURS
Chelsea vs Bournemouth - CHELSEA
Newcastle vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Everton vs Crystal Palace - EVERTON

Odds to follow when/if I fix the Internet.

Good luck guys

Wednesday 25 November 2015

S5M14: Giddy Lineker

I know a few Leicester fans. Suffice it to say, they're generally full of optimism. They've experienced enough rough over the years to enjoy the good times when they come - like the victory over Man Utd last year.

They've been enjoying being this year's surprise package, but now, with 13 matches gone - or 1/3 of the season, they find themselves unable to remain calm any longer. Top of the table, led by Vardy & Mahrez and managed by a rejuvenated Ranieri.

No-one expects them to go the distance as greater squad depth is likely to tell for the bigger clubs as the season progresses - but for now, they're loving life, and fair play to them.

Let's face it. Neither Arsenal nor Man City are nailed on. Man Utd are consistent but unconvincing - it feels like they could be derailed very easily. Liverpool swing between sublime and ridiculous, whilst Spurs are the quietly efficient dark horses. So why shouldn't Leicester make hay, and if they end up 4th or 5th, it'd be a phenomenal season.

Truth be told, I didn't see much football last weekend, nor even MOTD so I'm in no place to comment on the games - but a quick word for Sunderland who somehow managed to Big Sam their way to a win at Selhurst Park. He's gonna bloody do it, isn't he?

Just the short one this week then!

Let's get statty:

This week, 28 people played
Most popular predicted results: Everton & Arsenal WINS (27/28)
Most disputed result: Newcastle vs Leicester (2-13-13 split)

Highest odds: My mother 123,617/1 - then my sister 22,255/1, followed by Andrew Feneley's mother 12,860/1. Dear oh dear
Lowest odds: Feneley 423/1
Average odds: 15, 256/1

Best predictors: Loads (5/10 - see below)
Worst predictors: Sam Ruback & David Brickman (2/10)
Average score: 4.07/10

Best predicted result: Everton WIN (27/28)
Worst predicted result: WBA WIN (0/28 - oops)

Swing: Vardy's opener (and eventual winner) upset 13 people

Everyone's results:




Leaderboard (>2/3; 9/13)

To this week's predictions:

Aston Villa vs Watford
Bournemouth vs Everton
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Man City vs Southampton
Sunderland vs Stoke
Leicester vs Man Utd
Spurs vs Chelsea
West Ham vs WBA
Liverpool vs Swansea
Norwich vs Arsenal

Total odds to be updated later in the week

Good luck guys

Thursday 19 November 2015

S5M13: A big week



Since the last time I pressed publish, a hell of a lot has happened. I've had some great stuff in my personal life, which is always nice (classic footballer interview phrase) and some major stuff professionally too (see the news for more details).

And then there was Paris.

I got home last Friday night and had a push notification on my phone with the headline waiting for me. 2 hours of rolling news later I went to bed, and then resumed on the Saturday morning.

It's sickening, scary and outrageous all at once. It's difficult to process such a sustained, sophisticated attack on joie de vivre. The footage of the match at the Stade de France with the explosions audible was just bizarre.

I think it all feels more personal as a football fan - or a music fan. The ability to create a mental image of what happened, but translocated to your own sacred space. The cursory searches that you're subject to, The realisation that for all the bile spewed at the opposition players and fans, you'd drop it all in a heartbeat for real life.

Sport has a phenomenal redemptive power. It is the eternal optimist. The renaissance followed at Wembley, with a raw, emotional crowd and stoic guests. I've been singing the Marseillaise in my head for the last week. My own act of rebellion. For they shall not win.



To this week's predos:

Watford vs Man Utd -  MAN UTD
Chelsea vs Norwich - CHELSEA
Everton vs Aston Villa - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Leicester - DRAW
Southampton vs Stoke - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Bournemouth - DRAW
WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Man City vs Liverpool - MAN CITY
Spurs vs West Ham - SPURS
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland - CRYSTAL PALACE

Total odds: 511/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys



Thursday 12 November 2015

S5M13: Var dydlier than Ruud

In the beginning, there was Terry. And all who knew him, hated him for he was a terrible person. However, before the beginning...lets call it the prologue, there was the horse. And some people liked the horse even though he didn't do much beyond tap ins except for that one time against Fulham, but that was the exception that proved the rule, and anyway shut up...

I didn't like the horse. Didnt like him one bit. Liked him less after the infamous afternoon with the whole Keown thing. Liked him even less a year after. Liked Ronaldo more after I found out he wound the horse up. That was nice.

Anyway, I'd repressed most memories of the horse until recently when Jamie Vardy started scoring and never really stopped. All of a sudden, graphics pop up on my screen as he overtakes premier league great after premier league great. And now we stand, with Vardy in joint 2nd place, with a chance in the next game to top the list.

I'm aware that he'll only equal the horse if he scores - but he'll have done it in 10 consecutive games in a single season, which is obviously better than horse's split season effort. In fact, given that I've just jinxed Vardy, I award the record to him anyway, on the grounds above and moral grounds for not being a cheaty horse.

In other news, Man Utd won again which is nice for them. Wazza sticking it to the man with another great goal anonymous performance. Everton drew with West Ham and Remi Garde ground out a point against City in his first game. Swansea are really struggling with yet another loss...this time out tactic'd by a rope-a-dope Norwich side. Southampton came away with maximum points from the long trip to Sunderland after a stupid late tackle gave them a penalty. The look on Allardyce's face. Scenes.

Bournemouth played really well against Newcastle in every way except the scoring way to lose the other South coast - North East match up...it's almost like this is planned. The North London derby was a score draw where both sides left relieved and disappointed. Weird. Spurs dominated in long patches, whilst Arsenal (Giroud) had several great chances and certainly finished the stronger. Klopp suffered his 1st defeat against Scouse bogie team Palace after Scott Dann nodded in a cracking opportunistic rebound. Finally to the goal of the weekend...a wonderful scissor kick from Arnautovic to condemn ex-boss Mourinho to yet another defeat. Although I'm not sure if he takes that defeat...if you're suspended, are you to blame?

The results from last week...

This week, 29 people played
Most Popular Predicted result: Man City WIN (28/29)
Most disputed result: Bournemouth vs Newcastle (9-10-10 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman 11,717/1
Lowest odds: Me 1005/1
Average odds: 5042/1

Best predictor: WhoScored.com (6/10)
Worst predictor: Stan Collymore (2/10)
Average score: 4.1/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (27/29)
Worst predicted result: Aston Villa vs Man City DRAW (1/29 - er...my mum)

Swing: Ayoze Perez's winner for Newcastle - 10 broken predictors...

Everyone's scores:




Leaderboard (>2/3 - 9/12)


Happy International break y'all.See ya back for the next PL game

Tuesday 3 November 2015

S5M12: Foggy Fluoro-balls

You can say many things about how BT have waded full throttle into the sports market, but they've often had a large helping of luck with their game selection. It might be selective bias (not having Sky, and relying on streams/SkyGo), but I really think that the Sky games often fail to live up to the uber-hype afforded them by the Isleworth crew.

BT - and again, it's not like I've watched every game they've had, seem to get the games that either have the high scorelines (classically Arsenal away to another big side) or, this season, the narrative games - Klopp's first game at Spurs, and now first PL win at Chelsea. This of course, only perpetuated the Mourinho meltdown stuff that is responsible for somewhere approaching 85% of all sports coverage.

I'll admit up front - I'm a fan. I'm a fan of the roving "studio" form pitchside, to poorly thought out platforms outside the stadia. I like Jake Humphrey, and I like the massive studio thing, with multiple areas and multi-sport use. I like the experiment with Howard Webb and the use of good quality journalists. They don't always get it right but it's great to see some innovation.

Update: Just remembered they're to blame for Michael Owen infecting the airwaves. Black mark

Anyway - Kloppy did a job on a Chelsea side starting to fall apart off the pitch too. Cesc did the old "wasn't me guv" thing - but there aren't too many candidates who it could be - Matic? Hazard? And MouMou's Moud was probably not improved by the announcement that Eva Carneiro is going after him personally, as well as the club for constructive dismissal. Good on her - even without my minimal dislike of all things Chelsea (boots, pensioners, Clinton etc), the way she was treated was absolutely disgusting and I hope she takes them to the cleaners, then gets another high profile job elsewhere. Would love to know what happened to Jon Fearn too, but he didn't have the sexist element to this too.

Man Utd are another sad story - the toothless old tiger now struggling to even pounce on the horsemeat lobbed into their cage. LVG is a baffling chap - with total objectivity, I feel that he's been zero improvement on Moyes, especially given the money he's had to spend.

Man City did the whole "mark of champions" thing, which was a shame for a Norwich side under a lot of pressure, although it wouldn't have been an issue were Joe Hart not a complete klutz.

Arsenal weathered a south-Welsh storm in the first half to secure a comfortable win against a Swansea team also struggling to build any momentum. Newcastle will be happy with their back to basics draw, whilst West Ham have basically decided not to compete in games were they can't counter-attack - although this is not helped by having an utter donkey for a centre-forward. Spectacular error there for the first goal. (I typed foal accidentally here. Freudian).

Vardy managed to keep the streak alive with yet another comeback win for Leicester, and Mahrez also boosted my fantasy football team with a pair of mirror images goals. On Sunday, Everton and Sunderland decided to play rush goalies or something...not a clue what happened, but Allardyce has really got a job cut out there. It's fair to say that the Bournemouth fairytale has never really got going - injuries have killed the enthusiasm and they too are finding it hard to get any traction. And Villa - well...Bon chance Remi.

'Nuff chat. Let's get statty:

This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (29/29)
Most disputed result: Newcastle vs Stoke (11-12-6 split)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels (6461/1)
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (625/1)
Average odds: 2267/1

Best predictors: David Silverman & WhoScored.com (8/10)
Worst predictor: Nick Collins (4/10)
Average score: 5.97/10 (season high)

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (29/29)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool WIN (1/29 - congrats to my mother. Tail. Donkey. Blindfold)

Swing: Coutinho's 2nd and eventual winner outfoxed 11 of us. And Gary Cahill.

Everyone's scores:




The leaderboard (>2/3; 8/11)


To this week's predictions:

Bournemouth vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Leicester vs Watford - LEICESTER
Man Utd vs WBA - MAN UTD
Norwich vs Swansea - SWANSEA
Sunderland vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
West Ham vs Everton - EVERTON
Stoke vs Cheslsea - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Man City - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Spurs - ARSENAL
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace - LIVERPOOL

Total odds: 1005/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

Thursday 29 October 2015

S5M11: Quarter Marked

Gary Neville was a breath of fresh air when he started his punditry career on Sky, and the "Gareh" & "Jaaaayyymeeee" double act is certainly a good watch. But Red Nev's taking a bit of a kicking this week, after his comments that the 1st half in the Manchester Derby was as good as anything he'd seen this season (as well as his inability to be objective as an FA coach over England captain Wazza, but that's another story). James Richardson explained this on the Football Weekly podcast with a quotation from an Italian (shocker) coach, who felt that 0-0 was the perfect score, as no team had made any errors.

Whilst there are such things as brilliant 0-0 draws - think Rome 1997, or, from my personal experience, the home tie against Real Madrid in the 2006 Champions League, it's a mistake to claim that all 0-0 draws are a result of immaculate play - a footballing stalemate. You can have error strewn 0-0 draws, where attacking incompetence "cancels out" defensive ineptitude. You can also have 0-0 draws, where both sides seem to settle for a safety-first attitude even before the game has kicked off - and it is in this category that I'd argue the game at Old Trafford fell. It was a game low on attacking endeavour, in part due to injury, and in part due to poor form. Martial seemed to be the only player willing to force the game in the first half, and I think the first shot on target came in the last 10 minutes. To me, that's hardly perfect football.

Elsewhere, Timmy's gone, which was hardly a shock. He's just not very good. No offence yeah, mate. The Ayew brothers scored in the same game for the second time in a calendar year - I have no way of knowing how common that is, but I'd wager, not very - at least at the top level. Jamie Vardy scored a goal after a Messi-esque dink overt the 'keeper to keep alive his remarkable scoring run, whilst Watford captain Deeney finally got his first Premier League goal in a great away win at Stoke. Arsenal held on a little to beat Everton in a game they should have won more comfortably, whilst the HarryKane has "returned" with a hat trick against a Bournemouth team looking a little shell shocked at the pace of the top flight. Let's see if this is the start of a streak. Sunderland beat Newcastle in a "jammy" 3-0 win to continue this ridiculous thing about new managers, 2nd games etc. Liverpool, Klopp, something etc. I'm boycotting that until the love dies down.

Something else happened....WBA....no, not  quite...


Delicious. West Ham haven't done too badly either.

Let's get statty:

This week, 27 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (26/27)
Most disputed result: Norwich vs WBA (8-11-8 split...unusual)

Highest odds: RDM 89020/1 - I despair
Lowest odds: Me, 3063/1
Average odds: 25,406/1

Best predictors: Zoë Daniels, Tarek Najm, Sam Ruback 6/10
Lowest predictor: Hesham Zakai 2/10
Average score: 4.15

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (26/27)
Worst predicted result: Watford WIN (2/27)

Swing: Sadio Mane's equaliser - 16 disappointed

Everyone's results:



Yep - highest & lowest odds score the same...

For the leaderboard (>2/3 - 7/10)

In other news, here's the proof that the trophy actually exists, and now resides with someone who has earned it...


Congratulations Josh Gaon - although looking at the standings so far, it's as insipid a defence as say....Chelsea?

To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs Liverpool - DRAW
Crystal Palace vs Man Utd - DRAW
Man City vs Norwich - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs Stoke - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Watford vs West Ham -WEST HAM
WBA vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Everton vs Sunderland - EVERTON
Southampton vs Bournemouth - SOUTHAMPTON
Spurs vs Aston Villa - SPURS

Total odds:  1561/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys

Thursday 22 October 2015

S5M10: For the First Time in Forever

Isn't the game easier to predict when teams that you'd expect to win win? For the first time since March, Manchesters United & City, Chelsea and Arsenal  all won, and that's given a bump to the average scores!

Kloppmania reached it's zenith this weekend, with an apparently love-in on BT Sport - I didn't watch it myself, but thought "this is absolutely insane" when watching MOTD and you saw the press photographers kneeling multiple layers deep in front of the dugout as he took in White Hart Lane. Seriously guys - let's dial down the adulation just a tad. Fortunately, the game took some of the enthusiasm away - it's gonna be a learning curve.

Chelsea managed to avoid their season getting worse, although I'm not sure a home win against a terrible Aston Villa can be anything other than a banana skin dodged. West Ham continue their astonishing away record, with 2 late goals to take maximum points from Palace, whilst Man Utd won at Goodison - something which is apparently rare in the last few years! Comeback kings Leicester did it again, and Sunderland lost again, Sam Allardyce unable to provide the new manager bump they'd have hoped for. Newcastle finally came good with a swashbuckling display against a naive Norwich side, and Swansea really have fallen off the wagon with defeat at home to Stoke.

Away from the football, I thought I'd see if there's any appetite for an Impossibili-5-a-side game/tournament (depending on numbers) some point before the new year (H/T Tarek for the idea) - a get together to see who's predicting skills are better than their actual footballing skills? If you're interested, let me know with your prediction and we'll try and sort something out.

Right, let's get statty:

This week, 30 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (30/30)
Most disputed result: Everton vs Man Utd (11-11-8 split)

Highest odds: AFM (back in the game) 52,442/1
Highest-odds-not-from-the-mother-of-a-participant-who-doesn't-really-know-anything-about-football-and-just-picks-names-like-I-pick-horses-at-the-Grand-National-(the mother, not the participant): Josh Daniels 6798/1
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon 2062/1

Highest scores: Steven Daniels & Eli Daniels (7/10)
Lowest scores: David Silverman & Andrew Feneley (3/10)
Average score: 5.00/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (30/30)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (4/30)
Swing: Vardy's equaliser (22 disappointed)

Everyone's results:



The leaderboard (>2/3; 7/9):


To this week's predos:

Aston Villa vs Swansea - DRAW
Leicester vs Crystal Palace - LEICESTER
Norwich vs WBA - NORWICH
Stoke vs Watford - STOKE
West Ham vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Arsenal vs Everton - ARSENAL
Sunderland vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Bournemouth vs Spurs - SPURS
Man Utd vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Southampton - LIVERPOOL (updated 24/10/15 1034)

Total odds: 3063/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys!

Thursday 15 October 2015

S5M9: Pesky things

What a difference 2 weeks makes. I don't want to cover old ground regarding how disruptive International breaks are to this blog, but the last 2 weeks really take the biscuit. I would have loved to talk about my misery when Aguero banged in goal after goal, less than 24 hours after I stripped him of my Fantasy Football captaincy. I could have gone into great detail about my feelings regarding the continued unravelling of the Hypocritical One at Stamford Bridge by Sadio Mane. Don't even get me started on the elation of the first 20 minutes at the Emirates. That was a turnback-time moment.

Update: I'd completely forgotten about B-Rodge. That amazing Henry moment. Klopp etc. Oopsie.

Internationally, England did a good one, but obviously that's not good enough for Fleet Street. Won't stop them proclaiming that we're gonna win every game in France 4-0, and then hounding Hodgson when that won't happen. Congrats to Wales on their first tournament appearance, I believe I'm right in saying, in the lifetime of anyone ever to have played Impossibilitee (I'm discounting Lawro 'cos he doesn't know this exists). As for the Netherlands - gutted for them as a nation but that van Persie own goal was quite special.

Away from the football, the world seems to be going mad with my social media full of Hunts, both domestic and international. I've also taken the exam I was "revising" for, so have lost my reasons for avoiding work, and now have to....ya know...er, work. Devastating. I was getting used to this lifestyle (FYI - nowhere near as glamorous/lucrative as the media would have you believe).

Basically - a lot's happened since we last met.

Let's get statty:

26 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (24/26)
Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Stoke & Bournemouth vs Watford (7-10-9 & 9-10-7 respectively)

Highest odds: Seriously guys - I'll give you a top 5:

  1. My mother 62,141/1
  2. My sister 38,669/1
  3. Doron (welcome back, thought you'd gone serious for a while) 21,670/1
  4. Andrew Feneley's Mum 17,045/1. Just reflect on that for a second. She's only the 4th highest odds
  5. Aron Kleiman 14,768/1
Draw your own conclusions.
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels 3668/1
Average odds: 18,201/1 (as if there are even outliers anymore)

Best predictor: Dagmar 7/10
Worst predictors: Aron Kleiman & Hesham Zakai (2/10
Average score: 4.38/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (24/26)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland vs West Ham DRAW (2/26)

Swing: Arnautovic's winner for Stoke left 10 disappointed.

Everyone's results:


To the leaderbard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks (6/8)


To this week's predictions:

Spurs vs Liverpool - DRAW
Chelsea vs Aston Villa -CHELSEA
Crystal Palace vs West Ham - CRYSTAL PALACE
Everton vs Man Utd - EVERTON
Man City vs Bournemouth - MAN CITY
Southampton vs Leicester - SOUTHAMPTON
WBA vs Sunderland - SUNDERLAND
Watford vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Newcastle vs Norwich - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Stoke - SWANSEA

Total odds: 2287/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys

Thursday 1 October 2015

S5M8: Near-Normal Service Resumed

Well well well.

Man City at the lane. Easy banker there. Even Dzeko used to fill his boots. Oh.

That said, following from last week's rant about poor refereeing - let's turn our gaze this week to the chap(pette)s with the flags. I personally don't understand how they ever get any other than the most blatant offsides rights. To be able to spot a knee or toe an inch or 2 beyond the last man at 30m (vision), travelling at 15-20miles/hr, whilst focussing on the exact moment the ball is played forward (audial) with a cacophony of background noise would be quite tricky if it was an isolated task from a stationary position - a sort of hazard perception thing from the driving test here. To do with whilst you're running yourself, so with a kind of twisted side on view, and maybe a long pass to quickly switch the play, under floodlights on a rainy evening...well, I take my hat off to them for even volunteering for the job. This doesn't mean I have the same level of compassion when they've just flagged Walcott off again for the 8th time and we're 1-0 down and my view was the perfect one to comment on offside (behind the goal).

I'm not saying that offside calls are always impossible, but generally they do pretty well. And then you get Saturday. This Luddite mentally infuriates me. Sport is, as per the wishes of Baron de Coubertin, becoming faster, stronger and er, higher. My background allows me to comment with some certainty that the advances in muscle mass, growth and power, combined with the technological advances in kit/ball/boot/pitch manufacture are all much faster than the continuing evolution of the human eye & brain. That's before you throw the cheaty professional aspect in where people can 1) train all day and 2) do whatever they can to gain an advantage.

Officials are on a hiding to nothing and need help. Maybe that's an American football system of having 1 official per square metre of pitch. Maybe that's a review system for goals as per Rugby Union with tries (Is there any reason why....)? It's not going to ever catch everything, but with the amount of money involved at the elite level, we have to try and become as close to perfect as possible. From a disciplinary side, I'd like to see 2 things brought in - 1) TV monitors on the touchline for the 4th official (or create a 5th official in the stands away from the dugouts) in real time and 2) a citation committee as per rugby to award punishment within a range based on the offence itself and the previous history of the offender. It's ridiculous that this only happens with racist abuse, or if you bite someone. It's ridiculous that a leg breaker of a challenge is given the same punishment as a slap to the face that a 4 year old girl would be embarrassed at handing out, and especially if you've got form.

I get that the FA are a fusty old organisation tethered to change. I get that FIFA are actual the natural heirs to SPECTRE (excited to see that). But there's no reason why clubs couldn't experiment in their preseason tournaments, or at youth level, and the stuff that works....bring it up a tier.

Anyway, back to football. Alexis Sanchez is back and is just amazeballs. Daniel Sturridge is also back and my word, have Liverpool missed him. He seems to have the same muscular robustness as another previous pacey Liverpool striker from Cheshire. Just hope he'll be a better commentator in years to come. Man Utd go top for the first time post-Fergie with a resounding win over Ryman League Sunderland. Just give it up now lads. Swansea really have fallen away early this year, but a big win for the Saints who've also floundered so far,  a sentiment I could extend to Stoke. West Ham's late equaliser annoyed me, as I quite liked their invincible-away, village-at-home approach.

Jose's Geordie blues continue although I guess he'll be happy enough with a point given where the game was with 10 to play. Ramires. Woof. Watford decided to put on a full-size reconstruction of their Playoff defeat to Palace, which was a nice bit of culture for their fans, before Everton came from 2-0 down to win away at WBA. Finally, no more invincibles for another season. #isyouronegold

Let's get statty:

This week, 28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (27/28)
Most disputed result: Watford vs Crystal Palace (14-5-9 split)

Highest odds: AFM  18,788/1
Highest non-AFM odds: Doron Salomon 7326/1
Lowest odds: Joe Abbott 948/1
Average odds:  4834/1 (3432/1 without AFM)

Best predictors: Lawro & Ryan Wain (7/10). A boost for the city of Liverpool
Worst predictor: AFM 1/10. Even she couldn't not predict Man Utd beating Sunderland at home
Average score: 4.64/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (27/28)
Worst predicted result: Spurs WIN (1/28 - well done Hesham Zakai)

Swing: Tricky one, but van Dijk's near post header gave Southampton a lead they never relinquished, so I'm going with that. 16 had the draw.

Everyone's scores:

 

Leaderboard for those who've played >2/3 available games (5/7)


Major movement in the "champions league" spots, whilst at the bottom, Ryan Wain achieves his alltime highest position of not-bottom. Some clear daylight now, and he'll be looking to attack serial-trophy winner Josh Gaon who's having a bit of a transitional season.

To this week's predictions:

Crystal Palace vs WBA - CRYSTAL PALACE
Aston Villa vs Stoke - DRAW
Bournemouth vs Watford - WATFORD
Man City vs Newcastle - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Sunderland vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Chelsea vs Southampton - CHELSEA
Everton vs Liverpool - EVERTON
Arsenal vs Man Utd - ARSENAL
Swansea vs Spurs - SPURS

Total odds: 4607/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys.


Thursday 24 September 2015

S5M7: You wouldn't like me when I'm angry

Let's get to it. I've tried to keep this blog relatively neutral over the years, albeit with the occasional slip up, like a certain Captain, Leader, Legend, best-mates-wife-..... yeah, in Moscow...

However, this is my party and I'll rant if I want you, so...if you'll indulge me (otherwise, skip to the stats bit).

Diego Costa is a bit of a bottom. I've toned that down since Saturday lunchtime. Time's a wodnerful healer. How someone gets through 81 minutes without being called for a foul with his style of play is beyond me? Actually, it's not, but I'll come to that later.

How he doesn't get carded for any of the following offences, I don't know:

  • 3rd minute - trips himself up, blames Coquelin, asks the ref for a yellow card. Unsporting conduct right there  - yellow. In fairness, I hate the faux-moralising over this, I find it not different to appealing for a throw/corner that you know isn't yours....but thems the rules.
  • 41st minute - 2 hands clawing at Koscielny's face over right shoulder - yellow. Followed up with an intentional swing of his left arm over his left shoulder, connecting with Koscielny's face  - straight red -violent conduct. Followed up by a chest-bump/shove to Koscielny knocking him to the ground. Certainly a yellow, arguably a red too. All of which was unprovoked and amazingly unnoticed.
  • 41st minute - Some afters with Gabriel who's come back to stick up for his mate. A load of handbags frankly. The worst bit I saw was Zouma (I think) grabbing Gabriel around the neck, but this seemed to be trying to pull him away, so benefit of the doubt. Punished with a booking for both Gabriel and Costa in the classic ref move of "I haven't actually got a clue what happened here, but stop it". Good from Gabriel in my opinion to come back and get involved. Team spirit etc
  • 41st minute - Gabriel and Costa jabbering at each other on the way back to the halfway line. Your mum's a......, no your mum's a..... kind of stuff. Gabriel then flicks a leg in between Costa's legs but does not make contact (thanks ESPN Brazil). I thought on first viewing he'd also poked Costa in the eye, but I was clearly wrong. Costa then turns angel and asks for retribution - arguably unsporting conduct again. 
  • 2nd half - stopped making notes on minutes - dive for penalty (yellow) and then a kick out off the ball at Oxlade-Chamberlain - well that's a straight red surely....Mike Dean's already made that clear in this game.
So by my maths - Costa should have had 3 yellows, 2 straight reds and an "Orange" for the chest bump thing. The only thing he was booked for was frankly nonsense. Should Gabriel have been sent off? Sure - he was booked and did something stupid - although they seem to have previous from Spain when Costa elbowed him 2 years ago. The problem comes from terrible refereeing.

Cards on the table. I'm no fan of Mike Dean. As a general rule, I hate refs who flamboyantly brandish cards, and do the whole "come here,...no, come HERE" thing. The one's who love the limelight. There's a blog going round about Mike Dean's record in Arsenal games over the last 5 years too - I'm not sure he's biased per se, however the statistics are interesting in how Arsenal statistically underperform/received fewer penalties and more red cards than the average with other refs, or his average. However, on the grounds of last week, you have to call into question his competency, and that of his team. He fundamentally lost control of the game, and how the officials missed so many offences I don't know. A stronger ref would have separated Costa and Gabriel - their teammates should have too, but Dean is equally culpable. He told Monreal to go away, who was there to translate as Gabriel speaks about 11 words of English. He's overly officious, had a shocker and singlehandedly changed the game. That's not his job, and how he has got away without punishment I don't know.

The subsequent reversal of the bans is of bugger all satisfaction. As Wenger said, it meant playing 10 vs 11 rather than 11 vs 10 for over half a match. I thought we weren't too bad before the red card - not saying we were going to win, but looked pretty comfortable. Against 10, we'd have had a real chance to push on second half. That was taken away. It also pushes the narrative again - Wenger can't beat Mourinho etc. It's frankly nonsense - in the Community Shield, Chelsea went out to win and were outplayed, and didn't look threatening at all before Gabriel's red card. I'd argue that the most recent evidence is that Arsene has worked out (finally) how to play against Mourinho.

The final point is about technology. I can't stand the luddite mentality of those in control of the game. Cricket, rugby, tennis have all embraced technology without it harming there sports, as have the NFL. No one is asking for robot referees, but it's insane that we are so unwilling to try and assist games that have so much riding on them. For example, the excuse that you would have to stop the game is often used - well the game was stopped for 4 minutes on Saturday. More than enough time for a video review of the whole event. When a goal is scored, the game is stopped. It's either a goal, or not, in which case the buzzer watch doesn't go off it it doesn't cross the line. If it does, and it's a tight offside, why not review the video? I'd also give retrospective bans for diving - increasing for each offence and starting with 5 games. So dive, win a penalty, then miss a month of football. Next time you dive, miss 6 games, and so on. Then let's see how easily players fall over. Technology doesn't have to take over the game, but it can help in so many ways. It's also such a different sport at the elite level to Sunday league that that's a nonsense excuse too. Ever seen a player's dad reffing at the top level...

Right, rant over. YOU CAN ALL COME BACK NOW!!!

In other PL news, West Ham should just play all their home games away. Sunderland are dreadful, Watford have now won 2 on the bounce and Leicester should stop giving away 2 goal leads before playing football. I reckon Rodgers will be gone in the next 2 weeks at Liverpool, and Man Utd seem to be starting to rumble again, although by some accounts, Southampton deserved a point.

Let's get statty:

This week, 

31 people played (season high)
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (29/31
Most disputed result: Stoke vs Leicester (11-7-12 split)

Highest odds: Me 18872/1 (not entirely sure how)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman 4943/1
Average odds: 9625/1

Best predictor: Dinkin 5/10
Worst predictors: Tarek & Will O'D 1/10
Average score: 2.90/10

Best Predicted result: Bournemouth WIN (21/31)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool vs Norwich DRAW & West Ham WIN (0/31)

Swing: Russell Martin's equaliser  - fooled 28 of us

Everybody's results:



HZ's results deserve a star next to them as he only submitted the last 4 matches.

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks (5/6)


And finally, to this week's predictions:

Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Leicester vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Liverpool vs Aston Villa - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Sunderland - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Swansea - SOUTHAMPTON
Stoke vs Bournemouth - STOKE
West Ham vs Norwich - NORWICH
Newcastle vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Watford vs Crystal Palace - WATFORD
WBA vs Everton - DRAW

Total odds: 1475/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys, and thanks for staying with me through my rage



Thursday 17 September 2015

S5M6: Stronger down the Left

So, last week's early kick off saw a late signing for the Labour party come (nominatively deterministically) from Left field. Although talk about a transfer saga - de Gea ain't got nothing on Jez.

Suffice it to say, Premier League footballers are quite rich. Most of them aren't hugely bright. I wonder if Sky News had been on in the Chelsea dressing room before the game, distracting the multi-millionaires to the extent that Naismith was able to score the perfect hat-trick. Maybe they watched the post-announcement press conference instead of their technologically-thwarted tactical meeting.

Anywho, for all of us non-Chelsea fans, that was a thoroughly enjoyable start to the weekend. However, the Corbynmania had died down by the 3pm kickoffs, with Arsenal thrashing Stoke 2-0, City proving that the massive investment in their academy pays off once a season and Watford upsetting a Swansea start who had got off to a great start. In the battle of the new boys, Norwich comfortably saw off Bournemouth who are struggling to adjust to the Premier League.

I read something (dunno where) last year which talked about the physical differences between the PL and the Championship. Players actually cover more ground in the lower division, but the interviewee was talking about when and where the movement occurs as being the difference. In the Championship, it's end-to-end like a Basketball game. High energy, high turnover. In the PL, it's generally more sedate in the middle third, but teams up the pace of passing and show explosive movement in the attacking zones, and that's the bit that "lesser" clubs tend to struggle with - keeping focus and discipline for 90 minutes in and around the box. If I can find the article, I'll update the blog with a link.

I'll skip WBA vs Southampton, and let's talk about the Fallen Giant Derby. Man Utd deserved a win with a great second half, with a great goal off the training ground to open the scoring. New boy Martial sealed the game late on with a goal which will do nothing to ease the 'New Henry' comparisons being fired around (If anyone hasn't already heard about this, here's the breakdown of the add-ons - by my reckoning, Man Utd will end up paying 70m Euros by the end of the season if he makes it into the France squad for Euro 2016!)

However, Benteke gets the plaudits for me. Frankly a ridiculous goal. Up there with the best overhead kicks I've ever seen and not something I thought he had in his locker. Just woof.

On Sunday, Spurs bored us all to death to beat an already-relegated (yeah, I'm paying out) Sunderland and then Timmy gave us all a chuckle by ballsing up a 2-0 lead with 15 minutes to go. No gilet throwing this time. West Ham continued their cracking start to the season with a 2-0 win over a Newcastle side who are a little baffling - they certainly look better than last year, but 1) can't score and 2) can't defend. Bizarre.

'Nuff chat. Let's get statty:

This week, 29 people played
Most predicted result: Arsenal WIN (28/29)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Southampton (5-14-10 split)

Highest odds: My mother debuting at (30,552/1) - AFM has got competition
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (2272/1)
Average odds: 4815/1 ignoring the ridiculous outlier

Best predictor: Doron Salomon (8/10)
Worst predictors: Ryan Wain & Eli Daniels (3/10)
Average score: 5.67/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal WIN (28/29)
Worst predicted result: Everton WIN (0/29)

Swing: Naismith's 2nd goal - the eventual winner - left 13 people shaking their fists & screaming with joy simultaneously.

Everyone's results:



And the leaderboard for those who've played >2/3 available games (4/5)


So, to this week's predictions:

Chelsea vs Arsenal - DRAW
Aston Villa vs WBA - VILLA
Bournemouth vs Sunderland - BOURNEMOUTH
Newcastle vs Watford - NEWCASTLE
Stoke vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Swansea vs Everton - DRAW
Man City vs West Ham - MAN CITY
Spurs vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Liverpool vs Norwich - NORWICH (Rodgers to go after 1 more defeat)
Southampton vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Total odds: 18,872/1 (PaddyPower) - if there's one week I wouldn't mind winning my acca....

Good luck guys!

Thursday 10 September 2015

S5M5: Wazted

As I may have mentioned once or twice before, international breaks are not helpful when it comes to writing something here. What's already old news when I usually come to reviewing the previous matchday is practically prehistoric when we've have an extended break to beat a motley collection of bakers, farmers and perfectly-manicured financial workers. All the headlines this week have been about Wayne Rooney and his becoming England's all-time leading goalscorer.

Well, I'd hate to be accused of being churlish - so, Wazza, if you're reading (I know you can't play Impossibilitee...no hard feelings) - Congratulations. You can only beat the record that someone else set, and clearly no-one else has been able to do so in nearly half a century.

Of course, a lot of the discourse has been the old staple "it was better in my day" when comparing the previous record holder, and former-Impossibilitee player, Sir Bobby Charlton - yes folks, for those of you who've come in recent times, Sir Bobby once trod these here hallowed blog pages. Once. Did quite well though.

To that end, I thought I'd add a couple of thoughts to the discussion:

The first regards this little infographic I stole from someone on twitter (sorry no attribution as I forgot to note it down)


So, I don't pretend to be an expert on 1960s football, and have no idea as to how good some of these teams were. If you took a yoof of today transitioning from being a Belieber into a football fan, and told them that Hungary used to rule the roost in Europe, they'd probably look at you with the same disbelief as the rest of us have when we first heard the term Belieber. So whilst I know that the USSR and Portugal were alright, and maybe Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, I've got really no idea how good or bad Spain or Sweden were in that time. There are also a lot of games against the home nations, who seemed to be abysmal even then and 5 goals against Luzembourg and 4 against the USA who looked pretty shonky. I think we also run the risk of falling into the Youtube trap of seeing just Bobby C's highlights - the blasters from distance and the driving runs, and a Wazza highlight tape could be just as impressive over the last 12 years. I'm sure some of our more seasoned players may have watched more of Charlton than I have, but everyone has seen more of Wayne Rooney as there's more football on TV - every single touch of his has been televised and scrutinised in a (social) media frenzy that didn't exist in the same way 50 years ago.

The stats column on the right, whilst showing an Impossibilitee level of basicness certainly doesn't show any real difference. It's probably also fair to suggest that the level of football globally has risen with the globalisation of tactics (see Inverting the Pyramid by Jonathan Wilson) and the revolution in fitness.  Therefore it's unlikely that Rooney will have a) been a surprise and b) had the space to operate in that Sir Bobby may have enjoyed.

Finally, winning your countries only World Cup, on home turf with a fairytale story (admittedly not his hat-trick) bestows a certain glow upon your career that persistent quarter-final exits can't quite match.

Plus Sir Bobby is a gent, and Wayne is a rotund fornicator of ladies enjoying their golden years - ya feel me?

The second point I wanted to make occurred to me when I was watching England play San Marino.
I wondered whether I could get a game so looked at the stats:

According to the CIA World Facts database, the male population of San Marino aged 15 - 64 was 8992 at last count. I'll round that to 9000.

Looking at the birth rate, it's been relatively stable (if anything a slight dip), so looking at the 15 - 40 category to account for those realistically available for selection, I'll divide the selection in half - 4500.

Assuming, therefore that 1) Every male between 15 - 40 is able bodied and 2) has any interest in playing football for their country, and ignoring actual talent or physical fitness, I reckon that to play for the national team, you have a 1:180 chance (squad of 25).

That's not too bad - but I reckon I'd still only be the sub keeper, as that's probably less popular.

Critiques: 1) haven't taken into account the Sammarinese diaspora - who knows how many are eligible worldwide and 2) This is clearly nonsense.

For comparison, England 1: 638,846 and Gibraltar 1: 189 (same methodology)

Right enough of that, there was PL football 2 weeks ago and stuff happened. Let's get statty:

In Matchday 4:
28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: Bournemouth vs Leicester (8-10-10 split)

Highest odds: Ryan Wain (7680/1)
Lowest odds: Yo Abbott (757/1)
Average odds: 2787/1

Best predictor: Nick Jones (6/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com (1/10)
Average score: 3.68/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28) - dur. Death, taxes and Man City Home wins folks.
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace & WBA WINS (0/28). Special mention to Andrew Feneley's mum for being the only one to correctly predict West Ham winning at Liverpool for the first time under Queen Elizabeth or something

Swing: Jermain Lens equaliser for Sunderland - 20 people left beating the ground

Everyone's results:


To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks - (3/4 to date)


Proper made up (is that the right Scouse?) for Ryan who storms off the foot of the table. Also worthy of comment is the clustering of employees of the same company around the top of the table. They shall remain unidentified, however, I may have to go full Ruxin on this if this continues.



(FYI - if you've not seen The League, I've just made your day. Puerile, infantile and damned funny)


Right, to this week's predictions:

Everton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Arsenal vs Stoke - ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Man City - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Bournemouth - DRAW
Watford vs Swansea - SWANSEA
WBA vs Southampton - WBA
Man Utd vs Liverpool - MAN UTD
Sunderland vs Spurs - DRAW
Leicester vs Aston Villa - LEICESTER
West Ham vs Newcastle - WEST HAM

Total odds: 3066/1 (Paddypower) - the home wins are coming...I can feel it in my bones...

Good luck guys, and if you haven't yet done the questionnaire on what the best method of delivering the blog to you - look at the tab "Reminders" in the top right corner.

Until next week...