S4M35: Rage Against The Machine (& Tarek)

Let's get straight to it. This was not a good week. I've added to my list of off-season hypotheses to be tested the theory that Christmas & the end of the season have the lowest scores, due to unpredictable scores. The Christmas theory is based around fatigue - the end of the season being due to the disparate "importance" for points in match-ups.

Suffice it to say, that the average score was low this week, but digging into the numbers a little more revealed an interested trend. 2 of the joint worst performers were the most statistical predictors in ECI & FinkTank, suggesting that their long-term, data-driven approach to prediction doesn't allow for the flexibility of my end-of-season theory above. Tarek completed the set - for him, I have no reason. Too many meatballs or something.

Anyway, this is good news for humans everywhere, since when the whole Skynet thing happens as prophesied by Cameron the Wise in 1984, we will have an edge with which we can hold out until help arrives in a DeLorean or something.

Koeman and Poch managed to press each other into parity in the early kick off, before a couple of missed penalties did their best to call time on part of the relegation battle - QPR at least salvaging the draw, whilst Burnley showed that you are not just vulnerable after you score, but also when you should have scored! Leicester gaining karmic retribution for the Watford playoff episode of a couple of years ago.

Hull also managed to win away for only the 2 time this season - Pardew continuing his streaky form as demonstrated at Newcastle for so long.

Streaky Mind Map

Newcastle, of course, were obvious in losing, although they made it seem closer than it was with a late goal. John Carver is going his best to be statistically the worst manager in the history of football. Sunderland got an objectively cracking result with a draw away at Stoke, but in the context of what they need, it's not good enough.

Liverpool's wheels have well and truly come off, losing to Hull after a draw with WBA, whilst LvG has now lost 2 in a row, in the same fixture that did for Moyes last year. You wonder if Moyes would have been given more time if he'd also been aggressive in his press conferences. Man City got a late winner to beat Villa, who should have had a penalty against not-Joe-Hart after he brought down Benteke at 2-2 when through on goal. Amazing how they seem to be stumbling so much given the quality of their squad.

The final weekend game saw Mourinho be predictable, and Arsenal almost as predictable, especially given Everton's win earlier in the day. A reasonably tight game saw both teams happy with a point, followed by a week of squawking in the press about who's actually better.

In my view, it's quite simple. Chelsea are the better team. That's why they are top. They're top because they've been the best team in the country all season, but have been operating at an "efficient" level since January. Whether that's due to injury, other teams figuring them out or Mourinho reverting to his tried and tested tactics, they've earned the right to scrap their way to lifting the trophy, likely this weekend. Every single team would do the same as Chelsea did this weekend, were they in the same position.

That said, it is boring. It's always boring to watch a team scraping it's way through an extended period unless you're a fan of said team when it's excruciating during games and then great after. It's more boring when that team contains phenomenal attacking talent, and have already shown their ability to demolish other sides only a few months ago.

Why the reaction? In my opinion, it's because, deep down, they (Mourinho/Chelsea fans) know it's true. They know that, whilst the record books record the victors, the epic stories of football - the things that all football fans can love on a non-partisan basis, and the stuff that gets young kids hooked is the story - the legend. All the banners in the Shed End will never create that kind of buzz around Mourinho shutting a game down. Ironically....the epic stories (for a neutral) come from the Inter-Mourinho years - the Miss in Moscow and the Di Matteo fairytale in Munich. Maybe I'm wrong - that's just my opinion.

Let's get statty:

This week, 20 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20) - how lucky we all were...Obrigado Fernandinho!

Most disputed result: Burnley vs Leicester (6-6-8 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon (5881/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (1080/1)
Average odds: 4052/1

Best Predictor: Richard Verber (6/1)
Worst predictors: Tarek Najm, ECI & FinkTank
Average score: 3.15/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20)
Worst predicted result: Stoke vs Sunderland DRAW (1/18)

Swing: Chadli's equaliser for Spurs - ruining the afternoon for 8 people.

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks (23/34)

To this week's predos:

Leicester vs Newcastle - LEICESTER
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs QPR - LIVERPOOL
Sunderland vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Stoke - DRAW
West Ham vs Burnley - DRAW
Man Utd vs WBA - MAN UTD
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - CHELSEA
Spurs vs Man City - DRAW
Hull vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Total odds: 1791/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

S4M34: Pearson, Pulis and Precious Van Gaal

So, a truncated programme of Premier League football still managed to fox us all. Pun somewhat intended. Leicester seem to have finally woken up and are now going on the sort of run that could see teams that thought they were safe do that whole wake-up-with-a-start-at-stupid-o-clock-in-the-morning-being-really-confused-and-bleary-eyed-thing-and-know-that-were-it-a-real-problem-like-a-burglar-then-you-just-couldn't-do-anything-about-it-'cos-you-were-coming-from-a-cold-start thing.

You know the feeling. Pearson's team could make it 4-in-a-row (ok, might have overdone the hyphens now) playing a Burnley team who look like their resistance is starting to crumble. Their issue is goals - they work hard and rarely concede loads - but if you can't score, then conceding 1 is often enough to drop points, and 2 is nearly always a death sentence. In fairness, I think many, both fans of the club and neutrals, thought they would be even worse off now, so it's par for the course, and they'll gladly take the parachute payments and, will in due course, be back, I'm sure.

They lost to an Everton side also putting together a late run - but by contrast, this has been disappointing to Evertonians compared to last season's valiant effort to get CL football. They face a Man Utd team who they doubled last season - the question now is whether van Gaal will get his team to respond or whether their newly found confidence is fragile. I didn't see the game last week, but by everything I've heard/read - it went roughly to the predicted Mourinho plan. I did, however, see the van Gaal press conference on MoTD. Wow. Talk about spitting the dummy out. I get that these are uber competitive guys being interviewed in a cupboard (seriously...flash interview spaces are amazingly cramped) after an emotionally draining afternoon, but no need to act like a complete John Terry about it.

Speaking of whom, Chelsea will look to pull the same miserable rabbit out of their blue hat against the form team in the league. Arsenal have been less fluid in recent weeks, but have won their last 3 "big games" (don't think I've ever written that sentence on this blog in 4 years) and would love to at least delay the Chelsea open-top bus-ride around Fulham for another week. Arsenal of course, would be hoping to have one of their own in May after confirming their FA Cup final spot - followed by a rejuvenated Villa under Tim Sherwood - who seems to have nailed this mid-season boost malarkey. A post previously held by Pulis last season, who bested his successor in the role, Pardew to halt the Palace renaissance.

Quick run through of the rest: Newcastle are absolutely hopeless and I reckon Mike Ashley has just placed the club in 'Caretaker' mode. Stoke are not a bad side anymore, although you wonder in Southampton have just run out of puff now the run for 4th place is over - are their legs just a little heavy? Man City can't yet be said to have kick-started their form - West Ham are only marginally behind Newcastle in the 'already on holiday' travel brochure.

Long article - I've missed you guys

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played

Most popular predicted results: Palace & Man City results (19/21)
Most disputed result: Newcastle vs Spurs (7-6-8 split - plenty of eedjits like myself thought Newcastle might want to win one more match before the end of the season)

Highest odds: Feneley's mum (obvs) with a frankly staggering 17,952/1. This is over only 7 games.
Highest odds excluding Feneley's mum: Me (373/1)
Average odds: 3234/1 (290/1 excluding the outlier)

Best predictors: Yo Abbott (what a run of form he's had), JC backpage pin up Dinkin, Times page 20 something pinup FinkTank and er, the internet's EuroClubIndex (5/7)
Worst predictor: Me & Tarek (2/7)
Average score: 3.52/7

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/21)
Worst predicted result: WBA WIN (1/21 - well done Mrs Feneley)

Everyone's score:

To the leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 games - or 23/33.

Fink Tank has hunted down Josh Gaon....could he overtake in the final straight? Yo Abbott pushing for CL football next year...more likely glorious failure and a transfer to Real Madrid though...

To this week's predos:

Southampton vs Spurs - SPURS

Burnley vs Leicester - LEICESTER

Crystal Palace vs Hull - CRYSTAL PALACE

Newcastle vs Swansea - SWANSEA

QPR vs West Ham - QPR

Stoke vs Sunderland - STOKE

WBA vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Man City vs Aston Villa - MAN CITY

Everton vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Arsenal vs Chelsea - DRAW (as ever, not really)

Total odds: 4832/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

S4M33 & FA Cup 3 SF: All the results!

So how's everyone doing? Nice little bank holiday weekend? Bit of sunshine starting to break through. Good good.

Let's get down to business. Well...aren't Man Utd on a charge? Fair play to them...this run of games was going to make or break LvG and, credit to the big red-faced lump of Gouda....he's nailed it. Apropos to that, why do Man Utd only hire red-faced managers? Maybe the real reason why Mourinho was passed over for Moyes...

They're doing well..unlike City and Liverpool who have stumbled. Arsenal of course are doing their usual surge for 4th place, this season looking to nail it on the last day via a freefall from 2nd. Chelsea also seem to not really be that fussed about the whole winning in style thing - pets and their owners etc. Well...managers

Other teams that are currently rubbish include Spurs, Newcastle, WBA. In fact, I'd argue that Palace, Southampton and Swansea would still be quite happy with their performances, and probably Villa and QPR are happy to be showing some backbone. The rest? dunno.

What's going to be interesting is who will go down with Leicester. I still think QPR, and am edging towards Sunderland as the final side to go down....a poor side without the new manager bounce...

Anyway, that'll do for the discussions of 2 week old Premier League football.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 31:

This week, 20 people played

Most predicted results: Man Utd, Swansea & Chelsea WINS (20/20)

Most disputed result: Leicester vs West Ham (7-8-5 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley's Mum (12,895/1)

Highest odds excluding AFM: Doron (3551/1)

Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (776/1)

Average odds: 4045/1

Best predictor: Charlie R (7/10)

Worst predictors: Menachem & Richard Verber (3/10)

Average score: 5.1/10

Best predicted results: Man Utd, Swansea & Chelsea WINS (20/20)

Worst predicted results: QPR & Palace WINS (1/20 - well done me & Charlie)

Goal-swing: er, not sure....I think Ozil's free kick meant 10 people couldn't be right, and that's a bit more than Austin or Puncheon, as their result was 1 more step removed...ie more people wrong, but a draw in the middle, you dig?

Matchday 31:

This week, 19 people played

Most predicted results: Southampton, Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (19/19)

Most disputed result: Sunderland vs Crystal Palace (4-8-7 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (2663/1)

Lowest odds: Feneley (850/1)

Average odds: 1364/1

Best predictor: Loads of us (7/10)

Worst predictor: Sam Ruback 3/10)

Average score: 5.68/10

Best predicted results: Southampton, Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (19/19)

Worst predicted result: Villa WIN (0/19 - none of us backed Timmy)

Goal-swing: Shelvey's penalty - shafted 6

Everyone's results:

The leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 available weeks (22/32)

To the FA Cup game now:

The QF:

11 people played - yet again, boo Tharshan & Joe

Most predicted result: Liverpool WIN (10/11)

Most disputed result: The rest - 6-5 splits (or 5-6)

Best predictor: Joe Abbott (4/4)

Worst predictor: Brad Allix (1/4)

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (10/11)

Worst predicted result: Reading WIN (5/11)

Score from QF & totals so far:

3 points left to play for....so Joe Abbott & Sam Ruback are guaranteed some money....the question is who gets the 3rd cash spot and who gets what!

Predictions for this weekend:

Crystal Palace vs WBA - PALACE

Everton vs Burnley - EVERTON

Leicester vs Swansea - DRAW

Stoke vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Chelsea vs Man Utd - DRAW

Man City vs West Ham - MAN CITY

Newcastle vs Spurs - NEWCASTLE

Total odds: 373/1

and FA Cup (for those involved):

Reading vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Aston Villa vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

That'll do for now. I'm halfway through a death run at work myself (not literally thankfully) so hope normal service to be resumed next week when I've had some time to think!

Good luck guys!