Wednesday 16 May 2012

Matchday 38 Results: How about that then?


I grew up watching the 1988/1989 Season Review VHS, resplendent with horrific graphics and a distressingly short pair of shorts on Paul Merson. It meant I was familiar with Mickey Thomas's last minute goal even before I really understood exactly what it meant.

This Sunday, I had a wedding that I had belatedly been invited to. The ceremony started at 3.30. You have to be kidding me I thought. The missus wanted me to drive into town and so I told her that the deal was that no talking whilst the football was on the radio. Apparently missing the ceremony and arriving later after the final whistle was not an option. This is how my afternoon went:

Spurs scored approaching Baker Street. No worries....I was concerned with only one result. A minute later, I got the news I was waiting for. Yossi (accordingy to Radio 5, Gervinho. Idiots) had put us ahead at WBA. Then another goal from the Hawthorns made me punch the steering wheel. Stuck in traffic, moving about 40 metres in 10 minutes and the football going all wrong.

Needless to say, my reaction to going 2-1 down was even less dignified. We then parked up and went in to wait. I would say there were maybe 80 women waiting, and around 15 men, most of whom were over 70. So I settled down, had a look at Twitter - Santos. Boo Ya. Rooney & Zabaleta. Boring...City gonna walk this one. Newcastle collapse - care...it's all about our win. My stomach had woken up in knots, and by this point was doing it's best Red Arrows impression. Half-time - right, I thought, let's get this wedding sorted, you have 15 mins. GOOOOOOOO.

That was wishful thinking. It took over 45 minutes in the end. I (along with 70% of the male guests, who had arrived literally at the last minute) flitted between the ceremony and my phone, subtly located inside my jacket. Koscielny. GTFI. Keep it tight boys.

Ah, balls. I've been clocked and getting the death stare from the missus. Phone into pocket. Come on. come on....yes yes happily ever after. COME ON. Ceremony finishes, and as we head to the reception, I checked the scores. Spurs 2-0. Forget that then. Man Utd still 1-0. City are losing? Lol...but never mind that. We're still 3-2 up. 10 to go. My heart's joined the protest now. I went into the reception and found a corner, all alone.

Gunnerblog tweets "WBA put the ball in the net....offside". My howl of anguish dies in my throat. Full times come in. Bolton are down. Boo Hoo. Spurs win. Newcastle lose. Gibbs makes a block. Twitter goes mad. Must be some block. This is killing me. 5 minutes of injury time. I'm going to explode. Seriously, who puts a wedding during the final matches of the season. 3 to go. City score. Even so, can't believe they bottled it at the last. 2 to go. Free kick to Arsenal in the Arsenal half. Now is the time Szcz, for a yellow for time-wasting. COME ON....I can't refresh fast enough.

FT: WBA 2-3 Arsenal. Ah thank the lord, the tension literally melts away. The breathing gets deeper. My heart slows. We didn't screw it up. Refresh to see the comments.

Shut up. Shut up. No bloody way. Aguero? 2 goals in 4 minutes? City ripping the red ribbons off the trophy, tearing Fergie's hand away like the playground bully....can't touch this. Bloody hell. Amazing. I don't care - we've got 3rd place!!!!

Time for alcohol.

As the comedown continued, it sunk in. City's win wasn't a surprise, but what a manner to do it in. It's been talked to death, but I suppose if you have to wait 44 years for a title, why not do it in a fashion memorable outside your own fans. Cruel on Man Utd, but they've been there before. Spurs fans apoplectic with their season's conclusion. Understandable. A lesson on when to give it out duly delivered by the fat lady. Liverpool, er yeah. 14 losses. More than 1 in 3. Big decision there on Dalglish's future. I'd get rid, but I didn't grow up idolising him. Emery is available after leaving Valencia and I'd go with him.

Chelsea have the chance to ruin Spurs' dreams but I'll be supporting Bayern all the way. If only Fat Frank had told Terry to do one when he asked about lifting the trophy. Norwich did well all season, Wolves shuffled away (great left field appointment by them with Solbakken). Joey Barton is a disgrace and I don't understand why the police rarely get involved in stuff like this.

Enough talking, time for results. It was a record-breaking week this week, fittingly, in many way.

This week, 24 people played (RECORD)
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (24/24 or 100% concordance)
Most disputed result: Everton vs Newcastle and Swansea vs Liverpool (7-11-6 and 7-6-11split respectively)

Longest odds: Josh Daniels (6166/1)
Shortest odds: Sam Ruback (347/1)
Average odds: 2448/1

Best predictor: JT (9/10) (Levelled RECORD...well done mate!)
Worst predictors: Will O'Doherty, Dan Davis, Naphtali Torrance & Ben Grabiner (5/10 - not bad for the worst performers)
Average Score: A season high 7/10 (6.71/10)

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (24/24)
Worst predicted result: Stoke vs Bolton (6/24)

Villain of the week: The only result JT got wrong was the Stoke vs Bolton draw. He went for a Bolton win, and therefore terrible refereeing from Chris Foy (again!) to allow Walters' first goal cost him (and our...shared achievement) a 10, and a win at 1311/1. Is now a good time to mention that I claim 10% of all winnings? Desperately unlucky.

Everyone's results:


As this graph shows, it was a really good week, with everyone outperforming there average. It was great to have so many people play - 34 players in total this season, and if we exclude Sir Bobby Charlton who's unlikely to play every week in future, that's 70% turnout. I'd love to have you all back next season along with any friends you have who may be interested.

To the final leaderboard:


As always, only those who played >2/3 of weeks were eligible, so 26 weeks were needed. Ryan Wain just slipped in, but remained rooted to the bottom. Joe Miller is the inaugral champion, with a score of 5.30, the only regular to get >50% right on average. He's been at the top more or less all season and is a worthy winner. I'm still looking for a not extortionately priced trophy for you. Nick stays in 2nd place, whilst JT and myself share 3rd (I'm higher as I played more weeks). Doron Salomon's 1st week in the table sees him jump into 5th spot, followed by Dan Davis and Yanik Joshi. All of whom beat Lawro over the course of a season.  Joel Salomon and Feneley stagnated somewhat second half, Will O'Doherty will be disappointed to have slipped so far down that Sam Ruback overtook him on games played. My baby brother ensures that family bragging rights stay in their rightful place for another year.

I've also compiled a second table giving everyone's scores who didn't play enough to qualify above. It's ordered by Games Played, and then Score.


Ben Grabiner did pretty well over 16 weeks, as did Jonathan Chernick over 12. WhoScored.com and the EuroClubIndex also looked good - much better than Lawro! (although rounding up/down, they both are only right ~50% of the time). Marc Joss had a great last 3 weeks...let's see if he can reproduce that over a full season and Tharshan Thavagnanam showed his maths brain off...but only over 4 games 'cos he's also a lazy sod.

Thanks to everyone who played at all this year, obviously, this would have been a total flop without your participation and I hope to see you all again, every week next season!

Finally, I'd just like to ask for a little feedback if you have the time, looking to next season already on how to improve this game.


  • What was good? What was bad?
  • How could this be easier?
  • Would you like email notifications? Twitter? Facebook? Too much harassment? Too little?
  • If you didn't play that much, why? Was there anything missing for you?
  • Would you be prepared to contribute if I looked to build this more? Either skills (ie web stuff) or say £1-2 towards upkeep of a proper purpose-built site?
  • Too much waffle from me? 
  • What stats would you like to see that weren't provided?
  • Cup competitions?
Obviously I don't expect huge reports, just any help you can give me to make this even better would be really appreciated.

Thanks once again guys, I really appreciated all your support throughout. Until next time.


Friday 11 May 2012

Matchday 37 Results & Matchday 38: A special guest & last chance for glory...


All in all, a decent set of scores last week. I really should stop trying to extrapolate from people's predictions. That said, in hindsight, it wasn't that surprising what happened:

Man Utd & Man City both have unwavering focus now. They were always going to win.
Arsenal & Spurs have both decided to flip the contest into a race for 4th place and as such, are refusing to win.
Newcastle were unlucky to be playing City, Chelsea have put all their eggs into one German basket.
Down the bottom, Blackburn are awful, Wigan seem to be less so when they want to play.
Djibril Cisse scores or gets sent off. This weekend, I predict  he'll do neither however.
Bolton were unbelievably complacent in a battle, and that's why I think they'll go down, but the worst result for me was Everton's failure to beat Wolves and thereby wrap up Merseyside bragging rights.
'
To the numbers

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (14/15 or 93% concordance)
Most disputed result: Liverpool vs Chelsea (5-3-8 split)

Longest odds: Doron Salomon 2313/1
Shortest odds: Joe Miller 339/1
Average odds: 1094/1

Best predictor: WhoScored.com (7/10)
Worst predictor: Yanik Joshi (2/10)...someone's cracking up...
Average Score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (14/15)
Worst predicted result: Everton vs Wolves DRAW (0/15)

Villain of the week: No villain, however it was rather amusing to see John Terry dismantled in the first half at Anfield. Not amusing in terms of my predictions however.

Everyone's scores:


Solid scores all round, and an average score based on mode rather than range. Yanik's slide recently has been poor, and JT's return was heralded by whoopie cushions rather than trumpets. Joe played it safe with very low odds and was rewarded with a 6 that pretty much wraps things up.

The leaderboard:
Dan Davis - who I should point out made these predictions weeks in advance and to my knowledge hasn't been watching any football wherever in the world he now is, has jumped up the table, whilst Yanik falls back to 6th place. A couple of no-shows from Joel & Feneley mean that the bottom half is more or less as-you-were.

For the last time this season, to this week's predictions:

For what it's worth, I don't think there'll be too many surprises. I back City to win the league, Arsenal to get 3rd and Bolton to go do.wn. But I'm right less than half of the time, so we'll see.

Chelsea vs Blackburn - CHELSEA
Everton vs Newcastle - DRAW
Man City vs QPR - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Aston Villa - NORWICH
Stoke vs Bolton - DRAW
Sunderland vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Swansea vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Spurs vs Fulham - DRAW
WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Wolves - WIGAN

Total odds: 1424/1 with PaddyPower.

As you all know, I've been pilfering Lawro's predictions from the BBC site all year, and for part of the season, from the more mathmatical Euro Club Index & WhoScored.com. I thought it'd be a bit for fun to see how statistics and experience stacked up against us, the common garden fan. I'll reveal all (calm down) next week about that, however, for the final weekend of the season, I've got a special treat for y'all.

This week, I was fortunate enough to meet a genuine legend of the footballing world. I don't mean Pat Rice, nor Titus Bramble. His CV goes on and on - let's see if you can guess who...

Named in FIFA's greatest ever players list, Winner of the Ballon D'Or, World Cup, World Cup Golden Ball, BBC Sports Personality of the Year Lifetime Achievement Award, Laureus Lifetime Achievement Award.

3 league titles, 1 FA Cup, 1 European Cup. 106 Caps, and a (still) national record 49 international goals.

Got it yet?

Survivor of the Munich Air Disaster (which to me puts all the rest into the shade) and notorious proponent of the combover...

Sir Bobby Charlton - and can I just say what a lovely guy he is. In my experience, players from the 60s/70s are always more down to earth than their modern day counterparts. We had a little chat about the blog, and I asked if he'd be willing to give me his predictions, which he did happily. 

He went:

Chelsea vs Blackburn - CHELSEA
Everton vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Man City vs QPR - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Aston Villa - NORWICH
Stoke vs Bolton - BOLTON
Sunderland vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Swansea vs Liverpool - DRAW
Spurs vs Fulham - SPURS
WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Wolves - WIGAN

Thus conceding the title to Man City (his wife seemed more upset about this than he was), and relegating QPR. 

So whilst we can all conclude that Lawro knows jack all about football, it'd be great to see how we match up against Sir Bobby.

That's yer lot for this week - don't say I don't treat you....

Good luck, predos in the comments as per usual

Wednesday 2 May 2012

Matchday 36 Results & Matchday 37 Predictions

Eh....what do I know about football? Or gambling for that matter? I thought last week would be hard to call, with low scores. Instead,  as a group, we did pretty well - an average of 4.25 means that it was pretty average, as weeks go.

A pretty fun 45 minutes during the 1st halves of the Saturday 3pm kick offs saw goals going in like a Pinner vs HMH U14s game of a few years back - 27-1 the full time score (although to mitigate that, it was vs 10 men with no keeper) whilst the evening game saw Suarez score an outrageously good chip from40-odd metres. Sunday's games saw QPR and Blackburn decide to get relegated, neither of whom showed up at all in convincing enough wins for Chelsea and Spurs.

I actually only caught the last 3 minutes of the Manchester derby, but by all accounts, United decided to play for a point and didn't do so particularly well. You do wonder if they wouldn't have been better playing as if it was the away leg of a Champions' League knockout tie and looked for an "away goal" I still fancy Utd to pick up maximum points in the last 2 games, and I'm not sure I can say the same for City.

Last night saw Liverpool lose at home, and for all the criticism of Hodgson's home record, I'm not sure Kenny's has been any better this season. Does any Liverpool fan want him to stay on next season, regardless of what happens on Saturday? If anyone wants to answer with their predictions, please do.

Tonight sees Chelsea vs Newcastle, in what could be a 4th place eliminator-type game, whilst Spurs play Bolton, and Muamba is set to be present for the first time since his heart attack. I never really had my "professional" say on all that, but suffice it to say that the paramedics and medical staff are fantastic at what they do and all that training shows. When we run through crash drills, it sometimes is a little forced and difficult to recreate the mental and physical exertion involved, but their focus was impressive. It also showed, that whilst football is pretty retrograde when it comes to goal-line technology, common sense and racism in football, they've really learnt from the tragedies of Foe, Puerta, O'Donnell, Jarque and all the others who have died in what is ultimately, a fun diversion for most of us.

Bit serious that, let's talk numbers:

This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted result: Everton & Spurs WINS (15/16 or 94% concordance)
Most disputed result: Norwich vs Liverpool (7-3-6 split)

Longest odds: Josh Daniels (27,630/1)
Shortest odds: Jonathan Chernick (506/1)
Average odds: 6391/1 although this was skewed by 2 bets at vastly higher odds than most (1910/1 without them)

Best predictor: Marc Joss, on debut with 7/10. Beginner's luck....let's see if he continues this next season
Worst predictor: Yanik Joshi (1/10)
Average Score: 4/10 as mentioned above.

Best predicted result: Spurs WIN (15/16)
Worst predicted result: Swansea vs Wolves DRAW and Wigan WIN (2/16)

Villain of the week: No real villain this week.

Everyone's scores:


Dan Davis continues his remarkable recent form, whilst Yanik, Joe and Nick all did pretty poorly. Ryan had a good week (for him....a tad patronising, but hey ho) and Lawro gets upstaged again by the statistical "experts" - objective beats subjective in a very simplistic interpretation.

To the leaderboard:


I don't want to make accusations of choking, but Joe's lead has been cut by ~40% in the last few weeks. Could he be pipped at the post? It's unlikely to be Yanik who does the pipping as he drops into the "Europa league" spot. Mid-table is still very tightly bunched and I think it's fair to say that the bottom is unlikely to change massively from here on.

The leaderboard remember is only for those who have played >2/3 of weeks, however, come the end of the season, I'll publish everyone's scores. I'm starting to plan for next season now, so if you have any ideas on how to improve this, please let me know either through Facebook, Twitter or email (ccdaniels65@gmail.com).

Finally, to predictions for this penultimate matchday:

Arsenal vs Norwich - ARSENAL
Newcastle vs Man City - MAN CITY
Aston Villa vs Spurs - DRAW
Bolton vs WBA - DRAW
Fulham vs Sunderland - FULHAM
QPR vs Stoke - DRAW
Wolves vs Everton - EVERTON
Man Utd vs Swansea - MAN UTD
Blackburn vs Wigan - WIGAN
Liverpool vs Chelsea (how convenient is that!) - CHELSEA

Total odds: 884/1 with Paddypower (only 1st 9 games as no odds yet for LFC/CFC)


Predictions in the comments as per usual, good luck chums, enjoy the FA Cup final with its ridiculous kick off time, and I'll see y'all next week.