Sunday 31 December 2017

S7M22: I've got a LOT of stats to do...

Quicky 'cos it's NYE and I've already had half a bottle of gin (soz Dad)

Brighton vs Bournemouth - BOURNEMOUTH
Burnley vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Leicester vs Huddersfield - LEICESTER
Stoke vs Newcastle- NEWCASTLE
Everton vs Man Utd - DRAW
Southampton  vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Swansea vs Spurs - SPURS
West Ham vs WBA - WEST HAM
Man City vs Watford - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Chelsea - DRAW

Good luck guys

Thursday 21 December 2017

S7M19, M20 & M21: Coupon Buster (Merry Xmas)

I love a week like this. Limited variance between predictions, all showing lots of group think. Then obviously, it doesn't go to plan.

In game one. Perfect. 25 accumulators ruined. Benteke back in favour.

These weekends throw up loads of high results - who didn't see Arsenal or Chelsea winning, but also then allows for the shocks - Huddersfield overturning some poor form to win away at a Watford side who really have struggled in recent weeks. Maybe a 24-1-0 split favoured them...

Liverpool, Man Utd & Everton all won, as did Man City, very convincingly against a Spurs side fortunate not to be down to 9 men and concede a further 3 or 4.  West Ham continued their renaissance whilst last spot on MOTD was reserved for the goal-less draw between Brighton & Burnley.

Let's get statty:

This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton WINS (25/25)
Most disputed results: Brighton vs Burnley (4-9-12 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 885/1
Lowest odds: Me & Steven Daniels 326/1
Average odds: 595/1

Best predictor: David Brickman (8/10)
Worst predictors: Matt Abbott, Menachem Grunewald & Aron Kleiman (5/10)
Average score: 6.36/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton WINS (25/25)
Worst predicted results: Crystal Palace & Huddersfield WINS (0/25)

Everyone's results:


Leaderboard (>2/3; 13/18)


Festive predos:

M19:
Arsenal vs Liverpool - DRAW
Everton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Brighton vs Watford - DRAW
Man City vs Bournemouth - MAN CITY
Southampton vs Huddersfield - DRAW
Stoke vs WBA - DRAW
Swansea vs Crystal Palace - CRYSTAL PALACE
West Ham vs Newcastle - WEST HAM
Burnley vs Spurs - SPURS
Leicester vs Man Utd - MAN UTD


M20:
Spurs vs Southampton -SPURS
Bournemouth vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Chelsea vs Brighton - CHELSEA
Huddersfield vs Stoke - HUDDERSFIELD
Man Utd vs Burnley - MAN UTD
Watford vs Leicester - LEICESTER
WBA vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs Swansea - LIVERPOOL
Newcastle vs Man City - MAN CITY
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - DRAW

M21:
Bournemouth vs Everton
Chelsea vs Stoke
Huddersfield vs Burnley
Liverpool vs Leicester
Newcastle vs Brighton
Watford vs Swansea
Man Utd vs Southampton
Crystal Palace vs Man City
WBA vs Arsenal


Good luck guys, and have a great time whatever you're up to over this time

Thursday 14 December 2017

S7M18: I need a new title

I was going to talk about the lack of "winter balls" and whether this was a regression of the rampant commercialisation in the game - a return to the nostalgic times of white balls unless it was snowing...

...unfortunately, I decided to check my facts before typing and apparently we've been using the winter ball for 6 weeks and I just 1) haven't noticed & 2) my stream was funny the other day...

So a new topic is in order...

Man City continued their march towards the title with a record breaking 15th straight wins. Loads of bitterness going round about their money, Pep, something about set pieces etc - frankly I don't care. Love watching them play and they are a special, once-in-a-decade team however you spin in.

And Mou can do one chatting about respect...


No time for that hypocrite.

Liverpool have lost momentum a little, as have Arsenal, although they arguably had none to begin with. Chelsea continue to veer between dominance and rickety whilst Spurs are also keeping pace without really looking like their old selves. Spanking Stoke away doens't count. 

Burnley & Leicester are the other form sides, along with an Everton team slightly revitalised under Big Sam, who has spent his hiatus from football with a cameo role in Blue Planet II (yes I'm late to that party...)

...and not a pint of wine in sight...

Newcastle fans are looking off the pitch for their seasonal cheer - reports today that they may have a new owner imminently. Lucky them. Watford have also started a tricky spell losing to a Palace side who really should have 2 wins from 2. Benteke's penalty shenanigans coming too late to make it onto Nick Hancock's Xmas Footy Bloopers DVD. Does that still exist?

Swansea and West Ham both picked up some points to potentially make the 2nd half of the season more interesting - was rubbish last year when we knew everyone who was going down way in advance.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 16
24 people played
Most popular predicted result: Spurs WIN (24/24)
Most disputed result: Swansea vs WBA (9-7-8 split)

Highest odds: AFM (3843/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (902/1)
Average odds: 2188/1

Best predictors: Me & Aron Kleiman (7/10)
Worst predictors: Dinkin & Doron (1/10)
Average score: 3.63/10

Best predicted result: Spurs WIN (24/24)
Worst predicted result: West Ham WIN (0/24)

Matchday 17
20 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd & Spurs WINS (20/20)
Most disputed result: Crystal Palace vs Watford (6-8-6 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (281/1)
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon (246/1)
Average odds: 264/1

Best predictor: Steven Daniels (8/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of you (5/10)
Average score: 5.86/10

Best predicted result: Man City, Man Utd & Spurs WINS (20/20)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool vs WBA DRAW (0/20)

Everyone's results:


Leaderboard (>2/3; 12/17)


This week's predos:

Leicester vs Crystal Palace - LEICESTER
Arsenal vs Newcastle - ARSENAL
Brighton vs Burnley - BURNLEY
Chelsea vs Southampton - CHELSEA
Stoke vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Watford vs Huddersfield - WATFORD
Man City vs Spurs - MAN CITY
WBA vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Bournemouth vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Everton vs Swansea - EVERTON

Total odds: 326/1

Good luck guys


Monday 11 December 2017

S7M17: Thick & Fast

I've already given my excuses this season re: 48 hr turn arounds.

Predos below:

Burnley vs Stoke - BURNLEY
Crystal Palace vs Watford - WATFORD
Huddersfield vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Newcastle vs Everton - EVERTON
Southampton vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Swansea vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bournemouth - MAN UTD
Spurs vs Brighton - SPURS
West Ham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Good luck guys

Thursday 7 December 2017

S7M16: Cracking

Goals galore this weekend, with some great games.

The Rafa return was not a happy one at Stamford Bridge, with Chelsea winning comfortably. The Newcastle bubble of a month or so ago seems to have truly burst and needs something to invigorate it, like a sale...

Liverpool also ran amok on the South coast, with their Keeganesque approach to life being ideal for good highlights packages, but less ideal for winning leagues. Special mention to Lewis Dunk too for his valiant attempt to score an own goal against every side in the league this year, The other side of Liverpool was also content with a solid 2-0 win over the promoted Huddersfield who also seem to have hit a bit of a wall of late. New manager bounce and all that...

Burnley lost which is a shock of sorts, although Leicester have been quietly effective under Puel. An early goal from Demarai Gray settled that one; he incidentally being a key figure in Iain MacIntosh's relatively successful FM17 challenge. Weird that. Stoke, who are rubbish, beat Swansea who are worse. Watford who are doing ok drew with Spurs who are not really doing ok by their recent standards. Sanchez saw red for them for an elbow that frankly might not be malicious, but is certainly indefensible, much as Spurs Twitter tries...

...speaking of which, let me start at the end of the Arsenal-Man Utd game, which was one for the ages. Pogba's tackle was filthy and dangerous and frankly I'm amazed Bellerin didn't sustain a nasty ligament injury. It's reckless, and a deserved red and this nonsense about Bellerin's leg being in the wrong place is just ridiculous. It's not on a defender to block the ball and then remove themself from potential harm's way. It's on the attacker to not go in studs showing and plant them into their opponent.

It's remeniscent of this:


To the game itself, it was very good of the rest of the Arsenal defence to preemptively show solidarity with Bellerin's injury and shoot themselves in the foot. We know how Mourinho sides set up away from home. We know they have a little burst early on and then drop deep. We know they struggle to score. Stay focused, keep it tight & ride out the storm. Don't give away a soft goal by giving the ball away and then all running after the ball like 5 year olds in the playground. Don't give away a soft second goal within 5 minutes by having a mindblank outside your own area. Special mention to a delicious assist from Martial. 2-0 down, more goals that Utd have scored away from home in big matches since the days of Matt Busby or some such statistic & a mountain to climb.

Let's not paint this as a Mou masterclass. He parked the bus but left all the windows open and the key in the ignition but a combination of average finishing and extraordinary goalkeeping saved Man Utd. The one from Lukaku's acrobatic og attempt was my favourite I think. The chutzpah of choosing Lingard as MotM...

Then, when it seemed that an equaliser was imminent, another stupid goal conceded on the counter. Pogba did brilliantly (he was so badly missed, and will be so badly missed now) making Koscielny look every one of his 32 years (75 in Achilles terms) and squaring for a tap in - infuriatingly after Xhaka tracked the run brilliantly, then decided to ignore the man he's just seen in open space in the box.

There is no capacity for face-palming in blogs but rest assured that I have done so in real life.

There was no real serious comeback after that - 2 good shouts for a penalty not given but that was that. A weird game where Man Utd obviously the happier, but Arsenal fans were pretty heartened given their performance in a big game - something that often goes awry. An xG of 5:1 Arsenal apparently at the end if that's your thing - all I know is you play that game 100 times and we win more times than we lose.

WBA & Palace played apparently. Very nice too. The Mouth Derby ended 1-1 with more penalty controversy on the Sunday. Do we believe that a ref apologised mid-game for missing a dive? I don't. Would critically undermine him for the rest of the game. Man City came from behind to win with yet another late goal to basically ensure their win streak goes on forever. Mark of Champions & all that. 13 in a row now, and if they win this weekend, they equal the record.

Let's get statty:

This week, 26 people played
Most popular predicted results: Chelsea & Man City WINS (26/26)
Most disputed result: Arsenal vs Man Utd (11-11-4 split)

Highest odds: AFM (8906/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (374/1)
Average odds: 2741/1

Best predictors: WhoScored.com & Joe Abbott (8/10)
Worst predictors: AFM & David Silverman (4/10)
Average score: 5.96 /10

Best predicted result: Chelsea & Man City WINS (26/26)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd WIN (4/26)

Everyone's scores:




Leaderboard (>2/3; 11/15)


This week's predictions:

West Ham vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Burnley vs Watford - BURNLEY
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth - DRAW
Huddersfield vs Brighton - HUDDERSFIELD
Swansea vs WBA - SWANSEA
Spurs vs Stoke - SPURS
Newcastle vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Southampton vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Liverpool vs Everton - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Man City - MAN CITY

Good luck guys