Lots of stats so minimal chat. Xmas fixtures this year have lost me frankly. I have no clue who's played when and so on, so quite looking forward to getting back to a nice once-a-week schedule. To quote the domitable Roger Murtaugh....
Let's get statty:
Matchday 18:
26 people played
Most popular predicted result: Aston Villa & Man Utd WINS (24/26)
Most disputed prediction: Sheffield Utd WIN (5/26)
Matchday 19:
20 people played
Most popular predicted result: Spurs & Chelsea WINS (20/20)
Most disputed prediction: Leicester vs Liverpool (3-4-13 split respectively)
Matchday 20:
21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool WIN (21/21)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Everton (7-7-7 split respectively. I love it when this happens)
Highest odds: AFM (5214/1 - festive hat trick)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (498/1)
Average odds: 1668/1
Best predictor: Aron Kleiman (8/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of you (4/10)
Average score: 5.38/10
Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Norwich vs Spurs DRAW (1/21 - well done David Silverman)
Everyone's results:
And to the leaderboard (>2/3 matchdays; 14/20)
To this week's predictions:
Finally, to the 2020 edition of the FA Cup game. As always, this is a cash game with actual £ prizes, and as always, the prize pot depends on the number of players, so the more who play, the more £ is available to win. To recap the rules:
Stand alone from PL game - you can play this if you've not been involved before
£5 buy in - submitting predictions = agreeing to pay. Please don't make me chase you. If you don't have my details, let me know and I'll be in touch privately.
Pick the club to progress from each tie - no draws! (replays, a.e.t., pens etc all count)
Predictions need to be submitted before kick off
1 point per correct prediction
Prize money payouts to 1st, 2nd 3rd places in May (£ depends on size of prize pot)
Share with anyone who's interested - happy to set up another email chain/WhatsApp group for reminders - the more, the merrier, the richer someone gets...
Somehow, the halfway point of the season is almost upon us. Time's a funny thing. Flies by when it's not crawling. Like paint. Or something less mixed.
In any case, the issue with the whole halfway point is it compounds emotions. If you're a Liverpool fan, that giant lead is the classic 2-0 half-time lead. You should be good enough, but there's always the nagging thought that it could all unravel quite quickly and momentum shifts. It doesn't seem likely at the moment - their consistency is staggering, and in fact it's Leicester and Chelsea who are stumbling, but still, since when is football rational?
Those on a downer though feel like they're hitting the wall in a marathon. What's passed already hardly counts when your legs are screaming and your lungs are burning and your mind knows there's still no end in sight. Yay. West Ham would have felt a bit like this - but then won away at Southampton to keep Pellegrini in paychecks over Xmas. Sheffield United & Burnley also picked up maximum points.
The Spurs revival continues apace with an away win over Wolves, whilst the Moyes/Fellaini Derby ended all square. A fair result for everyone associated with that particular historical highlight. Man City continued their streak of comfortable wins against Arsenal with a, er, comfortable win against Arsenal. Like Arnie arm-wrestling a baby. Finally in a derby that I will never fully understand, Brighton and Palace shared the points after Wilf spanked one in the top corner to rescue a point. A lovely finish if I do say so myself.
Let's get statty:
This week, 26 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool, Chelsea & Leicester WINS (26/26)
Most disputed predicted result: Burnley vs Newcastle (11-7-8 split respectively)
Highest odds: Josh Daniels (3524/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (513/1)
Average odds: 1617/1
Best predictor: Will O'Doherty (6/10)
Worst predictor: Doron Salomon & Brad Allix (2/10)
Average score: 3.85/10
Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (26/26)
Worst predicted result: Everton WIN & Leicester vs Norwich DRAW (0/26)
Everyone's scores:
Leaderboard (>2/3; 12/17):
To the predos - will put up everything until the NYD fixtures to allow anyone who wants to fire and forget about this over the festive period to do so. NY fixture and FA Cup game will be up after Boxing Day.
M18 (Only 9 matches)
M19
M20
Good luck and have a wonderful Impossibilibreak
Editorial note: Writing a blog whilst watching election coverage is difficult. If I were smart, I'd link it to the impact of Brexit on football but frankly, everything has fallen out of my head.
Let's do a quick recap:
Everton turned around their form and beat Chelsea. Liverpool, Spurs and Leicester predictably all won comfortably. Watford drew with Crystal Palace as did Brighton & Wolves. Surprise wins for Man Utd away at the Etihad and Arsenal away at West Ham. Surprising for different reasons. Newcastle & Sheffield United both won to complete the programme.
Let's get statty:
This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted results: Newcastle & Chelsea WINS (24/25)
Most disputed results: Norwich vs Sheff Utd & Brighton vs Wolves (8-8-9 & 8-9-8 split respectively)
The winter period starts with the intensive fixture runs that can lead to all sorts of unexpected results. Obviously not on day 1, but this is often the time where fatigue and rotation throw up the occasional shock - although obviously these days, what is shock? Pipe down Feneley, nobody wants the physiological definition...
Where to start but at the beginning, with an early shock to disprove the above paragraph. A late Jonjo Shelvey equaliser meant City fell ever further behind after Liverpool beat Brighton. Southampton beat woeful Watford whilst Mou made it 3 from 3 to reverse the downwards momentum at Spurs. Away wins for Palace at Burnley and West Ham at Stamford Bridge however fall into the shock column.
Less shocking were results from the Sunday fixtures. Man Utd dropped points against Villa. Leicester beat a poor Everton about to sack their manager whilst Arsenal showed that ridding yourself of a managerial anchor is no panacea, drawing with Norwich. The final draw was at Molineux, in a very lowkey fixture that continued the great start to the season for the Blades.
Then the midweek games, and the first streamed on Amazon. Let's start with that. It was fine. *shrugs*
What it means for the consumer to need yet another subscription is a different story but as all 7 billion people in the world already have Amazon Prime, it's certainly less of an issue than with most new entrants to the football TV rights world.
Palace made it 2 wins in a week with victory over Bournemouth, even after being down to 10 men for much of the game. Burnley likewise repeated their weekend result, with a home defeat against a defiant Man City. Rodri's goal especially wooshy.
John Terry's return to Stamford Bridge was an unhappy one, and I think we can all get behind that, however transiently. Leicester & Southampton both also won as did Wolves against a yo-yoing West Ham. Liverpool won the most one-sided Merseyside derby in 85 years 5-2 and they're looking pretty good to go the season unbeaten at this rate, especially if teams continue to play a high line against their attack. How much data would you like at this point to suggest you play a different tactic?
ARSENAL BRIGHTON
SHEFF UTD NEWC
Let's get statty:
Matchday 14:
22 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea, Liverpool vs Leicester WINS (22/22)
Most disputed prediction: Norwich vs Arsenal (4-6-12 split respectively)
Best predictor: Joe Machta (6/10)
Worst predictor: 4 of you (3/10)
Average score: 4.27/10
Best predicted result: Liverpool & Leicester WINS (22/22)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle vs Man City DRAW and West Ham WIN (0/22)
Matchday 15:
20 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool, Leicester, Chelsea & Arsenal WINS (20/20)
Most disputed prediction: Man Utd vs Spurs (5-6-8 split respectively)
Highest odds: Feneley 576/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 320/1
Average odds: 438/1
Best predictors: ECI & Nick Taylor-Collins
Worst predictors: AFM, Gaj & Joseph Machta (4/10)
Average score: 5.84/10
Best predicted result: Chelsea, Leicester & Liverpool WINS (20/20)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (0/20)
So Maureen's back. Loves a bit of drama does Mo. Comes in. Bish 3-0 up. Bosh. gives up 2 goals. Box Office.
Arsenal, on the other hand are not box office. They're more like a sitcom. Get the viewers and everyone knows the ending already. Car Crash. I've personally never seen anything like that Lacazette equaliser. He looked gutted to have got a point, knowing it would prolong the manager's dead reign. I'm gonna speak medically here. He is pulseless. No brain activity. Lungs have deflated. Only Arsenal would manage to balls up being good, being average and now being bad.
We then hit a run of 5 away wins, which is a nice little statistical streak. Wolves, Leicester, Liverpool, Norwich & Burnley all won away at 3pm on a Saturday. In fact, had Lacazette not scored with the last kick, it would have been a clean sweep of away wins. I have no idea of how rare that is, but it feels pretty rare. Like Epoch defining. We live in marvellous times.
Man City broke the streak with a vital win for them to keep up theoretical pressure on Liverpool over a resurgent Chelsea. Not to fear however, because the Mancunian comedy was, as ever these days, provided by their Salfordian neighbours who really are excellent human beings showing such empathy with their late 90s/early 00s rivals.
Aston Villa then won a game that everyone had forgotten about in the Steve Bruce return. Honestly, if 14 year old me had thought I'd be bored by 4 days of football...
Let's get statty:
This week, 23 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal WIN & Liverpool WIN (23/23)
Most disputed result: Bournemouth vs Wolves (11-6-6 split respectively)
Highest odds: Steven Daniels (4937/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (539/1)
Average odds: 1193/1
Best predictors: Loads of you (6/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of us (3/10)
Average score: 4.5/10
Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted results: Arsenal vs Southampton DRAW & Norwich WIN (0/23)
Everyone's result:
On this: There's often a lot of consternation about this. For reasons that I don't know (and there may well be a simple fix), when you download this from google sheets, it only puts every other name on the x axis. You will see that there are bars with no names attached. As in previous years, it goes RD-Lawro-ECI-WSC and then in alphabetical order (First name-Last name). Your letter codes are the same as in the leaderboard. Because no shows are included in the graph to shame them, the order should stay the same every week, unless new players start. Hopefully this reduces some of the anxiety around receipt of your predictions. A message is displayed on the form to tell you that you have successfuly submitted.
Leaderboard (>2/3 available weeks; 9/13)
To this week's predictions...
I'm putting up the weekend predictions and the midweek predictions for next week because I'm organised and stuff. Blog up next week for the next weekend fixtures will hopefully have results, but can't promise I'll turn it around in time.
Well I'm back to this freezing miserable land where I was drenched with rain before I'd got into the terminal from the stairs. Like 40 metres. What's the deal with that? Dinosaur typing and no jettys. I also missed the ECI predictions again, so if anyone knows them, it would be great it they had an archive sorted...
Let's chat...
I have no idea what happened in football other than Liverpool have won the league and Arsenal are trash who refuse to pull the trigger on their trash manager. Feel free to fill in whatever blanks you like. Think there was international football of no significance but couldn't tell you anything about it other than England *surprisingly* qualified for a tournament that they may have already qualified for if I understood how the Nations League worked.
***HOLD THE PRESSES*** (Ed: Idiot. You just edit the blog after publishing)
Wowsers. Who saw the Poch news coming? I mean yeah he's been moaning for ages and results and performances haven't been great, and it's felt like a breakup was in the offing but didn't see that coming this week. My initial reaction was one of joy. He's a great coach and created something special that will be tough for anyone else, let alone Mourinho to replicate. That's a quite frankly ludicrous appointment where you've taken an older prototype of the Poch model without the emotional buy-in, with loads of narcissism and paid him double. Plus no doubt transfer backing and if that's the case, why not buy players for Poch in the last 2 years. Unless there's a big sale coming - which could only be Kane or Son - but that's a squad that probably needs 5 or 6 new names so let's see how that pans out.
My more considered reaction is that this is further evidence to my theory that managers have a 10 year era to hit their peak, and then they get overhauled. The exception to this was Ferguson, although 1) different football era and 2) he was a tactical chameleon and refreshed his backroom staff with many other coaches don't do - they come as a coaching unit - his strength was man management more than tactical rigour. Poch has peaked as a coach - his ideas aren't fresh. That's not to say they can't be successful - a better resourced squad might help, but there's an internal fatigue and an external "working out" that occurs and I think that point came at Spurs last year. The CL campaign was a final hurrah as a sticking plaster and he probably should have gone in the summer. Let's see how he does after a break on his estancia to recharge and I'm sure he'll end up somewhere decent. Like N5. #EmeryOut
Okey dokey, let's double stat recap:
Matchday 11:
This week, 26 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (26/26)
Most disputed predicted result: Everton vs Spurs (5-7-14 split respectively)
Highest odds: AFM (2691/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (311/1)
Average odds: 1118/1
Best predictors: Nick Taylor-Collins, David Brickman & WhoScored.com (7/10)
Worst predictor: Hillel Chemel (3/10)
Average score: 4.27/10
Best predicted result: Man City WIN (26/26)
Worst predicted result: Arsenal vs Wolves DRAW & Newcastle WIN (1/26 - Will O'Doherty & Jeremy Godley respectively with the plaudits)
Matchday 12:
This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (25/25)
Most disputed predicted result: Newcastle vs Bournemouth (8-10-7 split retrospectively)
Highest odds: AFM (5722/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (1862/1)
Average odds: 3509/1
Best predictor: Ryan Wain (8/10)
Worst predictor: Joe Abbott (3/10)
Average score: 5.72/10
Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (25/25)
Worst predicted result: Spurs vs Sheff Utd DRAW (3/25)
I'm not sure where to start this week. Quite a lot happened...
Friday night saw a scarcely believable 9-0 away win - Leicester scored from only 15 shots on target...a mad conversion rate and were against 10 men for 80 minutes but even so...they're flying...
Next, Man City dispatched Villa, whilst the Everton revival lasted all of a week. Points were shared at Vicarage Road and the publicly-funded complete public sector fiasco that is West Ham's tenancy of the Olympic Stadium. Guess who's blog isn't doing purdah...
Chelsea remembered they had a signing they were allowed to play, so played him and rescued a win from an otherwise 2-1 defeat at Burnley. FIFA should investigate.
Then came Sunday. Which usually follows Saturday. Bizarre.
Let's do the easy one - Newcastle drew with Wolves.
Then the late kick offs - Man Utd won comfortably and still managed to miss 2 penalties. Are they back? I think, just, just, just, that this was also the first of the VAR overturns, about 30 seconds before the higher profile VAR overturn at the Emirates, which turned a 2-0 lead into a nervy 2-1 to take into half time. The 2nd VAR controversy ruled out a late winner (and a career first double for Sokratis) for an invisible foul - I've spoken before about how poor the implementation of VAR has been, and I'm not sure it's worth covering again, but being in the stadium and hearing random bits of official comms over the PA system but basically being left in the dark for a few minutes is no bueno. That's not even going into whether the decisions reached are correct. I'm a VAR advocate in principle but they've had a shocker....
It's not an Arsenal blog so will leave the Xhaka chat for my personal Twitter feed
Liverpool also came from behind - Salah scored his 2nd penalty in 5 months against Spurs to send them back empty handed. Again. ROFL.
Let's get statty:
This week, 22 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (22/22)
Most disputed predicted result: Newcastle vs Wolves (6-5-11 split respectively)
Highest odds: Feneley (579/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (4542/1)
Average odds: 1558/1
Best predictors: Dagmar Dvorak & Joe Machta (8/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (2/10)
Average score: 5.27/10
Best predicted result: Man City WIN (22/22)
Worst predicted result: Arsenal vs Crystal Palace DRAW (1/22 - well done me. Saw that one coming, although admittedly not VAR assisted)
Everyone's results:
We had some chat about people being left off the graph last week. I've looked into this. All the data points are there but for some reason, names are left off and it just leaves spaces (why some columns have no name next to them). So basically, its broadly speaking in alphabetical order from AD to WOD but if anyone knows how to fix it on google sheets that's be great, otherwise I'll go back to Excel which is a pain
There is nothing - NOTHING - quite like the feeling of the joy that come the end of an international break - proper club football returns - being dashed on the rocks of entirely predictable despair.
Hi, I'm Albert Einstein and my falsely attributed quote has been pinned up on the IKEA corkboard in the Emery Lair.
Fortunately, my job protects me from such trials by crushing my soul and spirit in other ways, so I don't have the time to watch utter guff like that. Yay!
Everton had a little post-international break megagame of their own, which they came through with a 2-0 win over West Ham. Villa too continued their good start whilst Chelsea and Leicetser also kept their winning form going. Bournemouth, Norwich, Wolves and Southampton all flew out the blocks like snails, whilst Spurs were lucky to get their draw after another VAR disastAR. That's a joke for the ages
Man City closed the gap to Liverpool who were held to a draw at Old Trafford, thus keeping Ole at the wheel and that's all I've got time for as I'm off to work as thanks for saving my sanity from another Emery mastercass
Let's get statty:
This week, 27 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (27/27)
Most disputed prediction: Everton vs West Ham (11-12-4 split respectively)
Highest odds: Joe Abbott (983/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (127/1)
Average odds: 357/1
Best predictor: David G (7/10)
Worst predictor: Gaj (2/10)
Average score: 4.44/10
Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (27/27)
Worst predicted result: Sheff Utd WIN (1/27 - Nick with the self-loathing)
Usual post-international blog - does anyone really remember much for 2 weeks ago? Other than Lloris dislocating his elbow, Salah diving (again), Ole driving like the 17 year old old who totalled 5 cars in my road at 4am and Watford being rubbish, does anyone remember anything?
Speaking of memory - I'm not quite sure where my brain was with the last blog. It seems that I didn't give it a title nor caption the graphs. A sloppy effort, much like the focus of the Man City team in the last 10 minutes at home to Wolves amirite? What else? Chelsea look good, Everton looks bad and Villa look fun.
Let's get statty:
This week, 28 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal WIN & Man City WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: Watford vs Sheff Utd (14-3-11 split)
Highest odds: Will Castle (7906/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (452/1)
Average odds: 2306/1
Best predictors: Feneley, Steven Daniels & Nick Taylor-Collins (5/10)
Worst predictors: Hillel Chemel & Brad Allix (2/10)
Average score: 3.57/10
Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (28/28)
Worst predicted results: Wolves & Brighton WINS (0/28)
3rd month of the season starts and it's still very bunched. Maybe as expected, given the gulf in class between the mini-leagues but it's still quite an interesting start with nearly a quarter of the season now played.
Liverpool maintained their 5 point lead at the top with a nervy win over Sheffield United - followed by a nervy win this week in the Champions League. They keep winning but look less fluent and more vulnerable than at the start of the season. Man City also won to keep the pressure on and maintain the gap from the chasing pack, fronted by Leicester who are rolling back the years (well, all 4 of them) with some thrilling football so far this term. They thumped Newcastle on the Sunday. Next in line are Arsenal who got a point at Old Trafford in a low quality game that nobody was happy with - either performance or outcome. Joga Boninto.
Also in the score draw club for the week are Villa & Burnley & Bournemouth & West Ham. All the claret & blue. And Bournemouth, who's regional cocktail is red wine and WKD. I think that what Harry Redknapp has on a Saturday night out in Sandbanks. Comfortable home wins were the other results for Chelsea, Spurs Crystal Palace & Watford,
Let's get statty:
This week, 31 people played
Most popular predicted results: Chelsea & Spurs WINS (31/31)
Most disputed prediction: Man United vs Arsenal (7-13-11 split respectively)
Highest odds: Will Castle (5020/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (369/1)
Average odds: 1168/1
And for Jeremy (leave a surname....there are plenty of Jeremys out there...) - the odds are if you place a 10 match accumulator. Rules of the game are in the Rules tab above. It's an optional part though
Best predictors: David Brickman, Dagmar, Josh Gavzey & Adrian Daniels (9/10) - think it's a record to have 4 9s in the same week
Worst predictors: Hillel Chemel (5/10)
Average score: 7.32/10 - season high, but not all time high - as can be found in the Historical Stats tab above.
Best predicted results: Chelsea & Spurs WINS (31/31)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth vs West Ham DRAW (11/31)
Started the last 2 weeks' prediction preamble with "Ah". Considered doing the same this week to create a nice tradition, but didn't want to typecast meself like that.
Well what happened? Friday night's game came down on the South coast and it was an historic first win in Southampton for Bournemouth. Next up game a win from behind for the Foxes against Spurs who do not seem happy campers at the moment. Poch has got a chip on his shoulder and sand in his speedos about something and isn't shy of letting people know...
Man City embarassed Watford for the second time in 4 months but frankly, embarassed themselves by only winning 8-0 when 5-0 up after 18 minutes. Should have been double figures and I'd be fuming if I were a City fan at seeing my team phone it in like that. Burnley also racked up 3 points defeating Norwich, whilst Sheffield United came away from Merseyside with maximum points, as Everton's inconsistency goes into a thirdfourth fifith season decade. Newcastle & Brighton very selflessly played out a dull game last on MOTD to help those insomniacs drift off.
Fortunately, Sunday was action packed. West Ham got one over a lacklustre Man United, whilst Liverpool were slightly lucky by all accounts to extend their 100% record away at Chelsea. Arsenal came back from 10 men and a goal deficit to take all 3 points against Villa - Emery seemingly 10 minutes away from the sack...to quote Mourinho, "I Ccannot speak"
Crystal Palace were also there for the win until a last minute equaliser from Wolves meant the 4th PL game in London on the same day (surely a global record) ended all sqaure.
Let's get statty:
This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (29/29)
Most disputed prediction: Leicester vs Spurs (7-11-11 split)
Highest odds: Steven Daniels (6903/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (1020/1)
Average odds: 2951/1
Best predictor: Josh Gavzey (7/10)
Worst predictor: Steven Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 4.14/10
Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (29/29)
Worst predicted result: Sheffield Utd WIN (0/29)
Ah, delightful. Domestic bliss returns after the international sojourns, and brings with it new flushings of warm weather. Good feelings abound, until kick off. Then, immediately, all those lovely endorphins are shoved out by the stomach churning worry. Well, at least round my gaff.
Obviously not if you're a Liverpool fan. Comfortable win expected and delivered. Same if you're a Man City fan. Ah...
That was slightly unexpected. To be honest, more disappointed in Delia not giving it large to Pep at the final whistle. Brighton also suffered disappointment by conceding a last minute equaliser at home to Burnley. Manchester United and Southampton both showed off their devastating attacking prowess with single goal wins - Man United yet again enjoying a penalty. It is quite remarkable how a team which attacks in such a stilted fashion manages to enjoy the rewards of the same trick over and over. Ironically, Vardy made a bit of a habit of that too. Spurs and Chelsea had big confidence boosting wins against complacently mid-table sides, before 2 other complacent mid-table sides suffered embarassing results on the Sunday. Let's gloss over that, for the sake of the Everton fans amongst us.
Finally, the weekend petered out with the mid-90s Claret & Blue derby ending in a no-score draw. Yawn.
Let's get statty:
But first, a word. You weirdos. We're into season 9 and you should all know the drill by now. I really shouldn't have to tell you that you need to PUT YOUR NAMES ON YOUR PREDICTIONS
4 of you. Honestly. I should deduct 10 points from you all, but instead, I've shown my mercy and worked out who 3 of you were. There is still 1 blank unclaimed score - if you believe it is yours (ie you played and aren't on the graph below) - let me know and I'll add it to the database. After sending you a gif of my disapproval
This week, 31 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (31/31)
Most disputed prediction: Wolves vs Chelsea (10-10-11 split)
Ah, the first international break of the season, or to give it its latin name Odiosis Sabbati. Regular readers will know my gross indifference to international football, unless I'm winning the Impossibilitee World Cup competition, in which case it's LITERALLY THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
In any case, for this batch of internationals, I couldn't tell you who is in the England squad, who they're playing or what was the score. I don't even know if they're qualifiers or friendlies. So about time the good stuff is back.
Been Jonesing for some more of that adidas good good in my life anyway.
The problem with this specific blogpost - the post-international one, is that of course, nobody can really remember what happened before the break. I could reel off the scores and do the usual one line summary, but even rudimentary analysis is beyond me at this point. It was 10 days ago people. I'm not Dominic O'Brien, Don't ever say you don't learn things from me.
So let's skip all that, gloss over the fact that Harry Kane is a filthy cheat who benefits from the media protection serially afforded to England captains and get on with the stats...
Last time out:
31 people played. Important public service announcement - in the last 2 weeks, some of you have been so keen, you've played twice! When you submit your predictions, a message should come up saying predictions submitted! If you don't see it, feel free to ask me if I've got them
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (31/31)
Most disputed prediction: West Ham vs Newcastle ( 17-7-7 split respectively)
Highest odds: Will Castle (3338/1)
Lowest odds: Joe Abbot (478/1)
Average odds: 1287/1 - btw guys, you don't need to give me the /1 (ie 1000/1, just write as 1000)
Best predictor: Brad Allix (9/10)
Worst predictors: Daniel Wigman & Joseph Machta (3/10)
Average score: 5.35/10
Best predicted results: Man City & Liverpool WINS (30/31)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea vs Sheff Utd DRAW (0/31)
3 games in and the only 100% record left belongs to the runners up from last season. A long way left to go still, and more crucially from a personal perspective than points on the board at present is the fact that only 4 teams retain a 0 in the L column. Of course - Liverpool and Man City account for 2 of those, so that's still quite worrying but let's see where we go with that....
Friday night's game saw Villa get their first points on the board with a win over Everton. Fellow newcomers Norwich looked to be on their way to a plucky result against Chelsea until Abraham scored his second with a quarter of the game to go thus hopefully buying him a longer spell in the Chelsea side...
As an aside, he looks nothing like his son....
(cracking joke there for the Russian linguists amongst you....)
Brighton's bright start has been tempered with a home defeat to Southampton and frankly, Saturday was awaywintastic - Leicester and West Ham also cashing in. The dramatic result came at Old Trafford in one of those delightful moments for everyone who's not a Man Utd fan - a brilliant finish in the last minute from newboy James looked to have rescued a point after Rashford missed a penalty earlier, only for Palace to flood up the other end and smash one right through De Gea to take all 3 points. The Ecstasy to Agony journey is delicious when it's not yours to make...
More away wins on Sunday for Man City and Newcastle before last gasp penalty equaliser stopped the visiting clean sweep. 7/10 for the weekend...
Let's get statty:
This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man Utd, Spurs & Man City WINS (29/29)
Most disputed prediction: Watford vs West Ham (12-12-5 split respectively)
Best predictors: Gaj Thiru & Josh Gavzey (6/10)
Worst predictor: David Silverman (1/10)
Average score: 3.86/10
Best predicted result: Man City WIN (29/29)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle & Crystal Palace WINS (0/29)
Everyone's score:
And now....for the first time in 2019/20 - the leaderboard! For those new to the game this season, to qualify, you have to play >2/3 of matchweeks - this is to prevent you smashing a 9/10 on week one and then not playing for the rest of the season. It's your average score over all games played. It'll roll all season and at the end, whoever's sitting pretty on top gets the Impossibilitee trophy to keep for next season, engraved with their name on it....
Here it is after Matchday 3:
Obviously early days, small samples etc so will be a lot of movement in the next few weeks. This is fortunate for me....
To this week's predictions:
So that's it for this week, good luck all. Remember if you want to get twitter/email or whatsapp reminders (in a group with no other chat) then let me know and will add you accordingly. You know where to find me...or if you don't, someone who guided you here does....
This week I've found myself in the Big Apple, and so had a taste of the life that some of my favourite football amateur "pundits" have with regard to timings. Arsenal played the early kick off this week - a 7.30am start for me. It's one thing as a one off to do this, but I'm pretty sure that if the gods had intervened and I'd been transported across the Atlantic when I was say, 14 (i.e. hooked already), I reckon I'd have turned into a casual fan. So basically, massive kudos to all those football fans who do stupid things for their regular lives in order to remain up to date with goings on many miles away.
In truth, I've not spent my holiday keeping massively up to date with the other games - cursory glance at the results and a look at weekly VAR controversy which I don't think needs relitigating. Newcastle and Watford continued their poor starts with away defeats to Norwich and Everton respectively. Liverpool held on for a win at Southampton where the curse of the ex nearly came back to haunt them. Villa also lost their home return to a Bournemouth side who seem more invigorated this season. Brighton & West Ham played out a score draw, as did Man City & Spurs in a statistical quirk of a game. Sheffield United got a good result against a Palace side struggling to find their mojo, whilst Leicester eventually turned up to spoil the Lamps Homecoming. The weekend was completed by an absolute TekABoo of a goal from Neves to rescue a point for Wolves against Man Utd.
Let's get statty:
This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (29/29)
Most disputed prediction: Norwich vs Newcastle (11-12-6 split respectively)
Let's start with an apology. We've had loads of new players this season and I was quite lazy with the first blog and it was remiss of me to not explain the rules, so I thought I'd direct you to the sub-pages above that explain the game.
Impossibilitee started out as an accumulator-accumulator - a few people did 10-match accumulators and always lost, so it was a way to see who was the least worst. It's evolved since, and has used various statistical prediction models (EuroClubIndex, Who Scored.com) and Ex-Pro (Lawro) as comparators. We've also utilised previously Stan Collymore who has been dropped because 1) he's flakey and 2) he's a complete *$£*!&%* of a human being who tried a pile-on on me so he's barred, and the FinkTank, now sadly departed. If you know of any other models to include, please let me know.
The accumulator odds bit then stems from this - if you do a 10 match accumulator, stick in the odds (to /1, don't gimme a complex ting) for comparison and to go into my big database which one day I'll sell to someone for #mining and make billions.
How this works, as you may have worked out, is that you choose a result for each game. You get a point if you get it right. That gives you a weekly score which is averaged out over the course of the season and put onto a leaderboard (if you play >2/3 of available weeks so you cant bang out a 9/10n on week 1 and then never play again). Every week, I publish a blog with the following structure:
I bang on about some nonsense. Sometimes I'm proud of what I write. Other times I phone it in. Watcha gonna do. I've just decided I'll take guest blogs here for this season - pitch me if you want in
Very brief superficial recap of the football as it's nearly a week later and everyone knows what happened
Bit of basic stats & results outcome
Leaderboard (from Matchday 4 blog)
New predictions
Hopefully that clears up some of the confusion regarding everything before - my apologies for not doing it properly the first time....
So, the new season starts and immediately, we turn from yearning for the football to return to complaining about the obvious that was always going to occur - the implementation of VAR.
I've held forth here before about my stance on VAR, but my blog, my rules and if you don't like it....scroll down. I'm pro-VAR in concept. Yes, sport is entertainment and should be fun. However, the game that the inital laws were laid down for and what it is today are markedly different. The improvements in sports science, materials technology, even groundsmanning along with the high financial stakes for failure mean that the old adage of "evening itself out" should be consigned to the scrapheap. It's not reasonable to expect humans not to make error and so systems need to reflect and support this (oh hello there day job...).
Football is late to the VAR party - look at how many other sports have incorporated technology to improve accuracy. There's nothing magical about football which means the same benefits wouldn't apply - it's just all in the execution.
It's not right yet. 2 things really have come up from this matchday - both entirely predictable, and indeed, previously discussed by those far more familiar with the VAR world than I. These issue are:
Offside
In-stadium experience
It's worth pointing out that, like Brexit, the lines are already pretty entrenched between those who are pro & against, and no amount of evidence to the contrary will change these views. The justifications just keep shifting. My feelings are that we should be looking to improve the game, and technology is a part of that, and so to throw the concept out because it's not perfect is ridiculous. We need to improve how the in-stadium communication occurs - ie mandatory screens, miking up refs and listening in to the VAR conversation, and crucially, why has the decision been upheld/changed. With regard to offside, all it's done is highlight how flawed the rule in in current context. Like the taxcode, the devil lies in the complexity. If this is the nidus for reviewing and rewording the law, then I'm all for that. The principle was to avoid goalhanging, not to deal in micrometres. Until such time as wearable tech/ball chipping allows for the level of accuracy required to look at decisions in that detail, I'd relax the rules down to "visible daylight" and give the attacking team the benefit of the doubt. In this context, where the technology remains subjective, we're looking for clear and obvious error, rather than perfection.
Anyway, to briefly recap on the football, Liverpool and Man City started the season off by humbling the peasants sent to them as fodder on the opening weekends. Surprise result was probably at Vicarage Road where Brighton's bright young thing, Graham Potter went home with a great 3-0 away win in the bag. Spurs rallied late after it looked like a brave point was there for newly promoted Villa, whilst fellow newcomers Sheffield Utd looked good in their return against now-established Bournemouth. Burnley started well against a Southampton side who have unimpressed for a few years under various managers - more of the same on the South Coast this year? Palace, Everton, Leicester & Wolves all failed to trouble each other in the race for 7-10th ('arf 'arf) whilst a delightful Aubameyang goal was enough to get Arsenal all 3 points in their relatively drab opener against a Newcastle side who seem to be fitting into the Southampton bracket now. Finally, in the battle of the young club icons, Solksjaer took bragging rights after the youngest side in the history of humanity, without a midfield, took apart a Chelsea side heavy on potential, but light on experience. 4-0 may be harsh, but it's done the #narrative no harm.
Finally, finally for this week - let's get statty:
This week, 32 people played! A new Impossibilitee PB!
Most popular predictions: Liverpool & Spurs WINS (32/32)
Most disputed prediction: Man Utd vs Chelsea (13-11-8 split respectively)
Highest odds: Andrew Feneley (252,851/1)
Lowest odds: Will Castle (608/1) - curated.
Average odds: 32,431/1 (7940/1 without outliers)
Best predictors: Loads of you (7/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of us (4/10)
Average score: 5.40/10
Best predicted results: Liverpool & Spurs WINS (32/32)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (0/32)
Everyone's scores - hopefully you can work out who you are. Your tag will stay with you forever now:
To this week's predos:
Good luck guys! And remember, the more the merrier - please share with anyone you think might be interested.
Welcome back all - hope you all had a lovely summer break. Speaking strictly with my red & white tinted specs on, I was very ready for a few weeks of no football which made me slightly forgive & forget. Until that first failed offside trap, at which point I reserve the right to ramp the fury right back up again.
It's been a reasonably quiet transfer window without much of the hype and saga of previous years. The business that's been done seems to have been done reasonably efficiently and those deals that seem stupidly expensive (ie Zaha £80m, Maguire £90m) seem to have reached dead ends relatively quickly - is there a change in the transfer ecosystem somehow?
Edit: Obviously the Maguire deal was then agreed about 30 minutes after publishing. Great trolling from Woodward there.
Manager-wise - loads of new faces, and some very old - Bruce back in after Rafa finally called it quits at the Toon. It'll be interesting and refreshing to see how many operate in the Premier League.
Loads of new kits - again there's a local bias but I've considered spending all my money at the club shop - Brighton, Spurs and Wolves also have nice looking shirts. Some horror shows too - Watford, Southampton and Norwich the worst for my money. Speaking of new aesthetics, as you can see, we're going for a new aesthetic, and all the historical pages are now up to date.
So, what are we going to see - well this season, as you can see, we're going for a new system. No more comments - we're going with last decade's tech and using a Google form to collect the data. This will hopefully be more efficient and solve some of the tech issues that some of you have had with leaving comments.
So, without further ado, let's start with the season predictions...
And next up, let's look at the Matchday 1 predictions:
Reminder that the more the merrier, so if you've got friends, family, colleagues, animals, enemies or anyone else who you think might be interested to play, especially given how easy it is now, then share the blog. Will be continuing with the social media/Whatsapp reminders - so if you want in to the whatsapp group then be in touch. Good luck all!
This blog is very delayed. Basically, since this game I've had an absolutely hectic schedule and when I've been off, the last thing I've wanted to do was sort out the blog - so took advantage of the fact that there were no further games to stick it on the back burner. Apologies for those of you waiting with baited breath to find out how the season ended.
The final day threw up no surprises - at least, none that changed the trajectory of the season. Man City very briefly went behind at Brighton, so for one minute, Liverpool were winning the league. However, they hit back instantly and were in front shortly after and that was that. Chelsea and Spurs held on to get top 4.
There seems little sense in rehashing the events of 3 weeks ago, so instead let's rattle out the stats, get straight to the leaderboard and then review the predictions made at the start of the season! We'll then move on to the FA Cup game for those who played.
Let's get statty:
This week, 18 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool & Southampton WINS (18/18)
Most disputed result: Watford vs West Ham (6-6-6 split respectively)
Nobody submitted odds...
Best predictors: Steven Daniels & Joe Machta (7/10)
Worst predictor: Andrew Feneley (2/10)
Average score: 4.67/10
Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (18/18)
Worst predicted results: Cardiff WIN & Southampton vs Huddersfield DRAW (0/18)
Everyone's scores:
And now...to the leaderboard...
Usual rules apply (>2/3; 25/37)
Congrats to the ECI, who, like Man City, just held off their closest rival to take the title. They become the 1st player to win multiple titles - number 2 for them. Congrats to Joe Abbott who was the best human player. Adrian Daniels brings up the rear, quite a way off the pace. Of note, Lawro had a shocker, which given he usually goes for a Liverpool win every week, and they actually won nearly every week is quite impressive.
The remainder - those who didn't play enough weeks to get onto the main leaderboard, in order of games played.
Let's look at some of the pre-season predictions. 14 of you were kind enough to furnish me with your predictions before Matchday 1 which I was prescient enough to tabulate in August, saving me loads of time now. Some people can feel pretty happy with their work, others...less so:
League Champions: 13 correctly went for Man City (RD, DS, JA, DSIL, JG, DB, TN, AK, SR, DWIG, JK, JMAC, WOD). Josh Daniels was more than slightly optimistic that Unai would come in and take the title.
2-3-4: Nobody got this totally right, although everyone had Liverpool to finish in the CL places. Lots of misplaced optimism for Arsenal & Man Utd. AK gets special mentions for being the only person who thought Spurs would still get top 4. 7 votes for Chelsea (RD, TN, JD, SR, JK, JMAC, WOD). On Mastermind scoring, I'm giving it to Will O'Doherty, who got LFC & CFC in their correct places (4 points). He thought Mourinho would have a decent season though...
Relegated: Everyone had Cardiff to go down. 12 had Huddersfield to join them (RD, DS, JA, JG, TN, AK, SR, DWIG, JK, JMAC, WOD). The 3rd team was trickier - Wolves (RD) was a bad call in hindsight, Spurs (DSIL) might have been wishful thinking. Brighton, Bournemouth and Southampton were all popular choices, but kudos to Joe Abbott who went for Fulham to get the perfect hat-trick.
League Cup: Nobody went rogue for the first silverware of the season. Arsenal and Spurs were thought to be good candidates to fill their trophy cabinets. Joni Kleiman was a GK substitution away from sitting all smug and alone with a Chelsea win. Ultimately though, it was Man City who triumphed leaving 6 smiley faces (RD, JA, DSIL, TN, AK, WOD)
FA Cup: Interestingly, and maybe it's a sign of priorities/squad size, but there was a big difference in predictions for the 2nd cup. Joe Abbott the only person to go for Man City, and therefore the only person to correctly predict a Man City domestic treble, to go with his 2nd place in the Leaderboard and getting all 3 relegated teams correctly. We might have to rename him from Yo to Auracle, after his favourite Ivorian Right Back. Several thought this would be the trophy to end the Klopp drought - I think with hindsight, he'll live with the disappointment. The usual smattering of Arsenal/Man Utd/Chelsea, which is mandatory when talking about the FA Cup, but some blue sky thinking from Will O'Doherty saw him pick 1995 winners Everton. They of course went out in the 4th Round to Milwall, after squeezing past Lincoln City 2-1 in Round 3.
1st Manager to go: Let's start with the atrocious choices. 4 (& 1/2) people went for Javi Gracia who ended up having a pretty good season all things considering. Nobody actually went for the correct manager which was Slavisa Jockanovic at Fulham. Next up was Mark Hughes, correctly predicted by David Brickman. Mourinho was the most popular option with 5 guess (and the next to go), whilst Hodgson and Warnock had 2 votes each. He of course, wasn't fired but did that weird Ostrich thing so should have been...
Best new signing: I was going to use WhoScored.com data to decide this but there are a lot of players and it all became a bit complicated. So it's decided by me, by the powers invested in me by me.
Will O'Doherty got sucked into the post-World Cup fever that always happens and went for Yerry Mina. He played only 13 games. The Toffees clearly were highly rated going into the season, with Josh Daniels also picking from their squad - Bernard his choice. Josh Gaon the other wildcard, choosing Seri. In fairness, at the time this could have been a blinder. Narrator voice: it wasn't
Everyone else went for a big club signing. In third place, I've gone for Lucas Torreira (DSIL) who looked brilliant when he played, but missed a couple of chunks of the season. As runner up, Naby Keita (DS, SR, DWIG, WOD) who we'd waited a year for, and then took a while to get established, but ended the season showing what the hype had been about. However, for me, there was a clear winner - correctly picked by Joni Kleiman & Tarek Najm, and that was Alisson who was such a significant improvement on his predecessors that he took Liverpool to 1 point off a League & European double.
Special mentions to Jorginho and Mahrez who were both good but didn't revolutionise their sides as hoped.
Worst new signing: Mahrez (JG, DWIG, JK) and Seri (JD) managed to get themselves in both categories. Fight it out amongst yourselves kids. I went for Deulofeu which wasn't a great look, whilst Mitrovic (DS), Sokratis (WOD) & Richarlison (TN) were all fine enough. Actually, I'm upgrading Mitrovic - he was pretty good.
So, my top (bottom) 3: in 3rd place, Kepa (AK) who was fine, but not £70m good. He was the most expensive goalkeeper to arrive, and was overshadowed by many others. In 2nd place, Fred (JA, DSIL, SR, JMAC) - the popular choice before the season. £50m did look poorly spent initially and he was quickly out of favour. A late season comeback of sorts under OGS suggests there might be a future for him at Old Trafford though. The winner however, in an inspired bit of predicting is Joe Hart, as called by David Brickman. He's gone from England & Man City no.1 to the Burnley reserves via Turin in little over 2 years. Sterling work from the big man - head & shoulders above the rest.
Top Scorer: A little easier to call here: Aubameyang was popular (RD, DSIL, JD, SR, JMAC & WOD). Salah has fans too in Tarek Najm & Aron Kleiman, Nobody saw Mane coming. Kane & Aguero the other nominees.
Golden Gloves: 6 calls for De Gea to repeat his past heroics fell on deaf ears and clubbed feet. 5 went for Ederson who was level on 20 clean sheets going into the last game, but conceded from Glenn Murray whilst Alisson kept a clean sheet at Wolves to win outright. Tarek Najm saw this coming. Single votes for Leno & Lloris were optimistic at best.
Will Harry Kane score in August? 9 correctly called this to be the year that the streak was broken (RD, DS, JA, AK, JD, SR, DWIG, JK, WOD). Josh Daniels gets an extra half a point for correctly predicting that it's be against Fulham, which he promptly loses for predicting that it'd be an own goal...
Overall, Tarek & Auricle had the best predictions, Josh Gaon the worst, only predicting Man City to win the league correctly.
Congratulations to all.
FA Cup Game
Now, I thought I was updated to the QF, but I can't find that post, so will go from there:
R6:
6 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (6/6)
Most disputed prediction: Millwall vs Brighton (2-4 split)
Best predicted result: Man City WIN (6/6)
Worst predicted result: Wolves WIN (1/6 - Feneleys)
Best predictor: Feneleys (4/4)
Worst predictors: Steven Daniels, Josh Daniels & Joe Machta (2/6)
SF:
6 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (6/6)
Most disputed prediction: Watford vs Wolves (2-4 split)
Best predicted result: Man City WIN (6/6)
Worst predicted result: Watford WIN (2/6)
Best predictor: Doron Salomon & Steven Daniels (2/2)
Worst predictors: The rest (1/2)
Final:
6 people plated
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (5/6)
Best predicted result...
Best Predictors: All those who weren't Steven Daniels (5/6)
Cumulative graph:
Total scores therefore:
So joint winners were Doron & I (2 trophies in a year), with the Feneleys & Josh Daniels joint 3rd place.
Monies to be transferred across imminently.
Thank you all once again for playing this season, enjoy your summers and we'll be back, full of sunburn and optimism in August.
