S5: Final Leaderboard & FA Cup Final

The midweek action had left very little to be decided. Which club nabbed the 4th Champions League spot, and therefore which teams qualified for the Europa League, who got more prize money for finishing higher in the table and finally, whether St Totteringham would make his annual appearance.

Before all that was decided, we had some excitement up at Old Trafford - and not the usual last-day-of-the-season type. The official line was a training device left behind - which calls into account the competency of the training company and the success of the exercise, but events were pretty scary as they unfolded live - the spectre of Paris looms. As a regular attender, this kind of thing really spooks me - the half-hearted frisking offered in the outer circle at the Emirates isn't really fit for purpose. Loads of people praised the Police and stewards for a calm, timely evacuation of OT but 1 security expert I follow on Twitter pointed out that it took nearly an hour to evacuate a public space which a suspected explosive device in it - he pointed out that this wouldn't be considered particularly efficient in many other places.

Anyway, it was all alright in the end, but for the 2nd time this season, the fragility of the football bubble was brought home.

On the pitch, Man City did enough to all but mathematically secure 4th place, whilst Southampton took advantage of a distracted Crystal Palace side to secure Europa League over West Ham who conceded a late winner to Stoke. The Hammers can play in Europe next year if Man Utd win the FA Cup on Saturday.

And so to the battle for 2nd place. The Spurs collapse over the last month has been both predictable in it's Spursyness, but also in it's Pochettinoness. That hasn't made it less funny though, and the door was opened a crack for Arsenal to overtake on the last day. Suffice it to say, that crack was enough to stick a tonne of TNT in and blow the bloody doors off.  Newcastle were doing their bit being 2-0 up at half time, whilst Arsenal had a nervy 1-0 lead. Mitrovic's red for a filthy leg-breaker of a tackle, and Lamela's strike made for squeaky bottoms at the Emirates, but a remarkable 15 minute spell saw Newcastle score (dive!), Giroud score 2 to secure the Arsenal win and then another 2 to rub salt in from the Toon.

Jamie Vardy had his party on the Monday, and Man Utd didn't score 19 on the Tuesday - and that's the PL season done.

So, let's get statty:
This week, 25 people played
The most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (25/25)
Most disputed result: Stoke vs West Ham (6-9-10 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels 16198/1
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon 892/1
Average odds: 8948/1

Best predictor: Doron - 7/10
Worst predictors: My mother & sister - 3/10
Average score: 5.08/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (25/25)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle WIN (3/25 - all delusional/prophetic gooners)

Swing: Ayew's equaliser for Swansea through out 15 people's predictions

Everyone's scores:

The final leaderboard for Season 5 (>2/3; 25/37)

So Dagmar holds on for a maiden season victory. EuroClubIndex wins "Model of the Year", whilst reigning champ Josh Gaon does a reverse-Leicester...oh dear.

We'll get the trophy engraved and presented ASAP and then photos to follow!

All the other particpants this season as follows:

So, to the FA Cup game:

Quarter Finals:

9.25/13 participated
Arsenal to beat Watford was the most popular choice (9/13). It was also the worst choice (Watford WIN 0/13)
Everton vs Chelsea was the most disputed choice (4-5 split), whilst Palace winning was the best predicted result (7/13)
8 people also thought West Ham would win!

All 2s and 1s this round - see below!

Semi Finals:
12/13 participated
Man Utd to WIN was the most popular prediction and the best predicted (9/13)
Palace vs Watford was a 6-6 split.
Lots of 2s, I was the only 0 who actually predicted...

All the results:

So Tarek has a 1 point lead over me, Steven Daniels, Joe Abbott and Josh Daniels - Zoe & Doron could also potentially split the prize pot.

So to the final prediction of the season:

FA Cup Final:

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United - Prediction TBC

I'm happy for people to message me privately or post comments below if they don't care - this doesn't give Tarek the tactical advantage of being able to German everyone....

Good luck to all the FA Cup participants, results blog to follow next week and thank to everyone who played the main game all season - hope you'll all be back in August for Impossibilitee Season 6!

S5M38: Playing for pride (and Automatic CL Qualification)

The midweek games confirmed a few things:

• Arsenal finish Top 4 again. This could be 2nd - 4th depending on this weekend's results
• Spurs are also guaranteed automatic qualification - I think this was only true after the Man City vs Arsenal draw although I might be wrong...
• West Ham fans love a headbutt - against a bus. What kind of idiot headbutts a moving bus? 
• They said farewell to their historic ground with an awful performance against Swansea, followed by a rousing comeback against Man Utd. Bilic's season in a nutshell.
• All the stick for their post-game show thing - these things are universally awful. But I stayed after Arsenal's last game at Highbury (10 years ago!) for about 2 hours for something equally shite (Roger Daltry's "Highbury Highes" song composed specially...) so they have full empathy from me. 
• Sunderland are safe - and Big Sam does it again. Dunno about that nauseating conducting thing, but credit where credit's due...
• John Terry's red card. Just amazing. Good riddance
• Newcastle are down. I genuinely don't understand how a side too good to be relegated manages to do it TWICE in a decade. Once is careless enough...but if you can't beat Villa....
• Norwich are also down. They've really struggled to get to grips with the league this year - finding a balance between solidity and creativity
• Martinez has outstayed his Merseyside welcome. You'd have to say that's probably the peak for his career too....he was a young promising manager once upon a time, but now you can see the same flaws in all his teams, you have to assume that's his genuine ability. Can't see a big club taking him on - his next move would probably be to a defensively sound team where he can give a boost to the attacking play...like his 1st year at Everton. Weird that they sacked him with 1 game left....why not wait until Monday?

That's after the weekend saw Leicester lift the title in front of a raucous crowd & Andrea Bocelli! Mna Utd scraped a win and you'd have to say that if/when they finish 5th, that's van Gaal gone. Still think Mourinho would be a bigger mistake though - I think his shtick is also done now.

Let's get statty:

This week, 25 people played

Most popular predicted result: West Ham WIN (24/25)

Most disputed result: Spurs vs Southampton (10-7-8 split respectively)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels 6984/1

Lowest odds: Doron Salomon 1463/1

Average odds: 4394/1

Best predictors: Dinkin & Nick Jones (6/10)

Worst predictors: Nearly everyone else (3/10)

Average score: 3.88/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN 923/25)

Worst predicted result: Aston Villa vs Newcastle DRAW (0/25). Honourable mention to Feneley who was the only one to predict a Swansea WIN. 

Swing: Defoe's winner for Sunderland deprived 10 of a point.

Everyone's scores:

Penultimate leaderboard (>2/3; 25/36)

For the final time this league season:

Arsenal vs Aston Villa - ARSENAL

Chelsea vs Leicester - DRAW

Everton vs Norwich - EVERTON

Man Utd vs Bournemouth - MAN UTD

Newcastle vs Spurs - SPURS

Southampton vs Crystal Palace - SOUTHAMPTON (FA CUP FINAL HOLIDAY FOR PALACE)

Stoke vs West Ham - DRAW

Swansea vs Man City - DRAW

Watford vs Sunderland - WATFORD

WBA vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Good luck guys!

S5M37: Jamie Vardy's having his party

At approximately 9.50pm on Monday night, the world officially turned upside down. Hazard's late equaliser did for Spurs and Leicester bloody City were confirmed as Premier League champions.

It's a remarkable acheivement, and well deserved - they've led from the front for most of the season, initially scoring goals for fun and then tightening up at the back. They've only used about 12 players and every single prediction that the fun would start to fade was shrugged off as one by one the challengers failed to keep up.

As an Arsenal fan, I'm part-gutted, part-incredulous and part-relieved. As a football fan, I'm loving it. The 2 Leicester fans I know are still in disbelief. It's been coming for a long time, but there was always the fear that they'd fall at the last.

So...no caveats, no commentary, just congratulations to Leicester and let's see what happens in August.

We've a lot to get through this week, so, without Freddie Adu...

Matchday 32:

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea & West Ham WINS (21/21)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs Spurs (6-8-7 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels 3862/1
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon 3581/1
Average odds: 3722/1 (they were the only odds)

Best predictors: Dagmar & Menachem (8/10)
Worst predictor: Sam Ruback (2/10)
Average score: 5.52/10

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: West Ham vs Crystal Palace DRAW (0/21)

No swing for this post as it's taken me long enough already.

Everyone's scores in a large graph at the end.

Matchday 33:

This week, 26 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (26/26)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Arsenal (5-8-13 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 18008/1
Lowest odds: Feneley 717/1
Average odds: 4895/1

Best predictor: Nick Collins (9/10)
Worst predictor: Tarek (3/10)
Average score: 6.12

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (26/26)
Worst predicted result: Swansea WIN (3/26)

Matchday 34:

This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (25/25)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Watford & Chelsea vs Man City (9-7-9 & 7-9-9 splits respectively)

Highest odds: AFM 215,121/1 (!!!)
2nd Highest odds: Doron 6632/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 1720/1
Average odds: 34,762/1 (4702 excluding the anomaly)

Best predictors: Tarek & Me (7/10)
Worst predictors: Doron & David Silverman (2/10)
Average score:

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (24/25)
Worst predicted result: Arsenal vs Crystal Palace DRAW (0/25)

Matchday 35 (reduced to 7 games) - apologies for including the Crystal Palace match:

This week, 23people played
Most popular predicted results: Southampton & Spurs WINS (23/23)
Most disputed result: Bournemouth vs Chelsea (5-6-12 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon (41/1)
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon (41/1)
Average odds: 41/1

Best predictors: Will, Dinkin & Josh Daniels (5/7)
Worst predictors: A lot of people (3/7)
Average score: 3.65/7

Best predicted result: Southampton WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: Spurs vs WBA DRAW (0/23) - the one time everyone thought Spurs would do it, they Spurs'd it up. Must remember this for next season...

Note to everyone: from next season, where there are reduced fixtures, I'm going to times the result by whatever is needed to give a pro-rata score out of 10 as to not discriminate against those who participate in these weeks. I'd apply it now, but not a big fan of changing the rules halfway through a season.

Matchday 36:

This week, 23 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Watford WINS (21/23)
Most disputed result: Stoke vs Sunderland & Man Utd vs Leicester (5-8-10 & 8-10-5 splits respectively)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels 13956/1
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels 4622/1
Average odds: 8471/1

Best predictor: Dagmar (8/10)
Worst predictor: Dinkin & Doron (3/10)
Average score: 5.26

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Watford WINS (21/23)
Worst predicted result: Swansea WIN (1/23 - congrats to Feneley)

A massive thank you to Josh & Steven Daniels for collecting the predictions of the various models (& Lawro) whilst I was away. Stan Collymore's blanks are because he sometimes doesn't predict. Think I'm going to drop him from next year. Too unreliable.

So, to everyone's results:

Series 1: M32, Series 2: M33 and so on...

And now to the leaderboard...

With 2 weeks to play, can Dagmar lose it from here? Mathematically possible, but we shall see...

Finally, to this week's predictions:

Norwich vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Aston Villa vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Bournemouth vs WBA - BOURNEMOUTH

Crystal Palace vs Stoke - STOKE

Sunderland vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

West Ham vs Swansea - WEST HAM

Leicester vs Everton - LEICESTER

Spurs vs Southampton - DRAW

Liverpool vs Watford - DRAW

Man City vs Arsenal - DRAW*

Good luck guys, any issues with the above results....form an orderly queue...