S12M25: Enough

I pride  myself on, for the most part being a rationale actor. Logic is beautiful. Easily deconstructed narratives are silly. As previously discussed, I'm a footballing snob. 

I know and enjoy being swept up in an emotive maelstrom, but equally, enjoy the post-hoc backtracking as the brain takes over from the spleen, which I'm sure is the part of the the body responsible for venting abuse at referees.

If some historic civilisation had come up with an apocryphal story about the organs fighting for supremacy, I'd want to know that they'd put the brain at the bottom. Stuck up stupid organ. Because when push comes to shove, the heart always comes out on top. With TDD. With highs and lows. With massive overreactions to single events - anecdote triumphing over data. 

Whilst I'm at it, evolution is stupid too.

Anyway, the point of all this, is that we're not even 2/3 of the way through this season and so there is literally everything to play for.

Well, not literally. Arsenal and Man City are not getting relegated. Southampton and Leeds will not win the league. But LITERALLY everything else.

As we saw. Arsenal rescued 1 point and then 2 more at the expense of Emi Martinez. Brentford got a similarly late goal to rescue a point at home to Palace. The high scoring weekend continued with single goal victories for Fulham (great late goal against the run of play), Southampton (great free kick for JWB) and Everton who I think we can call safe now. Bournemouth also got a very valuable 3 points at Molineux.

The other late goal was at the City Ground where Forest scored with their only shot on target with 5 to play to hold Man City to a draw. Momentum swinging like the cradle of Sir Isaac.

Newcastle pressed self-destruct on entering the pitch vs Liverpool - 2 goals and a GK red card inside 22 mins. Liverpool kindly then took the button off them so it didn't get too embarrassing, but then forgot to give it back before they went home and ....well...Tuesday happened.

Comfortable home wins on the Sunday for Man Utd & Spurs. Nothing much to say there.

S12M24: Inconceivable

 As soon as the news broke of the VAR farce last weekend, I basically lost it. I consume a huge amount of footballing content during the week and expend far too much energy on a past-time to be healthy.

But, for about 4 days, I just disengaged. The problem with writing a week after the events is that the world moves on, and people have had their say. The other problem is that the world moves on - but the issue remains, unresolved.

So where do we go? How did it get to this?

Let's start with a simple premise: Football has evolved from the days of yore. The game is faster, players are athletic monsters in a way that they were not even 20 years ago. The financial consequences are higher and the scrutiny, both in terms of eyeballs, but also the wider context of media - traditional and social is much, much greater and, frankly, impossible to manage than ever before.

So, there's a decision to be made: Is football a game in which. human error is part of the spectacle, as it has been for the 140 odd years of its codified existence, or, is it now an industry in which near-perfection must be reached.

The latter point was decided and for all the harking back to another time - that realistically was the only outcome given the money at stake.

So then, why has the paradigm shift not occurred at an organisational level? Clubs extract every benefit they can. Leagues attempt to be run in professional capacities. Only the regulators (and the officials, as regulators of the matches are in this boat too) seem to think themselves immune from the marching long arc of history.

This - this is how you end up with nonsense like last weekend with 2 catastrophic errors in the supposed failsafe. Forgetting to draw lines. Looking at the wrong player to draw a line. This is stuff that a 10 year old fanatical fan could have got right. 

As Mikel Arteta said, "I don't want an apology. I want my 2 points" - but we know that's not how it works.

I was pro-VAR. I frankly still am. I was pro-goal line technology, and semi-automated AI, and miking up the officials, and I am pro-timing being removed from their purview and any other adjustments to the job that allow for a better outcome.

Arsene Wenger ultimately declined for many reasons but one of which, I am convinced was bandwidth. He too, was from another era and refused to relinquish his grip on areas he really should not have been focused on as First Team Manager. He was a stakeholder in the academy, in the club communications strategy etc but his focus should not have been diverted. Ferguson I have no doubt would have gone the same way had he gone on for another decade.

This is now what needs to happen with officiating. Not a "meeting" one morning where they agree to get it right. A proper root & branch review of officiating. 

What is the purpose of the officiating team? Who are the stakeholders in the game and how do they interact with officials? How can technology assist - not take over - but ensure outrageous errors are the exception once a decade, not the rule - 6 confirmed errors in half a season from a full-time professional VAR is unacceptable and he should lose his job.

What are the processes in place? If time is a consideration, then make that known. If the correct decision is the priority, then ignore time pressures. Is the philosophy accurate? 

I can't accept this as human error. Nor as conspiracy for those that way inclined. Nor as incompetence. This weekend was a consequence of arrogance. Of hubris. Of men steeped in a particular footballing culture without the insight and self-reflection to acknowledge that they are as outdated as Richard Keys and Ron Atkinson. They belong to a different era of football, and the only way out is with fresh vision, taking inspiration and best practice from other sports and fields who have managed to innovate effectively.

Otherwise, you can guarantee, I'll be writing yet another piece on VAR before the end of the season.

S12M23: Erry Day/School Day

So, in the research for this piece I've learnt that Sir Mick Jagger & Keith Richards co-wrote Bittersweet Symphony with Richard Ashcroft. This is not relevant to anything else. Well done them though.

Anyway, football's a funny old game as they say. Chelsea showed the findings from Real Madrid and PSG are reproducible - all the money in the world does not guarantee success when spent stupidly. Sample size issues.

All the new manager narrative klaxons then came true as Everton won their first game of the season in classic Dyche ball style. Annoying. Unai Emery remains a total fraud, conceding 4 goals to Leicester. That's FOUR. At home. Madness

At least you can rely on data (Brentford and Brighton) beating.....yachts. I dunno. Southampton and Bournemouth. Does Wessex deanery count as a slam?

Man Utd and Spurs both got good wins - at the cost of key player red cards. Spurs's hoodoo over Man City in particular is outstanding. Football is so weird. Notts Forest beating a rubbish Leeds was the final straw before Jesse got his Marsching orders. Shut up. It was either that or a Ted Lasso joke. Wolves continue their Remontada - thumping a lacklustre Liverpool. I know the words are being said in the right order, but you can't convince me Klopp will be there by the end of next season.

Finally, and out of order, because, well - I forgot - Newcastle have started to drop a few points here and there as expected. Phenomenal season from them and unfortunately, they look to be spending money in a smart way. It's only a matter of time. Moyes has sparked a mini-revival which should keep him safe now until the end of the season.

Let's get statty:

This week, 18 people played
Most popular prediction: Arsenal WIN (18/18)
Most disputed prediction: Notts Forest vs Leeds (8-5-5 split respectively)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (4999/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (598/1)
Average odds: 2351/1

Best predictor: Nick Taylor-Collins (6/10)
Worst predictor: Raffi Kleiman (2/10)
Average score: 4/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd & Brighton WINS (17/18)
Worst predicted result: Everton WIN (0/18)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (>2/3; 15/21) - bad cropping this week

To this week's predos:

Good luck all!

S12M22: Biannual Resolve

 Every. Single. Time.

Every single time. Twice a year, I end up getting sucked in to the swirling, gurgling abyss that is the Transfer Deadline Day.

I absolutely hate it. I tell myself I'm a more cultured breed of fan. I avoid Talksport like the plague. I spend my pocket money on high-end footballing content, and lean into the tactical, psychological and data fields with a degree of snobbery I usually only reserve for coffee.

I liberally use phrases like "squad building", "strategy" and "profile" and sneer at the YouTube generation with their clips and their Football Manager approach to transfer -spending imaginary money with no thought to the second order effects. God, I use phrases like second order effects.

I know the process. I know how deals are done. The complexities, the moving parts and the fact that the chronology publicly, even in this era of integrated, constant news, does not necessarily correlate with the activity behind closed doors. I know how I should react.

And yet, twice a year, I have ALL the tabs open, and constantly refresh Twitter. I know I'm going to get 63 notifications when anything of note happens. I know "linked with" does not progress to a photo of the player, pen in hand in 15 minutes. But try telling that to my hands as I smash the buttons searching for that hit of dopamine - already diluted by the drip-feeding of tidbits building anticipation whilst fatiguing the adrenaline response. 

So you create narratives, multiple narratives to justify and protect. You craft tweets and blogs and edit, delete and eventually, send nonsense just to feel that your energy has some value (5 addenda if anyones asking on one thread I published). That reptilian brain comes out on top - I am as base as anyone else.

But, when all's said and done, what a January - on and off the pitch. Happy as a Theo at the 2006 World Cup.

Let me focus on the "Big 7" - itself a ridiculous concept.

Arsenal can be happy with 2 solid short/medium term signings and a medium/long term signing, whilst maintaining a lead at the top.

Man City did very little business, losing Cancelo out the blue (bah dum tisch) which may be a master stroke in uniting a disharmonious dressing room, or a major error leaving a team weakened behind him

Newcastle quietly continue to work their strategy. Young British intake, streamlining the squad with Chris Wood already upgraded twice within a year. 

Man United are now, officially, post-Woodward. They are competent off the pitch, with the Ronaldo show shifted to Riyadh decisively, and replaced with a low-profile move who fits the Ten Hag system and does not block the incoming major signing in the summer if rumours are to be believed. Eriksen crocked at the end of the window - no sweat, a solid loan signing to cover in Sabitzer. The Banter Era appears over. Devastating.

Spurs, the OGs at Deadline Day nonsense eventually signed Porro after going round in the traditional Levy circle for the entire window. Of course, it has a loan/obligation format, as is trendy to meet FFP needs. Loan management is not for amateurs though. Just ask Matt Doherty. Asset written off due to what can only be described as incompetence.

Liverpool got off to a good start, signing Gakpo for a good price early on. And that was that. No more ins, no real outs and there's a real sense of instability around the back office until the sale/investment saga is concluded.

Chelsea. Where to even start? They honestly break my head. The plan, one assumes, is urgent overhaul. It's unclear why this was needed given Chelsea were hardly awful last season even with the sanctions. If the January signings had been made in the summer, you can sort of understand - forget price tags, we want young talent to come in. But it's in the context of replacing not last season's team, but replacing expensive, experienced summer signings - Sterling, Koulibaly, Aubameyang and so on. There's a lot of gambling - high price tags for limited experience, long term contracts to make FFP compliance easier, providing other incomes are met - like CL money. And of course, the classic Galactico move of Reverse Mulleting (TM) - Party up front, Nothing at the back.  James is the only real rightback and he's injured. No defenisvely oriented midfielders as Kante and Zakaria are injured and Jorginho was sold. Still no central striker option, although I guess this is tactical. 

Could it work? Sure, eventually. See Man Utd above. Throw enough money at a problem and it'll eventually come good. But it's pretty risky from guys without any real grounding in the industry to date. External perspectives can be excellent. But most innovation ends in failure....

Let's get statty:

Last time out, 17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/17)
Most disputed predicted result: Fulham vs Spurs (5-5-7 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (3595/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (2103/1)
Average odds: 2849/1

Best predictor: AFM (6/10
Worst predictors: Aron Kleiman (2/10
Average score: 4.35/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/17)
Worst predicted result: Leicester vs Brighton DRAW (1/17 - well done AFM)

Everyone's results

And the leaderboard (>2/3 weeks, 15/21)

To this week's predos:

Good luck all!