Fair few goals this week, eh? Maybe there's something in this snowy weather...makes them all "fakkin run abaht a bit" (TM Mr H.J. Redknapp Esq) and so there are more open games and more shooting chances? Or maybe the 'keepers are all too cold to react in time? Dunno...don't really care. I like football where there are mental games (except when Arsenal are playing....I miss the days when Pires & Henry would have put us 3-0 up before half-time. Sigh).
Quick focus on Reading....what the shizzle is going on with them? That's 2 weeks running that they've come from behind to win. It's been said fairly often that any club can, on any given day, beat anyone else, but I think we'd forgotten just how true it was in the Premier League of recent times. We've written off the last few years as crazy due to the number of unexpected results, but maybe this is the new status quo? As all clubs reach a similar level of fitness and sports sciencey stuff, then the margins decrease, and it really does become 11 men vs 11 men - anyone of whom can err and change the result from the expected norm. Kinda wish I had a time machine to try this predicting malarkey 10 years ago and see whether there is any statistically significant change.
Anywho, let's get statty:
This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs QPR (7-5-4 split)
Longest odds: Me, 7183/1
Shortest odds: Chernick, 1346/1
Average odds: 2906/1
Best predictor: Whoscored.com (6/10)
Worst predictors: Feneley, Yanik & Tarek (2/10)
Average score: 4/10
Best predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted result: Reading WIN (0/10)
Not even going to bother with villain of the week
Everyone's results:
Note, the new player in burgundy (?), Mr Martin Keown who predicts match results in the Daily Mail. If anyone has any other ex-pros etc who do a weekly prediction, please let me know and I'll incorporate them for the remainder of this season and going forward into next.
To the leaderboard, open to those who have played >2/3 of games, or 16/23.
3 movers this week, WSC retake top-spot, whilst Sam Ruback and Johnny Chernick move up respectively. Josh Gaon benefits from not playing in a week where most slightly reduced their average.
Ok, so to the new FA Cup competition:
Slight alteration to the usual set-up as it's on which team progresses to the next round i.e.Draw is not an outcome as we'll take into account replays, extra-time, penalties, coin tosses etc. As mentioned last week, there will also be a weighting adjusting for the number of games in each round (ie it's harder to score well in earlier rounds, and thus good results there are worth slightly more).
**UPDATE**
If anyone is particularly interested in the mechanics of the weighting, please contact me. For simples, Round 4 is worth 40%, Round 5 worth 32%, Round 6 (Quarter finals) worth 18%, the Semi-Finals worth 7% and the Final worth 3%. This reflects the theoretical status that in the early rounds there are lots of "uncompetitive" ties, the final has a low number (1) of theoretically competitive ties and the rounds in-between are a mixture of both.
Having spoken to a few people and read the comments that some of you left, let's make the entry fee £2. How big the pot gets is entirely down to the number of people who play, but remember, the winner will take 70%, the runner up 20% and third place 10% - this is not a money-making scheme for me (although donations are greatly appreciated ;-) )
I'd ask that you pay your entry fee up front please, as I really don't want to have to chase people, especially if it all goes Pete Tong after this weekend's matches. The best way to do this is via PayPal, so please send your £2 to richard.daniels@kcl.ac.uk using this link
https://www.paypal.com/uk/webapps/mpp/send
If you don't have PayPal, please contact me either in the comments (leave an email if need be), or via phone, Facebook or Twitter. You can use the email address above too if needed.
Remember, the predictions have to be in by kick-off of the first match of the round, which is 19.45 on Friday.
My predictions on who will progress are as follows:
Millwall vs Aston Villa - MILLWALL
Stoke vs Man City - MAN CITY
Bolton vs Everton - EVERTON
Brighton vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Derby vs Blackburn - DERBY
Huddersfield vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Hull vs Barnsley - HULL
Macclesfield vs Wigan - WIGAN
Middlesborough vs Aldershot - MIDDLESBOROUGH
Norwich vs Luton - NORWICH
QPR vs MK Dons - QPR
Reading vs Sheffield Utd - READING
Man Utd vs Fulham - MAN UTD
Brentford vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Leeds vs Tottenham - TOTTENHAM
Oldham vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Good luck guys, remember, the more people that play, the bigger the prize pot, so feel free to send it round the office, to friends & family etc and let's hope that come 11th May, there'll be a few people celebrating a decent win.
To any brand new players, copy and paste the games list into the comments, and change the predictions to what you think will happen. Please put your name (including surname) as well as a twitter handle, or email address so I can remind you for future weeks. I promise that I won't pass your details on to anyone else. Any questions, please get in contact.
Remember, by 19.45 on Friday!
