Matchday 20 & 21:Small Gains

So everyone survived then? Good stuff guys. Shame the tube drivers weren't all taken out. That'd be the best apocalypse ever.

The Christmas football period was a little strange this year I felt. Chelsea handing out a whopping to Villa, and the Man Utd/Newcastle game on Boxing day were the only 2 games that I really enjoyed. I suppose that watching as a "neutral" (which I was from about 2.30pm on the Saturday) isn't the most fun at this time of year, with plenty else to distract the attention.

Anyway, no real controversies either to discuss, though I'm glad van Persie didn't suffer a worse injury at the hands of that violent thug Williams. He could have died, you know. Or not. Deflective arse - Ferguson has a lot of apologising to do in 2013 - starting with Williams and the officials from the Boxing day game over the Evans og. I rarely link to other sites, but as this piece was (co)written by one of our own, I thought I'd include it as it brilliantly explains why the decision was a good 'un. Pinnacle of your career that, Doz....very few get published on these hallowed pages.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 18:
 This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Norwich (8-5-3 split)

Longest odds: Josh Daniels, 34,179/1
Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 702/1
Average odds:6140/1 (1467/1 without the anomalous Josh above)

Best predictors: ECI, Jonathan Chernick, Sam Ruback & Yanik Joshi (7/10)
Worst predictors: Doron Salomon (2/10)
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN (0/16)

Villain of the week: Not applicable

Everyone's results:

Matchday 19:
 This week, 17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (17/17)
Most disputed result: QPR vs WBA (7-5-5 split)

Longest odds: Doron 3185/1
Shortest odds: Feneley (& his mum) 562/1
Average odds: 1743/1

Best predictors: Richard Verber & WhoScored.com (7/9)
Worst predictors: Tarek Najm (2/9)
Average score: 4/9

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (17/17)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN (0/17)

Villain of the week: still not applicable

Everyone's results:

The leaderboard sees a new entrant this week - having now played >2/3 of games (13 of 19). As we're now halfway through the season, it'd unlikely anyone else will join (potentially 2 more, although if they miss a few more weeks, they will be unable to qualify) so this looks like it'll be everyone. What order though?

Drama at the top as 1st & 4th swap places, whilst Yanik and Josh Gaon have poor Christmases, otherwise, fairly unremarkable. New entrant Menachem (from now on, MG) pops into midtable, with a decent cushion from those below.

This week's predictions:

Matchday 20:

Sunderland vs Spurs - DRAW

Aston Villa vs Wigan - ASTON VILLA

Fulham vs Swansea - DRAW

Man Utd vs WBA - MAN UTD

Norwich vs Man City - MAN CITY

Reading vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Stoke vs Southampton - STOKE

Arsenal vs Newcastle - ARSENAL

Everton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

QPR vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Total odds: 1600/1 (Paddypower)

Matchday 21:

I'm going to try the tactic used by some of you and make the second set of predictions separately. If you want to do this, feel free, or copy & paste as usual and do both now. I can't guarantee that I'll chase you for the New Year's fixtures though, so if in doubt, do it now.

WBA vs Fulham - WBA

Man City vs Stoke - MAN CITY

Swansea vs Aston Villa - SWANSEA

Spurs vs Reading - SPURS

West Ham vs Norwich - NORWICH

Wigan vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Southampton vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Chelsea vs QPR - CHELSEA

Liverpool vs Sunderland - LIVERPOOL

Newcastle vs Everton - EVERTON

Total odds: 236/1 with Paddypower

Good luck everyone, have a great new year's eve, and hope all your predictions come true in 2013.

Matchdays 18 & 19: It's the end of the world as we know it

In 2009, I found myself on top of a pyramid in Tikal, Guatemala. The pyramid was built by the Mayans about 1500 years previously, and whilst impressive, it definitely wouldn't pass a health & safety assessment, London style.

Heights ain't exactly my bag at the best of times, but I was just about relaxed enough to listen to our guide talk about how on 21/12/2012, the world was going to end* (according to a people who ironically, weren't around to see it. Like me prophecising the date the Sun's gonna give out...). I'll be honest - I didn't take the threat all that seriously, but now, facing the impending doom that may come in a few short hours, I've realised, this is not how I want to go out.

Rock bloody bottom of the leaderboard.

I'm massively unimpressed - with my odds of ~500/1 last week, and that was hardly anomalous, I expected a nice big score to boost my average, but a combination of Twitchy at QPR, T'witterer at Liverpool & T'walrus at West Ham put paid to that. At least Twalcott (sorry, I'm finished now) managed to put a smile on my face on Monday night.

Basically, the situation needs to change. Either you lot need to do poorly, or I need to improve. Or else, I'm picking up my ball and going home**. I think that everyone should do their bit, and put in silly results, like an Arsenal win, this week, to give me a chance to catch up. Sound fair?

* I'm unsure if this is the 2nd or 3rd "end of the world" in my relatively short time on Earth. It's good to see that it's not just football predictions that are awful.
**not really.

Ah, enough wallowing in pity. If you're still alive, let's get statty:


This week, 17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (17/17)
Most disputed result: QPR vs Fulham (7-4-6 split)

Longest odds: Doron with a rather anomalous 3760/1
Shortest odds: Feneley 200/1
Average odds: 939/1 (469/1 without Doron)

Best Predictors: Josh Daniels & Josh Gaon (7/10)
Worst Predictors: Me, Sam Ruback & Yanik Joshi (4/10)
Average Score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (17/17)
Worst predicted result: Aston Villa WIN (0/17)


Villain of the week: No-one scored highly enough

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, and as always, only for those who have played >2/3 of weeks or 12/17 in this instance. We're a couple of weeks off having another addition to the board, and then, I think that'll be that for this season - all those in play will be on the board.

Lots of little leaps: at the top, my old man has leapfrogged his co-former-moustache-wearer, Josh Gaon's good week combined with Sam's bad week allows them to swap places, and Mr Verber gains a place too. My poor week, Chernick's no show and Feneley's pretty good week, makes for loads of drama at the bottom. Exciting...but I'd far rather be sitting pretty about 8 places higher.

The comeback starts here folks, this week's predictions:

Matchday 18:

Wigan vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Newcastle vs QPR - DRAW

Southampton vs Sunderland - SOUTHAMPTON

Man City vs Reading - MAN CITY

Spurs vs Stoke - SPURS

West Ham vs Everton - DRAW

WBA vs Norwich - NORWICH

Liverpool vs Fulham - LIVERPOOL

Swansea vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Chelsea vs Aston Villa - CHELSEA

Total odds: 1009/1 with Paddypower

Matchday 19 (Boxing Day games):

Sunderland vs Man City - MAN CITY

Reading vs Swansea - SWANSEA

Everton vs Wigan - EVERTON

Fulham vs Southampton - DRAW

QPR vs WBA - QPR

Norwich vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Man Utd vs Newcastle - MAN UTD

Aston Villa vs Spurs - ASTON VILLA

Stoke vs Liverpool - STOKE

Total odds: 951/1 with PaddyPower (only 9 games, thanks Tube Drivers)

I'll be posting the games for next Saturday after Boxing Day, but if anyone is going away for Christmas/New Years and wants to send me their predictions early, then feel free and I'll add them in to the database. I'm contactable by email, text, twitter, facebook, or leave a comment below, making it clear that it's for a different week (and ideally, let me know that you've done so).

Good luck everyone, and may your festive period be as happy on the pitch and at the bookie as around the table.

Until next time

Matchday 17: Late goals ahoy

Well that was fun! Not from a betting perspective, where I was screwed, but there's very little more enjoyable than late drama in a football match. Except being 3-0 rapidly and then cruising the rest of the game, ideally in the Champions' League final. That said, in N5, I'd take the scrappiest of 1-0 wins at the minute.

No Arsenal rants from me though. I'm staying strictly positive. I say my prayers to Dennis every night, and I know that he'll sort it all out.

Let's get statty:

This week, 17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Southampton WIN (16/17)
Most disputed result: West Ham Vs Liverpool (6-7-4 split)

Longest odds: Doron 16,134/1
Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 4609/1
Average odds: 9545/1

Best Predictor: Tarek (8/10)
Worst Predictor: Ryan Wain (2/10)
Average Score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Southampton WIN (16/17)
Worst predicted result: Norwich WIN (0/17)

Villain of the week: Remember, this section only gets filled when someone scores 8 or more, and it's used to identify a 'villain' who potentially stopped them getting the full accumulator right. This week, Tarek got the Norwich & Everton wins wrong - but I'm struggling to think of a poor decision that cost him. I guess, SPURS get the award for throwing away the result with 1 minute to play.

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (still taking offers...), for those who have played >2/3 of available weeks (11/16):

To quote Sir Stephen of Fry "Oh me, oh my". Tarek's scarcely-believable 8 marches him up the table, and new arrival Richard Verber parachutes comfortably into midtable. My father also has regained the place he lost to WhoScored.Com last week, as has Nick Collins, continuing his steady ascent. Nick ran out of time last season when trying to haul in Joe (who has yet to appear this season)...will it be second time lucky for him?

To this week's predictions:

Only the 9 matches this week as Chelsea are busy gorging themselves on sushi.

Newcastle vs Man City - MAN CITY

Liverpool vs Aston Villa - LIVERPOOL

Man Utd vs Sunderland - MAN UTD

Norwich vs Wigan - NORWICH

QPR vs Fulham - FULHAM

Stoke vs Everton - EVERTON

Spurs vs Swansea - DRAW

WBA vs West Ham - WBA

Reading vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Total odds: 505/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys

Matchday 16: You can't win if you're chasing the wrong problem

An appropriate quotation with which to start off this week's post, I feel. We are ~40% of the way through the season, and I think it's fair to say that very few clubs feel satisfied. WBA, Everton & Swansea are probably content with league position and are hoping to maintain form into 2013.West Ham too, at a push. But I'd argue that's it.

Fans of Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool appear to be in perpetual turmoil (some to greater degrees than others) - either because they feel they should be doing better because of the state of their rivals, or because of issues with the players, managers, boards and anyone else who can be scapegoated. Stoke and Fulham are probably par for the course and everyone else is either underperforming relative to expectations, or is in the worrisome position they expected to be in.

All of that leads to a feeling of dissatisfaction with Premier League football at the minute - last season was a classic, with some amazing matches, fantastic sub plots and drama until (literally) the last kick. Maybe it's just me, but it all seems a bit flat so far - we're still waiting for that spark to ignite.

I read something this week (context being has Wenger lost his powers) and I think it's relevant to the whole league. The last 15 years have seen sports science and the development of the professional game take a hold, to the extent that there really are 'no easy games' anymore. Teams are much fitter, and much more disciplined. This has probably raised the average quality of the league, but makes for a less thrilling spectacle, as contests now become a lot more tactical, or decided by individual errors - part and parcel of the game, but less visceral. In due course, sporting evolution will occur - it always does - and whoever makes that first leap will have a competitive advantage, but I just wonder if for now, all the team are too close in ability to generate sustained excitement.

Irrelevant really - come 3pm on Saturday, any philosophising will be over as the nerves and the emotion take over. For that's what it's all about, those 90 minutes, and the rest of all this is just finding a way to bide the time.

*UPDATE* Just seen the UEFA announcement re EURO2020 being held across Europe. That's just bloody stupid. Logistical nightmare for the fans, and how are they going to a) create a sense of occasion and b) decide who gets the important games? As I asked on twitter, is a lobotomy a prerequisite to work for UEFA?

Metaphorical slap across the jowls, let's get statty.

This week, 17 people played.

Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (17/17)

Most disputed result: QPR vs Aston Villa (5-8-4 split)

Longest odds: Josh Daniels 5794/1

Shortest odds: Me 937/1

Average odds: 2893/1

Best predictor: Yanik Joshi (7/10)

Worst predictor: Jonathan Chernick (2/10)

Average score: 4/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (16/17)

Worst predicted results:  West Ham & Swansea WINS (0/16)

Villain of the week: No scores high enough to count unfortunately. Ideas on how to change criterion gratefully accepted.

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (which I have yet to receive any offers of sponsorship for...great opportunities for businesses, birthday presents etc...). The >2/3 of games rule means to qualify, you have to have played 11/15 weeks.

Statman's fall from grace continues as 2 of the 3 "professional" models now make up the top of the table. Yanik & I the big winners, with 3 strata beginning to form. Still plenty of weeks to change that, although I feel it unlikely that I'll finish above Lawro this season. A chilling thought.

My predictions for this week as as follows:

Arsenal vs WBA - ARSENAL

Aston Villa vs Stoke - ASTON VILLA

Southampton vs Reading - SOUTHAMPTON

Sunderland vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Swansea vs Norwich - SWANSEA

Wigan vs QPR - QPR

Man City vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Everton vs Spurs - DRAW

West Ham vs Liverpool - DRAW

Fulham vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Total odds: 8901/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys, see you next week with some results