Let's start with an apology. We've had loads of new players this season and I was quite lazy with the first blog and it was remiss of me to not explain the rules, so I thought I'd direct you to the sub-pages above that explain the game.
Impossibilitee started out as an accumulator-accumulator - a few people did 10-match accumulators and always lost, so it was a way to see who was the least worst. It's evolved since, and has used various statistical prediction models (EuroClubIndex, Who Scored.com) and Ex-Pro (Lawro) as comparators. We've also utilised previously Stan Collymore who has been dropped because 1) he's flakey and 2) he's a complete *$£*!&%* of a human being who tried a pile-on on me so he's barred, and the FinkTank, now sadly departed. If you know of any other models to include, please let me know.
The accumulator odds bit then stems from this - if you do a 10 match accumulator, stick in the odds (to /1, don't gimme a complex ting) for comparison and to go into my big database which one day I'll sell to someone for #mining and make billions.
How this works, as you may have worked out, is that you choose a result for each game. You get a point if you get it right. That gives you a weekly score which is averaged out over the course of the season and put onto a leaderboard (if you play >2/3 of available weeks so you cant bang out a 9/10n on week 1 and then never play again). Every week, I publish a blog with the following structure:
- I bang on about some nonsense. Sometimes I'm proud of what I write. Other times I phone it in. Watcha gonna do. I've just decided I'll take guest blogs here for this season - pitch me if you want in
- Very brief superficial recap of the football as it's nearly a week later and everyone knows what happened
- Bit of basic stats & results outcome
- Leaderboard (from Matchday 4 blog)
- New predictions
Hopefully that clears up some of the confusion regarding everything before - my apologies for not doing it properly the first time....
So, the new season starts and immediately, we turn from yearning for the football to return to complaining about the obvious that was always going to occur - the implementation of VAR.
I've held forth here before about my stance on VAR, but my blog, my rules and if you don't like it....scroll down. I'm pro-VAR in concept. Yes, sport is entertainment and should be fun. However, the game that the inital laws were laid down for and what it is today are markedly different. The improvements in sports science, materials technology, even groundsmanning along with the high financial stakes for failure mean that the old adage of "evening itself out" should be consigned to the scrapheap. It's not reasonable to expect humans not to make error and so systems need to reflect and support this (oh hello there day job...).
Football is late to the VAR party - look at how many other sports have incorporated technology to improve accuracy. There's nothing magical about football which means the same benefits wouldn't apply - it's just all in the execution.
It's not right yet. 2 things really have come up from this matchday - both entirely predictable, and indeed, previously discussed by those far more familiar with the VAR world than I. These issue are:
- Offside
- In-stadium experience
It's worth pointing out that, like Brexit, the lines are already pretty entrenched between those who are pro & against, and no amount of evidence to the contrary will change these views. The justifications just keep shifting. My feelings are that we should be looking to improve the game, and technology is a part of that, and so to throw the concept out because it's not perfect is ridiculous. We need to improve how the in-stadium communication occurs - ie mandatory screens, miking up refs and listening in to the VAR conversation, and crucially, why has the decision been upheld/changed. With regard to offside, all it's done is highlight how flawed the rule in in current context. Like the taxcode, the devil lies in the complexity. If this is the nidus for reviewing and rewording the law, then I'm all for that. The principle was to avoid goalhanging, not to deal in micrometres. Until such time as wearable tech/ball chipping allows for the level of accuracy required to look at decisions in that detail, I'd relax the rules down to "visible daylight" and give the attacking team the benefit of the doubt. In this context, where the technology remains subjective, we're looking for clear and obvious error, rather than perfection.
Anyway, to briefly recap on the football, Liverpool and Man City started the season off by humbling the peasants sent to them as fodder on the opening weekends. Surprise result was probably at Vicarage Road where Brighton's bright young thing, Graham Potter went home with a great 3-0 away win in the bag. Spurs rallied late after it looked like a brave point was there for newly promoted Villa, whilst fellow newcomers Sheffield Utd looked good in their return against now-established Bournemouth. Burnley started well against a Southampton side who have unimpressed for a few years under various managers - more of the same on the South Coast this year? Palace, Everton, Leicester & Wolves all failed to trouble each other in the race for 7-10th ('arf 'arf) whilst a delightful Aubameyang goal was enough to get Arsenal all 3 points in their relatively drab opener against a Newcastle side who seem to be fitting into the Southampton bracket now. Finally, in the battle of the young club icons, Solksjaer took bragging rights after the youngest side in the history of humanity, without a midfield, took apart a Chelsea side heavy on potential, but light on experience. 4-0 may be harsh, but it's done the #narrative no harm.
Finally, finally for this week - let's get statty:
This week, 32 people played! A new Impossibilitee PB!
Most popular predictions: Liverpool & Spurs WINS (32/32)
Most disputed prediction: Man Utd vs Chelsea (13-11-8 split respectively)
Highest odds: Andrew Feneley (252,851/1)
Lowest odds: Will Castle (608/1) - curated.
Average odds: 32,431/1 (7940/1 without outliers)
Best predictors: Loads of you (7/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of us (4/10)
Average score: 5.40/10
Best predicted results: Liverpool & Spurs WINS (32/32)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (0/32)
Everyone's scores - hopefully you can work out who you are. Your tag will stay with you forever now:
To this week's predos:
Good luck guys! And remember, the more the merrier - please share with anyone you think might be interested.
