S5M7: You wouldn't like me when I'm angry

Let's get to it. I've tried to keep this blog relatively neutral over the years, albeit with the occasional slip up, like a certain Captain, Leader, Legend, best-mates-wife-..... yeah, in Moscow...

However, this is my party and I'll rant if I want you, so...if you'll indulge me (otherwise, skip to the stats bit).

Diego Costa is a bit of a bottom. I've toned that down since Saturday lunchtime. Time's a wodnerful healer. How someone gets through 81 minutes without being called for a foul with his style of play is beyond me? Actually, it's not, but I'll come to that later.

How he doesn't get carded for any of the following offences, I don't know:

• 3rd minute - trips himself up, blames Coquelin, asks the ref for a yellow card. Unsporting conduct right there  - yellow. In fairness, I hate the faux-moralising over this, I find it not different to appealing for a throw/corner that you know isn't yours....but thems the rules.
• 41st minute - 2 hands clawing at Koscielny's face over right shoulder - yellow. Followed up with an intentional swing of his left arm over his left shoulder, connecting with Koscielny's face  - straight red -violent conduct. Followed up by a chest-bump/shove to Koscielny knocking him to the ground. Certainly a yellow, arguably a red too. All of which was unprovoked and amazingly unnoticed.
• 41st minute - Some afters with Gabriel who's come back to stick up for his mate. A load of handbags frankly. The worst bit I saw was Zouma (I think) grabbing Gabriel around the neck, but this seemed to be trying to pull him away, so benefit of the doubt. Punished with a booking for both Gabriel and Costa in the classic ref move of "I haven't actually got a clue what happened here, but stop it". Good from Gabriel in my opinion to come back and get involved. Team spirit etc
• 41st minute - Gabriel and Costa jabbering at each other on the way back to the halfway line. Your mum's a......, no your mum's a..... kind of stuff. Gabriel then flicks a leg in between Costa's legs but does not make contact (thanks ESPN Brazil). I thought on first viewing he'd also poked Costa in the eye, but I was clearly wrong. Costa then turns angel and asks for retribution - arguably unsporting conduct again. 
• 2nd half - stopped making notes on minutes - dive for penalty (yellow) and then a kick out off the ball at Oxlade-Chamberlain - well that's a straight red surely....Mike Dean's already made that clear in this game.

So by my maths - Costa should have had 3 yellows, 2 straight reds and an "Orange" for the chest bump thing. The only thing he was booked for was frankly nonsense. Should Gabriel have been sent off? Sure - he was booked and did something stupid - although they seem to have previous from Spain when Costa elbowed him 2 years ago. The problem comes from terrible refereeing.

Cards on the table. I'm no fan of Mike Dean. As a general rule, I hate refs who flamboyantly brandish cards, and do the whole "come here,...no, come HERE" thing. The one's who love the limelight. There's a blog going round about Mike Dean's record in Arsenal games over the last 5 years too - I'm not sure he's biased per se, however the statistics are interesting in how Arsenal statistically underperform/received fewer penalties and more red cards than the average with other refs, or his average. However, on the grounds of last week, you have to call into question his competency, and that of his team. He fundamentally lost control of the game, and how the officials missed so many offences I don't know. A stronger ref would have separated Costa and Gabriel - their teammates should have too, but Dean is equally culpable. He told Monreal to go away, who was there to translate as Gabriel speaks about 11 words of English. He's overly officious, had a shocker and singlehandedly changed the game. That's not his job, and how he has got away without punishment I don't know.

The subsequent reversal of the bans is of bugger all satisfaction. As Wenger said, it meant playing 10 vs 11 rather than 11 vs 10 for over half a match. I thought we weren't too bad before the red card - not saying we were going to win, but looked pretty comfortable. Against 10, we'd have had a real chance to push on second half. That was taken away. It also pushes the narrative again - Wenger can't beat Mourinho etc. It's frankly nonsense - in the Community Shield, Chelsea went out to win and were outplayed, and didn't look threatening at all before Gabriel's red card. I'd argue that the most recent evidence is that Arsene has worked out (finally) how to play against Mourinho.

The final point is about technology. I can't stand the luddite mentality of those in control of the game. Cricket, rugby, tennis have all embraced technology without it harming there sports, as have the NFL. No one is asking for robot referees, but it's insane that we are so unwilling to try and assist games that have so much riding on them. For example, the excuse that you would have to stop the game is often used - well the game was stopped for 4 minutes on Saturday. More than enough time for a video review of the whole event. When a goal is scored, the game is stopped. It's either a goal, or not, in which case the buzzer watch doesn't go off it it doesn't cross the line. If it does, and it's a tight offside, why not review the video? I'd also give retrospective bans for diving - increasing for each offence and starting with 5 games. So dive, win a penalty, then miss a month of football. Next time you dive, miss 6 games, and so on. Then let's see how easily players fall over. Technology doesn't have to take over the game, but it can help in so many ways. It's also such a different sport at the elite level to Sunday league that that's a nonsense excuse too. Ever seen a player's dad reffing at the top level...

Right, rant over. YOU CAN ALL COME BACK NOW!!!

In other PL news, West Ham should just play all their home games away. Sunderland are dreadful, Watford have now won 2 on the bounce and Leicester should stop giving away 2 goal leads before playing football. I reckon Rodgers will be gone in the next 2 weeks at Liverpool, and Man Utd seem to be starting to rumble again, although by some accounts, Southampton deserved a point.

Let's get statty:

This week, 

31 people played (season high)

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (29/31

Most disputed result: Stoke vs Leicester (11-7-12 split)

Highest odds: Me 18872/1 (not entirely sure how)

Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman 4943/1

Average odds: 9625/1

Best predictor: Dinkin 5/10

Worst predictors: Tarek & Will O'D 1/10

Average score: 2.90/10

Best Predicted result: Bournemouth WIN (21/31)

Worst predicted result: Liverpool vs Norwich DRAW & West Ham WIN (0/31)

Swing: Russell Martin's equaliser  - fooled 28 of us

Everybody's results:

HZ's results deserve a star next to them as he only submitted the last 4 matches.

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks (5/6)

And finally, to this week's predictions:

Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY

Leicester vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Liverpool vs Aston Villa - LIVERPOOL

Man Utd vs Sunderland - MAN UTD

Southampton vs Swansea - SOUTHAMPTON

Stoke vs Bournemouth - STOKE

West Ham vs Norwich - NORWICH

Newcastle vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Watford vs Crystal Palace - WATFORD

WBA vs Everton - DRAW

Total odds: 1475/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys, and thanks for staying with me through my rage

S5M6: Stronger down the Left

So, last week's early kick off saw a late signing for the Labour party come (nominatively deterministically) from Left field. Although talk about a transfer saga - de Gea ain't got nothing on Jez.

Suffice it to say, Premier League footballers are quite rich. Most of them aren't hugely bright. I wonder if Sky News had been on in the Chelsea dressing room before the game, distracting the multi-millionaires to the extent that Naismith was able to score the perfect hat-trick. Maybe they watched the post-announcement press conference instead of their technologically-thwarted tactical meeting.

Anywho, for all of us non-Chelsea fans, that was a thoroughly enjoyable start to the weekend. However, the Corbynmania had died down by the 3pm kickoffs, with Arsenal thrashing Stoke 2-0, City proving that the massive investment in their academy pays off once a season and Watford upsetting a Swansea start who had got off to a great start. In the battle of the new boys, Norwich comfortably saw off Bournemouth who are struggling to adjust to the Premier League.

I read something (dunno where) last year which talked about the physical differences between the PL and the Championship. Players actually cover more ground in the lower division, but the interviewee was talking about when and where the movement occurs as being the difference. In the Championship, it's end-to-end like a Basketball game. High energy, high turnover. In the PL, it's generally more sedate in the middle third, but teams up the pace of passing and show explosive movement in the attacking zones, and that's the bit that "lesser" clubs tend to struggle with - keeping focus and discipline for 90 minutes in and around the box. If I can find the article, I'll update the blog with a link.

I'll skip WBA vs Southampton, and let's talk about the Fallen Giant Derby. Man Utd deserved a win with a great second half, with a great goal off the training ground to open the scoring. New boy Martial sealed the game late on with a goal which will do nothing to ease the 'New Henry' comparisons being fired around (If anyone hasn't already heard about this, here's the breakdown of the add-ons - by my reckoning, Man Utd will end up paying 70m Euros by the end of the season if he makes it into the France squad for Euro 2016!)

However, Benteke gets the plaudits for me. Frankly a ridiculous goal. Up there with the best overhead kicks I've ever seen and not something I thought he had in his locker. Just woof.

On Sunday, Spurs bored us all to death to beat an already-relegated (yeah, I'm paying out) Sunderland and then Timmy gave us all a chuckle by ballsing up a 2-0 lead with 15 minutes to go. No gilet throwing this time. West Ham continued their cracking start to the season with a 2-0 win over a Newcastle side who are a little baffling - they certainly look better than last year, but 1) can't score and 2) can't defend. Bizarre.

'Nuff chat. Let's get statty:

This week, 29 people played
Most predicted result: Arsenal WIN (28/29)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Southampton (5-14-10 split)

Highest odds: My mother debuting at (30,552/1) - AFM has got competition
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (2272/1)
Average odds: 4815/1 ignoring the ridiculous outlier

Best predictor: Doron Salomon (8/10)
Worst predictors: Ryan Wain & Eli Daniels (3/10)
Average score: 5.67/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal WIN (28/29)
Worst predicted result: Everton WIN (0/29)

Swing: Naismith's 2nd goal - the eventual winner - left 13 people shaking their fists & screaming with joy simultaneously.

Everyone's results:

And the leaderboard for those who've played >2/3 available games (4/5)

So, to this week's predictions:

Chelsea vs Arsenal - DRAW
Aston Villa vs WBA - VILLA
Bournemouth vs Sunderland - BOURNEMOUTH
Newcastle vs Watford - NEWCASTLE
Stoke vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Swansea vs Everton - DRAW
Man City vs West Ham - MAN CITY
Spurs vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Liverpool vs Norwich - NORWICH (Rodgers to go after 1 more defeat)
Southampton vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Total odds: 18,872/1 (PaddyPower) - if there's one week I wouldn't mind winning my acca....

Good luck guys!

S5M5: Wazted

As I may have mentioned once or twice before, international breaks are not helpful when it comes to writing something here. What's already old news when I usually come to reviewing the previous matchday is practically prehistoric when we've have an extended break to beat a motley collection of bakers, farmers and perfectly-manicured financial workers. All the headlines this week have been about Wayne Rooney and his becoming England's all-time leading goalscorer.

Well, I'd hate to be accused of being churlish - so, Wazza, if you're reading (I know you can't play Impossibilitee...no hard feelings) - Congratulations. You can only beat the record that someone else set, and clearly no-one else has been able to do so in nearly half a century.

Of course, a lot of the discourse has been the old staple "it was better in my day" when comparing the previous record holder, and former-Impossibilitee player, Sir Bobby Charlton - yes folks, for those of you who've come in recent times, Sir Bobby once trod these here hallowed blog pages. Once. Did quite well though.

To that end, I thought I'd add a couple of thoughts to the discussion:

The first regards this little infographic I stole from someone on twitter (sorry no attribution as I forgot to note it down)

So, I don't pretend to be an expert on 1960s football, and have no idea as to how good some of these teams were. If you took a yoof of today transitioning from being a Belieber into a football fan, and told them that Hungary used to rule the roost in Europe, they'd probably look at you with the same disbelief as the rest of us have when we first heard the term Belieber. So whilst I know that the USSR and Portugal were alright, and maybe Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, I've got really no idea how good or bad Spain or Sweden were in that time. There are also a lot of games against the home nations, who seemed to be abysmal even then and 5 goals against Luzembourg and 4 against the USA who looked pretty shonky. I think we also run the risk of falling into the Youtube trap of seeing just Bobby C's highlights - the blasters from distance and the driving runs, and a Wazza highlight tape could be just as impressive over the last 12 years. I'm sure some of our more seasoned players may have watched more of Charlton than I have, but everyone has seen more of Wayne Rooney as there's more football on TV - every single touch of his has been televised and scrutinised in a (social) media frenzy that didn't exist in the same way 50 years ago.

The stats column on the right, whilst showing an Impossibilitee level of basicness certainly doesn't show any real difference. It's probably also fair to suggest that the level of football globally has risen with the globalisation of tactics (see Inverting the Pyramid by Jonathan Wilson) and the revolution in fitness.  Therefore it's unlikely that Rooney will have a) been a surprise and b) had the space to operate in that Sir Bobby may have enjoyed.

Finally, winning your countries only World Cup, on home turf with a fairytale story (admittedly not his hat-trick) bestows a certain glow upon your career that persistent quarter-final exits can't quite match.

Plus Sir Bobby is a gent, and Wayne is a rotund fornicator of ladies enjoying their golden years - ya feel me?

The second point I wanted to make occurred to me when I was watching England play San Marino.
I wondered whether I could get a game so looked at the stats:

According to the CIA World Facts database, the male population of San Marino aged 15 - 64 was 8992 at last count. I'll round that to 9000.

Looking at the birth rate, it's been relatively stable (if anything a slight dip), so looking at the 15 - 40 category to account for those realistically available for selection, I'll divide the selection in half - 4500.

Assuming, therefore that 1) Every male between 15 - 40 is able bodied and 2) has any interest in playing football for their country, and ignoring actual talent or physical fitness, I reckon that to play for the national team, you have a 1:180 chance (squad of 25).

That's not too bad - but I reckon I'd still only be the sub keeper, as that's probably less popular.

Critiques: 1) haven't taken into account the Sammarinese diaspora - who knows how many are eligible worldwide and 2) This is clearly nonsense.

For comparison, England 1: 638,846 and Gibraltar 1: 189 (same methodology)

Right enough of that, there was PL football 2 weeks ago and stuff happened. Let's get statty:

In Matchday 4:
28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: Bournemouth vs Leicester (8-10-10 split)

Highest odds: Ryan Wain (7680/1)
Lowest odds: Yo Abbott (757/1)
Average odds: 2787/1

Best predictor: Nick Jones (6/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com (1/10)
Average score: 3.68/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28) - dur. Death, taxes and Man City Home wins folks.
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace & WBA WINS (0/28). Special mention to Andrew Feneley's mum for being the only one to correctly predict West Ham winning at Liverpool for the first time under Queen Elizabeth or something

Swing: Jermain Lens equaliser for Sunderland - 20 people left beating the ground

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks - (3/4 to date)

Proper made up (is that the right Scouse?) for Ryan who storms off the foot of the table. Also worthy of comment is the clustering of employees of the same company around the top of the table. They shall remain unidentified, however, I may have to go full Ruxin on this if this continues.

(FYI - if you've not seen The League, I've just made your day. Puerile, infantile and damned funny)

Right, to this week's predictions:

Everton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Arsenal vs Stoke - ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Man City - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Bournemouth - DRAW
Watford vs Swansea - SWANSEA
WBA vs Southampton - WBA
Man Utd vs Liverpool - MAN UTD
Sunderland vs Spurs - DRAW
Leicester vs Aston Villa - LEICESTER
West Ham vs Newcastle - WEST HAM

Total odds: 3066/1 (Paddypower) - the home wins are coming...I can feel it in my bones...

Good luck guys, and if you haven't yet done the questionnaire on what the best method of delivering the blog to you - look at the tab "Reminders" in the top right corner.

Until next week...