S5M11: Quarter Marked

Gary Neville was a breath of fresh air when he started his punditry career on Sky, and the "Gareh" & "Jaaaayyymeeee" double act is certainly a good watch. But Red Nev's taking a bit of a kicking this week, after his comments that the 1st half in the Manchester Derby was as good as anything he'd seen this season (as well as his inability to be objective as an FA coach over England captain Wazza, but that's another story). James Richardson explained this on the Football Weekly podcast with a quotation from an Italian (shocker) coach, who felt that 0-0 was the perfect score, as no team had made any errors.

Whilst there are such things as brilliant 0-0 draws - think Rome 1997, or, from my personal experience, the home tie against Real Madrid in the 2006 Champions League, it's a mistake to claim that all 0-0 draws are a result of immaculate play - a footballing stalemate. You can have error strewn 0-0 draws, where attacking incompetence "cancels out" defensive ineptitude. You can also have 0-0 draws, where both sides seem to settle for a safety-first attitude even before the game has kicked off - and it is in this category that I'd argue the game at Old Trafford fell. It was a game low on attacking endeavour, in part due to injury, and in part due to poor form. Martial seemed to be the only player willing to force the game in the first half, and I think the first shot on target came in the last 10 minutes. To me, that's hardly perfect football.

Elsewhere, Timmy's gone, which was hardly a shock. He's just not very good. No offence yeah, mate. The Ayew brothers scored in the same game for the second time in a calendar year - I have no way of knowing how common that is, but I'd wager, not very - at least at the top level. Jamie Vardy scored a goal after a Messi-esque dink overt the 'keeper to keep alive his remarkable scoring run, whilst Watford captain Deeney finally got his first Premier League goal in a great away win at Stoke. Arsenal held on a little to beat Everton in a game they should have won more comfortably, whilst the HarryKane has "returned" with a hat trick against a Bournemouth team looking a little shell shocked at the pace of the top flight. Let's see if this is the start of a streak. Sunderland beat Newcastle in a "jammy" 3-0 win to continue this ridiculous thing about new managers, 2nd games etc. Liverpool, Klopp, something etc. I'm boycotting that until the love dies down.

Something else happened....WBA....no, not  quite...

Delicious. West Ham haven't done too badly either.

Let's get statty:

This week, 27 people played

Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (26/27)

Most disputed result: Norwich vs WBA (8-11-8 split...unusual)

Highest odds: RDM 89020/1 - I despair

Lowest odds: Me, 3063/1

Average odds: 25,406/1

Best predictors: Zoë Daniels, Tarek Najm, Sam Ruback 6/10

Lowest predictor: Hesham Zakai 2/10

Average score: 4.15

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (26/27)

Worst predicted result: Watford WIN (2/27)

Swing: Sadio Mane's equaliser - 16 disappointed

Everyone's results:

Yep - highest & lowest odds score the same...

For the leaderboard (>2/3 - 7/10)

In other news, here's the proof that the trophy actually exists, and now resides with someone who has earned it...

Congratulations Josh Gaon - although looking at the standings so far, it's as insipid a defence as say....Chelsea?

To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs Liverpool - DRAW

Crystal Palace vs Man Utd - DRAW

Man City vs Norwich - MAN CITY

Newcastle vs Stoke - NEWCASTLE

Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Watford vs West Ham -WEST HAM

WBA vs Leicester - LEICESTER

Everton vs Sunderland - EVERTON

Southampton vs Bournemouth - SOUTHAMPTON

Spurs vs Aston Villa - SPURS

Total odds:  1561/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys

S5M10: For the First Time in Forever

Isn't the game easier to predict when teams that you'd expect to win win? For the first time since March, Manchesters United & City, Chelsea and Arsenal  all won, and that's given a bump to the average scores!

Kloppmania reached it's zenith this weekend, with an apparently love-in on BT Sport - I didn't watch it myself, but thought "this is absolutely insane" when watching MOTD and you saw the press photographers kneeling multiple layers deep in front of the dugout as he took in White Hart Lane. Seriously guys - let's dial down the adulation just a tad. Fortunately, the game took some of the enthusiasm away - it's gonna be a learning curve.

Chelsea managed to avoid their season getting worse, although I'm not sure a home win against a terrible Aston Villa can be anything other than a banana skin dodged. West Ham continue their astonishing away record, with 2 late goals to take maximum points from Palace, whilst Man Utd won at Goodison - something which is apparently rare in the last few years! Comeback kings Leicester did it again, and Sunderland lost again, Sam Allardyce unable to provide the new manager bump they'd have hoped for. Newcastle finally came good with a swashbuckling display against a naive Norwich side, and Swansea really have fallen off the wagon with defeat at home to Stoke.

Away from the football, I thought I'd see if there's any appetite for an Impossibili-5-a-side game/tournament (depending on numbers) some point before the new year (H/T Tarek for the idea) - a get together to see who's predicting skills are better than their actual footballing skills? If you're interested, let me know with your prediction and we'll try and sort something out.

Right, let's get statty:

This week, 30 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (30/30)
Most disputed result: Everton vs Man Utd (11-11-8 split)

Highest odds: AFM (back in the game) 52,442/1
Highest-odds-not-from-the-mother-of-a-participant-who-doesn't-really-know-anything-about-football-and-just-picks-names-like-I-pick-horses-at-the-Grand-National-(the mother, not the participant): Josh Daniels 6798/1
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon 2062/1

Highest scores: Steven Daniels & Eli Daniels (7/10)
Lowest scores: David Silverman & Andrew Feneley (3/10)
Average score: 5.00/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (30/30)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (4/30)
Swing: Vardy's equaliser (22 disappointed)

Everyone's results:

The leaderboard (>2/3; 7/9):

To this week's predos:

Aston Villa vs Swansea - DRAW

Leicester vs Crystal Palace - LEICESTER

Norwich vs WBA - NORWICH

Stoke vs Watford - STOKE

West Ham vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Arsenal vs Everton - ARSENAL

Sunderland vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Bournemouth vs Spurs - SPURS

Man Utd vs Man City - MAN CITY

Liverpool vs Southampton - LIVERPOOL (updated 24/10/15 1034)

Total odds: 3063/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys!

S5M9: Pesky things

What a difference 2 weeks makes. I don't want to cover old ground regarding how disruptive International breaks are to this blog, but the last 2 weeks really take the biscuit. I would have loved to talk about my misery when Aguero banged in goal after goal, less than 24 hours after I stripped him of my Fantasy Football captaincy. I could have gone into great detail about my feelings regarding the continued unravelling of the Hypocritical One at Stamford Bridge by Sadio Mane. Don't even get me started on the elation of the first 20 minutes at the Emirates. That was a turnback-time moment.

Update: I'd completely forgotten about B-Rodge. That amazing Henry moment. Klopp etc. Oopsie.

Internationally, England did a good one, but obviously that's not good enough for Fleet Street. Won't stop them proclaiming that we're gonna win every game in France 4-0, and then hounding Hodgson when that won't happen. Congrats to Wales on their first tournament appearance, I believe I'm right in saying, in the lifetime of anyone ever to have played Impossibilitee (I'm discounting Lawro 'cos he doesn't know this exists). As for the Netherlands - gutted for them as a nation but that van Persie own goal was quite special.

Away from the football, the world seems to be going mad with my social media full of Hunts, both domestic and international. I've also taken the exam I was "revising" for, so have lost my reasons for avoiding work, and now have to....ya know...er, work. Devastating. I was getting used to this lifestyle (FYI - nowhere near as glamorous/lucrative as the media would have you believe).

Basically - a lot's happened since we last met.

Let's get statty:

26 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (24/26)
Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Stoke & Bournemouth vs Watford (7-10-9 & 9-10-7 respectively)

Highest odds: Seriously guys - I'll give you a top 5:

1. My mother 62,141/1
2. My sister 38,669/1
3. Doron (welcome back, thought you'd gone serious for a while) 21,670/1
4. Andrew Feneley's Mum 17,045/1. Just reflect on that for a second. She's only the 4th highest odds
5. Aron Kleiman 14,768/1

Draw your own conclusions.

Lowest odds: Josh Daniels 3668/1

Average odds: 18,201/1 (as if there are even outliers anymore)

Best predictor: Dagmar 7/10

Worst predictors: Aron Kleiman & Hesham Zakai (2/10

Average score: 4.38/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (24/26)

Worst predicted result: Sunderland vs West Ham DRAW (2/26)

Swing: Arnautovic's winner for Stoke left 10 disappointed.

Everyone's results:

To the leaderbard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks (6/8)

To this week's predictions:

Spurs vs Liverpool - DRAW

Chelsea vs Aston Villa -CHELSEA

Crystal Palace vs West Ham - CRYSTAL PALACE

Everton vs Man Utd - EVERTON

Man City vs Bournemouth - MAN CITY

Southampton vs Leicester - SOUTHAMPTON

WBA vs Sunderland - SUNDERLAND

Watford vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Newcastle vs Norwich - NEWCASTLE

Swansea vs Stoke - SWANSEA

Total odds: 2287/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys

S5M8: Near-Normal Service Resumed

Well well well.

Man City at the lane. Easy banker there. Even Dzeko used to fill his boots. Oh.

That said, following from last week's rant about poor refereeing - let's turn our gaze this week to the chap(pette)s with the flags. I personally don't understand how they ever get any other than the most blatant offsides rights. To be able to spot a knee or toe an inch or 2 beyond the last man at 30m (vision), travelling at 15-20miles/hr, whilst focussing on the exact moment the ball is played forward (audial) with a cacophony of background noise would be quite tricky if it was an isolated task from a stationary position - a sort of hazard perception thing from the driving test here. To do with whilst you're running yourself, so with a kind of twisted side on view, and maybe a long pass to quickly switch the play, under floodlights on a rainy evening...well, I take my hat off to them for even volunteering for the job. This doesn't mean I have the same level of compassion when they've just flagged Walcott off again for the 8th time and we're 1-0 down and my view was the perfect one to comment on offside (behind the goal).

I'm not saying that offside calls are always impossible, but generally they do pretty well. And then you get Saturday. This Luddite mentally infuriates me. Sport is, as per the wishes of Baron de Coubertin, becoming faster, stronger and er, higher. My background allows me to comment with some certainty that the advances in muscle mass, growth and power, combined with the technological advances in kit/ball/boot/pitch manufacture are all much faster than the continuing evolution of the human eye & brain. That's before you throw the cheaty professional aspect in where people can 1) train all day and 2) do whatever they can to gain an advantage.

Officials are on a hiding to nothing and need help. Maybe that's an American football system of having 1 official per square metre of pitch. Maybe that's a review system for goals as per Rugby Union with tries (Is there any reason why....)? It's not going to ever catch everything, but with the amount of money involved at the elite level, we have to try and become as close to perfect as possible. From a disciplinary side, I'd like to see 2 things brought in - 1) TV monitors on the touchline for the 4th official (or create a 5th official in the stands away from the dugouts) in real time and 2) a citation committee as per rugby to award punishment within a range based on the offence itself and the previous history of the offender. It's ridiculous that this only happens with racist abuse, or if you bite someone. It's ridiculous that a leg breaker of a challenge is given the same punishment as a slap to the face that a 4 year old girl would be embarrassed at handing out, and especially if you've got form.

I get that the FA are a fusty old organisation tethered to change. I get that FIFA are actual the natural heirs to SPECTRE (excited to see that). But there's no reason why clubs couldn't experiment in their preseason tournaments, or at youth level, and the stuff that works....bring it up a tier.

Anyway, back to football. Alexis Sanchez is back and is just amazeballs. Daniel Sturridge is also back and my word, have Liverpool missed him. He seems to have the same muscular robustness as another previous pacey Liverpool striker from Cheshire. Just hope he'll be a better commentator in years to come. Man Utd go top for the first time post-Fergie with a resounding win over Ryman League Sunderland. Just give it up now lads. Swansea really have fallen away early this year, but a big win for the Saints who've also floundered so far,  a sentiment I could extend to Stoke. West Ham's late equaliser annoyed me, as I quite liked their invincible-away, village-at-home approach.

Jose's Geordie blues continue although I guess he'll be happy enough with a point given where the game was with 10 to play. Ramires. Woof. Watford decided to put on a full-size reconstruction of their Playoff defeat to Palace, which was a nice bit of culture for their fans, before Everton came from 2-0 down to win away at WBA. Finally, no more invincibles for another season. #isyouronegold

Let's get statty:

This week, 28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (27/28)
Most disputed result: Watford vs Crystal Palace (14-5-9 split)

Highest odds: AFM  18,788/1
Highest non-AFM odds: Doron Salomon 7326/1
Lowest odds: Joe Abbott 948/1
Average odds:  4834/1 (3432/1 without AFM)

Best predictors: Lawro & Ryan Wain (7/10). A boost for the city of Liverpool
Worst predictor: AFM 1/10. Even she couldn't not predict Man Utd beating Sunderland at home
Average score: 4.64/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (27/28)
Worst predicted result: Spurs WIN (1/28 - well done Hesham Zakai)

Swing: Tricky one, but van Dijk's near post header gave Southampton a lead they never relinquished, so I'm going with that. 16 had the draw.

Everyone's scores:

 

Leaderboard for those who've played >2/3 available games (5/7)

Major movement in the "champions league" spots, whilst at the bottom, Ryan Wain achieves his alltime highest position of not-bottom. Some clear daylight now, and he'll be looking to attack serial-trophy winner Josh Gaon who's having a bit of a transitional season.

To this week's predictions:

Crystal Palace vs WBA - CRYSTAL PALACE

Aston Villa vs Stoke - DRAW

Bournemouth vs Watford - WATFORD

Man City vs Newcastle - MAN CITY

Norwich vs Leicester - LEICESTER

Sunderland vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Chelsea vs Southampton - CHELSEA

Everton vs Liverpool - EVERTON

Arsenal vs Man Utd - ARSENAL

Swansea vs Spurs - SPURS

Total odds: 4607/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys.