Thursday 23 May 2013

Season 2 draws to a close: The tension of the final leaderboard & FA Cup game victors

I don't know how you guys feel, but for me, this season, nay, the last 12 months have absolutely flown by. 12 months ago, I wrote this end of season blog worn out from the emotions of the final round of Premier League matches. The Olympics loomed large and a massive year for me (in a personal capacity; I do have a life away from the blog) seemed to be approaching rapidly.

And yet here I am again, with all that lay ahead now resolutely in the past. I feel a detachment from this football season that I haven't felt since 2006/2007, when I last spent a significant chunk of the season away from the UK. Maybe that's why I don't feel this was a classic - a solid, functional Man Utd team set a pace that the brittle contenders could not follow. That's a reference, primarily, I feel to psychological brittleness. It says so much about the professionalism and character of Man Utd (and let's face it, when I say that, I mean their former manager) that they just kept grinding out results even when it became clear that the league title would be theirs and no-one else's. I assume that last season's pain provided sufficient motivation.

Arsenal came out with the North London bragging rights (again), and will be looking to spend their new commercial jackpot to exploit the managerial uncertainty at those above them. For Spurs, this summer's most crucial task will be to keep a hold of their no.11, and only genuine match-winner.

Mid-table has those who had a good half-a-season then coasted a little, and those who it's become rather par for. The incredible bunching, as seen by Norwich's 5 place jump with a final day win shows that none of these teams can afford to stand still less they be dragged down into the relegation mire. I'd argue that was the true drama of this season - a month before the end of the season 7 or 8 teams were theoretically still in danger. Amongst them were the godawful QPR replete with 'Arry's excuses and a Reading team who were entertaining, and if in truth, a team I'm sorry to see go. Wigan's bittersweet conclusion was, I think, the right type of bittersweet.

As for us - well this season saw plenty of new faces, and some excellent performances. I'm planning to write a blog at some point about the year-on-year changes, but as this is long enough, it'll have to wait. The excitement, however, over who has added their name to the cherished Impossibilitee trophy is nearly over.
As a reminder of where we stand, Lawro leads the table by 0.01 from Nick, who is in turn 0.01 ahead of WhoScored.com - it's all very much up for grabs.

For the final time this season, let's get statty:

This week, 20 people played
The most popular predicted results were: Chelsea & Liverpool WINS (20/20)
The most disputed result was: Wigan vs Aston Villa (8-6-6 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 12,724/1
Lowest odds: Me & my copycat father (making a family treble) 240/1
Average odds: 2,373/1

Best predictor: Lawro (7/10)
Worst predictor: Josh Daniels (further proof that the bookies are mainly right) 3/10
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (20/20)
Worst predicted results: Norwich & Fulham WINS & WBA vs Man Utd DRAW (0/20)

Everyone's results


As mentioned above, Lawro went into this weekend with a slender lead, and like the champion that he is (bleurgh, threw up in my mouth), top-scored to consolidate his position. Rivals Whoscored.com and Nick Collins just couldn't perform at the end when the pressure was on, and will have all summer to reflect on a great opportunity missed. Nick, and my dad deserve special mention though for being the only ones to beat/come close to the professional models. Sam Ruback also gets the Clubman award for being ever-present. A true professional amateur. Will O'Doherty makes his leaderboard debut for the season at the death with a respectable mid-table score though there is plenty of flak on the Impossibilitee fan blogs and forums for his half-hearted commitment this season. Must try harder in future. Down at the bottom, Josh Daniels and Doron Salomon show why it's not the best idea to consistently have odds over 10,000/1, although that only makes it worse for Tarek Najm & Jonny Chernick who'll have the close-season cancelled and extra practice scheduled to avoid a repeat of this embarassment next year. All 4 of those players scored below last season's worst score - a new PB (or PW?) for the game.



As before (last season), I've also done a best of the rest table for all those who didn't participate enough to qualify for the main leaderboard.


Danny Hakimian can be proud of a spectacular score, though the challenge of course, is to sustain that form over the course of a season. David Dinkin joined us for the run in and did pretty well - he's an early tip for next season's title. Eli Daniels was the most frequent player of the rest with a very respectable 4.93, and I'd like to highlight Ryan Wain (who seems to have folded under the pressure) who has managed to do worse than last season, although, in fairness, over very few games.

So, the congratulations go to Mark Lawrenson, who also drew much praise this week in an article which was deeply flawed in terms of it's scientific methodology. Nevertheless, he's done better than all of us, and as he gets much abuse for it, credit where credit is due. It does mean that both champions work for the BBC, which is an interesting quirk. Let's see whether it's something they put in the water next year...

To the FA Cup game now,

For the final round, only 12 people played. Boooo
The predictions were split 6-6 for Man City and Wigan

The 6 who got it right: Gaj, Feneley, Tarek, Josh Gaon, Josh Daniels and Nick

Here's a graph showing that:


So to the overall leaderboard - Gaj's success combined with mine and Charlie's failings have given him some extra cash, with Charlie finishing 3rd and me empty handed. Double boo.


If Josh, Gaj and Charlie contact me (ccdaniels65@gmail.com), I'll arrange for their winnings to be transferred to them. Congrats all round

All that remains is for me to thank everyone who took part in the second season of the Premier league game, and in the inaugural FA Cup game. Next season, I hope you all return, bring friends with and be a part of the planned expansion!

Check back next week to see year-on-year reports, and congratulations once again to Manchester United, Wigan Athletic, Swansea City, Mark Lawrenson and Josh Gaon. Have a great summer.

*Fade out to stirring montage with emotion-pulling soundtrack*

Thursday 16 May 2013

Matchday 38: Finals all round

...and now, the end is near (again).

Can't believe that the season is done and dusted (assuming there won't be a 3rd place play-off, which there just won't).

We now are left with just those CL places to play for after Wigan had the ultimate roller-coaster week. Have to say, were I a Wigan fan, that's how I'd have taken it. The memory of the FA Cup triumph beats the sadness of relegation, something they could bounce back from in reasonable time if they don't have too large a fire-sale.

This means that 2 clubs from the North-East with nothing to play for could determine the fates of 2 clubs from North London. You'd have to think that players are professional enough to want to win every game, or failing that, greedy enough to want every win bonus. However, it's difficult to to motivate yourself for that 50/50, or track back when tired when you know there's nothing riding on it. No-one want's to go on holiday with a plaster-cast, ain't nobody got time for tan-lines.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (20/21 - Chernick, you grinchy bugger. Couldn't let SAF have his last moment in the sun...)
Most disputed result: Norwich vs WBA & Sunderland vs Southampton (both 6-9-6 splits)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels with a ridiculous 63,188/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (got your mention....happy?) 661/1
Average odds: 12,029/1 (1,797/1 without the ridiculous odds above)

Best predictors: Steven Daniels & Richard Verber (9/10)
Worst predictor: Josh Daniels & Tarek Najm. Stan Collymore too, though he didn't predict the last 2 games. (4/10)
Average score: 7/10 (6.67). Second highest score of all time

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (20/21)
Worst predicted result: Norwich WIN (6/21)

Villain of the week: Verber was the closer to getting the full 10, so I'm gonna look for a villain in the Sunderland/Southampton game. It's kinda difficult....maybe Jos Hooiveld for the deflection on the Sunderland goal? He's scored enough own goals this season, so I don't feel that bad...

Everyone's results:


Now to the leaderboard, and yet another change at the top.


It's so tight between the top 3, and mathematically speaking, Statman and the ECI could sneak it too if results go in their favour. A couple of mid-table shifts add some more colour this week, but the other major story is Jonathan Chernick sneaking up on Tarek, who'll now be very concerned about taking that dreaded wooden spoon. The previous incumbent of that position, Ryan Wain, hasn't shown his face in public since last season due to the shame (if you don't include a documentary about him on Channel 4 last week)

To this week's predictions:

Chelsea vs Everton - CHELSEA
Liverpool vs QPR - LIVERPOOL
Man City vs Norwich - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Southampton vs Stoke - DRAW
Swansea vs Fulham - SWANSEA
Spurs vs Sunderland - SPURS
WBA vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
West Ham vs Reading - WEST HAM
Wigan vs Aston Villa - WIGAN

Total odds: 240/1 (PaddyPower). This will be the week I get 10 right, and get bugger all money for doing it. Wait and see

I'm currently mid-medical finals, so whilst I have done the FA Cup stats, I'm going to plead off doing the blog about them until the weekend. Apologies to keep the suspense going until then.

Good luck guys, see you back next week for the end-of-season party.



Thursday 9 May 2013

Matchday 37 & FA Cup Final: CL places, relegation, shiny things and dosh

Let's start with Fergie. Congrats on a fantastic career. Undoubtably earned your place in the footballing pantheon. I'm not going to wax lyrical because others have done that, and I don't want to and it's my blog. He wasn't my manager; in fact, I've spent much of my life expressing reasons why I don't like him and that won't change because he's now retired. Respect, certainly. Like, certainly not. I am, however, rather excited for next season already...

Partly, that's because there is so little to play for - Chelsea's point last night makes them strong favourites for 3rd, so it's a straight shoot out for 4th between Arsenal & Spurs. If Arsenal make it, chances are that they will do so sending Wigan down, thus answering the final question of who will be the last team to miss out on the new TV deal lose their Premier League status.

It's the FA Cup final too this weekend, where the simpering City take on the welegation-distwacted Wigan (what?).

Meh, didn't get much sleep last night. Rooney, Luiz, Moyes - gone, did nothing wrong, not as terrible as everyone seems to be saying. That's your lot.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
The most popular predicted result was an Arsenal WIN (21/21)
The most disputed result was Norwich vs Aston Villa (8-10-3 split)

Interestingly, there was a lot of concordance this week...which may explain the rest

Highest odds: Who do you think? 6976/1
Lowest odds: Will O'Doherty 1381/1
Average odds: 3358/1

Best predictors: Jonathan Chernick & Martin Keown (5/10)
Worst predictors: Feneley & Eli Daniels (1/10)
Average score: A woeful 3 (season low of 3.09 in fact). Ride together, die together etc

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea & Reading WINS (0/21 - seriously, no-one had Chelsea to win!)

Everyone's results:



The leaderboard now, and the drama contineus:


Nick retakes top spot by the slimmest of margins, whilst there's a slight adjustment to the mid-table. Will O'Doherty will join the table if he plays in both remaining weeks, so there's the additional suspense of where he'll slip in. Will he blindside everyone at the top? Give Chernick some relief at the bottom? Let's see...

Now to look at the FA Cup Semis stats:

As per, 15 people played
The most popular results was Man City WIN (12/15)
The most disputed result was Wigan WIN (11/15) - err...yeah...only 2 matches.

The best predictors were Doron, Yanik, Tarek, Josh Gaon, Josh Daniels, Sam Ruback, Charlie Rawson, Nick Collins and Hesham Zakai (2/2)
The worst predictor was Ryan Wain (0/2)

The best predicted result was Man City WIN (12/15)
The worst predicted result was Wigan WIN (11/15)

Everyone's scores:


To the leaderboard now:


Josh Gaon looks to have guaranteed himself top prize, but it's all to play for between Charlie, Gaj & myself. Haven't done the maths, but I think Nick is too far out to catch up. 

Predictions for this week:

Matchday 37:

Aston Villa vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Stoke vs Spurs - SPURS
Everton vs West Ham - EVERTON
Fulham vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Norwich vs WBA - DRAW
QPR vs Newcastle - DRAW
Sunderland vs Southampton - DRAW
Man Utd vs Swansea - MAN UTD
Arsenal vs Wigan - ARSENAL
Reading vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 989/1 (PaddyPower)

FA Cup Final (for those in the FA Cup Game)

Man City vs Wigan - MAN CITY

Good luck guys, see you back next week for the final round of the season.




Thursday 2 May 2013

Matchday 35 Results & Matchday 36 Predictions: Back at May already?

Einstein, widely regarded as one of the smartest blokes ever, missed a trick you know. Obviously, his below-average-weight brain had a neurone or two firing to come up with the theory of relativity, but I feel he went wrong with his explanation bit. Formulae and maths turn people off, and that train analogy is a tad twee for me. What he should have done, is utilise the popularity of the beautiful game and prove relativity by how fast time moves at differing stages of the season. Grossly speaking, August to May goes by faster than injury time spent in the backseat of a Spurs-supporting friend's car (and his Spurs-supporting dad) listening to BBC Radio 5 deciding to personally make the next few minutes of your life excruciating. The tension when Giggs broke in the closing moments was utterly exhausting, but taught me more about physics than Mr Lovemore Chiremba (didn't he play Right Back for Wigan?) ever could.

I digress (plus ca change...). In other football news, Reading & QPR confirm the inevitable, the captain of the GB Simian Soccer team wins some banana trophy or 3 and somewhere in Barcelona, Alex Song is sobbing softly to himself as he wears out el Sky+ remote watching the famous victory that he could have been a part of in the second leg of the Last 16 round. ITV made yet another booboo by cutting away from Jose just he was about to read a love sonnet to Roman, although in fairness, at least they didn't just press the "go to ads" button so prominent in their control booth.

That's the round-up of the football news, let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played.
The most popular predicted result was: Man City & Everton WINS (20/21)
The most disputed result was: Aston Villa vs Sunderland (6-9-6 split)

The highest odds were: Doron 17,662/1
The lowest odds were: Josh Daniels 1022/1
The average odds were: 5249/1

Best predictor: David Dinkin (8/10)
Worst predictors: Yanik Joshi & Doron (2/10)
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Man City & Everton WINS (20/21)
Worst predicted result: WBA WIN (0/21)

Everyone's results:


To the leaderboard now,


Loads of little battles throughout the table mean that everyone has something to play for (except maybe Jonny Chernick, who would have to be the recipient of the miracle of all miracles to get off the bottom). Someone has to overtake Lawro - can we live with the disgrace of all being worse than him at predictions?

To this week's matches:

Fulham vs Reading - FULHAM
Norwich vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA
Swansea vs Man City - MAN CITY
Spurs vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Wigan - DRAW
West Ham vs Newcastle - WEST HAM
QPR vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Liverpool vs Everton - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Chelsea - MAN UTD
Sunderland vs Stoke - DRAW

Total odds: 6063/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys