S12M18 & 19: 2023 Beckons

It has become tradition that my season opening blog uses soaring imagery to conjure nostalgic dopamine releases in your brains. Harnessing the summer footballl experience to twang the psychological addiction strings starting to jones for that first whistle...my adrenaline is going just thinking about writing it. If only someone had done some research into this sort of this.

That's basically where I've been for the last few weeks. The WC was a nice little Twitter doomscroll but NOW, now the football is back and my word do I feel it. 

Brentford vs Spurs was wonderful. Would have been more wonderfuller if Spurs hadn't done their usual party trick of being rubbish but still coming from behind to get something. Once the canapes had been devoured, we sat down to the main meal. Palace decided 11 players was 2 too many, and to be honest, probably regret it. Lopetegui got off to a winning start at Everton with a 95th minute winner to make Frankie L do Frank things. Delicious. Like a roasted brussel sprout. Leicester really are dog doo doo and Newcastle wrapped up 3 points inside 8 minutes. They must be so broke if they can't afford to sack off Rodgers. Brighton scored 3 off 0.3 xG or something. I have a very vested interest in this equalling itself out in the near future.
Then came the big boyz.

Liverpool. Bosh. Win.
Arsenal. Bosh. Win.
Chelsea. Bosh. Win
Man Utd. Bosh. Win
Man City. Bosh. Win

The Barclays is Back. 

Let's get statty:

This week, 18 people played. I've found a new model too - from Opta - who'll be included from here on.
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (17/18)
Most disputed predictions: Everton vs Wolves, Leicester vs Newcastle & Southampton vs Brighton (11-4-3 & 3-4-11x2 respectively)

Highest/Lowest/Average odds: 701/1 (Steven Daniels)

Best predictor: Silverman (8/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com (4/10)
Average score: 6.22/10 (Season high)

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (17/18)
Worst predicted result: Fulham WIN (2/18)

Everyone's scores:


Leaderboard (>2/3; 12;17)

To this week's predos:



Good luck all & Happy New Year!

S12M17: Resumption

NGL, forgot the Carabao cup was the true domestic restart. so very nice for Thailand's number 3 energy drink. 

We're back now. Proper. Players with their fresh tans, Haaland aside - he's spent the last month plugged into his docking station having a firmware upgrade and a battery service.

World Cup was fun eh? On the pitch, some decent stuff. Great final. Lovely narrative. 

However, the real moral of the story is that public opinion has finally turned against one of the great villains of our generation. His stupid fashion choices, his general charlatan nature and his lamentable approach to publicity have come full circle and bitten him right in the backside. I of course refer to Gianni Infantino/Salt Bae (delete as appropriate). 

What a colossal donut. Today, I feel......vindicated.

To the predos:

M17 (Boxing Day+ Predos)



Good luck all & enjoy whatever the next week brings.

S12M16: Results

For those looking for a little Impossibilifix 

Matchday 16:
16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Liverpool WINS (16/16)

Most disputed predictions: Bournemouth vs Everton & Fulham vs Man Utd (7-5-4 & 7-4-5 splits respectively)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (1573/1)

Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1525/1)

Average odds: 1549/1

Best predictor: Me (7/10)
Worst predictor: David Graniewitz (3/10)
Average score: 4.94/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (16/16)
Worst predicted result: Brentford WIN (0/16)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 12/16)

See y'all in 3 weeks

S12M16: The dark side of the Moon

Well it's here. The last football before the blackhole that is the World Cup 2022.

All the dismay. All the Special Reports, investigative journalism, criminal charges, Human Rights reporting and so on, and we are on the brink.

At the risk of repeating myself, I'm absolutely raging. I have very clear memories of World Cup 94. Obviously not watching games - I was too little to be 1) watching football properly 2) USA timezones and 3) England weren't in it because Graham Taylor was a root vegetable.

I had a Gary Lineker Soccer School wall chart however, and I remember filling it in each morning. It's my first active footballing memory, and was followed up a few months later by my first football shirt (August birthday) and my first game (I remember Nigel Spink. I do not remember Andy Townsend being sent off).

So I'm really quite bitter about not being able to engage with this World Cup as my similarly-aged son starts to get into football himself. He's the only reason I'm not engaging in a total boycott of all things World Cup, but I'm pretty torn as to how much to engage.

Are we doing the Panini album? Presumably there's no royalties to FIFA - they've just been paid a lump sum by Panini. That said, the guts of a grand to complete....

Are we doing a wall chart? Probably. Begrudgingly. 

Will we be watching any games together? He told me on the way to school today that he "hopes England win" - this is the problem with this generation.....no appreciation of the Irony of "Football's Coming Home" after the Lioness success this summer. So...does watching constitute supporting? Can you compartmentalise this? Is it all lip service.....there are no shades of grey and you either World Cup or you don't?

So yeah. **** FIFA, **** Blatter, **** the 19 ExCo members - Warner, Blazer, Beckenbauer, Platini etc who did this. 

For the game, my peachy buttocks.

Anyway, we've previously done a thing for World Cups here, but we will not be this year. Check back in 2026. 

Let's get statty

This week, 18 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (18/18)
Most disputed prediction: Chelsea vs Arsenal (5-5-8 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (5722/1)

Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (5041/1)

Average odds: 5382/1

Best predictor: Raffi Kleiman & Steven Daniels (7/10)

Worst predictors: David Brickman, Natan Kleiman & Nick Taylor-Collins (3/10)

Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (18/18)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN (2/18)

Everyone's results:

The leaderboard (>2/3; >10/14)

To this week's predos:

Good luck, results post next week, then radio silence until mid-December

S12M15: Last Push

 Well what do I know? I'm near the bottom of the leaderboard - don't listen to my predictions.

Look. I still think Marsch is not long for the league, but objectively, that was a great win. Liverpool look broken and the question is whether there is enough psychological reserve in this group to stem the bleeding and rebuild, or whether it's time for a clear out. It's stark how the whispers have started around FSG not feeling it now, rather than the 'Mentality Monster' stuff that prevailed. It's easy to run with the lazy lines when things are going well, but those who argued that this team needed to be evolved over the last 2 years, and that the Covid impact on transfers had hit Liverpool's model seem to have been right.

What else? City are the true Mentality Monsters and have been for years. Leicester will feel disappointed at taking nothing from that game. Similarly, Bournemouth will be fuming at letting a 2-0 lead at home get away - 3 Spurs late winners in a row this week (admittedly, the first was disallowed but still)

Brighton absolutely spanked the b'jaysus out of Chelsea on the return of Potter. They are a very impressively run club who seem to be raising their glass ceiling month on month.

Newcastle and Arsenal got convincing wins, Crystal Palace & Man Utd did not and Diego Costa diegocosta'd his way to an early bath. Muito bom.

Let's get statty:
This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Arsenal WINS (15/15)
Most disputed prediction: Fulham vs Everton (10-3-2 split)

No odds from anyone

Best predictors: Aron & Natan Kleiman, Chris Sutton (7/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (3/10)
Average score: 5.67/10

Best predicted results: Man City & Arsenal WINS (15/15)
Worst predicted results: Brighton & Leeds WINS (1/15 - Raffi & Natan Kleiman)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 9/13)

This week's predos:



Good luck all!

S12M14: Marsching on Together

I'm making a prediction. Sacking number 5 is imminent. Jesse Marsch is going after a defeat at Anfield, giving Leeds a chance to bring in a replacement who'll then have the World Cup break/Jan Transfer Window to work with the squad. They are basically in free fall and with Villa making a change and getting a result, Leicester and Southampton picking up points and Forest getting an unexpected win against Liverpool, boosting their morale, I predict Marsch will be out after a 5th consecutive loss, taking 1 point from 21. They don't want to be 5 points adrift after a quarter of the season already.

The low hanging fruit for managerial change has sort of been picked now. Rodgers aside, which is rumoured to be a financial thing, you can see Cooper, Lampard and Hassenhuttl all holding on for a few months now. Ten Hag clearly is being backed (see Ronaldo saga) and the only other change I see happening in the next few months is possibly Conte at Spurs....not that I think he'll get sacked, but he is a very combustible guy who has a history of getting into a spiral at clubs. Some way off that yet however. The longer odds would be Klopp for me - again, not getting sacked, but the energy fizzling out. One to watch if the season continues to drift for them - has he got the energy to rebuild this team in a major way?

Let's get statty:
This week, 19 people played

Most popular prediction: Man City & Arsenal WINS (19/19)
Most disputed prediction: Wolves vs Leicester (6-7-6 split)

Highest/Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (1117/1)

Best predictors: Eli, Nick & Me (5/10)

Worst predictors: Feneley, Aron Kleiman & Steven Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 3.58/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/19)

Worst predicted results: Notts Forest WIN & Southampton vs Arsenal DRAW (0/19)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (>2/3; 9/12)

This week's predos:

Good luck all!

 

S12M13: Gareth Southgate for PM

 Double matchday week, and yet all the headlines are about minor things like the collapse of the UK into some sort of discordant dark age. I've long thought that the only way out of this mess is to install me as a dictator, line up my enemies, engage the firing squad and dunno, haven't really gone much further than that. Still, stronger policy platform that Lizzy T eh? #politics

M11 marked a nice early Invincibles Day which was greatly enjoyed. Excellent goal from Salah, previously excellent save from Ederson, dodgy VAR call again. Deja Vu. 
Brighton are playing some lovely attacking football since de Zerbi came in, but they're also doing the traditional Brighton thing of refusing to score. Deja Vu. Wolves have shown more under an absence of a manager than Bruno Lage, who my Wolves supporting mate thought should have been sacked after week 1. Still though, lasted longer than Lizzy T. #politics.

Arsenal won at Leeds under challenging circumstances which is nice for them, but also means that they are the first club to have a 100% record throughout the entire tenure of a Prime Minister in the history of the UK. Amazing scenes. #Politics

Obviously M12 was played under a different chancellor, and a different Prime Minister in part. 

Somethings didn't change though. Brighton did not score. Liverpool won with the Scouse VAR missing Allison off his line for the penalty save. Newcastle are looking solid, Man Utd spanked Spurs up and down Sir Matt Busby way, and Ronnie had enough and decided to beat the traffic home down the A56. Awful roadworks outside Altrincham fire station. Fellow resident Ten Hag did not appreciate this and booted Ronnie out. You know who else is from Altrincham and put someone out of a job this week. Sir Graham Brady MP, chair of the 1922 Committee and revolver wielder to Lizzy T #Politics.

Ok, will stop now.

Let's get statty:

M11

18 people played

Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (18/18)

Most disputed result: Man Utd vs Newcastle (8-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (7152/1)

Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (2282/1)

Average odds: 4718/1

Best predictor: ECI (7/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of us (4/10)
Average score: 5.33/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (18/18)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool WIN (1/18) - Well done ECI

M12 - 9 games, pro-rated

16 people played

Most popular predicted result: Brighton WIN (16/16)

Most disputed result: Leicester vs Leeds (6-4-6 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (9558/1)

Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (671/1)

Average odds: 5115/1

Best predictor: Massey Ratings & Nick Taylor-Collins(6.67/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (2.22/10)
Average score: 4.86/10

Best predicted results: Newcastle & Liverpool WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted result: Brighton vs Notts Forest DRAW (0/16)

Everyone's scores:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 8/11)

This week's predos:

Good luck all

S12M11 & M12: In Ter Section

Life is tough enough. All this bad stuff and whatnot. So you need to take the little joys that bejewel the world as a powerup to get through to the next crisis.

Saturday provided just one of those joys. The winning team in each game's score created a lovely sequence. 1-2-3-4-5. Nearly as enjoyable as looking at a clock at 12:34. Wonderful stuff.

Of course, it wasn't in perfect order. So, chronologically it was 2-3-4-5-1. But we're all used to Spurs ruining things. 

Let's start at the top. 

Leicester are in deep doodoo. Rodgers is gonna sleep with the fishes in the *checks Wikipedia* River Soar. Bournemouth on the other hand are making Scott Parker look silly and have the Vegas billions on the horizon. Then you had comfortable home wins for Chelsea, Man City & Newcastle. Finally, Spurs beat a spirited Brighton side who have taken to life after Potter pretty well so far.

Then came Sunday. MORE SEQUENCES. Cumulative goals went 3-4-5-oh

Man Utd just couldn't do it properly. Sure they beat Everton, but that's not the point. Good wins for Palace and West Ham too. Then finally, the headline game of the weekend. A pulsating game between a creaking giant and the Best Team in The World. Anyway, I think we can all agree that the forces of Good triumphed over the forces of Evil.

Then something happened in the Midlands. Draw. Heard someone talking this week about how the East Midlands aren't even a place....like some places think of themselves as 'The North' and others think of themselves as, I dunno, not The North. Flyover country if I ever heard of it

Let's get statty:
This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
Most disputed predicted result: Arsenal vs Liverpool (10-4-5 respectively)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (3996/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (840/1)
Average odds: 2297/1

Best predictor: WhoScored.com (8/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of you (5/10)
Average score: 6.11/10

Best predicted result: Man City & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth WIN (3/19)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 6/9)

To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S12M10: It's all Wright now

Howdy all.

Lovely day. Lovely week. Lovely lovely jubbly. Amazing how external factors can impact a mood. All those Eastern Philosophies about Zen and internal focus and whatnot don't hold a candle to a nice Derby win. Highly recommended. Unless your Spurs. In which case, you probably wouldn't like it.

It's also lovely to play early and win and tee up the rest of the weekend. Loads to enjoy after that. I mean not the Bournemouth/Brentford draw. Not the ridiculous decision not to send off Tiago Silva for DOGSO allowing Chelsea to get back into the game and score a (lovely) late winner. Fair props to MoTD for digging out an old clip of Ian Wright scoring against Palace for a bit of a ribbing.

I haven't watched a full episode of MoTD in years. Enjoyable one to start. The Liverpool/Brighton game was mad. Brighton could have been 4-0 up, and found themselves 3-2 down, before Trossard completed his hat-trick to get a draw. Only the 3rd away hat-trick at Anfield in the PL...anyone name the other 2 (without looking it up)?

Everton do Everton things in false dawning all over the place but the big 😮 moment was seeing Diego Costa in a Wolves shirt. He looks like he's about 100 years old. Great chance to score though.

Then to Sunday. Schadenfreude Sunday. The contractual Weekly Mention of Haaland Being Ridiculous needs to occur, but there really is nothing like embarrassing your Derby rivals. The footage of the United fans streaming out after 35 minutes was perfect. 2 late whocares goals will not reflect the gamestate in history, but this was as paddling a paddling as I've ever seen.

Leicester also somehow won a game. #Scenes

Let's get statty:

This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Liverpool WINS (18/19)
Most disputed result: Southampton vs Everton (6-7-6 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (13956/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (3475/1)
Average odds: 7809/1

Best predictor: David Graniewitz (9/10) - Trossard ruined the perfect card, 7 mins from time,
Worst predictors: Me & David Brickman (3/10)
Average score: 5.11/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (18/19)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool vs Brighton DRAW (1/19 - well done Zoe)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (>2/3; 6/8)

This week's predos:

Good luck all!

S12M9: New Plan

 Regular readers may know that I've been referred to as a 'firebrand politico' in my time. Doesn't matter who by. None of your business.

Anyway, away from my day job of chivvying my awful MP to get off his backside and do some work supporting his constituents, I've spent the bulk of the last 20 years developing my own political philosophy. I've always wanted an eponysm. Admittedly, I've not really got the last name for it, and much of the policy framework is somewhat incoherent, but I think I've coalesced around a core belief. 

Anti-Nationalism.

Not the Soviet sort where they hate countries unless they don't.

Not the weirdo, every man is an island sort

A very simple, contagious philosophy, that Nationalism is bad. Having nations means having states, which means having heads of them. They die, no football, then reduced football. This plays havoc with my spreadsheets.

Having nations means national teams. Team who then spend ages playing each other for a tin of beans to be able to what....wear a flag or something. Nonsense. I'm very pro-Corinthian sporting ideals, but not at the expense of my spreadsheet and my routine.

Basically, utterly pointless. And it's not even like the World Cup are the World Champions. It's marginally better than the best MLB team winning the "World Series" but only just. To suggest that one nation is better than another at football when they've retained the benefit of a century of political and economic benefit over another is hardly a level playing field. 

You, Gianni Infantino, have soiled the famous white shirt and as punishment, I suggest that all National Team Captains who will be partaking in the next World Cup should be summarily executed. Ciao Harry & Sonny.

Vengeful Capital Punishment. The second tenet of Danielsism. 

Let's get statty:

M8 (7 matches played, scores pro-rated)
This week, 16 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)

Most disputed prediction: Everton vs West Ham (4-6-6 split)

Highest/Lowest/Only odds: Aron Kleiman (72/1)

Best scorer: Steven Daniels (8.57/10)

Worst scorers: Loads of us (4.29/10)

Average score: 5.80/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)

Worst predicted result: Newcastle vs Bournemouth DRAW (2/16)

Everyone's scores: 

Leaderboard: (>2/3; 5/7)

To this week's predos:


Good luck all!

S12M8

 What to say?

Press "Publish" and the PL/FA cancel everything. I do not agree with this for many reasons and especially when cricket, rugby, racing etc do not follow suit.

It's then bizarrely inconsistent - so this week, European football was permitted on Wednesday in London but not on Thursday. Domestic football in permissible in London on Sunday but not Saturday in Wolverhampton. I understand a bit about how the policing and security frameworks operate for football, and (after attending a wedding this summer where I spoke to a police officer from Birmingham about the arrangement for the Commonwealth Games) understand how personnel are transferred from around the country to assist with major events, I do understand how non-London events will be impacted by a London-based parade....but even so....

For me, it all comes down to Communication. Transparency and Clarity. It'd improve VAR no end, and would have helped relieve some of the frustrations felt this week. As well as that other footballing truism, put your foot on the ball and get your head up - there was no real need to jump the gun (sporting metaphor mix klaxon) last week.

So, last week has been voided and will be repeated at some point.

In other news, last night saw another, possible Peak Haaland example. The man is a machine. 13 goals for City already in all comps and it's mid-September.

To M8 predos:



Good luck everyone

S12M7: Smorgasbord

Not short of talking points this week then....
Where to start? VAR controversy AGAIN? Tommy T facing a winter of unemployment? Graham Potter chasing the moolah? Or the overshadowing news from today.

I think the thing I'd like to start with is the Haaland. There are certain movements or skills that get associated with players. The Cruyff turn. The Ronaldinho Elastico. Or the Vieira insouciant cross-field switch with the outside of the boot. Snappy name. Well I'm calling the Haaland nice and early. The Haaland is a back-post kung fu style volley, launching his go-go-gadget 10 foot leg from somewhere near the penalty spot to convert a deep cross from a yard out into an open net. He's done it at Dortmund and is doing it at City. TM. Copyright. You read it here.

Erling Haaland GIFfrom Erling GIFs

See, I'm getting good at predictions. Last week I wrote, 

"I do reckon Tommy T is starting to go a little, so sneaky feeling he's not lasting the season"

Now admittedly, I didn't think he'd not last the week. But when it's not right, it's not right. Tuchel has a habit of falling out with people so it wasn't the biggest stretch, but also Todd Boehly really is putting himself front & centre. A long may the Chelsea Soccerball Experience continue.

Ah, bugger, they've hired a good coach. Really annoying when that happens. 

What else? VAR controversy is boring, but I think I need to make special mention of the farce that disallowed the Brighton goal. The most nothing of nothings that took over 4 minutes of checks (so I'd argue by definition not a clear & obvious error) to rule out one of the best strikes you'll ever see. Buzz (Kevin MacAllister's brother, geddit) will be fuming that history will lose that goal forever, especially given that it's have been up there with the best hat tricks of all time.

I'm not anti VAR conceptually as I've stated many times before, but it's quite impressive how the implementation can be screwed up in so many ways.

Let's get statty:

This week, 18 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (17/18)
Most disputed predictions: Brentford vs Leeds & Man City vs Arsenal (8-8-2 & 4-4-10 splits respectively)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (1136/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (657/1)
Average odds: 926/1

Best predictors: ECI & debutant Massey Ratings (6/10)
Worst predictors: Feneley, Feneley's mother & WhoScored.com (2/10)
Average score: 3.89/10

Best predicted result: Brighton WIN (16/18)
Worst predicted results: Everton vs Liverpool DRAW, Bournemouth WIN & Aston Villa vs Man City DRAW (1/18)

Everyone's results:

 

Leaderboard (>2/3; 5/6)

This week's predos:



Good luck!

S12M6: Shuttered

Erling Braut Haaland is not human. That is all. Back to back hat-tricks, and he's got 9 goals already. He's making the transition from Germany effortlessly and the whole "City will struggle to adapt to him" narrative sounds really silly already. 

He's basically a just-finished-puberty Nordic Terminator and I look forward to Aston Villa trying to stop him this weekend. I honestly don't know what they can do, short of Mings, Konsa and Kamara all grabbing a limb and clinging on for dear life whilst John McGinn clambers onto his back and tries to wrestle him to the ground. It's got merit, but the problem is then defending against the rest of the City team with only 7 players. Anyway, as the saying goes....not my circus....

What else? Arsenal playing some great stuff and deservedly 5 wins from 5, but the injuries are starting to mount even before September starts. Liverpool and Man Utd are starting to find some form and Chelsea....well...I don't really know what is a Chelsea these days. I do reckon Tommy T is starting to go a little, so sneaky feeling he's not lasting the season. 

Spurs are doing their thing in getting points without playing well, unlike Brighton and Leeds who are playing well and deserve their points. Fulham are comfortably the best of the promoted sides - Bournemouth are dead already, and have predictably sacked Scott Parker, and I am PRAYING for the Redknapp Return. Newcastle and Palace are the anti-Spurs and are not getting the points their play deserves, whilst on the ballot paper for "which established team will be relegated this year?" we've got some early runners and riders with Everton, Leicester, Wolves & Villa all looking absolutely rubbish.

They should all just sign brilliant Norwegian prodigies. They can have that advice for free.

Let's get statty:

M4

This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed predicted result: West Ham WIN (4/16)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (1685/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (258/1)
Average odds: 822/1

Best predictors: Joe Abbott & Josh Daniels (9/10) - Both thwarted by Man Utd!
Worst predictors: Few of us (5/10)
Average score: (7/10)

Best predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted result: Brentford vs Everton DRAW (1/16)

M5

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Arsenal WINS (15/15)
Most disputed predicted result: Fulham vs Brighton (3-5-7 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (703/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (245/1)
Average odds: 463/1

Best predictors: David Graniewitz & Zoë Daniels (6/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of us (3/10)
Average score: 3.93/10

Best predicted results: Liverpool & Arsenal WINS (15/15)
Worst predicted results: Southampton WIN & Bournemouth vs Wolves DRAW (1/15)

Everyone's results:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 4/5)

To this week's predos:

Good Luck all!

S12M4&M5: Scramble

 Hello!

Back in my home set up with wifi, time, mutliple screens etc and - conveniently - 3 weeks of results to get into!

Woohoo!

Not much point in rehashing the first few weeks of the season other than to say, I've done the Duckworth-Lewis calculation and, should the inevitable end of the world happen right now, Arsenal will win the league. So, boom. Eternal champions and all that.

Been an interesting start though. I wrote previously that this was going to be an interesting season with the World Cup break, and the theory goes that points on the board before the World Cup may be even more valuable than normal as late season form will be difficult to predict.

So - slow starts for Liverpool, Chelsea & Man Utd are less than ideal (for them) although clearly plenty of time to make things click. Wolves, Leicester, Everton and West Ham however are in for a long season, as are Bournemouth who looks favourites to go down. Fulham look the strongest of the promoted teams so far.

Anyway, lots of time for that all to change.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 1

This week, 18 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool WIN (17/18)
Most disputed prediction: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (5-5-8 split)

Highest odds:  Steven Daniels (886/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (298/1)
Average odds:  511/1

Best predictor: ECI (7/10)
Worst predictor: David Graniewitz (2/10)
Average score: 5.11/10

Best predicted result: Spurs & Arsenal WINS (16/18)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (0/18)

Matchday 2

This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (19/19)
Most disputed prediction: Brentford vs Man Utd (7-5-7 split)

Highest odds:  Aron Kleiman (1446/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1318/1)
Average odds:  1382/1

Best predictor: Joe Abbott (7/10)
Worst predictor: Whole bunch of 3/10s
Average score: 4.68/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace DRAW (0/19)

Matchday 3

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (15/15)
Most disputed prediction: Fulham vs Brentford (4-5-6 split)

Highest  & lowest odds:  Josh Daniels (2454/1)
Average odds:  2454/1

Best predictors: Bunch of 5/10s
Worst predictors: Bunch of 2/10s
Average score: 3.53/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (15/15)
Worst predicted results: Southampton, Man Utd WINS & Newcastle vs Man City DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's results:

Please welcome Lawro replacement, Chris Sutton

The first leaderboard of the season (>2/3 game weeks, 3/3)

To this week's predos - 2 matchdays!:

Good luck all!

S12: The Long March Starts

 August comes around again with its sunny days and yellow transfer ticker. This season however, is unique. Which I feel I say a lot, and also, I guess, is a tautology by definition, but anyway, it's unique this season for unique reasons. Unique² if you like. 

As you are all aware, this winter sees the not-all-all-corruptly-awarded Summer World Cup being held in Qatar, bastion of Human Rights, and a totally suitable venue which definitely has the requisite infrastructure to support the second largest sporting event on the planet, and definitely isn't sub-contracting their infrastructure needs to *checks notes* Iran. And It's also unique because this will be the first tournament in history where the country, and not just the buildings will be air conditioned. At a time of increased focus on global warming, and data suggesting a 10% increase in energy demands associated purely with air conditioning in urban areas. Yay, can't wait.

(Ed: I will be basically ignoring the World Cup as a personal boycott. However, should Football Come Home, I will not boycott the inevitable Bank Holiday. Call me a hypocrite if you want. 🤷‍♂️)

Anyway, what this means is the the season starts early, goes until the 12th November, when the pre-WC break starts, half the league go off to Qatar, and the other half go off to Dubai on holiday, and then the league resumes with the Boxing Day fixtures. The season will then end a little bit later than usual too, and presumably, there will be a few more midweek fixtures. Which in fairness, we had last season due to the Covid Postponements, but is an absolute pain in the behind for this blog. I'm working on an idea to try and mitigate this without tanking the integrity of the scoring system AND causing major amounts of work for me.

So, welcome back to old friends. New players - check out the "Rules" tab above - but it's a pretty simple concept. Fill in the form, get points for right answers. Free to play, trophy for the winner at the end of the season. Reminder WhatsApp group exists, should you want to join.

So, let's start with some season predictions at large....

Season Predictions

S12M1 Predictions

Good luck everyone! And remember - please share this with anyone who you think might be interested to play this season!

S11: Done

This might be my most delayed blog post yet. The season finished a month ago and there was a fair bit of fatigue. Plus all the exciting stuff my end had happened and I just lost the urge.

Forgot about the pre-season predos to review though. And the trophy awarding. And the shaming. So....here we are.

Probably will skip the match recap though.

So, let's get statty:

14 people played M38

Most popular predicted result: Leicester WIN (14/14)

Most disputed result: Brighton vs West Ham & Burnley vs Newcastle (5-4-5 & 4-5-5 split respectively)

Highest/Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (557/1 )

Best predictors: Joe Abbott & Nick Taylor-Collins (9/10)

Worst predictors: AFM & Zoe Daniels (5/10)

Average score: 7/10

Best predicted result: Leicester WIN (14/14)

Worst predicted result: Brighton & Crystal Palace WINS (5/14)

Everyone's scores:

To the final leaderboard of the season:

David Brickman takes his title back and retains the trophy for a 3rd year. Sucks to be a homeless computer model, ECI..... who finished a long way back, level with Joe Abbott. Another David brings up the rear...who if he'd played a bit more might have found the 0.02 to overtake Raffi Kleiman.

Congrats DB!

The others who played who didn't play enough have their scores below.

Right, let's review the pre-season predos:

Winner: City - Nick, Steve, Silverman, Me & Raffi all got it. Nathan, Joe Abbott and tribalists Machta & Gaj went for Chelsea. The equally partisan Josh D went for Arsenal and David Brickman loses his trophy because he went for Man Utd.

2nd: Weirdly, Brickman is the only one who went for Liverpool. Abbott & Nathan went for Chelsea, Raffi for Man United and everyone else for Man City.

3rd & 4th: Raffi went Chelsea in 3rd. Nobody else did. Brickman & Josh went for Man City, Joe Abbott, Machat & Gaj went for Liverpool and everyone else for Man Utd. Nobody went for Spurs in 4th. Liverpool, Chelsea & Man Utd made up the spread.

5th: Leicester were popular - Nathan, Silverman, Machta, Gaj & Abbott were all seduced by Brendan. Brickman went for Spurs for his second solo. Nick, Steve & me all got a bit excited and went for Mik Magic whilst Josh went for Liverpool. Close.

6th: A vote each for Villa (Josh) and West Ham (Gaj), along with Spurs getting votes from Machta, Nick & Steve. I thought it'd be Leicester, as did Raffi. Joe Abbott, Brickman, Nathan & Silverman all got it correct with Arsenal.

As a group, we went for

1. Man City
2. Chelsea
3. Man Utd
4. Liverpool
5. Leicester
6. Arsenal (by 0.02 from Spurs)

Relegation

David Silverman - TekABoo. Burnley, Watford & Norwich like a boss. In fairness, literally everyone got Norwich. Nathan, Steven, Joe Abbott & Josh all also went for Watford. Machta the only other one to get Burnley. Surprises - a few for Brentford & Wolves, plenty for Newcastle which was a good shout until Saudi Arabia got involved.

Golden Gloves
7/11 went for Alisson or Ederson. So well done - 20 clean sheets each. Brickman went for Pope - brave. Josh went for Leno - 1 clean sheet in 4 games. 2 votes for Mendy.

Golden Boot

Josh Daniels & David Brickman went for Salah. Nobody went for Son. 4 votes for Kane (17 goals) & Lukaku (8 goals). 1 vote, from Steve for Werner (4 goals).

League Cup

Nobody went for Liverpool. We really didn't fancy them this season....City & United made up most of the votes, 2 for Chelsea & 1 for Arsenal.

FA Cup
David Brickman went for Spurs. Everyone else went for Arsenal or Chelsea, which is not unreasonable given the recent history. But nope, nobody again.

Champions League

Joe Abbott went for Bayern. Everyone else went for PSG. Nobody thought about La Real

Europa League

Midtylland

A Spanish club

Leicester

Sevilla

Lyon

Napoli

Napoli

Leicester

Man United

Leicester

N/A

Better not talk about any of that. Nobody

Best New Signing:

By the WhoScored.com numbers, Jack Grealish (7.17, David Brickman). But based on transfer fee, context etc, Ben White in 2nd place (6.88, Nathan Daniels) is probably a fair shout too.

Other: Lukaku, Sancho, Lokonga, Ashley Young and Boubakar Soumare. Er, yep.

Worst New Signing:

Clear winner here was Bryan Gil (6.15, Joe Abbott) who was packed off in disgrace to Valencia in January. Somehow I think he won that one. Lukaku, White & Grealish all made an appearance again, as did Kane (who presumably Steve thought was going to sign for City), Romero and Ramsdale who were also pretty good signings. Josh King and Andros Townsend, who is 30(!!!!) made up the rest of the pool.

First Manager sacked

Finally, to the sack race, where 4 people correctly picked Xisco to go first (Nathan, Brickman, Steve & Silverman). Nick, Joe Abbott & I went for Steve Bruce who went 2nd, whilst Gaj went for "Norwich" - Daniel Farke went 4th. Raffi went for Bielsa who was the penultimate of the 10 sackings (from 9 clubs....big congrats to Silverman who actually said "Watford, at least twice"). Hassenhutl wasn't sacked - Josh and Arteta is the best manager in the league, @JosephMachta you bitter little man.

And on that note - happy summer, see you all in August.

S11M38: Early Finish

I wrote last week that we could be all done.

We of course aren't. I mean, we sort of are - it's highly improbable that City won't win the league, Spurs take 4th and Leeds go down....but stranger things etc

Pressure does funny things though. Mahrez loves a big penalty choke. Arsenal ran out of puff - ironically, so have Chelsea. Lots of limping to the beaches of the world incoming. And as for the relegation battle - I mean Everton really did their best to still be in the mix to go down too

On that note, we saw Billy Sharp headbutted and Patrick Vieira accosted by drunken fans unable to control their elation and who did, and could, have caused harm to staff. In the bin with them and frankly 24 weeks in prison and a 2 year banning order from football (unenforceable in reality) is just not a firm enough deterrent for behaviour like this.

No issues with emotion. Just don't be a ****.

Let's get statty:

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (15/15)
Most disputed prediction: Leeds vs Brighton (4-3-8 split)

Highest/Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (131/1)

Best predictor: Natan Kleiman (6.67/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (2.22.10)
Average score: 3.85/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (14/15)
Worst predicted result: West Ham/Man City DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard (>2/3; 25/36)

I believe, that we have a champion. David Brickman has it wrapped up with a matchweek to spare - unusually but I don't think uniquely...although I'm not going back to check. If he scores a 0, and EuroClubIndex score a 10, by my maths, David still wins by 0.02

So in doing so, he becomes the first human to win a second title, and continues the alternating years with EuroClubIndex to a 4th season! ECI seem to win in alternating years - so early quid on them to take next year's crown!

To this week's predos for the final time!



Good luck guys!

S11M37: Will it go to the wire?

 2 full matchdays left. Couple of extra catch up games. And then that's it. Season done. And the chances are, that the powers that be (let's be clear, Sky Sports, the Premier League) will get their final day showdown.

At the top - Liverpool don't play until Wednesday as they're in the FA Cup final. So if Man City win, they'll have a 6 point gap. Liverpool could then only win the title on goal difference, needing to effect a minimum of an 8 goal swing across their fixtures away at Southampton and home to Wolves, whilst Man City face Villa at home on the last day. Unlikely I suppose....but a big win midweek maybe puts that at a 4 goal ask, which is plausible.

Chelsea can guarantee 3rd place with a win. The wobble seems to have wibbled.

The final CL spot will go to North London. 1 point. 2 games. Arsenal are marginally favourites according to the prediction models, but neck and neck with the bookies who smell the momentum shift after last night. They both play against a team scrapping for survival, and a team who's fate is already known. So...will there be another momentum change after this weekend?

Man Utd aren't safe in the EL yet. West Ham could take their place and relegate ten Hag to the ECL for his first season - Wolves also have eyes on sneaking that spot if West Ham fall away.

I'll gloss over everything down to Everton now. With Norwich and Watford down, there's one relegation spot. Leeds currently sit in 18th and can get a maximum of 40 points. Everton have 3 games to play and are on 36 points. A win at home to Brentford, combined with Leeds failing to beat Brighton sees them safe. And so then it's Burnley or Leeds for the final spot - level on points but Burnley having an extra game to play.

So this set of matches could see everything settled, or nothing settled - but I guess most likely, something in between.

Let's get statty:
This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs  Everton (6-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (733/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (569/1)
Average odds: 630/1

Best predictors: Feneley & Me, reunited in victory after 9 years (7/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of you (4/10)
Average score: 5.13/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Chelsea vs Wolves & Liverpool vs Spurs DRAWS (1/16 - Feneley the former, me the latter) 

Everyone's results:

The penultimate leaderboard (>2/3 matchdays; 23/34)

DB	5.73
ECI	5.36
SD	5.33
JA	5.33
JD	5.28
Lawro	5.23
RD	5.10
AFM	5.05
WSC	5.04
NJSPTC	5.04
AK	4.90
AF	4.84
ZD	4.67
DSIL	4.55
NK	4.53
RK	4.52

This week's predos:


Good luck everyone!