Matchday 36: Is this where it all gets sorted out?

Alright. Hands up if you thought this was going to happen a few weeks back. Did any of us see City clawing their way back, or conversely, Man Utd leaving the door ajar even a crack? What we have, in essence, is a playoff for the league title. Very exciting - although I'd still hope for a Richter 10 earthquake to hit, epicentred around the centre spot. For what it's worth, I wouldn't like to see any unnecessary loss of life - just both Manchester clubs retire from the league programme due to "acts of God".

That'd hand the league title to the 3rd placed team - conveniently currently Arsenal. We have our trickiest (on paper) remaining game at Stoke, and I think 6 out of 9 points should see us secure, regardless of what happens elsewhere. Spurs & Newcastle both play resurgent relegation battlers whilst Chelsea meet with QPR, who apparently won't shake John Terry's hand.

Can't say I blame them, and I'm distraught by the news that the Yank-abusing, disabled-parking-space-thieving, shoplifter-mothered, drug-dealer-fathered, teammate-s-missus-shagging, teammate-missus-shagging-brothered, slow-motion-diving-to-head-a-ball-at-ankle-height, penalty-slipping, dead-eyed, squeaky-voiced, allegedly-racist, topless-except-for-the-fucking-captain's-armband bloke will still get to lift the trophy in Munich should they prevail. It's taken all the fun out of them potentially doing Spurs and Terry crying (again) like a little girl.

Liverpool look to build some momentum with a tough trip to Norwich, some football is happening in the Midlands, Wales and at Everton and Bolton face a tricky task to stay with the pack at Sunderland.

All in all, quite exciting and I'm not expecting massive scores this week.

My predictions:

Everton vs Fulham - EVERTON
Stoke vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Sunderland vs Bolton - DRAW
Swansea vs Wolves - SWANSEA
WBA vs Aston Villa - DRAW
Wigan vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Norwich vs Liverpool - NORWICH
Chelsea vs QPR - CHELSEA
Spurs vs Blackburn - SPURS
Man City vs Man Utd - CITY (and I reckon Tevez will score too.....)

Total Odds: 2449/1 with Paddypower

Whoever posted last week, and hasn't got a score in the graph, let me know - I think you were down as "Anonymous".

Predications in the comments as usual - Good luck

Matchday 35 Results: Could it really be?

Well well well. The season that keeps on giving offers up yet another twist. When this season is reviewed in the future, it'll be known as the season where no-one wanted to take their opportunities. Man Utd have given Man City hope that if they win at Eastlands next week, their first championship for 40 odd years may follow. Arsenal's vaguely secure grasp on third has now been whittled away, whilst Spurs and Chelsea haven't taken the opportunity to secure their own place in the Champions' League. Any scouser, of either persuasion will hardly be thrilled by their season. Arguably, only Newcastle in the top half have really excelled.

Wolves' relegation became official this week, but Blackburn and QPR both secured valuable wins to keep the battle going for just a while longer. It's fair to say that only Swansea and Norwich would be particularly happy with their term's work. I make that 3/20 teams to have had a good season (obviously whoever wins the league will be the 4th).

Before I get to the stats, the first person to post last week did so under the name "Anonymous" - whoever it was, let me know and I'll update the records accordingly.

To the numbers:

This week, 15 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (14/15 or 93% concordance)

Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Sunderland (5-4-6 split)

Longest odds: Doron Salomon 6990/1

Shortest odds: Feneley 1952/1

Average odds: 4510/1

Best predictor: Me & WhoScored.com (6/10)

Worst predictor: Joe Miller (1/10)

Average Score: 4/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (14/15)

Worst predicted result: WBA WIN (0/15)

Villain of the week: None - no scores high enough.

Everyone's scores:

And now for a rather interesting leaderboard:

Very little movement in terms of position, however in numerical terms an interesting week. Joe loses 0.16 from his score, but Nick & Yanik are unable to increase their scores and put some pressure on him. There are 3 rounds of matches to go, so a few big switches like that could see a major shake up.

Looking forward to finding out who "Anonymous" is, and I'll see you all later this week for the next set of matches.

Have a good week

Super Results Catch Up & Matchday 35 Predictions

I know I said I wouldn't let results back up again - it wasn't intentional and now it's a messy task. Not gonna go into any waffle other than to say Roberto Martinez has clearly been reading my blog and tacked it up in the dressing room - since I said I want them to go down they've beaten Man Utd and Arsenal and required 2 reffing blunders to not win at Chelsea. There's always next year however...

Let's get resulty:

Matchday 32:

This week, 14 people played

Most popular predicted result: Chelsea & Man Utd WINS (14/14 or 100% concordance)

Most disputed result: Sunderland vs Spurs (6-4-4 split)

Longest odds: Joe Miller 7379/1

Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 500/1 (Only for 9 games though)

Average odds: 3891/1

Best predictor: Doron Salomon & Joe Miller (7/10)

Worst predictor: Jonathan Chernick (3/10)

Average Score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Chelsea & Man Utd WINS (14/14)

Worst predicted result: Fulham WIN (1/14 - well done Doron)

Villain of the week: Martin Atkinson (given retrospectively for Balotelli AND the FA Cup semi gaffe)

Matchday 33:

This week, 13 people played

Most popular predicted result: Newcastle & Man City WINS (12/13 or 92% concordance)

Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Stoke (4-5-4 split)

Longest odds: Jonathan Chernick 9813/1

Shortest odds: Joe Miller 786/1

Average odds: 2723/1

Best predictor: Dan Davis (8/10)

Worst predictor: Josh Daniels (3/10)

Average Score: 6 (actually 6.46 - the highest average score all season)

Best predicted result: Newcastle & Man City WINS (12/13)

Worst predicted result: Wigan & Norwich WINS (0/13)

Villain of the week: Can't remember that far back so none!

and finally...Matchday 34:

This week, 11 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man Utd & Arsenal WINS (11/11 or 100% concordance)

Most disputed result: WBA vs QPR (5-3-3 split)

Longest odds: Doron Salomon 503/1

Shortest odds: Will O'Doherty 107/1

Average odds: 289/1

Best predictor: Jonathan Chernick (6/8)

Worst predictor: Doron Salomon & Lawro (2/8)

Average Score: 4/8

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (11/11)

Worst predicted result: Wigan WIN (0/11)

Villain of the week: Going with Atkinson (as above) as well as blaming John Terry for claiming a goal then having the chutzpah to go on TV and say "I didn't think it went in but what could I do?". Ashley Young is highly commended too.

Right - so the giant results graph is as follows:

Now to the leaderboard:

Yanik gives up second place (by 0.01) which only tightens Joe's grip on first place. Dan Davis the big winner, and Josh Daniels the big loser from the last few weeks.

Right, finally to this week's predictions:

Arsenal vs Chelsea - DRAW

Aston Villa vs Sunderland - DRAW

Blackburn vs Norwich - BLACKBURN

Bolton vs Swansea - BOLTON

Fulham vs Wigan - WIGAN

Newcastle vs Stoke - NEWCASTLE

QPR vs Spurs - SPURS

Man Utd vs Everton - DRAW

Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL

Wolves vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 6421/1 with Paddypower

Predos in the comments as usual, good luck!

ABK: Anyone But Ken

In under 3 weeks, on May 3rd, us Londoners go to the polls for the 4th time to directly elect the Mayor of London. The Mayor has vast influence over the lives of Londoners, with significant control over public transport, policing, housing, local taxation and infrastructure as well as promoting the interests of the capital at home and abroad. With around 7 million residents, I make the argument that the Mayor of London is the most powerful directly elected politician in the UK.

This year, we see a partial rerun of the 2008 election, with 7 candidates standing for the job:

• The incumbent, Boris Johnson (@BackBoris2012) from the Conservative party
• The former mayor from 2000-2008, Ken Livingstone (@ken4london) from the Labour party
• 2008 candidate & former Deputy Assistant Commissioner in the Metropolitan Police, Brian Paddick (@brianpaddick) from the Liberal Democrat party
• Long term London Assembly member and former deputy mayor, Jenny Jones (@greenjennyjones) from the Green Party
• Lawrence Webb (@UKIPWebb4London) from the UKIP party
• Uruguayan/Italian former FCO staffer Carlos Cortiglia from the BNP. I will not be linking through to any of their propaganda, and have only included him for completeness sake. In fact, the title of the blog should be ABCOK.
• The only independent candidate, Siobhan Benita (@Siobhan4mayor) a long term senior civil servant with the Department of Health.

This will not be a post comparing the various policies of those individuals - I'm not going to shill for one candidate or another. For what it's worth, I'm tossing up between Paddick and Benita, but please take a look and make your own mind up. I apologise in advance for the length of this post.

What I do want to say, and the only campaigning I will be doing is sadly a negative point. The single biggest catastrophe, to my mind that could befall the city that I have grown up in and love, is the re-election of Ken as mayor. Other, significantly more famous and eloquent people than I have argued differently - that in a shoot-off between Ken & Boris (which this looks like being), Ken would be better as he is closer to their position on the political compass. With respect, I totally disagree.

Ken Livingstone is bad for London. He is a divisive, controversial figure who revels in the publicity that his attempts to "stick it to the man" have gained him. Labour have already expelled him once from the party and in a forerunner of the recent Bradford-West by-election, their former ally embarrassed them at the polls.

Now I liked Boris on Have I Got News For You, and have enjoyed the 2 occasions where I have bumped into him in London. I don't believe he is the best man for the job, and therefore will not be voting for him. In fact, my previous voting history (Labour, LibDem & Green) places me pretty far from traditional Tory values. However, I agree with him when he says this election is about trust. In fact, I'd say all elections are about trust, and I have none for Ken.

Policy:

Elections theoretically are policy based, so it seems a good place to start. Disagreements on policy don't really constitute the reason for my intense dislike of Ken, but it is important to note that I feel his policies reflect his personality.

Ken has centred his campaign around Transport - a vaunted cut in fares saving £1000-£1600 over 4 years. Unfortunately, I don't believe him. Ken repeatedly lied when he was mayor about rising fare costs and I have not seen a single opinion outside Ken's core supporters supporting his maths this time round. That includes the board of TfL (who may be biased) and several independent academic and economists. Perhaps the strongest argument came from Brian Paddick at the Evening Standard Mayoral Debate this week, when he said

"Boris may play the fool but he isn't one. If he thought the money was there to cut fares in electoral year, why wouldn't he have done it?"

A 'fare' point, I thought. So aside from the crux of his manifesto being built on quicksand, why else will Ken not do this time?

Some of his other ideas have been ridiculous to the extent that they beg the question if he even understands the role - claiming he would devolve more powers to make London similar to New York...I'm pretty sure that would have to come from Westminster who are unlikely to go down that route. An idea to set up an energy cooperative buying cheap power through TfL and selling it to ordinary Londoners sounds great - but also dubious in terms of legality. Why would an organisation with no experience in delivering energy to private residences suddenly become experts in this industry? He's also claimed he will relaunch the EMA in London to persuade teens from disadvantaged backgrounds to remain in education. Very noble - I strongly believe it should never have been scrapped - but where does the money come from? He has repeatedly stated that he will not raise his share of Council Tax, and the coalition government are unlikely to give more money to Ken than they would to Boris.


UPDATE: Ken's EMA promise is centred on getting local authorities to use their own budgets for this project. An area he has no control over, and something they don't appear particularly enthusiastic to do. It sounds a perfect Ken policy - attractive to voters but unlikely to be achieved under the mandate of the Mayor.

All this is policy based, and that's fair game for all politicians. My deep seated antipathy to Ken comes from his personality - and this seems to be a perfect example of an election in an era of personality politics.

As I mentioned above, Ken is divisive and disingenuous.

Divisive:

I'll start with my own community. A few weeks ago, a letter was written to Ed Miliband from various Jewish community leaders about a meeting they had had with Ken Livingstone. The issues that particularly struck with me were Ken's inability to differentiate between Jews, Zionists and Israelis. Maybe it's because I'm comfortable with all 3 terms, but I can't understand how a professional politician in London should struggle to the extent that he uses the term Zionist as a pejorative in an incorrect context. I also have a visceral reaction to a man who cannot understand why people might be upset with his refusal to even acknowledge that inviting and then hugging Al-Qaradawi could be considered offensive, and his income from the now banned Press TV troubles me.

The press ran with an angle that Ken said 'Jews vote Tory 'cos they're rich' - a friend of mine was at this meeting and swears blind that he didn't say that, and that the conversation was taken out of context. I believe her - Ken gave a sort of apology a few days later, but why even get yourself close to that situation. I believe the reason is that being the pragmatic politician that he is, he has decided that the Muslim vote in East London is more valuable than the middle-class centre left vote that he might lose with this controversy and therefore has decided to go down a vaguely sectarian route - not to the same extent as Galloway in Bradford, but enough to make me feel that he is unsuitable to represent the fantastically multicultural city. Two high profile Jewish journalists, both of whom were Labour supporters wrote of their inability to overlook Ken 'being Ken' this time - previous indiscretions include calling a Jewish journalist a "concentration camp guard" for which he was suspended from office.

I can't think of any other reason - Al-Qaradawi is well known for his homophobic comments and someone as progressive on Gay rights as Ken was in the 1980s can't have failed to know that. He decided to make that call and now lives with the consequences. Another, more recent example of offence to the LGBT community came when he claimed to use the phrase "riddled with [gays]" in a positive manner. Again, Paddick (openly gay himself) called him on this - "riddled with" being commonly associated with an infection, especially HIV, which is of higher prevalence in the LGBT community than the general population. It seems that his tactic is to make a headline-grabbing inflammatory remark before offering a partial apology to appease his critics.

Disingenuous:

I'm going to only use examples from the last 2 weeks to prove my point here. It's really that easy. Working back, in chronological order, I'll start with "Bus-advertgate". Boris does something good, Ken has a pop for not being good enough. That's fine - that's politics. However, what's wrong is that Ken did exactly the same thing, except it took him 3 years to get to grips with, rather than a few weeks, whilst Gay Times magazine were asked to change their advert for a more "acceptable" image, despite there being several examples of more explicit heterosexual imagery used in advertising on the tube. Exhibit A of Ken not being generous with the truth.

Then let's take Ken's tears at his own campaign video. Aside from this being rather egotistical, and probably a cynical attempt to appear more 'human', the whole premise of his tears was that the responsibility of helping ordinary Londoners live through tough times was so great. Probably is, however the video was composed of paid actors reading lines, in some cases rather blatantly (see from 0.07, 0.48 & 1.46).

Finally, and most pertinently, let's talk tax. If Ken loses the election, this will be THE defining reason why. Again, it's a morality issue with Ken - there is no question of criminal evasion of taxes. Instead, it's a guy who campaigns for ordinary Londoners, who has spent as long as I can remember having a pop at Boris for his "chickenfeed" comments about his columnist fee from the Telegraph, as well as continuously referencing his support for the cut in top-rate income tax from 50% to 45% now doing exactly the same as these immoral banker types he rails against. To my mind, there is nothing wrong with using the complexities of the tax code to keep as much of your income in your own pockets rather than given to the tax man. I'm for a simpler, more thorough tax system that doesn't allow for this, but I don't deny the rights of individuals to try and beat a terrible system. Ken does, and that's why this tax issue doesn't go away. It is hypocrisy of the highest level, and he knows it. That's why 1 week after agreeing with the other 3 major party candidate to transparently publish their tax returns whilst on Newsnight, he is the only 1 of the 4 not to do so. That's why, he has blustered his way through a week, claiming to have paid enough tax "to buy a new aircraft carrier" whilst changing the percentage paid, as well as falsely accusing Boris of having a similar arrangament.

Again, Paddick embarrasses Ken by refuting his claim that he was right to channel funds through his company as he employed a staff of 3 - one of whom was his wife. As Paddick pointed out, that income would have been tax deductible, and therefore there was no need to pay them through a company. He could have been a sole trader like Paddick, paying the usual rate of income tax, rather than the lower rate of corporation tax. At the Evening Standard debate, this issue led to more noise than any other on the night, and led to calls of "champagne socialist". To me, this issue sums Ken up. He says the right thing (according to my political stance for society), but does whatever is in his own best interests. He is a hypocrite and a liar, and fails to live by the first motto I ever learnt - that of my primary school: Deeds not Words.

All this, added to a man who allegedly pushed a friend down stairs, leading to a concussion, or who's core team consists of the seemingly corrupt means that Ken is possibly the least suitable candidate to represent London. I am in no way intentionally promoting Boris, nor any of the other candidates, except by comparison. All I'm saying is, come May 3rd, please....Anyone But Ken.

Please feel free to leave comments below. Agree, disagree - say what you like but please stay respectful and polite. Follow me on Twitter @ccdaniels65 if you want to hear more of what I have to say about anything....there is a lot of football talk though!

Matchday 33 Predictions

I'm not really sure what to do this week. There are only 6 games, which is under my 2/3 rule that I have for the leaderboard - if I were to be consistent and apply it to the game then there would be no blog this week.

However, as the FA Cup Semi Finals are all Premier League affairs, I think I'm going to include them so it'll be an 8 game week...seems like the best I can do.

Without further ado:

Norwich vs Man City - MAN CITY

Sunderland vs Wolves - SUNDERLAND

Swansea vs Blackburn - SWANSEA

WBA vs QPR - DRAW

Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD

Arsenal vs Wigan - ARSENAL

FA Cup semi-finals (at end of 90 mins)

Liverpool vs Everton - DRAW

Spurs vs Chelsea - SPURS

Total odds: 218/1 (PaddyPower)

For what it's worth, I'm looking for a 2nd consecutive Grand National win; this year with Shakalakaboomboom at 16/1 - I know the square root of John Terry fans about horse racing though, so I wouldn't copy me necessarily...

Predos in the comments - Bon Chance one and all...

Matchday 31 Results & Matchday 32 Predos

I have a confession. I have a begrudging admiration for that alcoholic geriatric with the terrible dance moves who can be found in a red brick box in Salford every other week. If, as looks likely, City conspire to throw away the league title, then it's down to the extraordinary ability of Fergie to get more from his team than a schoolboy-esque squad by squad comparison suggests he should. Arsenal did an Arsenal and took their collective eye off the ball (and Vermaelen could probably invest in a new pair of boots too), 'Arry had rediscovered the idea of playing players in their correct positions to good effect and Robbie Di Matteo looks to have the Avram Grant award for Caretaker-Manager-who-actually-does-nothing-and-the-senior-pros-run-the-squad-to-better-effect-than-the-big-name-foreign-manager-who-was-not-given-adequate-time (West London Division). That said, I once saw an episode of MTV Cribs round RDM's house, and seems like a nice bloke, unlike Robbie Savage. His house was a cream monstrosity and made me hate him even more than his tweeted videos of his dancing in the car after Derby victories last season. Shola Ameobi had a nice house too.

I've sort of gone off topic.

Er, Newcastle good, Lolverpool terrible and Reina bloody stupid. So what if Perch acted like a girl? If you really want to headbutt someone, then just do it. Square between the eyes, bridge of the nose etc. If you're going to get sent off, at least mitigate it with a decent hit a la Zizou in 2010. Sure he let his team and his country down, but at least Materazzi knew he'd probably taken it too far.

If you have 8 minutes to waste, and want to see what someone with far too much time on their hands and an unhealthy interest in Zidane does, then watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnKXXRkO1Y4

Seem to have got distracted again. Wolves are down, but might actually have a little competition down the bottom. For my money, I want Wigan to go as they don't seem to do anything other than capitulate to Man Utd twice a season and 'cos that might help exorcise the ghosts of 2010, and QPR 'cos I'd like to hear Joey Barton defend that one. I have QPR supporting friends and family, and I'm sorry for them, but meh.

Let's talk numbers...

This week, 16 people played

Most popular predicted result: Everton WIN (16/16 or 100% concordance)

Most disputed result: Wigan vs Stoke (3-6-7 split)

Longest odds: Feneley 6297/1

Shortest odds: Sam Ruback (again) 603/1

Average odds: 2946/1

Best predictor: Me! 7/10 (makes up for a terrible few weeks)

Worst predictor: Feneley 2/10

Average Score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Everton WIN (16/16)

Worst predicted result: QPR WIN (JT the only one prescient enough to forecast that, congrats)

Villain of the week: Whilst it was good for me, Andy Carroll's dive when he'd already rounded the keeper at 0-0 seemed like a particularly stupid idea. It was also poorly executed. I saw Tom Daley et al a few weeks back at an Olympic warm up event and there were one or two differences between their efforts. More work needed at Melwood, Ug.

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard:

Big winner was me, big loser was Feneley. Sam Ruback moves up for the first time in ages, whilst at the top, the gap is now 0.3 - the closest it's been for quite some time. Maybe, just maybe...could Yanik catch Joe? 7 weeks left, so it's definitely all to play for. One big week either way could prove decisive, or will it be an attritional chase?

Either way, I'd better look for some ticker tape on Amazon and have a word with Boris about an open top bus...

This week's predos:

Swansea vs Newcastle - DRAW

Sunderland vs Spurs -DRAW

Bolton vs Fulham - DRAW

Chelsea vs Wigan - CHELSEA

Liverpool vs Aston Villa - LIVERPOOL

Norwich vs Everton - EVERTON

WBA vs Blackburn - WBA

Stoke vs Wolves - STOKE

Man Utd vs QPR - MAN UTD

Arsenal vs Man City - ARSENAL

Total odds: 1525/1 (Paddypower)

and as I'm unlikely to post again before Monday, here are the predos for Matchday 33:

Everton vs Sunderland - EVERTON

Newcastle vs Bolton - NEWCASTLE

Spurs vs Norwich - SPURS

Aston Villa vs Stoke - DRAW

Fulham vs Chelsea - DRAW

Blackburn vs Liverpool - BLACKBURN

Man City vs WBA - MAN CITY

Wigan vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Wolves vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

QPR vs Swansea - SWANSEA

Total odds: 1205/1 (Paddypower)

For those observing a Judeo/Christian calendar, happy holidays. To those who don't, enjoy the bank holiday and let's hope for some great football over the next week.

Predos in the comments as per usual, good luck guys!

Matchday 29 & 30 Results: The promised post

See...I'm a man of my word.

Good Lord, is it a difficult job when it starts to back up - my new month's resolution (it exists... Google it....) is to never do that again (until next season at any rate)

Also to my utter chaos, numbers were a little down and we're missing out experts almost entirely (although that's not entirely my fault - for some reason Lawro only predicted half the fixtures one week...)

To the numbers:

Matchday 29 saw 11 people play

Most popular predicted result: Man Utd, Spurs & Liverpool WINS (10/11 or 91% concordance)

Most disputed result: Wigan vs WBA & Blackburn vs Sunderland (4-4-3 split)

Longest odds: Josh Daniels 4421/1

Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 717/1

Average odds: 2423/1

Best predictor: Yanik Joshi (6/9 - the Villa/Bolton game was called off)

Worst predictor: Me (2/9)

Average Score: 4/9

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (10/11)

Worst predicted result: QPR WIN (0/11)

No villain of the week, as I can't remember that far back

Matchday 30, 10 people played

Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Man Utd WINS (10/10 or 100% concordance)

Most disputed result: Chelsea vs Spurs & Bolton vs Blackburn (5-3-2 and 3-5-2 split respectively)

Longest odds: Will O'Doherty 8154/1

Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 438/1

Average odds: 2876/1

Best predictor: Yanik Joshi, Doron Salomon, Will O'Doherty, Euro Club Index & WhoScored.com (6/10)

Worst predictor: Lawro (3/10)

Average Score: 5/10

Best predicted result:Arsenal & Man Utd WINS (10/10)

Worst predicted result: Wigan WIN (1/10 - congrats to Will O'Doherty)

Again, no villain of the week as I wasn't allowed to watch MOTD last week. :-(

Yanik was the big winner, whilst I'm probably the big loser.

The leaderboard, correct as of the end of Matchday 30:

Very little movement in terms of places, but Yanik breaks the 5.00 mark, and the midtable drop ever further away from the top 2. With only 8 weeks to go, at what point will the championship be claimed?

I'll do the results for this week's matches this week in a far shorter blog!

Have a great week guys