S12M29-31: Easter Break Megapost

As ever post-international break, I'm not rehashing 2 week old football.
Suffice it to say that the clocks have changed, the weather is "warmer" and we're into the home straight of the season now. Eesh.

S12M28: A job half done

Would you believe this this week, I was super organised? Got the stats and graphs and whatnots all sorted by Tuesday and could have done a bit of a draft blog ready to publish yesterday.

Couldawouldshoulda

Got home from the football last night near to midnight and suddenly noticed there's a Friday night game and now the rush is on. 

Shakes Hand At Clouds.gif

So,  rapid recap, then to the good stuff.

Liverpool's Jekyll & Hyde season continued, with the murdery persona coming to the fore at Bournemouth. I do like Stevenson. The man can write a good page turner. 

Everton are going to be fine - they'll get a few wins and will be safe by 4 or 5 points in the end. Same for Leeds I suspect. Chelsea have found some form, and frankly, it's not that funny or surprising. More spending loads of money to get worse please. Spurs did a Spurs and won the no-pressure game, whilst Paddy V has shafted Arsenal twice in a week - needlessly giving away a late penalty to give up the game to Man City before removing himself from the dugout to show Arteta the same courtesy.

Sunday Funday at the cottage saw Arsenal romp the first half, whilst draws at Old Trafford (glum) and the Olimpico (Moyes is going to survive again isn't he....) provided an appetite for 4.30pm fireworks.

Of sorts. The VAR sorts. Wolves will feel very aggrieved, but Newcastle took 3 points to keep the race for 4th alive.

S12M27: Stop Listening to Talksport

The universe is a funny old thing. Last week I had nothing to say. This week, the smile has not left my face. What a few days.

Humans like stories. We're a narrative species, not a numerate species. So we massively over-index things that "fit", especially if it's 1) recent and 2) fits pre-existing beliefs.

The voting of the PFA Player of the Year award often reflects this - a hot streak from December-February before the voting period will count for more than a blistering start to the season reverting to the mean. We also see this in form being extrapolated into something much more concrete without the right power behind the data.

Case in point: 

Narrative: Miguel Almiron hit a hot streak and Newcastle climbed into 3rd place. The Saudi PIF project has been turbocharged by years.

Reality: They're much improved but still some way off a title challenge. This will no doubt come should investment continue to flow (oh hello LIV golf litigation spilling over....), but clearly, it won't be this year. Newcastle's form in 2023 suggests a Europa League/Conference League spot is more likely. Progress - but not turbocharged. 3 points from the last 15 available.

Case in point: 

Narrative: Man Utd are back, swaggering to a Quadruple and swatting away all in their way.
Reality: Rashford in a purple patch, certain toxic Portuguese elements removed and realistically, a reversion to where a squad with that level of talent and expenditure should be - in and around the Top 4 conversation. However, not really in the running for a title race this season.

Case in point:

Narrative: Poor plucky Spurs cannot compete with the riches around them.
Reality: Spurs have spent significant sums poorly and have a wage bill 15% higher than that of Arsenal and have spent just shy of £400m (net £300m) since 2020 (higher than all but 4 clubs). Liverpool, for comparison have spent £300m (net £180m) in the same period. The talent could have been there - it's just been poorly managed internally. See also Chelsea (on steroids).

So - let's settle down. There's a third of the season still to play and whilst strata have appeared, nothing is immovable at this point. 

So, this weekend, Man City swatted aside Newcastle - who did have their chances to be honest. Arsenal beat Bournemouth in a game that will live long in the memory - 96+minutes between first and last goals. It was a day for home wins - Villa beating lacklustre Crystal Palace, Chelsea getting their first win a ages against Leeds, and Southampton climbing off the bottom by beating Leicester. Brighton swatted aside West Ham who will no doubt be managed by someone new in August. Wolves continued their resurgence with a great scissor kick finish from the edge of the area by Adama Traore to climb into the relative safety of midtable and 
consign Spurs to a 9th defeat of the season. The race for the last 2 CL places is now very tight.

Of course, this was helped by matters on Sunday. Liverpool had one of those games, hilariously against Man Utd. xG be damned, that was just a collapse. England's cricket team (pre-Bazball) would have been proud. Notts Forest also got a decent draw, coming back from behind twice to keep Everton in the mire.

Final game was in Southwest London where Brentford thrillingly beat Fulham, with hot prospect Manor Solomon (the highest scoring National Trust property in the PL ahead of Dewsbury Hall) socring for a 5th consecutive game. Wouldn't mind that ending now please...

S12M26: Smoke Rings

Sometimes, it's really easy to decide what to write about.

This is not one of those weeks. I'm not doing VAR again. I'm not doing the end times at Chelsea yet.

Writer's block. Not the rubbish sort where a novelist moans a bit then drinks some whisky early on in the day but proper writer's block where you can *write* something - you know the whole "just put something down on paper and start from there" thing, but it's utter guff and before you know it, you've written 200 words and said nothing. 

Columnists. They have a hard job. Imagine having to do this stuff for sustenance instead of just moaning a bit. I write a column for a quarterly magazine (if you haven't read it, why not) and that's hard enough to find inspo for but at least I have 3 months to stare into the middle distance thinking. Every week. Madness. 

Anyway, Manor Solomon is scoring all the goals, Arsenal have got some Mojo back, which isn't entirely true for Everton. Everyone's favourite typo got off to a good start at Elland Road, whilst West Ham and Man City went goal craaaazy against defensive behemoths Notts Forest (42 conceded, second worst in division) & Bournemouth (48 conceded, worst in division). Napoleon hated Waterloo only 25% as much as Liverpool hate Selhurst Park - points shared there before Spurs got their first win against Chelsea at home in years - more presents from the generous chaps at Boehly Inc. This has led to the comedic stylings of Conte being nominated for Manager of the Month for 3 Spurs wins despite not being present for any of them.