The universe is a funny old thing. Last week I had nothing to say. This week, the smile has not left my face. What a few days.
Humans like stories. We're a narrative species, not a numerate species. So we massively over-index things that "fit", especially if it's 1) recent and 2) fits pre-existing beliefs.
The voting of the PFA Player of the Year award often reflects this - a hot streak from December-February before the voting period will count for more than a blistering start to the season reverting to the mean. We also see this in form being extrapolated into something much more concrete without the right power behind the data.
Case in point:
The voting of the PFA Player of the Year award often reflects this - a hot streak from December-February before the voting period will count for more than a blistering start to the season reverting to the mean. We also see this in form being extrapolated into something much more concrete without the right power behind the data.
Case in point:
Narrative: Miguel Almiron hit a hot streak and Newcastle climbed into 3rd place. The Saudi PIF project has been turbocharged by years.
Reality: They're much improved but still some way off a title challenge. This will no doubt come should investment continue to flow (oh hello LIV golf litigation spilling over....), but clearly, it won't be this year. Newcastle's form in 2023 suggests a Europa League/Conference League spot is more likely. Progress - but not turbocharged. 3 points from the last 15 available.
Case in point:
Case in point:
Narrative: Man Utd are back, swaggering to a Quadruple and swatting away all in their way.
Reality: Rashford in a purple patch, certain toxic Portuguese elements removed and realistically, a reversion to where a squad with that level of talent and expenditure should be - in and around the Top 4 conversation. However, not really in the running for a title race this season.
Reality: Rashford in a purple patch, certain toxic Portuguese elements removed and realistically, a reversion to where a squad with that level of talent and expenditure should be - in and around the Top 4 conversation. However, not really in the running for a title race this season.
Case in point:
Narrative: Poor plucky Spurs cannot compete with the riches around them.
Reality: Spurs have spent significant sums poorly and have a wage bill 15% higher than that of Arsenal and have spent just shy of £400m (net £300m) since 2020 (higher than all but 4 clubs). Liverpool, for comparison have spent £300m (net £180m) in the same period. The talent could have been there - it's just been poorly managed internally. See also Chelsea (on steroids).
So - let's settle down. There's a third of the season still to play and whilst strata have appeared, nothing is immovable at this point.
So, this weekend, Man City swatted aside Newcastle - who did have their chances to be honest. Arsenal beat Bournemouth in a game that will live long in the memory - 96+minutes between first and last goals. It was a day for home wins - Villa beating lacklustre Crystal Palace, Chelsea getting their first win a ages against Leeds, and Southampton climbing off the bottom by beating Leicester. Brighton swatted aside West Ham who will no doubt be managed by someone new in August. Wolves continued their resurgence with a great scissor kick finish from the edge of the area by Adama Traore to climb into the relative safety of midtable and
consign Spurs to a 9th defeat of the season. The race for the last 2 CL places is now very tight.
Of course, this was helped by matters on Sunday. Liverpool had one of those games, hilariously against Man Utd. xG be damned, that was just a collapse. England's cricket team (pre-Bazball) would have been proud. Notts Forest also got a decent draw, coming back from behind twice to keep Everton in the mire.
Final game was in Southwest London where Brentford thrillingly beat Fulham, with hot prospect Manor Solomon (the highest scoring National Trust property in the PL ahead of Dewsbury Hall) socring for a 5th consecutive game. Wouldn't mind that ending now please...
Reality: Spurs have spent significant sums poorly and have a wage bill 15% higher than that of Arsenal and have spent just shy of £400m (net £300m) since 2020 (higher than all but 4 clubs). Liverpool, for comparison have spent £300m (net £180m) in the same period. The talent could have been there - it's just been poorly managed internally. See also Chelsea (on steroids).
So - let's settle down. There's a third of the season still to play and whilst strata have appeared, nothing is immovable at this point.
So, this weekend, Man City swatted aside Newcastle - who did have their chances to be honest. Arsenal beat Bournemouth in a game that will live long in the memory - 96+minutes between first and last goals. It was a day for home wins - Villa beating lacklustre Crystal Palace, Chelsea getting their first win a ages against Leeds, and Southampton climbing off the bottom by beating Leicester. Brighton swatted aside West Ham who will no doubt be managed by someone new in August. Wolves continued their resurgence with a great scissor kick finish from the edge of the area by Adama Traore to climb into the relative safety of midtable and
consign Spurs to a 9th defeat of the season. The race for the last 2 CL places is now very tight.
Of course, this was helped by matters on Sunday. Liverpool had one of those games, hilariously against Man Utd. xG be damned, that was just a collapse. England's cricket team (pre-Bazball) would have been proud. Notts Forest also got a decent draw, coming back from behind twice to keep Everton in the mire.
Final game was in Southwest London where Brentford thrillingly beat Fulham, with hot prospect Manor Solomon (the highest scoring National Trust property in the PL ahead of Dewsbury Hall) socring for a 5th consecutive game. Wouldn't mind that ending now please...
Let's get statty:
This week's predos:
Good luck all!
This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (19/19)
Most disputed prediction: Notts Forest vs Everton (9-5-5 split respectively)
Highest odds: Steven Daniels (8567/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (6563/1)
Average odds: 7565/1
Best predictor: Nick Taylor-Collins (8/10)
Worst predictors: Feneley & Me (4/10)
Average score: 5.79/10
Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Wolves WIN (2/19)
Everyone's results:
Leaderboard (>2/3; 18/26)
Good luck all!
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