Friday, 13 May 2022

S11M37: Will it go to the wire?

 2 full matchdays left. Couple of extra catch up games. And then that's it. Season done. And the chances are, that the powers that be (let's be clear, Sky Sports, the Premier League) will get their final day showdown.

At the top - Liverpool don't play until Wednesday as they're in the FA Cup final. So if Man City win, they'll have a 6 point gap. Liverpool could then only win the title on goal difference, needing to effect a minimum of an 8 goal swing across their fixtures away at Southampton and home to Wolves, whilst Man City face Villa at home on the last day. Unlikely I suppose....but a big win midweek maybe puts that at a 4 goal ask, which is plausible.

Chelsea can guarantee 3rd place with a win. The wobble seems to have wibbled.

The final CL spot will go to North London. 1 point. 2 games. Arsenal are marginally favourites according to the prediction models, but neck and neck with the bookies who smell the momentum shift after last night. They both play against a team scrapping for survival, and a team who's fate is already known. So...will there be another momentum change after this weekend?

Man Utd aren't safe in the EL yet. West Ham could take their place and relegate ten Hag to the ECL for his first season - Wolves also have eyes on sneaking that spot if West Ham fall away.

I'll gloss over everything down to Everton now. With Norwich and Watford down, there's one relegation spot. Leeds currently sit in 18th and can get a maximum of 40 points. Everton have 3 games to play and are on 36 points. A win at home to Brentford, combined with Leeds failing to beat Brighton sees them safe. And so then it's Burnley or Leeds for the final spot - level on points but Burnley having an extra game to play.

So this set of matches could see everything settled, or nothing settled - but I guess most likely, something in between.

Let's get statty:
This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs  Everton (6-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (733/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (569/1)
Average odds: 630/1

Best predictors: Feneley & Me, reunited in victory after 9 years (7/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of you (4/10)
Average score: 5.13/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Chelsea vs Wolves & Liverpool vs Spurs DRAWS (1/16 - Feneley the former, me the latter) 

Everyone's results:



The penultimate leaderboard (>2/3 matchdays; 23/34)

DB5.73
ECI5.36
SD5.33
JA5.33
JD5.28
Lawro5.23
RD5.10
AFM5.05
WSC5.04
NJSPTC5.04
AK4.90
AF4.84
ZD4.67
DSIL4.55
NK4.53
RK4.52

This week's predos:


Good luck everyone!

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