Thursday, 2 February 2023

S12M22: Biannual Resolve

 Every. Single. Time.

Every single time. Twice a year, I end up getting sucked in to the swirling, gurgling abyss that is the Transfer Deadline Day.

I absolutely hate it. I tell myself I'm a more cultured breed of fan. I avoid Talksport like the plague. I spend my pocket money on high-end footballing content, and lean into the tactical, psychological and data fields with a degree of snobbery I usually only reserve for coffee.

I liberally use phrases like "squad building", "strategy" and "profile" and sneer at the YouTube generation with their clips and their Football Manager approach to transfer -spending imaginary money with no thought to the second order effects. God, I use phrases like second order effects.

I know the process. I know how deals are done. The complexities, the moving parts and the fact that the chronology publicly, even in this era of integrated, constant news, does not necessarily correlate with the activity behind closed doors. I know how I should react.

And yet, twice a year, I have ALL the tabs open, and constantly refresh Twitter. I know I'm going to get 63 notifications when anything of note happens. I know "linked with" does not progress to a photo of the player, pen in hand in 15 minutes. But try telling that to my hands as I smash the buttons searching for that hit of dopamine - already diluted by the drip-feeding of tidbits building anticipation whilst fatiguing the adrenaline response. 

So you create narratives, multiple narratives to justify and protect. You craft tweets and blogs and edit, delete and eventually, send nonsense just to feel that your energy has some value (5 addenda if anyones asking on one thread I published). That reptilian brain comes out on top - I am as base as anyone else.

But, when all's said and done, what a January - on and off the pitch. Happy as a Theo at the 2006 World Cup.

Let me focus on the "Big 7" - itself a ridiculous concept.

Arsenal can be happy with 2 solid short/medium term signings and a medium/long term signing, whilst maintaining a lead at the top.

Man City did very little business, losing Cancelo out the blue (bah dum tisch) which may be a master stroke in uniting a disharmonious dressing room, or a major error leaving a team weakened behind him

Newcastle quietly continue to work their strategy. Young British intake, streamlining the squad with Chris Wood already upgraded twice within a year. 

Man United are now, officially, post-Woodward. They are competent off the pitch, with the Ronaldo show shifted to Riyadh decisively, and replaced with a low-profile move who fits the Ten Hag system and does not block the incoming major signing in the summer if rumours are to be believed. Eriksen crocked at the end of the window - no sweat, a solid loan signing to cover in Sabitzer. The Banter Era appears over. Devastating.

Spurs, the OGs at Deadline Day nonsense eventually signed Porro after going round in the traditional Levy circle for the entire window. Of course, it has a loan/obligation format, as is trendy to meet FFP needs. Loan management is not for amateurs though. Just ask Matt Doherty. Asset written off due to what can only be described as incompetence.

Liverpool got off to a good start, signing Gakpo for a good price early on. And that was that. No more ins, no real outs and there's a real sense of instability around the back office until the sale/investment saga is concluded.

Chelsea. Where to even start? They honestly break my head. The plan, one assumes, is urgent overhaul. It's unclear why this was needed given Chelsea were hardly awful last season even with the sanctions. If the January signings had been made in the summer, you can sort of understand - forget price tags, we want young talent to come in. But it's in the context of replacing not last season's team, but replacing expensive, experienced summer signings - Sterling, Koulibaly, Aubameyang and so on. There's a lot of gambling - high price tags for limited experience, long term contracts to make FFP compliance easier, providing other incomes are met - like CL money. And of course, the classic Galactico move of Reverse Mulleting (TM) - Party up front, Nothing at the back.  James is the only real rightback and he's injured. No defenisvely oriented midfielders as Kante and Zakaria are injured and Jorginho was sold. Still no central striker option, although I guess this is tactical. 

Could it work? Sure, eventually. See Man Utd above. Throw enough money at a problem and it'll eventually come good. But it's pretty risky from guys without any real grounding in the industry to date. External perspectives can be excellent. But most innovation ends in failure....

Let's get statty:

Last time out, 17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/17)
Most disputed predicted result: Fulham vs Spurs (5-5-7 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (3595/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (2103/1)
Average odds: 2849/1

Best predictor: AFM (6/10
Worst predictors: Aron Kleiman (2/10
Average score: 4.35/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/17)
Worst predicted result: Leicester vs Brighton DRAW (1/17 - well done AFM)

Everyone's results


And the leaderboard (>2/3 weeks, 15/21)


To this week's predos:



Good luck all!


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