S5M16: Swans deflowered

Howdy all.

Much of the discourse this week has been about how brilliantly unpredictable this season has been. I take great pride in my ever-increasing database of predictions, and I can categorically state that most things are "unpredictable" - within the obvious limits of only a few choices.

For example, this weekend threw up several results that foiled us predictors - but I would argue the only one that was genuinely a surprise was Southampton drawing with a poor Villa side. All the other "shock" results - Stoke beating Man City at home, Newcastle beating Liverpool at home, Man Utd having a goalless draw when West Ham were away, Tony Pulis and Pocchetino presiding over a tight scrappy draw - in the cold light of day, none of these things are particularly ridiculous. Chelsea losing at home to Bournemouth is ridiculous when you compare resources, but Chelsea are in such a rut presently, at least psychologically, that it's not quite so ridiculous. Although....of course, no on is prepared to put money down on it...

You see, my theory (based on absolutely no research whatsoever - I'd rather just sound off on matter psychological) is that we form entrenched biases that are 1) massively retrograde and 2) highly resistant to alteration. We know which teams are good because we have watched football for ages - and whilst this approach is fallible on any given matchday, it explains why you could predict the finishing table in August and be relatively close for 12-15 of the teams. What we don't do well, in my opinion, is react to poor form, or history of a specific fixture (ie does one team often nullify another?). We always think that the team is bound to turn it around - and I think this is a common flaw to us all. Look at how many predict a Man Utd win week-to week in the last few years. Or Chelsea or Liverpool. We think that Arsenal or City are bound to win their games regardless of the schizophrenic nature of their actual play.

I mean - I always assume the away team in the Newcastle vs Sunderland fixture will lose because of the distance travelled - as if they were stuck in traffic on the motorway instead of in a chartered plane for an hour. Some mental models are just hard to shift.

Let's get statty:

M14
This week, 27 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Arsenal WINS (26/27)
Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Watford (10-10-7 split)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels (7263/1)
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (2795/1)
Average odds: 4477/1

Best predictors:  Feneley & David Brickman (6/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com & Aron Kleiman (2/10)
Average score: 4.04/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (26/27)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth vs Everton & Norwich vs Arsenal DRAWS (1/10)

Swing: Grabban's equaliser - 26 annoyed

M15
This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool WIN (28/29)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Spurs (4-9-16 split)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels (22,164/1)
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon (276/1)
Average odds: 4819/1

Best predictor: Feneley & Dagmar (5/10)
Worst predictor: Nick Jones (1/10)
Average score: 3.03/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (26/29)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth & Newcastle WINS (0/29)

Swing: James McClean's equaliser for WBA denied 16 people an extra point

Everybody's results:

To clarify this rather horrible looking graph: blue = M14, red = M15. Pros/Statistical predictors in 2 shades of their usual colours. Missed weeks are blank (i.e. me having no blue line)

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 of game weeks (11/15)

To this week's predictions:

Norwich vs Everton - EVERTON

Crystal Palace vs Southampton - CRYSTAL PALACE

Man City vs Swansea - MAN CITY

Sunderland vs Watford - DRAW

West Ham vs Stoke - STOKE

Bournemouth vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Aston Villa vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL 

Spurs vs Newcastle - SPURS

Leicester vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Odds to follow

Please note how after after all I've written above...I've still gone for all big teams to win. Face. Palm.

Good luck guys, see y'all next week