S12M37: Natural Justice

I want to talk about 2 things this week. Let's get the football out the way first:

At the bottom, Southampton are officially relegated. Leicester are 2 points adrift with games at Newcastle and at home to West Ham to save them - a tough ask. West Ham also host Leeds who are 1 point behind Notts Forest - I'd thought they'd be safe based on West Ham being distracted by their ECl semifinal this week, and then playing a Spurs side on the beach at home in the last game, but they're making it very squeeky bum.

Only a point above them are Everton who play Wolves & Bournemouth - both with nothing to play for, so you'd *think* a fired up side would be able to get at least 3 point from 6 and make it interesting. Because only 2 point above them are Notts Forest, who play Arsenal and Palace, so you'd expect, under normal circumstances, to struggle to pick up many more points.

Except, these are not normal circumstances. Arsenal limp to the Midlands, deflated after all but ending the title race. City's win at 2pm made it a racing cert, and a low-energy performance from Arsenal saw them lose to Brighton, chasing Europa League themselves. Man City should wrap it up mathematically this weekend against Chelsea - historically a potential banana skin, but let's be honest....not really one now.

The CL places still sit with Newcastle and Man Utd, who are both 1 point ahead of Liverpool with a game in hand. Late season revival on Merseyside just not enough to rescue them, and a major rebuild of the midfield (and defence probably) will be underway this summer with a new DoF and the announced departures of Firmino, Keita, Milner & AOC so far.

The only other question of note, is who will get the ECL place next season. It looked like Villa might pip Spurs after beating them last week in a "play off" - but they go to Liverpool next whilst Spurs play Brentford, which segues me nicely to topic 2...

Ivan Toney. What a farce. 

In November 2022, he was charged with 232 betting offences, followed up by 30 additional charges in Dec 2022. 262 charges in total, over a period of 4 years. He admitted to many of these charges in February 2023. The hearing (on all remaining charges after the latter 30 were withdrawn) was delayed until this week, when he was found guilty on all counts and suspended for 8 months effective immediately. There was also the usual pointless fine given.

Since the charges were first made, he has scored 10 goals. 3 of these goals rescued draws and 2 of these goals were winners. 4 goals were scored in games that Brentford won by 2 goals. Only 1 goal was scored in a defeat - and even that was an opening goal.

Toney therefore, has gained Brentford 9 points directly. That could have been the difference between a European place next season and lower-mid table. I don't know how to quantify his indirect impact either. There's also the direct Toney impact on the other teams - 2 extra points for Arsenal, Villa & Brighton would be very well received, and Forest would love that extra point now - Fulham probably don't care to be fair.

He has therefore had a real, material impact on this season, playing with charges over him - charges that he had already admitted to in part. He will now play no further part this season against Spurs & Man City - in games that could, theoretically, have huge impacts in determining European places and the absolute fag end of a title race. There's no doubt that Brentford without Toney are a much less worrying prospect - their second top scorer has 7 - 35% of Toney's total.

The FA could have played this out in two ways that would not have impacted the integrity as dramatically:

1. They could have suspended Toney immediately when he accepted certain charges. After a hearing on the contested charges, his ban would take into account "time served"
2. They could have scheduled a hearing date for the post-season - acknowledging that he has played 95% of this one, with any ban commencing from next season (ie 1st July)

This was a situation entirely within their control - it's not an injury, and it's not an urgent matter. If due process dictates that all charges are read and judged at the same time, then set a date that is appropriate and fair - there's no rush now.

That's not even reflecting that he was given an England cap during this time, or that his sentence is at the lenient end (accepting I don't have the facts of the case) and he will now serve ~1/3 of it during the off season, thus costing him around ~25 Premier League game - or ~10 bets/game. 

Not for the first time with the guardians of the game, I find myself asking "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"

Yes, I've read Dan Brown. Get over it

Let's get statty:

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd & Man City Wins (14-1-0 & 1-0-14 split)
Most disputed prediction: Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth (8-4-3 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 1147/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (535/1)
Average odds: 841/1

Best predictor: 4 of yous (7/10)
Worst predictor: David Silverman (3/10)
Average score: 5.73/10

Best predicted results: Man Utd & Man City WINS (14/15)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (0/15)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 25/36)

To this week's predos:

Good luck all