Wednesday 11 January 2012

Xmas Stats and Matchday 21: Back to the league


Isn't rheumatoid arthritis great!

Well, I don't exactly mean great. Certainly not from my perspective, and definitely not from a sufferer's perspective. However, learning about it for the 93rd time in a week meant that I could use my time to finally sit down and hammer out the stats from the last 5 games.

As my football viewing over Xmas was limited to 23 minutes of Sunderland vs Everton (before I fell asleep), and a few snatched highlights off 101greatgoals, I didn't really feel I was in a position to comment on games, villains etc. It'd have been quite tedious for everyone to have sat through a mega blog post breaking down the stats matchday by matchday. Therefore, I thought I'd synopsise in true F365 style, with my "16 conclusions of the Impossibilitee Xmas"*

  • Do you lot need your mothers to get you up in the mornings? I go away for a few short weeks, and without my nagging, numbers dropped by half!
  • On that note, those of you who only gave one set of predictions to a blog post with 2 sets of fixtures in it....absolutely baffled! How long would it have taken to do the 2nd set! Complaint over
  • All in all, we were rubbish over Xmas. The average score was a smidgen over 4. By contrast, the season average is 4.66. Does this suggest that the fixture congestion throws up crazy results, or are we all just a bit jaded?
  • Boxing Day was the worst matchday of the season to date, with an average score of 3. Even the lunacy of the next set of matches when Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City all lost wasn't as terrible, scoring an average of 3.43.
  • Individually, JT scored the highest over the 6 matches, with an 8 in the 1st week.
  • Lowest scores were Lawro and Sam Ruback with 1.
  • Joe Miller has opened up a decent lead at the top. Thanks for putting the message out whilst I was away.
  • The rest of the table is still very congested. Lots still to play for.
  • It feels a bit Moneyball-y. By this I mean that the numbers disagree with my intuition as to how everyone did. When I was working all this out, I thought some did better than they actually did, and thought others (myself included) did worse.

*If you want to know why this doesn't add up to 16, then you don't read F365. Your loss (most of the time). Great article today about homophobia in football.

Here are the average scores for those who played 2 or more rounds over Xmas. JT, Will O'Doherty and Josh Daniels get gold stars. Sam Ruback get the lump of coal.



The new table is below. Ryan missed 1 week to many, so has dropped out, but he and 1 or 2 others should join next week if they play. To summarise, other than the 3 with the gold stars above, everyone else went down. It's pretty tightly contested however.


To make up for the rush last week, I'm putting the predictions out now in plenty of time.

Blackburn vs Fulham - DRAW
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - NORWICH
Liverpool vs Stoke - STOKE
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 2422/1 with PaddyPower.

The Spurs vs Everton game this week from the opening day is being ignored, as not enough people made predictions back then for me to include it fairly.

Predos in the comments below as per usual - it's a new year and let's get back on track!

Finally, if anyone is/knows a web developer who is footy mad (or otherwise willing to work for beer), please pass them my way. I'm looking to develop this for next season and want to run ideas past someone technical. Any RTs/reccommendations to that effect will be gratefully received, and may result in said beer for you!

Good luck guys!

16 comments:

Dan Davis said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - DRAW
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - VILLA
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - DRAW
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Grabs said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - VILLA
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - DRAW
Liverpool vs Stoke - DRAW
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Feneley said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - BLACKBURN
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - DRAW
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - DRAW
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

£25.61 from a penny on Mark Jarvis

Josh B said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - DRAW
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - VILLA
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - DRAW
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - QPR
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

JT said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - DRAW
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - DRAW
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

£2,152/1 with PaddyPower

Nick said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Josh Daniels said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - SUNDERLAND
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - NORWICH
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

2006.48/1 PADDY POWER

Jonathan said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - DRAW
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - DRAW
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - DRAW
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

2839.33/1 with Paddy Power

Wiggi said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - DRAW
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - DRAW
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR -QPR
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Ryan Wain said...

I'm coming back:

Blackburn vs Fulham - BLACKBURN
Chelsea vs Sunderland - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Everton - DRAW
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - NORWICH
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - DRAW
Swansea vs Arsenal - DRAW
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Odds are 4,880.20/1

Doron said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - DRAW
Liverpool vs Stoke - DRAW
Man Utd vs Bolton - UNITED
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - SWANSEA
Wigan vs Man City - CITEH

10p placed with Paddy Power - odds of 2660.7/1

Sam Ruback said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - BLACKBURN
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - DRAW
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - UNITED
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - CITY


Odds of 2572/1

Yanik said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Everton - DRAW
Spurs vs Wolves - DRAW
WBA vs Norwich - NORWICH
Liverpool vs Stoke - STOKE
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Will O'Doherty said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - VILLA
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - DRAW
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Odds - a quite pathetic 303/1 (William Hill)

Joel Salomon said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - DRAW
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - WBA
Liverpool vs Stoke - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - DRAW
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Joe6725 said...

Blackburn vs Fulham - FULHAM
Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Everton - VILLA
Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS
WBA vs Norwich - NORWICH
Liverpool vs Stoke - STOKE
Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

1821/1 - PP