S8M30: VARy Controversial

There is a significant dichotomy seen this week between the present & the future of football, and it's fair to say that it's potentially schismatic. As such, not going to do the usual cursory mention of each game and actually do a bit of a polemic.

The weekend kicked off with the North London Derby - and whilst I'd usually talk about the football, I'm going to focus on the officiating process. The controversies are well enumerated by now - the fouls, the offside and the penalties. It's not to say Taylor is incompetent  - but that fallibility is inevitable, and as sports science increases the pace of the game, and technology increases the scrutiny during the game for a TV audience, and after for everyone, it de facto changes the game. The fear of error is psychologically crippling - we know this is general, and more so in high stress situations. The elite level is probably protected to this by some degree due to natural resilience and training, but you can never fully control for it.

As seen in other sports, using technology to assist is both inevitable and also invigorating - if done correctly. Does anyone find the use of Hawkeye in tennis or cricket ruins the flow of the game? Does the try get less celebrated in rugby as a result of the TMO review? Not that it's identical, or specifically transferable, but even in football, the Luddite complaints about the introduction of Goal-line technology a few years ago have disappeared as it becomes clear that this is a system that works well and ADDS to the game - no more feelings of having been "cheated". Ultimately, that's the crux of the matter. Football is a low scoring sport, so goals matter. Decisions matter. To return to the NLD - all reffing decisions given correctly and Arsenal leave 1 point behind Spurs with momentum and the easier run in - a 4 point swing that is potentially the difference between CL and EL football next year, and arguably, given the financial implications the trajectories of the 2 clubs in the medium term - would Poch, Eriksen, Alderweireld etc stick around at a club back in the EL with a new stadium debt that went £500m over budget? Lots of hypotheticals there - but correct decisions matter.

However, so does stadium experience and the flow of the game. Football doesn't have the same stop-start nature of other sports. You can't play on and pull the game back for a minor infraction earlier on. For what it's worth, I think the rugby union reviews that can look for foul play several phases back goes too far - if it's not directly impacting on the event, then we're into the realms of the Butterfly Effect and that's too subjective. I've only ever seen one VAR review live and that was also in a NLD, earlier this year in the Carabao Cup, and it was a shambles. You don't want to deflate the organic emotional build up as the game ebbs and flows. So the system needs reviewing, and whilst the principles in practice work (ie natural stoppages only - penalties, red cards, goals etc), the process doesn't.

Let's wander to the CL this week, and to the 90th minute penalty awarded against PSG that led to Man Utd qualifying at the death. It doesn't really matter whether you think it was or wasn't a penalty. It falls squarely into the "seen them given" camp, but there's a strong argument, and one I'm inclined to agree with, that it's a non-intentional handball from a short space where the ball rockets into his arm in a natural position given his body position. As I said though, irrelevant.

The ref gave a corner. Man Utd went over to take their corner. Someone had a word in the refs ear and he trotted off to look at the monitor for a couple of minutes before awarding the penalty. Absolute pandemonium. Fans have no idea what's going on. Imagine being a PSG fan and watching your side eliminated with no idea why. It's not good enough, and it's certainly not good enough for the marginals.

So here's my VAR Charter:

• Used only for game-changing stoppage events - Already the case 
• On-field decision can only be overturned in the case of clear and obvious error - theoretically the case - not in practice as huge subjectivity
• Clarification of how VAR can be instigated - player request? On-pitch official bringing new information? Off-pitch official reviewing footage in real time?
• Communication of decision - Learn from the NFL here. If it's a clear & obvious error, then show the video on the screen. Or have someone with a mike explain "Penalty awarded to Manchester United for Handball" - "Goal ruled out for offside" etc. Rugby also do this well - The decision and reason are communicated with hand signals and the ref/TMO are miked up for TV audience. Tennis and Cricket show the images (although rely on objective rather than subjective review, as the umpires submit their authority temporarily to Hawkeye)
• Timeframe for review - I would state that you can only look at events immediately preceding (say 5 seconds). Football is a complex sport and therefore needs a hard line on when to review

I'd wager that implementation of all of these points would remove much of the fury around VAR and improve the game. Point 4 especially - I'd be all for miking up refs/assistant referees as standard, which would have the knock on effects of 1) reducing dissent and 2) shedding light on how officials work. I'd also be up for routine video review after games and punishing serious infractions regardless of referee's decision and technology to help with offsides (ie GPS in front 2 studs of a boot - immediately gives objective data) - whilst simplifying many rules - offside = offisde (none of this not-interfering with play to go all Clough).

Football is a beautifully simple game but it's also much more than a game these days, and all stakeholders have a right to accuracy and fairness, as well as a purity to letting the players do the talking, rather than the pundits.

Let's get statty:

This week, 17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (17/17)
Most disputed predicted result: Watford vs Leicester (5-5-7 split respectively)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (750/1)
Lowest odds:  Doron Salomon (533/1)
Average odds: 642/1

Best predictor: Joe Abbott (8/10)
Worst predictor: Andrew Feneley (4/10)
Average score: 5.94/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (17/17)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN & Everton vs Liverpool DRAW (2/17)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 20/29)



To this week's predos:

Crystal Palace vs Brighton - CRYSTAL PALACE
Cardiff vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth - DRAW
Leicester vs Fulham - LEICESTER
Newcastle vs Everton - DRAW
Southampton vs Spurs - SPURS
Man City vs Watford - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Burnley - LIVERPOOL
Chelsea vs Wolves - CHELSEA
Arsenal vs Man Utd - DRAW

Good luck guys