S5M5: Wazted

As I may have mentioned once or twice before, international breaks are not helpful when it comes to writing something here. What's already old news when I usually come to reviewing the previous matchday is practically prehistoric when we've have an extended break to beat a motley collection of bakers, farmers and perfectly-manicured financial workers. All the headlines this week have been about Wayne Rooney and his becoming England's all-time leading goalscorer.

Well, I'd hate to be accused of being churlish - so, Wazza, if you're reading (I know you can't play Impossibilitee...no hard feelings) - Congratulations. You can only beat the record that someone else set, and clearly no-one else has been able to do so in nearly half a century.

Of course, a lot of the discourse has been the old staple "it was better in my day" when comparing the previous record holder, and former-Impossibilitee player, Sir Bobby Charlton - yes folks, for those of you who've come in recent times, Sir Bobby once trod these here hallowed blog pages. Once. Did quite well though.

To that end, I thought I'd add a couple of thoughts to the discussion:

The first regards this little infographic I stole from someone on twitter (sorry no attribution as I forgot to note it down)

So, I don't pretend to be an expert on 1960s football, and have no idea as to how good some of these teams were. If you took a yoof of today transitioning from being a Belieber into a football fan, and told them that Hungary used to rule the roost in Europe, they'd probably look at you with the same disbelief as the rest of us have when we first heard the term Belieber. So whilst I know that the USSR and Portugal were alright, and maybe Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, I've got really no idea how good or bad Spain or Sweden were in that time. There are also a lot of games against the home nations, who seemed to be abysmal even then and 5 goals against Luzembourg and 4 against the USA who looked pretty shonky. I think we also run the risk of falling into the Youtube trap of seeing just Bobby C's highlights - the blasters from distance and the driving runs, and a Wazza highlight tape could be just as impressive over the last 12 years. I'm sure some of our more seasoned players may have watched more of Charlton than I have, but everyone has seen more of Wayne Rooney as there's more football on TV - every single touch of his has been televised and scrutinised in a (social) media frenzy that didn't exist in the same way 50 years ago.

The stats column on the right, whilst showing an Impossibilitee level of basicness certainly doesn't show any real difference. It's probably also fair to suggest that the level of football globally has risen with the globalisation of tactics (see Inverting the Pyramid by Jonathan Wilson) and the revolution in fitness.  Therefore it's unlikely that Rooney will have a) been a surprise and b) had the space to operate in that Sir Bobby may have enjoyed.

Finally, winning your countries only World Cup, on home turf with a fairytale story (admittedly not his hat-trick) bestows a certain glow upon your career that persistent quarter-final exits can't quite match.

Plus Sir Bobby is a gent, and Wayne is a rotund fornicator of ladies enjoying their golden years - ya feel me?

The second point I wanted to make occurred to me when I was watching England play San Marino.
I wondered whether I could get a game so looked at the stats:

According to the CIA World Facts database, the male population of San Marino aged 15 - 64 was 8992 at last count. I'll round that to 9000.

Looking at the birth rate, it's been relatively stable (if anything a slight dip), so looking at the 15 - 40 category to account for those realistically available for selection, I'll divide the selection in half - 4500.

Assuming, therefore that 1) Every male between 15 - 40 is able bodied and 2) has any interest in playing football for their country, and ignoring actual talent or physical fitness, I reckon that to play for the national team, you have a 1:180 chance (squad of 25).

That's not too bad - but I reckon I'd still only be the sub keeper, as that's probably less popular.

Critiques: 1) haven't taken into account the Sammarinese diaspora - who knows how many are eligible worldwide and 2) This is clearly nonsense.

For comparison, England 1: 638,846 and Gibraltar 1: 189 (same methodology)

Right enough of that, there was PL football 2 weeks ago and stuff happened. Let's get statty:

In Matchday 4:
28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: Bournemouth vs Leicester (8-10-10 split)

Highest odds: Ryan Wain (7680/1)
Lowest odds: Yo Abbott (757/1)
Average odds: 2787/1

Best predictor: Nick Jones (6/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com (1/10)
Average score: 3.68/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28) - dur. Death, taxes and Man City Home wins folks.
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace & WBA WINS (0/28). Special mention to Andrew Feneley's mum for being the only one to correctly predict West Ham winning at Liverpool for the first time under Queen Elizabeth or something

Swing: Jermain Lens equaliser for Sunderland - 20 people left beating the ground

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks - (3/4 to date)

Proper made up (is that the right Scouse?) for Ryan who storms off the foot of the table. Also worthy of comment is the clustering of employees of the same company around the top of the table. They shall remain unidentified, however, I may have to go full Ruxin on this if this continues.

(FYI - if you've not seen The League, I've just made your day. Puerile, infantile and damned funny)

Right, to this week's predictions:

Everton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Arsenal vs Stoke - ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Man City - MAN CITY
Norwich vs Bournemouth - DRAW
Watford vs Swansea - SWANSEA
WBA vs Southampton - WBA
Man Utd vs Liverpool - MAN UTD
Sunderland vs Spurs - DRAW
Leicester vs Aston Villa - LEICESTER
West Ham vs Newcastle - WEST HAM

Total odds: 3066/1 (Paddypower) - the home wins are coming...I can feel it in my bones...

Good luck guys, and if you haven't yet done the questionnaire on what the best method of delivering the blog to you - look at the tab "Reminders" in the top right corner.

Until next week...