S5M4: Palace & the Pink Glasses

Before the Monday night match, much was made of the anomalous number of home wins this season. Without wanting to blow me own trumpet too much, I'd noticed that over the last 2 weeks, I spoke to Jermain Defoe about the probability of this lasting, versus a regression to the mean, and he told me that for every away win, it made a home win twice as likely the next time around. Of course, I didn't mention it, and now it's easy to be smart after the fact, but I'd never lie to you lovely folk.

Palace were the only team to take advantage of playing at home this weekend, with a late rifled winner. Therefore, I'm going all Home wins for the rest of the season now, in the old red-black roulette thing. Although, it's totally different, mathswise.

The other thing I noticed from this week is that Gooners are an delusional optimistic lot. As you'll have seen from the first week of the season, there are a lot of Arsenal fans who play this game. To a (wo)man this weekend, they all went for an Arsenal win. Nevermind the fact that we've been rubbish in front of goal this season, or that Liverpool have yet to concede. Nevermind that we haven't scored at home in ages, excluding the WBA game, where they really couldn't have cared less. Nah, let's all go Red. The smarter ones - those without the bias - saw 2 flawed teams and plumped for a draw. Well done. Fortunately, Man Utd fans, the next largest contingent don't get to gloat 'cos they suffered the exact same fate. Liverpool fans can gloat, 'cos they're all pessimists anyway, so refused to back their team.

In other news, Bournemouth are the new Blackpool. Cracking good fun, only ruined by Sam Allardyce being a guest on MOTD. Watford have found a cure for insomnia apparently. City are great and Chelsea rode their luck a little - but I think that's their blip over.

Let's get statty:

This week, 28 people played
Most popular prediction: Man Utd WIN (28/28)
Most disputed predictions: Watford vs Southampton & Norwich vs Stoke (7-10-11 split) & Leicester vs Spurs (10-11-7 split)

Highest odds: Ryan Wain (13, 420/1)
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (1214/1 - pipped me by 1)
Average odds: 4471/1

Best predictor: Stan Collymore (6/10)
Worst predictors: Zoe Daniels & David Silverman (2/10)
Average score: 4.04/10

Best predicted result: Palace WIN (25/28)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd vs Newcastle DRAW & Bournemouth WIN (0/28)

Swing: Defoe's equaliser for Sunderland left 24 people cursing

Everybody's results:

And for the first time this season, the Leadeboard! For those new to the game, or those with memories that fail after a few months, the qualification criterion for the leaderboard is having played >2/3 of available weeks (ie this week, you must have played all 3 weeks). This is to ensure that it reflects consistent quality and safeguards against players having a brilliant opening and then never coming back.

So, newbie Nick Jones goes straight to the top with a commanding lead. The next thing to mention is the poor start from the statistical models, and finally, a warm welcome back to Ryan Wain - it's as if you'd never left (please don't leave me again x)

This week's predictions:

Newcastle vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Aston Villa vs Sunderland - SUNDERLAND

Bournemouth vs Leicester - DRAW

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - CHELSEA

Liverpool vs West Ham - LIVERPOOL

Man City vs Watford - MAN CITY

Stoke vs WBA - STOKE

Spurs vs Everton - EVERTON

Southampton vs Norwich - SOUTHAMPTON

Swansea vs Man Utd - SWANSEA

Total odds: 2885/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys, and anyone who hasn't done the quick survey in the "Reminders" tab in the top, please do!