S4M35: Rage Against The Machine (& Tarek)

Let's get straight to it. This was not a good week. I've added to my list of off-season hypotheses to be tested the theory that Christmas & the end of the season have the lowest scores, due to unpredictable scores. The Christmas theory is based around fatigue - the end of the season being due to the disparate "importance" for points in match-ups.

Suffice it to say, that the average score was low this week, but digging into the numbers a little more revealed an interested trend. 2 of the joint worst performers were the most statistical predictors in ECI & FinkTank, suggesting that their long-term, data-driven approach to prediction doesn't allow for the flexibility of my end-of-season theory above. Tarek completed the set - for him, I have no reason. Too many meatballs or something.

Anyway, this is good news for humans everywhere, since when the whole Skynet thing happens as prophesied by Cameron the Wise in 1984, we will have an edge with which we can hold out until help arrives in a DeLorean or something.

Koeman and Poch managed to press each other into parity in the early kick off, before a couple of missed penalties did their best to call time on part of the relegation battle - QPR at least salvaging the draw, whilst Burnley showed that you are not just vulnerable after you score, but also when you should have scored! Leicester gaining karmic retribution for the Watford playoff episode of a couple of years ago.

Hull also managed to win away for only the 2 time this season - Pardew continuing his streaky form as demonstrated at Newcastle for so long.

Streaky Mind Map

Newcastle, of course, were obvious in losing, although they made it seem closer than it was with a late goal. John Carver is going his best to be statistically the worst manager in the history of football. Sunderland got an objectively cracking result with a draw away at Stoke, but in the context of what they need, it's not good enough.

Liverpool's wheels have well and truly come off, losing to Hull after a draw with WBA, whilst LvG has now lost 2 in a row, in the same fixture that did for Moyes last year. You wonder if Moyes would have been given more time if he'd also been aggressive in his press conferences. Man City got a late winner to beat Villa, who should have had a penalty against not-Joe-Hart after he brought down Benteke at 2-2 when through on goal. Amazing how they seem to be stumbling so much given the quality of their squad.

The final weekend game saw Mourinho be predictable, and Arsenal almost as predictable, especially given Everton's win earlier in the day. A reasonably tight game saw both teams happy with a point, followed by a week of squawking in the press about who's actually better.

In my view, it's quite simple. Chelsea are the better team. That's why they are top. They're top because they've been the best team in the country all season, but have been operating at an "efficient" level since January. Whether that's due to injury, other teams figuring them out or Mourinho reverting to his tried and tested tactics, they've earned the right to scrap their way to lifting the trophy, likely this weekend. Every single team would do the same as Chelsea did this weekend, were they in the same position.

That said, it is boring. It's always boring to watch a team scraping it's way through an extended period unless you're a fan of said team when it's excruciating during games and then great after. It's more boring when that team contains phenomenal attacking talent, and have already shown their ability to demolish other sides only a few months ago.

Why the reaction? In my opinion, it's because, deep down, they (Mourinho/Chelsea fans) know it's true. They know that, whilst the record books record the victors, the epic stories of football - the things that all football fans can love on a non-partisan basis, and the stuff that gets young kids hooked is the story - the legend. All the banners in the Shed End will never create that kind of buzz around Mourinho shutting a game down. Ironically....the epic stories (for a neutral) come from the Inter-Mourinho years - the Miss in Moscow and the Di Matteo fairytale in Munich. Maybe I'm wrong - that's just my opinion.

Let's get statty:

This week, 20 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20) - how lucky we all were...Obrigado Fernandinho!

Most disputed result: Burnley vs Leicester (6-6-8 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon (5881/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (1080/1)
Average odds: 4052/1

Best Predictor: Richard Verber (6/1)
Worst predictors: Tarek Najm, ECI & FinkTank
Average score: 3.15/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20)
Worst predicted result: Stoke vs Sunderland DRAW (1/18)

Swing: Chadli's equaliser for Spurs - ruining the afternoon for 8 people.

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks (23/34)

To this week's predos:

Leicester vs Newcastle - LEICESTER
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs QPR - LIVERPOOL
Sunderland vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Stoke - DRAW
West Ham vs Burnley - DRAW
Man Utd vs WBA - MAN UTD
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - CHELSEA
Spurs vs Man City - DRAW
Hull vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Total odds: 1791/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!