S4M29: Printemps arrives

This blog/game/idea came about partly as an unscientific exercise in perception. I'm not a psychologist so there's no real structure to this, and it's very much anecdotal (any psychologists who want to write this up for publication as a pilot study...holler at me...the CV needs pimping) but it's an interesting second line of inquiry that's arisen.

The first, obvious hypothesis was that we are all really knowledgeable about football and therefore should be able to accurately predict results each in a field that we have 'expert' knowledge.

Lawro, and latterly other statistical models were used as 'controls' - either as experts or as subjective models who should take the short term form bias out of the equation. This all sounds a bit sciency - so for those who haven't followed - basically, the idea was to see if we predict better than computers. Sort of. Actually it's harder to express simply.

Regardless, that's all going swimmingly, and I'm looking forward to a football-free summer when I'm going to sit down with all the data from the last 4 years and try and analyse some trends, both personal and group - hopefully there'll be some interesting finds.

The second thing that's arrived - which is much less specific to Impossibilitee - is the perception of time. This is an age old thing, and I'm certainly not looking to channel my inner-Einstein, although on occasion, I too can pull funny faces with terrible hair. Essentially, the last 5 paragraphs have been a long run up to this:

Why are there more 2 week breaks between my blogs now!

Sure it's cup season, but it seems like more than ever. I've been too serious above and my coffee hasn't yet penetrated my thinking space in my head, so I'm going to regress to a footballling mean and blame it on FIFA. The ducks*.

There are 2 matchdays' stats to get through, so let's get statty:

Matchday 27:

This week, 19 people played

Most predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)

Most disputed result: WBA vs Southampton (5-8-6 split)

Highest odds: Me (1601/1)

Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (160/1)

Average odds: 880/1

Best predictor: Euroclub Index, Feneley & Sam Ruback (5/8)

Worst predictor: Tarek (2/8)

Average score: 3.68/8

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)

Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN(0/19)

Goal-swing: Coutinho's winner for Liverpool against Man City - screwed 9 people.

In hindsight, I should have included Spurs vs QPR too. Soz folks.

Everyone's results to follow in a single graph below

Matchday 28:

This week, 16 people played

Most predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)

Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs WBA (5-2-9 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (8527/1)

Lowest odds: Andrew Feneley (1060/1)

Average odds: 3325/1

Best predictor: Fink tank (9/10)

Worst predictor: WhoScored.Com (5/10)

Average score: 6.29/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)

Worst predicted result: Aston Villa WIN(5/16)

Goal-swing: Rodwell's equaliser for Sunderland vs Hull - screwed 10 people. 

Everyone's results for both weeks:

Yeah I forgot ECI again. These people who don't leave their entire web history up for posterity....

The leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 available weeks (19/28)

To this week's predos:

Crystal Palace vs QPR - CRYSTAL PALACE

Arsenal vs West Ham - ARSENAL

Leicester vs Hull - HULL

Sunderland vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA

WBA vs Stoke - DRAW

Burnley vs Man City - MAN CITY

Chelsea vs Southampton - CHELSEA

Everton vs Newcastle - DRAW

Man United vs Spurs - SPURS

Swansea vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Total odds:  5996/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys!

*This is a family blog. Literally.