S4M15: Why the numbers matter

I wrote after updating the last week's blog with my midweek predos "that felt difficult". I meant that it seemed tough to decide which results would occur.

Then PaddyPower spat me out odds of 453/1. Bugger all.

Then everyone else had low odds.

Then 7/10 games had either a 15-0-0 split or a 14-1-0 split (not necessarily in that order).

So the tough week, seemed to be a regression to the mean according to the bookies, and some sort of herd mentality from us. One day, some PhD student studying anthropology or summat clever is gonna stumble across this blog and use it to prove/support something interesting about the word. Maybe there is already a theory - I'm just putting it down to maths trumping instinct.

Couple of good matchdays then all round.

What happened? Sunderland continued their hoodoo over Chelsea - although only partially, so it's more of a hoo. Tight games elsewhere in all matches not involving a club from Manchester, and a humdinger of limited quality between QPR & Leicester.

There was also some awesome goalkeeping on display - De Gea against Stoke, Forster against Arsenal, Green vs Swansea to name a few. City and Chelsea have kept on rolling, as have Man Utd & West Ham under the radar. Hell....even Arsenal have finally gone on a little run...thought I'm sure that'll judder to a halt this weekend. The latest collective line from the press is about plucky Southampton running out of puff, but they did this last year too....and have turned a large profit in the meantime so spare me the tears.

Anyway, double stats week so let's get statty:

M13:

23 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (23/23)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Newcastle (7-9-7 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 6614/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 1218/1
Average odds: 3267/1

Highest score: Yo Abbott (9/10)!
Lowest score: Tarek Najm (2/10)
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea vs Sunderland DRAW (0/23)

M14:

15 people played - sort it out guys! Remember midweek games! and you had reminders!
Most popular predicted results: Man Utd, Chelsea & Everton WINS (15/15)
Most disputed result: WBA vs West Ham (5-5-5 split - people are really confused by West Ham)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 3750/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 414/1
Average odds: 1261/1

Highest score: Josh Daniels 9/10
Lowest score: Jonny Chernick 4/10
Average score: 6.67/10

Best predicted results: Man Utd & Chelsea WINS (15/15)
Worst predicted result: Everton vs Hull DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's results on a lovely graph that's not at all more confusing than if I'd just done 2 separate graphs like normal:

No-one got 0. The 0s mean they didn't play - like Lawro mid-week.

So that's 3 9s in 3 games! Keep it up guys!

To the leaderboard (>2/3 of available weeks = 10/14):

Some major changes - The Feneleys have sunk to the bottom, propping up a less than surprised Doron, a slightly surprised David and a furious me, who's been leapfrogged by Yo off 1 good result. Not quite so much action in the top half - quite a gap from Josh Gaon to Sam Ruback, and from Chernick to Josh Daniels - stratification is occurring!

To this week's predos:

Newcastle vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Hull vs WBA - DRAW

Liverpool vs Sunderland - LIVERPOOL

QPR vs Burnley - QPR

Stoke vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Spurs vs Crystal Palace - DRAW

Man City vs Everton - MAN CITY

West Ham vs Swansea - WEST HAM

Aston Villa vs Leicester - ASTON VILLA

Southampton vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Total odds: 2674/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys