This week has brought a conundrum in my mind. I'm in two minds as to whether to repeat this scenario again in future weeks. A few weeks ago, I decided not to play a round of matches due to only being 6 games. This weekend saw 1 extra game, but a rather low bunch of scores. Obviously, the consequences of being wrong in one match of 7 are more significant that one in 10. Therefore, I think for the future, we need to come up with a solution. The options are as I see it:
1) The full round is predicted and the result counts for whenever the match is rearranged. Obviously, this disadvantages those predictions as you lose the knowledge of form, injuries etc that you make for short-term predictions.
2) The round is played with however many matches are played at that time (Status quo). This means that some weeks count more significantly than others for the calculation of averages.
3)Weeks with a number of games below a threshold are ignored
4) As point one, but delayed games are given a reduced weighting as to be less disadvantageous.
These are just a few ideas - there may be others, and I'd love to hear your thoughts on the best way forward.
To this week's football:
This week, 21 people played
Most Predicted result: Arsena & Everton WINS 21/21
Most Disputed result: Newcastle vs Sunderland (12-6-2 split) (no predo from SC)
Highest odds: Will O'Doherty 192/1
Lowest odds: Me 36/1
Average odds: 103/1
Best predictors: Tarek & Feneley (5/7)
Worst predictor: Hesham (2/7)
Average score: 4/7
Best predicted result: Arsenal & Everton WINS (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Reading vs Liverpool DRAW (1/21 - congrats Feneley)
Everyone's results:
And to the leaderboard, where there was literally no movement whatsoever!
This week's predictions:
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Swansea vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Total odds: 3202/1 (Paddypower)
Good Luck guys
15 comments:
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - DRAW
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Swansea vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - WBA
West Ham vs Wigan - DRAW
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - DRAW
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
We could do it, as for example, fantasy.premierleague.com do it, which is that the definition of a 'week' is sometimes stretched slightly to allow a decent number of games to be predicted. On a week interrupted by some cup action you might only predict 8 games, but the week or two after you'll end up doing 11 or 12, giving you the frisson of excitement that can only really come about when you're asked to predict two Stoke games in a row. You could even just copy their 'weeks' to save you the hassle. Anyhoo, here are my predictions:
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Swansea vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - DRAW
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - STOKE
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Swansea vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - DRAW
Spurs vs Man City - DRAW
Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Fulham vs Arsenal - Arsenal
Norwich vs Reading - Norwich
QPR vs Stoke - Draw
Sunderland vs Everton - Everton
Swansea vs Southampton - Swansea
WBA vs Newcastle - WBA
West Ham vs Wigan - Draw
Spurs vs Man City - Man City (although I hope I'm wrong!)
Liverpool vs Chelsea - Draw
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - Man Utd
Gutted I didn't get a mention as a best predictor despite also getting 5/7 :(
Fulham vs Arsenal - DRAW
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - SUNDERLAND
Swansea vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - WBA
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - DRAW
Liverpool vs Chelsea - DRAW
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
10611/1
Could you define in advance what matches constitute a 'week', so that it only ever includes each team once. Obviously doesn't help that short-term/long-term nuance, but does mean that we're all on a level footing from the beginning of the season.
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - DRAW
Swansea vs Southampton - SWANS
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - DRAW
Liverpool vs Chelsea - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Richard V proposed adopting FantasyFootball's approach, the potential problem with that is that people here could then choose to "tactically" opt out of certain gameweeks thus gaining an unfair advantage. You can't do this on FF (as points are accumulative).
I propose a different approach, which would be a substantial rethink on how scores are calculated, but would bypass the problem at hand. Essentially, if games are treated individually, ie you add up the number of games predicted / predicted correctly and then still present the scores as a ratio (as a factor of 10).
You would have to introduce a simple formula to Excel:
If,
'x' is number of games predicted correctly and,
'T' is number of games predicted and,
'S' is the score then:
S = x*(10/T)
As an example, 380 games are played in total by the end of the season. If I get half of these right, ie 190, my score will be:
190*(10/380)=5 (as expected as 50% of a 10 game matchday is 5).
The problems faced here is potentially that people only opt to predict the games featuring low-odds games but this could be mitigated by forcing participants to predict in all games in any matchday. Similarly, you already have a threshold in place (have to have predicted in 2/3 matchdays to be on the leaderboard) - this could also be adopted.
I hope that was clear enough and that this option could be added to the discussion!
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - DRAW
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - DRAW
Swansea vs Southampton - SWANSEA
WBA vs Newcastle - WBA
West Ham vs Wigan - WIGAN
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
I think number 1 is the best option as it means everyone is in the same boat for all the games
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - DRAW
Swansea vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - SUNDERLAND
Swansea vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - WBA
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Total odds: 2627/1 (Paddypower)
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Swansea vs Southampton - SWANSEA
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Fulham vs Arsenal -ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - DRAW
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Swansea vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
West Ham vs Wigan - DRAW
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - SUNDERLAND
Swansea vs Southampton - SWANSEA
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
2521/1
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - DRAW
Sunderland vs Everton - SUNDERLAND
Swansea vs Southampton - SWANSEA
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
2881/1
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - DRAW
Swansea vs Southampton - SAINTS
WBA vs Newcastle - WBA
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Chelsea - LIVERPOOL
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - DRAW
Total odds: 11369/1 (Paddypower)
Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Norwich vs Reading - NORWICH
QPR vs Stoke - QPR
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Swansea vs Southampton - SWANSEA
WBA vs Newcastle - DRAW
West Ham vs Wigan - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Man City - DRAW
Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Man Utd vs Aston Villa - MAN UTD
Odds: 4156/1
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