A few weeks ago, I discussed the fact that my early-season hypothesis that low average odds equalled higher average scores was not quite as clear-cut as you'd think using normal Bookie law. This week provides further evidence against the hypothesis (or for the null hypothesis, depending on how you look at it) - this week was the 3rd lowest scoring week since records began (i.e., beginning of the season), whilst the average odds were relatively low.
Basically, as JT mentioned in the comments (referring to my potential future career, but it fits here...), none of us should take up a job predicting football scores. However, it's fair to say that the bookies haven't got it down to an exact science either!
A lot of people seem to have decided that draws are a statistically less likely option, and therefore play few of them. I haven't been collecting the data whether that is true or not (probably very easy to find out), but this week, the 4 draws threw a lot of people off, especially those at the Emirates and Old Trafford.
To the stats:
This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (16/16 or 100% concordance)
Most disputed result: Norwich vs QPR (7-5-4 split)
Longest odds: Me, 4193/1
Shortest odds: Joe Miller 726/1
Best predictor: Me & Yanik Joshi (6/10)
Worst predictor: Sam Ruback (2/10) - 2nd week in a row. Doing his bit to shift the crisis headlines off AVB....
Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (16/16)
Worst predicted result: Arsenal vs Fulham DRAW & Wigan WIN (0/16)
Villain of the week: None this week - remember that the villain is for the game and not for general dreadfulness. So whilst the Newcastle penalty was a tad on the generous side, there can't be 1 mistake that had a large enough bearing on this game, as no-one scored highly enough.
Full breakdown below:
To the leaderboard - and a new entry this week. Joel Salomon leaps into 2nd place, behind Joe Miller who maintains his lead. A packed midtable with a 4-way tie, whilst a little movement down in the lower half sees Sam Ruback slip down the table. Ryan missed this week, and therefore the opportunity to move off the bottom. As always, only those who have played in >2/3 of available weeks go on the leaderboard, so thats 9/13 weeks. Next week, we should have at least 1 new entry, but any brand new players from now won't make it onto this season's leaderboard. However, all those semi-regular players still can get onto the leaderboard and see if they can take home the bragging rights.
I know its been a long post today, but I'd just like to end with a mention of the terrible news from Sunday. I obviously have no personal connection to Gary Speed, but he seemed like a great guy on the pitch, and his career speaks for itself. The beautiful, heartfelt plaudits that he has received since the news of his death broke show his standing in the game. I'd just like to add my own condolences to his family and friends, and hope that they find a shred of comfort in the esteem in which Gary was evidently held by everyone who knew him. RIP.
In all of what was said, I think the most poignant message ironically was delivered a few hours before Gary Speed died. Stan Collymore, who I usually have very little truck with (and he has in fact blocked me on twitter for disagreeing with him), posted a series of tweets about his own longstanding battle with depression. One tweet in particular, gave a fantastic insight into his perspective on the illness, and if you haven't yet read it, I really recommend that you do here. He writes:
"So fit and healthy one day,mind,body and soul withering and dying the next.This to me is the most frightening of experiences,and one fellow suffers i'm sure will agree is the "thud" that sets the Depression rolling."
I've had quite a lot of exposure to depression and other mental health problems as a result of my training, and aside from the cliches that "it's a real disease" and "you can't just snap out of it" that I'd previously heard, the striking thing from my perspective was that literally anyone can suffer from a psychiatric disorder. Young or old, rich or poor, whatever ethnicity, religion etc that you like. Robbie Savage gave a tear-filled interview on BBC News where he said "he had everything - 2 gorgeous children, a beautiful wife...". I'm not really sure where I'm going with this, other than to say that any of us have the potential to be affected by depression either directly or through friends/family in our lives, and it's really important for us to try to understand the issues and be as supportive as possible.
The stories of Gary Speed, Robert Enke and all the others who, from our perspective were living the dream, but couldn't see a light at the end of the tunnel should serve some purpose; to leave a legacy that will help others suffering similarly in the future.
On that sombre note, have a great week and I'll see you all back here on Thursday for the new set of fixtures.
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