S4M18 & 19: Merry Christmas, one and all (except you Charlie Austin. And you too, Mrtn Skrtl)

Saturday was a good day for me. I'd ummed and ahhhhed over changing my Southampton WIN prediction on Friday, but decided to go with my gut, after Jonny Lee Miller's advice in Elementary about your gut being right 80% of the time.

He should play Impossibilitee. He'd either be awesome, or it'd rapidly disabuse him of that notion. I digress.

Anyway, I stuck with my original prediction, and when I checked the scores midway through the second half (working again - no Spurs players around to keep me entertained), I was heartened to see that I was on for 6/7 on the Saturday games, and the one thing I was wrong about was Villa leading Man Utd! "BooYa" I said. I'll take the loss of a point to see Utd slip up (the old real world/betting friction). Even when Falcao equalised, I was still pretty content with that.

But the Charlie Austin, a man with a strange face/voice combination - does anyone else feel that they don't exactly match up? - decided to ruin it with (an admittedly good) winner for QPR in the last few minutes. I dropped the 'Ya' from my previous exclamation. I was unimpressed.

Sunday also posed a tricky one. I'd failed to notice Alnwick's injury in Newcastle's 2nd North London paddling of the week - and their subsequent need to play an even rookier rookie in goal. So again, I'd considered boosting Sunderland to at least a draw...but stayed with the advice above. This one didn't pay off. Not even close. So I'm not all that bitter about Adam Johnson, and certainly not bitter enough to include him in the title.

Mrtn Skrtl on the other hand. You bugger. Yep, Liverpool deserved at least a point. But, (further) ruining both my predictions and the smash'n'grab of my hopeless team has meant that I hope Santa brings him coal. I'm too lazy to do any research into Slovakian festive customs, so I'm assuming that's a universally bad thing. Obviously, if the Skrtl household is coal reliant, then I hope he get's something else bad, like 'Arry Redknapp's autobiography (not read, wouldn't use it to wipe my bottom). Chelsea won quite comfortably to stay 3 point clear at Christmas. I was in the uncomfortable position of wanting Stoke to win, and those feelings only became stronger when they let John Terry score. Quite the mental turmoil. I could write a lot more about my struggle here, but I feel that book's already been done.

What? Too soon?

Let's get statty:

This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
Most disputed result: Hull vs Swansea (3-8-8 split....sorry Hull)

Highest odds: Sam Ruback 2812/1
Lowest odds: AFM 612/1

The world has inverted peeps. Get to your apocalypse shelters. Shotgun Rachel Riley.

Average odds: 1737/1

Highest score: Will O'Doherty (8/10)
Lowest score: Feneley, Josh Daniels & David Silverman (4/10)
Average score: 5.68/10

Best predicted result: Man City & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN & Aston Villa vs Man Utd DRAW (1/19 - well done to Will O'Doherty & Sam Ruback respectively)


Everyone's scores:

Leaderboard for those who have played >2/3 of available games (12/17):

We're getting to the point of the season where, unless there are dramatic differentials, we don't see loads of movement in the table. Sam and WhoScored.com making valiant efforts to stay in touch of Josh Gaon, who's looking to have this wrapped up in record time. Feneley's abysmal week sees him on the bottom over Christmas, staring forlornly through window at all the jollyness inside. Extra training for you son, no mince pies until you're off the bottom.

This week's predos:

M18

Chelsea vs West Ham - CHELSEA
Burnley vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Crystal Palace vs Southampton - DRAW
Everton vs Stoke - EVERTON
Leicester vs Spurs - SPURS
Man Utd vs Newcastle - MAN UTD
Sunderland vs Hull - SUNDERLAND
Swansea vs Aston Villa - SWANSEA
WBA vs Man City - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs QPR - ARSENAL

Total Odds: 275/1 (PaddyPower)

M19 (Updated 27/12/14 17:53)

Spurs vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Sunderland - DRAW
Hull vs Leicester - HULL
Man City vs Burnley - MAN CITY
QPR vs Crystal Palace - QPR
Stoke vs WBA - STOKE
West Ham vs Arsenal - DRAW
Newcastle vs Everton - DRAW
Liverpool vs Swansea - DRAW

Total Odds: 7392/1 (PaddyPower)

I'll take this opportunity to which you all well over the festive period/period off work eating lot/watching movies/sleeping/drinking. Also a reminder, that the annual FA Cup money game will be returning in under 2 weeks, so save your pennies now for the £5 entry. Josh Gaon looking to be the first man to do the Impossibilitee League & Cup double.

See y'all before the NYD games. Good luck!

S4M17: Missed opportunities

I don't generally talk too much about my personal life on this blog, other than in quite vague terms 'cos frankly it's not got much to do with football. But last week, this happened:

Yep - the annual footballers' trip to a local children's ward to spread some festive cheer. I work in Spurs/West Ham territory and so my local unit was visited by a smattering of players from Spurs (& Leyton Orient...but...er....yeah).  I'd been quite looking forward to seeing who turned up and maybe surreptitiously stamping on a few toes, but (obviously) the date was kept a secret. So they pitched up last week - some guy, the other chap, Tash Parker from Dream Team and (in my opinion), one of the most punchable face'd players ever - Eriksen. I was on bloody annual leave (against my will) so missed all the fun (and stamping) - but I love how in this picture, the girl seems to be really unamused at who's come and the crappy signed card thing they've given her.

Anyway - I'm well annoyed and will be frantically trying to get a shift at a different North London hospital in the next week to get some of this:

That's how you make the kids smile...

To football - Southampton's miserable run continued at Burnley, Chelsea got back on their little horse against a useless Hull, whilst Man City looked a tad shaky in a narrow win against a Leicester side now looking rooted at the bottom of the table. WBA took Midlands bragging rights whilst Arsenal did some Toon spanking in the late game. Man Utd won comfortably although de Gea made some cracking saves - Balotelli should have scored at least 1, as should Sterling which may have made it interesting. Spurs did their customary last minute winner for a 2-1 win thing, and Everton were quite average against QPR, which is still enough to win 3-1 against a poor team who really should go down too.

Let's get statty:

Last week, 20 people played

Most popular predicted results: Southampton, Chelsea & Man City WINS (19/20)

Most disputed result: WBA vs Aston Villa (7-8-5 split)

Highest odds: AFM (obvs) 92020/1

Highest odds -excluding AFM: Feneley 17924/1

Highest odds excluding the Feneley family who really need to stop drinking before predicting: Steven Daniels 4876/1

Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (obvs) 543/1  

Highest score: Brad Allix (8/10) - making up for his shameful debut

Lowest score: AFM (3/10)

Average score: 5.75/10

Best predicted results: Chelsea & Man City WINS (19/20)

Worst predicted result: Burnley WIN (0/20)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (>2/3 of weeks, or 11/16)

To this week's predos:

Man City vs Crystal Palace - MAN CITY
Aston Villa vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Hull vs Swansea - SWANSEA
QPR vs WBA - DRAW
Southampton vs Everton - SOUTHAMPTON
Spurs vs Burnley - SPURS
West Ham vs Leicester - WEST HAM
Newcastle vs Sunderland - NEWCASTLE
Liverpool vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Stoke vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Total odds: 877/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys - blog to go up Monday night/Tuesday with Boxing Day and 28/29 fixtures

S4M16: I am a very petty, small man

As the song goes, "Is this how it feels to be Tottenham/City/insert rival of choice"...

Saturday was a good day, wasn't it? Sun shining, birds tweeting, that thing thinging, Papiss Cisse scoring....

As an Arsenal fan, I've sort of accepted that we're never* going to win the league again - and really felt that way since that horrific day in Birmingham in 2008 when Eduardo's leg was removed by Martin Taylor. I'd like to see us challenge occasionally....but accept that teams with more money, squad depth and pragmatism will win ahead of us. Like the pretty fantastic Chelsea side of this year.
I'm cool with that - or as cool as someone can be with the acceptance that a hated rival will win stuff.

However, I just don't want anyone to take our Invincible title away, so in addition to the sacred holiday of St Totteringham, I also celebrate El Día de Los Invencibles annually, when the children laugh with mirth and frolic gaily in the streets of Islingtown. This year's festivities were enjoyed with a refreshing Newkie Brown & some Pease pudding in honour of this year's conquistadors. I invite you, friends, to join me in making this celebration part of your own calendar.

In other news, Man City got jammy, QPR are probably going to avoid relegation as a result of winning home games, Man Utd got jammy, West Ham are improbably good and I don't think anyone understands how (Maybe Sam Allardyce is one of those Qui Reverti blokes from BBC's Intruders?)

Villa have continued their post-Keane-ian renaissance and all the other football was dull, with the exception of Stoke-Arsenal which was lovely for the £1 house dwellers and rubbish for all Arsenal fans, except me, who didn't give a fig 'cos I was too busy celebrating El Día de Los Invencibles. Seriously....try it! I also didn't see the game and have so far avoided "highlights" which is the footballing equivalent of having a chat underground with an ostrich, whilst presenting my buttocks to a lion. Read that as you see fit.

*never in the childhood sense of not in the immediate vicinity of time as I can comprehend it

Let's get statty:

This week, 18 people played, including newbie, the Hampshire Hammer, Bradley Allix - welcome mate, hope you stick around!

Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (17/18)
Most disputed result: Southampton vs Man Utd (3-5-10 split)

Highest odds: 35,835/1 Andrew Feneley's Mum (obvs)
Highest odds (excluding AFM): Doron Salomon (obvs) 5847/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (obvs) 1172/1
Average odds: 8352/1 (2855/1 without AFM)

Best predictors: Me & David Silverman (7/10)
Worst predictors: Charlie R & Brad Allix (debut to forget) 2/10
Average score: 4.11/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (17/18)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (0/18 - the classic optimism of the gooner. What are the rest of your excuses?
Special mention for AFM yet again: 2 unique correct predictions so well done (Newcastle win & Liverpool/Sunderland draw)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard, as ever for those who have played >2/3 of available week, (11/15 this week)

Not a great week for most - everyone bar Verber, Silverman and myself batting below their average. Still, I'm not complaining. The Feneleys & Doron are just starting to get cut off from the rest of the mid-table...though still lots of predicting to be done!

To this week's predos:

Burnley vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Chelsea vs Hull - CHELSEA

Crystal Palace vs Stoke - STOKE

Leicester vs Man City - MAN CITY

Sunderland vs West Ham - WEST HAM

WBA vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA

Arsenal vs Newcastle - ARSENAL

Man Utd vs Liverpool - MAN UTD

Swansea vs Spurs - DRAW

Everton vs QPR - EVERTON

Total odds:  1078/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

S4M15: Why the numbers matter

I wrote after updating the last week's blog with my midweek predos "that felt difficult". I meant that it seemed tough to decide which results would occur.

Then PaddyPower spat me out odds of 453/1. Bugger all.

Then everyone else had low odds.

Then 7/10 games had either a 15-0-0 split or a 14-1-0 split (not necessarily in that order).

So the tough week, seemed to be a regression to the mean according to the bookies, and some sort of herd mentality from us. One day, some PhD student studying anthropology or summat clever is gonna stumble across this blog and use it to prove/support something interesting about the word. Maybe there is already a theory - I'm just putting it down to maths trumping instinct.

Couple of good matchdays then all round.

What happened? Sunderland continued their hoodoo over Chelsea - although only partially, so it's more of a hoo. Tight games elsewhere in all matches not involving a club from Manchester, and a humdinger of limited quality between QPR & Leicester.

There was also some awesome goalkeeping on display - De Gea against Stoke, Forster against Arsenal, Green vs Swansea to name a few. City and Chelsea have kept on rolling, as have Man Utd & West Ham under the radar. Hell....even Arsenal have finally gone on a little run...thought I'm sure that'll judder to a halt this weekend. The latest collective line from the press is about plucky Southampton running out of puff, but they did this last year too....and have turned a large profit in the meantime so spare me the tears.

Anyway, double stats week so let's get statty:

M13:

23 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (23/23)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Newcastle (7-9-7 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 6614/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 1218/1
Average odds: 3267/1

Highest score: Yo Abbott (9/10)!
Lowest score: Tarek Najm (2/10)
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea vs Sunderland DRAW (0/23)

M14:

15 people played - sort it out guys! Remember midweek games! and you had reminders!
Most popular predicted results: Man Utd, Chelsea & Everton WINS (15/15)
Most disputed result: WBA vs West Ham (5-5-5 split - people are really confused by West Ham)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 3750/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 414/1
Average odds: 1261/1

Highest score: Josh Daniels 9/10
Lowest score: Jonny Chernick 4/10
Average score: 6.67/10

Best predicted results: Man Utd & Chelsea WINS (15/15)
Worst predicted result: Everton vs Hull DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's results on a lovely graph that's not at all more confusing than if I'd just done 2 separate graphs like normal:

No-one got 0. The 0s mean they didn't play - like Lawro mid-week.

So that's 3 9s in 3 games! Keep it up guys!

To the leaderboard (>2/3 of available weeks = 10/14):

Some major changes - The Feneleys have sunk to the bottom, propping up a less than surprised Doron, a slightly surprised David and a furious me, who's been leapfrogged by Yo off 1 good result. Not quite so much action in the top half - quite a gap from Josh Gaon to Sam Ruback, and from Chernick to Josh Daniels - stratification is occurring!

To this week's predos:

Newcastle vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Hull vs WBA - DRAW

Liverpool vs Sunderland - LIVERPOOL

QPR vs Burnley - QPR

Stoke vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Spurs vs Crystal Palace - DRAW

Man City vs Everton - MAN CITY

West Ham vs Swansea - WEST HAM

Aston Villa vs Leicester - ASTON VILLA

Southampton vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Total odds: 2674/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys

S4M12: Real Ma*******drid

I found meself in Seville last weekend (great city, highly recommended) and thought I'd find a nice bar to settle into on Saturday night to watch the Arsenal vs Man Utd game, followed by Sevilla's trip to the Camp Nou. I was wrong. Do you know how hard it is to find English football when either of the Big 2 in Spain are playing?

Arsenal vs Man Utd was bumped in every single bar except for some faux-Irish sports bar shite for Real Madrid vs Elbar. Seriously. For a fish-in-a-barrel kinda game. I predicted 5-0 to the bar guy with whom I had the longest argument in schoolboy Spanish (Quien el f**k es Elbar? Estamos en Sevilla....no estamos en Madrid) - it was 4-0 and I didn't watch any football. So silver lining, or I'd have had to have been arrested for throwing a mounted bull's head (yeah...that's very popular in matador territory) at the TV screen.

So I haven't got a clue what happened aside from a masochistic 10 minutes in front of MoTD when I got home. On that note, it's interesting (and some what literally incredible) that fewer people thought Man Utd would win away at Arsenal, than thought Crystal Palace would beat Liverpool at home.

So, bit of a cop out this week in terms of the above, but if anyone wants tips for a lovely weekend break in Andalucia, please get in touch.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs Sunderland (7-9-5 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley's Mum (79,546/1)
***Highest odds excluding AFM: Sam Ruback 6905/1 (New Category)***:
Lowest odds: Me 629/1
Average odds: 14, 115/1 (3209//1 excluding AFM)

Best predictor: Sam Ruback (9/10) - really well done - wait to see the Bar Chart later. High odds, and only ruined by his relentless gooner bias.
Worst predictors: Josh Daniels & Feneley 3/10
Average score: 4.9/10

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd WIN (1/21 - well done Doron)

Everyone's results:

Just further emphasises how much Sam stood out.

To the leaderboard (>2/3 or 9/12):

AFM's early season form is starting to look a little like beginner's luck..that's all I'm saying.

To this week's predictions:

WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Burnley vs Aston Villa - BURNLEY

Liverpool vs Stoke - DRAW

Man Utd vs Hull - MAN UTD

QPR vs Leicester - QPR

Swansea vs Crystal Palace - SWANSEA

West Ham vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Sunderland vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Southampton vs Man City - MAN CITY

Spurs vs Everton - DRAW

Total odds: 3200/1 (PaddyPower)

***Update: 01/12/2014 0851 ***

Matches for next midweek:

Burnley vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Leicester vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Man Utd vs Stoke - MAN UTD

Swansea vs QPR - SWANSEA

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa - CRYSTAL PALACE

WBA vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Arsenal vs Southampton - ARSENAL

Chelsea vs Spurs - CHELSEA

Everton vs Hull - EVERTON

Sunderland vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 453/1 (PaddyPower) - that felt pretty tough!

I'll complete mine later, and will try to send a reminder out on Sunday evening - though set your own too!

Good luck guys!

S4M11 (mk 2): I can count, I promise

Thank to the FIFA gods for the international break. Yeah, I mean that. It's given me opportunity to track back through the stats and find out why you're all so moany abut your scores.

In fairness, they were wrong. As Impossibilitee Overlord, the buck stops here. I apologise for any wrong doing. However, in true Blatterian style, I've decided to ignore the clamours for an independent review of the database, and done it myself.

Basically...er....week 5 was counted twice. As week 7. The real week 7 became week 8 and so on. Therefore, this week's post was initially titled "S4M12: somthing funny here", but then I noticed that the League table stated P11 for all teams. So I did my review. And have fixed the problem. Not a £16k watch involved. Although gifts are gratefully received - the more frivolous the better. Get in touch and I'll let you know how to send your bribes offerings signs-of-appreciation-that-have-no-role-in-trying-to-curry-favour.

Anyway - small amounts of blame attached to you all for failing to notice the incorrect counting of weeks. You can't whistle blow if you're not in a greenhouse with stones, as the saying should go.

Anyway, all fixed now so that's good.

The last weekend was too long ago to do a proper review - suffice it to say that Chelsea, Newcastle, Swansea and Burnley were happy and no-one else was. I refuse to allow Man Utd fans to be happy with a squeaky 1-0 win at home to Palace. My ball, my rules.

Let's get statty:

This week, 23 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (23/23)
Most disputed result: Burnley vs Hull (8-6-9 split)

Highest odds*: Josh Daniels 2,542/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 760/1
Average odds*: 1,563/1

* AFM's odds have been discounted due to them being >100x the next highest odds whilst only being 2 results different & those are games that the bookies definitely did not put those kind of odds on. I have presumed this is erroneous.  A further investigation is taking place, and this will be amended should I see proof of those odds being offered by a UK licensed bookmaker and not AFD (who may be a UK licensed bookmaker, but then I want to see his licence too. And working out).

Best predictor: Doron Salomon (6/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of people (3/10)
Average score: 4.09/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: QPR vs Man City DRAW & Stoke WIN (1/23 - congrats to Josh Daniels & Adrian Daniels respectively)

Everyone's scores:

Now for the new, amended leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 of weeks (8/11):

So the first thing to note is how most people's scores have increased. This is due to Week 5 having been a bad week for most. The next, is the drop from Yo Abbott & AFM. Doron has also edged closer to his usual spot. Former champs ECI are slowly clawing back the deficit too. No huge changes elsewhere, although Verbinho has snuck up into 3rd place. Don't think I didn't notice. Hot on his tail are 3 statistical behemoths however. And Sam, Charlie & Jonny.

To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs WBA - CHELSEA
Everton vs West Ham - DRAW
Leicester vs Sunderland - LEICESTER
Man City vs Swansea - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Stoke vs Burnley - STOKE
Arsenal vs Man Utd - ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Hull vs Spurs - SPURS
Aston Villa vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Total odds: 629/1 (PaddyPower)

S4M11: Predictably Unpredictable

Howdy friends,

So - looking at the results from last weekend with a bit of distance, can any of us say we're genuinely surprised at how that panned out? Maybe the Sunderland win was unexpected....but there are a lot of dross teams and really anything could happen - it's hardly like Palace have been flying (or soaring....I'll grab my coat.) Other than that - you'd look at all those results and think...'yep'.

So why did we do predictably average as a group? Are we all so used to the zany that we're now outfoxed by the double-bluff? One day, when I've got more time, I'm going to delve deeper into my statistical treasure chest, accumulated over the last 4 years - draw out some of the interesting patterns, write a book, sell loads (mainly to you guys to give as christmas presents to your secret santas) and buy a desert island. That's basically the only way that I can see to understand why random stuff happens - the desert island is a benefit that is just unavoidable.

Sidetracked somewhat - what else happened this week? Moaninho turned his act towards the Chelsea fans in a superbly ironical experiment to see just what happens when you bite the hand that doesnt really feed you when you're paid by a billionaire. What happens is utter indifference and a half-arsed comedown later on. Also, in happier news, Jonas Gutierrez has been given the all clear from his testicular cancer - which segues nicely onto my little bit of charity begging.

This year, for the first time, I'm Movembering. I've never really thought of it as a worthy challenge before, but read something last year (which I forgot to favourite and have subsequently lost) about why it's actually more difficult than you think - so yeah...now I'm simultaneously hairier and shaving more than ever before. I'm doing it more to raise awareness of Men's Health issues - mainly testicular and prostate cancer & mental health issues - but if you have a few quid sitting in a bank account looking lonely, we'd love your support. You can catch my work team here - http://uk.movember.com/team/1684649

Right, enough of that...let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
The most popular predicted results were Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (21/21)
The most disputed result was Newcastle vs Liverpool (4-7-9 split)

The highest odds were (shocker) Andrew Feneley's Mum (12, 574/1)
The lowest odds were Josh Daniels (genuine shocker) 2002/1
Average odds: 6446/1

Highest scorer: WhoScored.com, Eli Daniels, David Dinkins, Menachem Grunewald, Richard Verber and the super special guest this week - Rachel Riley. I didn't meet her in the flesh, unlikely Sir Bobby, but one day, she'll reply to my barrage of fan mail (6/10)
Lowest scorer: Tarek Najm (2/10)
Average score: 4.67/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN (2/21)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 of weeks....or 8/11

Big gaps from 1-2 and bottom-1 from bottom.

To this week's predos:

Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Burnley vs Hull - HULL
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Leicester - SOUTHAMPTON
West Ham vs Aston Villa - WEST HAM
QPR vs Man City - MAN CITY
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Stoke - SPURS
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - DRAW

Total odds: 1103/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys.