S11M38: Early Finish

I wrote last week that we could be all done.

We of course aren't. I mean, we sort of are - it's highly improbable that City won't win the league, Spurs take 4th and Leeds go down....but stranger things etc

Pressure does funny things though. Mahrez loves a big penalty choke. Arsenal ran out of puff - ironically, so have Chelsea. Lots of limping to the beaches of the world incoming. And as for the relegation battle - I mean Everton really did their best to still be in the mix to go down too

On that note, we saw Billy Sharp headbutted and Patrick Vieira accosted by drunken fans unable to control their elation and who did, and could, have caused harm to staff. In the bin with them and frankly 24 weeks in prison and a 2 year banning order from football (unenforceable in reality) is just not a firm enough deterrent for behaviour like this.

No issues with emotion. Just don't be a ****.

Let's get statty:

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (15/15)
Most disputed prediction: Leeds vs Brighton (4-3-8 split)

Highest/Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (131/1)

Best predictor: Natan Kleiman (6.67/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (2.22.10)
Average score: 3.85/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (14/15)
Worst predicted result: West Ham/Man City DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard (>2/3; 25/36)

I believe, that we have a champion. David Brickman has it wrapped up with a matchweek to spare - unusually but I don't think uniquely...although I'm not going back to check. If he scores a 0, and EuroClubIndex score a 10, by my maths, David still wins by 0.02

So in doing so, he becomes the first human to win a second title, and continues the alternating years with EuroClubIndex to a 4th season! ECI seem to win in alternating years - so early quid on them to take next year's crown!

To this week's predos for the final time!



Good luck guys!

S11M37: Will it go to the wire?

 2 full matchdays left. Couple of extra catch up games. And then that's it. Season done. And the chances are, that the powers that be (let's be clear, Sky Sports, the Premier League) will get their final day showdown.

At the top - Liverpool don't play until Wednesday as they're in the FA Cup final. So if Man City win, they'll have a 6 point gap. Liverpool could then only win the title on goal difference, needing to effect a minimum of an 8 goal swing across their fixtures away at Southampton and home to Wolves, whilst Man City face Villa at home on the last day. Unlikely I suppose....but a big win midweek maybe puts that at a 4 goal ask, which is plausible.

Chelsea can guarantee 3rd place with a win. The wobble seems to have wibbled.

The final CL spot will go to North London. 1 point. 2 games. Arsenal are marginally favourites according to the prediction models, but neck and neck with the bookies who smell the momentum shift after last night. They both play against a team scrapping for survival, and a team who's fate is already known. So...will there be another momentum change after this weekend?

Man Utd aren't safe in the EL yet. West Ham could take their place and relegate ten Hag to the ECL for his first season - Wolves also have eyes on sneaking that spot if West Ham fall away.

I'll gloss over everything down to Everton now. With Norwich and Watford down, there's one relegation spot. Leeds currently sit in 18th and can get a maximum of 40 points. Everton have 3 games to play and are on 36 points. A win at home to Brentford, combined with Leeds failing to beat Brighton sees them safe. And so then it's Burnley or Leeds for the final spot - level on points but Burnley having an extra game to play.

So this set of matches could see everything settled, or nothing settled - but I guess most likely, something in between.

Let's get statty:
This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs  Everton (6-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (733/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (569/1)
Average odds: 630/1

Best predictors: Feneley & Me, reunited in victory after 9 years (7/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of you (4/10)
Average score: 5.13/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Chelsea vs Wolves & Liverpool vs Spurs DRAWS (1/16 - Feneley the former, me the latter) 

Everyone's results:

The penultimate leaderboard (>2/3 matchdays; 23/34)

DB	5.73
ECI	5.36
SD	5.33
JA	5.33
JD	5.28
Lawro	5.23
RD	5.10
AFM	5.05
WSC	5.04
NJSPTC	5.04
AK	4.90
AF	4.84
ZD	4.67
DSIL	4.55
NK	4.53
RK	4.52

This week's predos:


Good luck everyone!

S11M35: Inflection Point

 Well well well.

It's into the merry month of May and all the races are still in play

Title: Man City favourites but literally no room for error
Top 4: Chelsea sliding backwards to possibly make it 2 from 3 - Man Utd just clinging on mathematically but for Spurs & Arsenal, the margin is the same as at the top, with the additional complication of a 6-pointer on Thursday

Relegation: Everton, Leeds & Burnley all hitting some sort of form in recent weeks to try and avoid that last place. I know Watford aren't official...but they're done

So yeah - another big weekend...any slips now could be fatal!

Let's get statty:

This week, 13 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (13/13)
Most disputed prediction: Southampton vs Crystal Palace (8-3-2 split)

Highest odds/Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (421/1)

Best predictor: 4 of yous (7/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (4/10)
Average score: 6/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (13/13)
Worst predicted results: Brighton & Everton WINS (1/13 - well done David Silverman & Nick Taylor-Collins respectively)

Everyone's scores:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 24/34)

This week's predos:


Good luck all

S11M34: Dust x Gravity

 No waffle, Just results. The way it should be....

M31
14 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (13/14)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Wolves (4-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (9295/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (6145/1)
Average odds: 7720/1

Best predictors: Loads of you (5/10)
Worst predictor: Raffi Kleiman (1/10)
Average score: 4.9/10

Best Predicted results: Leicester & Spurs WINS (9/14)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (1/14)

M32 (6 games, scores pro-rated)
14 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (14/14)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Leicester (7-1-6 split)

No odds from anyone

Best predictors: Loads of us (6.67/10)
Worst predictor: ECI, Natan Kleiman, Raffi Kleiman (1.67/10)
Average score: 4.29/10

Best Predicted results: Man Utd WIN (14/14)
Worst predicted result: Southampton WIN (1/14)

M33
11 people played
Most popular predicted results: Newcastle, Man City & Liverpool WINS (10/11)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Wolves (4-5-5 split)

Highest/ Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1346/1)

Best predictors: Feneley (7/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (2/10)
Average score: 4.91/10

Best Predicted results: Newcastle, Man City & Liverpool WINS (10/11)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace vs Leeds DRAW (1/11)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 23/33)

This week's Predos:

Good luck

S11M31: Shake Up

The thing about numbers, right, is that they're both beautiful and terrifying. Numbers are unarguable. but we aren't computers, and human brains are developed to think in terms of narratives, which by definition require arguments. This means you end up with numbers crowbarred into spaces they don't want to be, if you were to anthropomorphasise [sic] them, which of course is a narrative structure rather than a mathematical one. You see my point.

Someone - usually thought to be Disraeli, although of course, with rudimentary research, that apocryphal tale can be put to bed -  mentioned this of course with the maxim "Lies, damn lies & statistics" - we know of countless examples of this from our everyday lives, but it obviously extends to the footballing arena, because...well....why wouldn't it? It's microcosmic of everything else human.

I speak, of course, of Punditry. Talking heads. Ex-pros. Grizzled visages replacing fresh-faced football stickers. Except Alan Hansen who somehow got younger and younger until he retired, like some sort of Caledonian Benjamin Button.

Now Punditry has its place. As above, we are a narrative species. Only the very few of us would prefer to spend halftime and fulltime watching tables of numbers and graphics scroll through the screen like a videogames sans the soundtrack. The art of Punditry is to make sense of the noise and succinctly explain themes and events, offering insight that the layman may not have appreciated. It is not to sit back as if in the clubhouse and jocularly backslap and espouse lazy guff based on prejudicial opinion. In that case, the numbers are used without context, without framing and selectively to further reinforce a false narrative, and because, we are ultimately sheeple (or being kind, busy and disinterested in forensic interrogation), the false narrative becomes the prevailing narrative even though it is built on the foul-smelling exhaust gases from a dinosaur.

So, with that in mind, Wayne Rooney was surprisingly impressive this week. He has got a disturbingly large head these days though. But without measuring it, that's probably narrative, not data.

Let's get statty

This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Chelsea, Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed prediction: Wolves vs Aston Villa (7-6-3 split)

Highest/Lowest Odds: Steven Daniels (569/1)

Best predictors: AFM & Raffi Kleiman (7/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (2/10)
Average odds: 4.88/5

Best predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Brentford, Crystal Palace WINS (0/16)

Everyone's results:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 21/30)

 This week's predos

Good luck everyone!

S11M30: Baton Exchange

Always a joy writing 2 weeks after an International break. I also forgot to screenshot ECI before it all updated so yeah, oops. In fairness, I've been quite busy. Had to do a bit of stuff and then had a few things to sort out, on a background of some bits and bobs so I've been a bit distracted.

Anyway, we're into the final quarter of the season. The home leg. The last dance. The ultimate jubilee? Too soon. Loads of people have been doing their predicotrons - getting on the band wagon late in the season. FOR SHAME. Anyway, for me, it comes down to 2 games - MCI/LFC & TH/AFC - the winner of those games will feel a lot happier about their run in. Chelsea are secure in 3rd. Man Utd probably done for top 4. Relegation - Norwich and Watford are done for me. So it's 1 from Burnley, Everton, Leeds and maybe Brentford. I think I'd prefer Burnley for obviously reasons, and we've got a rubbish recent record at Goodison so they can go too. Although not if Liverpool win the league. Unbearable.

So let's just run through the stats and then get on with the Predos

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (15/15)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Aston Villa (4-6-5 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (3415/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (3415/1)
Average odds: Guess

Best predictors: Loads of you (6/10)
Worst predictor: WSC (3/10)
Average score 5/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (15/15)
Worst predicted results: Watford WIN & Crystal Palace vs Man City DRAW (0/10)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 21/29)

 To this week's predos:

Good luck!

S11M29: *Blinking Emoji*

Well.

No shocks on the pitch but a major quake off it. In 2003, Russian Tanks were a rhetorical flourish, "firing 50 rouble notes" as Abramovich changed the face of the PL and football in general.

in 2022, Russian tanks are anything but rhetorical but Abramovich's time has drawn to an ignominious close. The attempts to protect Chelsea have failed and the sanctions imposed leave an uncertain future. I'm not the guy to dig into this all, but those in the know feel there's a very real risk of administration if the terms of the licence aren't amended. This has a huge impact on everything and frankly, I don't know how I feel about it.

In some way, you lie down with dogs and you get fleas. 20 years of unimaginable success to a Chelsea fan in 2000 is the smooth, this is the rough.

On the other hand, it all seems very far removed from the fighting in Ukraine. I've heard it both ways - that other companies with sanctions have been forced to stop trading so Chelsea are lucky, and conversely, some companies haven't had anywhere near this level on restriction placed on them, so this is unfair.

What also seems unfair, frankly, is this happening 3 months after the takeover of Newcastle by the Saudi "PIF" - which let's be clear, is not an arm's length anything, when the Fit & Proper persons test CLEARLY is a struggle there. So - yeah - I'm all for this, and going further and doing this properly. Otherwise - is it all window dressing?

Conveniently they're playing each other this weekend....

Let's get statty:

This week, 17 people played
Most popular predicted results: Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (16/17)
Most disputed prediction: Aston Villa vs Southampton (6-7-4 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (751/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (951/1)
Average odds: 851/1

Best Predicotr: Aron Kleiman (9/10)
Worst Predictor: Raffi Kleiman (4/10)
Average score: 6.82/10

Best predicted results: Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (16/17)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN (2/17)

Everyone's scores:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 18/27)



To this week's predos:



Good luck all!