S15: Pre-Season Predos Round Up

Very belated this one - didn't quite realise the season was upon us. You'll all know the story here so let's dive straight in:

14 people gave their predictions. Many thanks to them...

Champions

- 8 of us went for Liverpool repeating (ND, GS, JM, SD, RD, ED, AK & JG). That went well...
- Daniel Wigman went for Man City & David Brickman went for Chelsea....ok then
- 5 people correctly predicted Arsenal would win the league - so congrats to JD, HD, OE & DS.

Runners Up

- 5 votes for Arsenal (DW and a don't get your hearts broken ED, RD & SD)
- 1 for Chelsea (delusional JM)
- 3 for Liverpool (HD, DS & OE)
- JD, DB, ND, GS & JG  correctly went for Man City - 2 from 2 for JD

3rd Place

- Let's start with the correct answer. Nobody saw Man Utd finishing 3rd. 
- Now it gets all scrappy
- JG & HD went for Chelsea. Nearly there.
- JM, GS, AK & a very pessimistic ND went for Arsenal
- JD, DW, DB all went for Liverpool. 
- The rest for Man City (OE, RD, SD, DS)

4th Place

- You will all be equally shocked to hear nobody went for Villa.
- DW went for Man Utd
- JM & HD went for Man City
- DB (bitter) and JG (wow, who took the jam out of your donut) went for Arsenal
- Everyone else went for Chelsea (JD, ND, GS, OE, SD, RD, ED, AK)

5th Place

- Finally some new names!
- JD, HD & SD went for Villa. Close enough. 
- DW went for Chelsea
- DS, ND & DB went for Man Utd
- RD, ED & JG went for Newcastle. Oops
- JM, OE & JD went for Spurs. Double oops.
- GS went for Leeds. Gotta respect that optimism.

6th Place

- Ok this is where we go rogue.
- Man Utd had 4 here (JM, HD, RD, ED).
- ND & DW went for Newcastle
- DB, OE & AK went for Villa
- Spurs had 3 worried Gooners (JG, DS & SD) gunning for them. Even the most pessimistic (JG) still thought we'd see St Totteringham this year.
- JD went for Brighton. Not bad
- GS went for Palace. Which technically saw him correct in that they would finish 1 place below Leeds. Just 9 places lower than predicted. 

Relegated

- West Ham were picked by DW, AK & DB.
- Only DB didn't think Burnley were done for.
- Little faith in Wolves to stay up (JD, HD, DW, JM, OE, SD, RD, DS, ED, JG).
- JD changed his mind 30 mins later and swapped out Wolves for Brentford. That was unfortunate. He then had a chat with GS clearly who made trhwn
- Sunderland were the other big pick. Shockers from JD (twice), HD, ND, DB, GS, SD, RD, DS, ED, AK & JG. Sorry Mackems.
- To complete,  ND, DB, JM & OE thought Leeds were going down.

League Cup Winner

- 5 went for the actual winners, Man City (JM, HD, DB, RD, ED). I admittedly did not remember this as I left Wembley in a mood that day.
- JD, ND & OE went for Arsenal. Close
- GS & DW went for Spurs. 
- DS & JG for Liverpool. 
- AK went for Villa. 

FA Cup Winner

- Only JG got this right going for Man City
- DW went for Man Utd
- OE for Liverpool
- 5 people went for Chelsea (HD, JM, RD, DS, ND)
- JD, DB, GS, SD, ED & AK all had Arsenal winning it.

So nobody saw the Community Shield going the way it did then....

Champions League Winner

- SD went for Liverpool. Nope
- AK & JM went for Real Madrid - reasonable
- JG for Bayern and OE for Barcelona were also good shouts
- The other 9 went for Arsenal or PSG. So that's excellent predicting - 5 for PSG ( HD, DW, ND, DB, GS) and 4 for Arsenal (JD, RD, ED & DS). A penalty kick separating the 9.

Europa League Winner

- A dismissive "who cares?" from ED means he can never return to Birmingham
- HD, DB & JM took the correct tactic of "whos the biggest PL club in the competition 'cos they'll win it" and chose Villa
- GS did this took but thought he was in 1980 still so went for Nott(s) Forest
- JD, DW, ND & OE went for Porto
- JG, AK & DS went for Roma
- RD and SD are the real hipsters going for Betis & Lille respectively. Nope.

Europa Conference League Winner

- A dismissive "double who cares?" from ED means he can never return to South London.
- DW, GS, DB, RD, DS, AK & JM took the correct tactic of "whos the biggest PL club in the competition 'cos they'll win it" and chose Palace
- Fiorentina was also popular with JD, HD, ND, OE and JG choosing the Tuscan giants.
- SD really went deep on the obscurity choosing Besiktas. Who were eliminated in the final qualifying round to the mighty Lausanne on 21st August, 1 week after the prediction was made....

First PL Manager Sacked

- Let's start with the very wrong. DB went for Regis Le Bris. He even wrote Régis, putting in the effort. Msr Le Bris has not had the chop yet.
- DW ewent for the Moyesiah who had a lobvely time at Everton
- 2 votes for Keith Andrews which seemed reasonable but was wrong. In fairness, I was only 51% on Andrews and JD switched his voted from Farke. My other 49% was on Scott Parker, who went in April.
- Farke got a lot of heat. JD (initial), HD, ND, JM & OE all thought
- GS & DS went for Vitor Pereira who was the 4th man out, and SD went for Eddie Howe, who I'll classify as the last casualty of last season, although arguably, it's more a this season thing. But as the PL hasn't yet seen a minute of action...
- Ed went for Amorim who you think would have been a shoein but lasted incredibly until the January, by which point Forest had already sacked 3 managers!
- AK got really close with Potter who was 2nd man out but, being him by 2.5 weeks was....
- Nuno at Forest in early September, correctly guessed by JG

Top Scorer

- Easy here. Haaland was chosen by JG, RD, SD, OE and ND.
- Salah by DW, HD & AK. Nope
- Gyokeres by JD (twice), DS & ED. Hmmm
- DB went for Mateta
- JM went for Isak 
- GS went for DCL - which wasn't as mad as it sounds. 

Golden Gloves

- Dave saves. Raya gets the 3peat, as predicted by lots of people. HD, ND, OE, SD, RD, DS, ED, JG. JD also switched to Raya after initially choosing Gyokeres, who, to be fair, didn't concede a goal.
- DW had Trafford who played 4 PL games before losing his place.
- DB went for Sanchez, who I assume he means Diego Sanchez playing for Coquimbo Unido in Chile because he surely didn't mean Chelsea's Roebert Sanchez
- JM went for Alisson who has probably peaked, and AK went for Edison in a great shout from Season 10 of Impossibilittee.
- GS went for Lucas Perri. We might need to have a talk about how you are allowed to pick players who don't play for Leeds, Geoffrey....

Best New Signing

- GS really went all in on Lucas Perri. WhoScored.com rated him 6.3 for his debut season.
- Gyokeres got love from ED (Golden boot remember) and SD - 6.64 for Gyok
- Tijjani Reijnders rocked up, looked great in August, JG loved him, then he tailed off, 6.65, and going to Saudi now
- Benjamin Sesko got the love from DW who was rewarded with a solid 6.76
- Florian Wirtz was RUBBISH says everyone, other than HD and WSC who gave him 6.8
- Jack Grealish rekindled his career (maybe) with a 6.86, foreseen by DB
- Loads of Zubimendi love (JD, OE, RD, DS) - he got 6.87, as did Mbeumo (AK saw that coming - even if nobody can say/spell his name)
- The bets new signing however was Joao Pedro with 7.07 as predicted by JM

Worst New Signing

- OE went for Cunha, who got 7.11 and was actually great. Revenge was taken by the Brazilina in the 90th minute at the Emirates there. Thanks Oli.
- DW thought Xhaka would bomb, and he did EXPLODE with a 6.93.
- ED went for Mbeumo (also can't spell him), AK & SD went for Grealish, ND & DS went for Sesko and GS went for Gyokeres. Scores above.
- DB went for Trafford which feels very valid, but apparently he scored 6.79. Donnarumma scored 6.82 fwiw, so probably a pointless transfer there
- JG went for Igor Jesus who got 6.6
- JD & RD predicted Armando Broja would flop. Fair, 6.19.
- However, the worst performing new signing was Antoni Milambo with 6.12. Great call, HD.

See you next summer to reveal your bad predictions for this year...

S16M1: Once more unto the breach

HELLO FRIENDS

Welcome back all. Hope you're all had a lovely summer. Bit of World Cup for those inclined. Bit of a break for those not. Some Wimbledon, cricket, golf, croquet, trainspotting - whatever floats your boat. We don't shame. Unless you're into hockey. Which, let's be honest, is just football for people who can't control their limbs.

Exciting though. Sweet 16 for us all. I remain amazed that anyone wants to spend their time doing any of this, so thank you all. Might launch a patreon, do some live shows, try and really monetise this. FIRE as they say...

I have had a lovely summer reminiscing. Some of you might remember that Arsenal won the Premier League in May, and whilst is a neutral, PL focused blog, it would be remiss of me not to mention this, to drive you all towards PL focused content, like Arsenal lifting the PL trophy as Champions. Consider this a personal guarantee that you won't regret it. 

What else? The last seasons Predictions blog will follow this week before Friday, but I wanted to get this one out quickly due to the stupidity of Friday Night football kicking the season off. So only a few days.

Like Gianni Infantino, I am all about corruptly lining my own pockets growing the game, so please, share with friends, relatives, colleagues, mortal enemies and anyone else who might want to play. If we get to 100 players a week y the end of the season, I've been informed that there's a special prize. Which *might* be a trip for 2 to Australia...

For those new, or forgetful, let's start with the formalities. If you've played before, skip this paragraph.

If you haven't let me direct you to the Rules tab above. It's pretty simple. 

*Each week, you choose which team you think will win the match, or whether you think it'll be a draw. Think Football Pools style for those of you over 60. 

*Each correct prediction = 1 point. 

*Scores are averaged out over the season in a leaderboard

*Best predictor at the end wins the coveted Impossibilitee trophy. To qualify for the leaderboard, you need to play >2/3 of matchweeks across the season.

*Bylaw - if a matchweek has fewer than 7 games, we ignore it, if it has 7-9 games, it get's pro-rated. 

That's it. That's the game. For those who like a flutter and want to share their 10 match accumulator odds, there's an *optional* field to fill in. DO NOT PUT YOUR NAME HERE. YOU WILL BREAK MY AUTOMATION.

We also have included a bunch of celebrity/tech-led predictors and models - just for fun and to benchmark yourself against. 

Right, think that's that for now. Let's get predicting....

For those inclined for a bit of longer term predicting (NB: I know the window closes later)

Good luck all!

S15 Wrap-Up: After Review

 Another season comes to a close.

I'm genuinely baffled as to how we've got 15 years in. Back when I started, Arsenal hadn't won the premier league for 6 years and now it's been...

Yes, friends, that's right. Whilst this isn't a club specific blog, it very much will have that flavour today. you're going to ask "where's the detailed analysis of Matchday 36?" and I have decided, after review, that I don't have a clue what happened and so can't talk about it. Partly due to me being nocturnal for most of the month of May and partly due to the multiple near death experiences this title race has caused.

Fine, you ask. At least give us Matchday 37 goss. And I will. I cheered Kai Havertz and booed Kyle Walker. I then pretended there was no football on, VERY SUCCESSFULLY. I definitely didn't keep checking my phone to make sure my smartwatch wasn't missing anything. And then when it all got too much and I switched on Sky Sports and watched David Brooks miss two great chances and Haaland score and then Savinho went down the left and I just regretted all the life choices until the whistle apparently went (I heard NOTHING over the sound of blood rushing in my temples) and then I rejoiced in all the life choices I have made/had made for me by Big Steve. So, yes, if you'd like a sober analysis of that matchday, you'll be sorely lacking as I don't even know if any other teams played.

FINE. Then give us the Matchday 38 deep dive we all desire. I shall not. Because again, I didn't really care. Sort of wanted Arsenal to win for the vibes. Obviously wanted the relegation battle to go the way of banter but had no real hope it would. So I just existed for a bit, then waited for ages, then watched a trophy lift that gave me all the feels and off to Islington I went. Where I, a middle aged man - nay a a pillar of society, signing passport applications and stuff - was kettled and assaulted by very oversealous police officers. Which slightly dejammed my donut, until I remembered it had been 22 years and then I got out the big squeezy bottle of jam and refilled the donut and then finished off the bottle of jam, straight down the gullet like a sweet-toothed pelican.

Wonderful stuff. I've done about 0 productive things since then, so congrats on getting a blog at all. NLF, I love you all. 

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Let's get statty:

Matchday 36

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted results: Brighton & Man City WINS (21/21)
Most disputed predicted result: Nott(s) Forest vs Newcastle (5-7-9 split)

Highest odds: Geoffrey Skolnick (4,449/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (1,163/1)
Average odds: 2,985/1

Best predictors: Geoffrey Skolnick & Chris Sutton (7/10)
Worst predictors: EuorClubIndex, Opta & Massey rating (3/10 - one for the models eh?)
Average score: 4.81/10

Best predicted results: Brighton & Man City WINS (21/21)
Worst predicted results: Liverpool vs Chelsea & Sunderland vs Man Utd DRAWS (2/21 - AFM was a VAR review away from being the only one to go West Ham win...)

Matchday 37

This week, 18 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man Utd, Arsenal & Man City WINS (18/18)
Most disputed predicted results: Aston Villa vs Liverpool, Leeds vs Brighton & Newcastle vs West Ham (3-7-8 x2 and 8-7-3 x1)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (10,067/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (851/1)
Average odds: 3,197/1

Best predictors: Geoffrey Skolnick & Hannah Daniels (6/10)
Worst predictors: Joe Abbot, David Brickman & Chris Sutton (2/10)
Average score: 3.72/10

Best predicted results: Man Utd & Arsenal WINS (18/18)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN &, er.....Bournemouth vs Man City DRAW (0/18)

Matchday 38

This week, 20 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (18/20)
Most disputed predicted result: Fulham vs Newcastle & Brighton vs Man Utd (8-5-7 & 7-5-8 split)

Highest odds: Geofrey Skolnick (17,827/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (1,374/1)
Average odds: 9,010/1

Best predictor: Josh Daniels (9/10 - Spurs ruined it. Obvs)
Worst predictors: Chris Sutton, EuroClubIndex, Steven Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 3.9/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (18/20)
Worst predicted result: Aston Villa WIN (0/20)

Everyone's scores:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 26/38)

Congrats Eli Daniels! A second title in 2 years! Give me me back and I'll get it engraved....

Human prize winners are then Joe Abbott & David Brickman. Cash coming your way too!

Non-Leaderboard qualifying players

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That wraps another season. I'm beat.
Having a lovely World Cup off and then will see you all in August for Season 16...

S15M36: Hold on to your hats

 Can I start my saying that I both love everyone and also hate everyone? 

That's the human condition in a nutshell. Simultaneously capable of building complex mechanical glass doors and walking into them. Building and sending a spaceship to the moon('s orbit), but also thinking it's made of delicious cheese. We are walking contradictions capable, nay mandated, of holding contradictory opinions at the same time.

Why do I mention this? Because the BBC have for 2 weekends running written inane articles about footballing rivalry. I don't know who they think their audience is. Last week was about the Celtic/Hearts/Rangers tussle for the title in Scotland (now down to 2) and this week, about the North London feelings around the respective, but intertwined #goals for the rest of the season.

It's really simple and I don't quite understand why it takes thousands of words to say "I want what's best for my team and usually I want everyone else to have bad stuff, but temporarily, I'm willing for them to have good stuff so my lot can also have good stuff, but ideally we'd get the good stuff and they get the bad stuff".

See. Simple. Pithy. You can have that, BBC, for whatever the going rate is for the nonsense you churn out. Not really contradictory at all.

I'm just very touchy. Between the total lack of sleep and the emotional tumult of the last week weeks season  decade two decades, I just want good stuff in my journalism, my team and my sleep. 

Is that too much to ask?

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Let's get statty:

This week, 22 people played
Most popular predicted results: Leeds, Arsenal & Man City WINS (22/22)
Most disputed predicted result: Newcastle vs Brighton (4-10-8 split)



Highest odds: Josh Daniels (10, 514/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (746/1)
Average odds: 4,783/1

Best predictors: Loads of us (6/10)
Worst predictor:Josh Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 4.55/10

Best predicted results: Leeds & Arsenal WINS (22/22)
Worst predicted results: Notts Forest WIN & Everton vs City DRAW (0/22 )

Everyone's score:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 24/35)

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To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S15M35: Ohgoditsmay

Hello. My name is Richard and I'm an addict. I think that's how it's supposed to go in the 12 steps. You recognised there's a problem and then go from there. And my problem has been blog publication. Specifically, the delay to.... So, what can I say. I've fixed myself. This week, I'm taking advantage of opportunity to get this thing written and published in good order, ready for the passive aggressive emojis from (runaway) leader Eli Daniels. Yeah, that's right, I see you. Here's the thing. It's quite busy here at Impossibilitee Towers. You think you're the only game in town. No siree. It's a tough economy and to pay the bills, this guy needs to crank the words all over town. Like a modern day Dickens I am. Little piece here and lil'Jonny gets to eat for another week. Long paper there and Lil' Jonny gets new clothes. So really what I'm saying is you ingrates should cough up some cash for this goodness and my onlyfans PATREON will open in.... No but seriously.

See what I did there. I'm trailing next season already with the return of FFL. For 6 weeks before he retakes the Chelsea job. Tough break for Liam. I'm sure he'll spend some time counting his money before posting something on LinkedIn. Anway, in the PL, what's news? Wolves and Burnley are officially gonzo. Hasta La Blackburn lads. Nott(s) Forest are probably safe after POUNDING Sunderland 5-0 at the Estadio da Luz. Nobody saw that coming. Though in fairness, nobody really saw Fulham winning at Villa either. People did see Arsenal winning with a new number from Nicky J. And Liverpool and Man Utd winning. So really it was back to the relegation battle and a great game of who wants it more as both gameclocks ticked into the 80s, West Ham wanted it more. Then Spurs wanted it equally, then Everton wanted it more than West Ham which meant Spurs went ahead of West Ham who decided that no, THEY wanted it the mostest and Callum Wilson bundled in the late winner causing grown men to blow bubbles at other grown men.

And this, folks, is why I don't usually write the blog at 2am...

S15M34: Shift

I really like this time of year. It gets warmer and the whole place starts blooming. Vibrant energy flows through the world. Except with me, innit.

My scores have cratered. Art mirroring life I guess. The whole limping to the end shtick really takes the jam out of my donut innit

I'm just saying, I'd like some jam.

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Let's get statty:

M32

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (20/21)
Most disputed predicted results: Brentford vs Everton & Crystal Palace vs Newcastle (9-8-4 & 5-6-10 split respectively)

Highest odds: AFM (22,954/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (1,805/1)
Average odds: 6,3451

Best predictor: Josh Daniels & Feneley (7/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of you (4/10)
Average score: 4.9/10

Best predicted resultS: West Ham & Brighton WINS (18/21)
Worst predicted results: Leeds & Bournemouth WINS (0/21)

M33

This week, 20 people played
Most popular predicted result: Leeds WIN (20/20)
Most disputed predicted results: Chelsea vs Man Utd & Everton vs Liverpool (9-6-5 & 9-5-6 splits respectively)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (10,685/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (1,606/1)
Average odds: 6,457/1

Best predictor: Oliver Kay (6/10)
Worst predictor: Chris Sutton (1/10) - shame about the one he got right
Average score: 3.7/10

Best predicted result: Leeds WIN (20/20)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth

WIN (3/20)

Everyone's scores:


Leaderboard (>2/3; 23/33)

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To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S15M32: North Bank Run-in

Log on, think it'll just be a quick post-international/FA Cup break results blog but apparently it's a double. Soz.

Getting excited though eh? Many moons ago, I ran the London Marathon. I did not enjoy it (though you may still sponsor me). The absolute nadir was around miles 17-19 - meandering through the Isle of Dogs/Canary Wharf area was just soul-destroying. You know you've broken the back, but the loss of any visual landmark to focus your mind - or, ya know, the sun - just compounds the physiological screaming known as "the wall" which hit around this time. And then you emerge. The last few miles are a straight shoot BOMBING* it down the bank of the Thames, Big Ben getting bigger and bigger before you hang a right and do the last mile around the King's gaff and cross the line. I cannot describe the lift I got from that stretch. Cramping calves no longer quite so screamy. My black mood (towards everyone and anyone) disappeared and I bounded like a kangaroo** towards the Mall. I bring this up for no reason other than the footballing schedule has no further distractions.

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Let's get statty:

Matchday 30

This week, 18 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (17/18)
Most disputed predicted result: Nott(s) Forest vs Fulham (7-4-7 split respectively)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (5,924/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (411/1)
Average odds: 2,041/1

Best predictor: Co-Pilot (6/10)
Worst predictor: AFM (1/10)
Average score: 3/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (17/18)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle WIN, West Ham vs Man City, Brentford vs Wolves & Liverpool vs Spurs DRAWS (1/18 - Well done WSC, ZD & Co-Pilot x2)

Matchday 31 (8 matches, pro-rated)

This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted result: Fulham vs Burnley WIN (18/19)
Most disputed predicted result: Bournemouth vs Man Utd (4-5-9 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (5,491/1)
Lowest odds: Geoffrey Skolnick (435/1)
Average odds: 1,704/1

Best predictor: Daniel Wigman (6.25/10)
Worst predictors: Me & Oli Kay (1.25/10)
Average score: 3.29/10

Best predicted result: Fulham WIN (18/19) Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN (0/19)

Everyone's score:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 21/31)

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To this week's predos:

Good luck all

* Subjectively

** Seriously. Einstein, relativity, etc etc