S16M10: Winterwear

For the last few months, there's been an Arsenal scarf on my bedroom floor. Folded up, not put away, just there. I don't know why. It's not MY scarf. MY scarf was bought on 19th January, 2011. I'd obviously owned scarves before. But they were horrible. 1990s Junior Gunner urgh. VERY polyester stuff off a market stall. I'd never bought an official club scarf (VERY polyester, but nice polyester. M&S polyester).  But there I was, catching the coach up to Leeds (away) and it was cold and I didn't have a scarf. So I nipped into the club shop and bought MY scarf. Red & white bars. Gold cannon logo. Tassles. Lovely. Bosh.

Now, I'm not always a huge scarf person. Obviously when it's cold I'll wear one. I'm not a psychopath, standing bare-throated in the terraces of N57, but equally, I'm not a summer scarf wearer. Although I love a horizontal scarf display, it's a bit much in 26 degree weather. So I don't really know why it's there. I'm assuming it's courtesy of a child who wore it at some point. Or maybe a wife, though that's as unlikely as a Man City title charge without cheating. 

In any case, there was a scarf, there is a scarf, and now it's got cold, there will remain a scarf. Check back in spring 2027 to find out more about the scarf status

S16M9: All caught up

Let's be honest. 

Nobody is here for a 3 week recap. You want results, graphs and tables, and who am I to get in your way...

One quick word of explanation. It's been a tricky 3 week spell - personally and professionally, with lots of hours at the coalface, travel and some other scheduling challenges, so unfortunately something (many things...) had to give, and this blog was one of them.

Fortunately, it's all ended reasonably well, so, for now, normal service can resume! Thank you for your patience.

---

Let's get statty:

Matchday 6 - wow that feels like a long time ago

This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (25/25)
Most disputed predicted results: Ipswich vs Fulham & Liverpool vs Man City (9-9-7 split respectively).

Highest odds: Feneley (12,483/1)
Lowest odds: Geoffrey Skolnick (1,712/1)
Average odds: 5,678/1

Best predictors: Loads of you (6/10)
Worst predictors: DSIL & DWIG (2/10)
Average score: 4.64/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (25/25)
Worst predicted results: Man Utd vs Spurs DRAW & Coventry WIN (3/25)

Matchday 7

This week, 26 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Arsenal WINS (26/26)
Most disputed predicted result: Brentford vs Liverpool (7-8-11 split)

Highest odds: Feneley (28,741/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (583/1)
Average odds: 9,306/1

Best predictor: Loads of you (8/10)
Worst predictor: DSIL (3/10)
Average score: 6.28/10

Best predicted result: Man City & Arsenal WINS (26/26)
Worst predicted result: Leeds vs Man Utd DRAW (5/26)

Matchday 8

This week, 24 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WINS (24/24)
Most disputed predicted results: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle & Man Utd vs Bournemouth (7-10-7 & 10-7-7 splits respectively)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (40,520/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (1,966/1)
Average odds: 10,308/1

Best predictor: Co-Pilot (7/10)
Worst predictor: SD (1/10)
Average score: 3.50/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (24/24)
Worst predicted result: Spurs WIN (0/24)

Everyone's score:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 6/8)

---

To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S16M6: The surprising shock of the totally expected

After all this time, I've been wondering how best to address the Man City elephant. Or even larger creature. Leviathan. As with the international break recaps, going over old ground feels...redundant. This issue has been talked, written and meme'd to death, and yet...it still feels so seismic and so live. What everyone knew to be true is now official. Barring an unlikely reversal on appeal, City are cheats. Deliberate, systematic, unrepentant cheating over the best part of a decade (proven) and likely longer (unproven). 

But still unpunished. So, there's a shock (maybe at the fact they were found guilty, not that they were cheating...) and a righteousness to the discourse. But no justice. No closure. Our media landscape - of which football media is a part - needs to fill a void. Literally, and legally I believe, to hold a broadcasting licence you cannot have more than a certain amount of dead-time. Print and online media needs content to drive eyeballs to drive revenues. So people talk. They broadcast with no motivation to manage the quality of their output. This saturates the space. The same talking head who'll explain to you why the full back should have tucked in to block off a passing lane is now opining on legal minutiae AND geopolitical deliberations. I for one, did not know Joe Hart was such a polymath. Or Gary Neville. Or Simon Jordan. Or. Or Or. 

Years ago, I read a book called The Undercover Economist (Tim Harford, columnist at the FT I think). It's a popular book explains economics to dumb dumbs like me. The book starts by talking about a cup of coffee. It states the premise that nowadays, the world is so complex that there is not a single person in the world who knows how to make a cup of coffee from scratch. The market relies on people trading their skill and expertise in one area for that of another person in another, and bish bash bosh, you buy your quadruple espresso/CaramelFrappaMatchaLatte. This has influenced what I've looked for in my search for information. I want to understand the process from a lawyer - actually an appropriate lawyer with knoweldge about sports law and CAS and the PL process. Not ProbateLaw123 from Twitter. I want to know about the relationship between Abu Dhabi and the UK (Andy Burnham specifically...). I can take the temperature of what public sentiment is regarding "fair" - but you have to view it through the lens of what's their agenda? What is their driver? City to be liquidated? The PL to be protected? Their own club to benefit somehow. I cannot abide the stupidity that some say (and then quickly walk back) regarding punishments can only be prospective. That football cannot look at how other sports do things and learn (oh hello VAR).

Also, the absolute whataboutery. Pure mudslinging to obscure the issue. The intent/fairness of the rules is irrelevant. That's what you created, signed up to and then deliberately ignored.

Here's my thinking:

Punishment serves two purposes. To deliver consequence for wrong doing and to deter others from repeating. This is pretty foundational stuff.

As such, cheats cannot prosper. A punishment usually needs to be proportionate, but when the offence is sustained, the coverup is ongoing and the remorse level is negative, it needs to be draconian.

This can of course be retrospective AND prospective. In fact, it needs to be.

The baseline is all success in this period is removed. I don't believe in reawarding - that's far too complex and, regardless, trophies won in the court are not the same as trophies won on the pitch (oh hello Afcon). You make like the Tour de France and vacate the titles with a big, mark of Cain asterisk as to why.

Then you punish in the now. The issue is the fruits of the crime continue to flourish. So the options are two in my opinion. Either you uproot the entire tree (ie liquidate the club - de facto with a huge fine that either forces Abu Dhabi to pay massively or, more likely, they default and the club is done) or you impose a multi-year penalty (er....tree surgery?)  to try and restore the status to what it would have been without cheating. Neither are without serious negatives. Destroying Man City (ah la Rangers for example) ruins lives. A multi-year penalty further distorts competition. Equally, the PL are not the EFL, so what happens there? If City are relegated (not expelled), do they go to the Championship?

Then there's the civil claims. How many clubs were affected and suffered material losses as a result? Individuals who's careers took a different arc. They deserve recourse too.

Finally - there's who is liable? Obviously the club will receive a punishment as an entity. What what about the individuals involved? There are actual crimes committed here, let alone the fit & proper directors test. How does this continue to play out? 

The noise is towards settlement. But this strikes me as an act solely to reduce the timeframe around which this drags on. City have thrown everything at the PL for years, without success to date. So it seems like the PL is happy to move slowly but convincingly - which makes me think their desired outcome is a near extinction level event for Man City. This doesn't make me happy...but it maybe feels just.

PL back now so let's get ready to get annoyed about.....

---

Let's get statty:

This week, 24 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (24/24)
Most disputed predicted result: Spurs vs Aston Villa (12-6-6 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (7,927/1)
Lowest odds: Geoffrey Skolnick (539/1)
Average odds: 2,866/1

Best predictors: Loads of you (5/10)
Worst predictors: Steven Daniels & David Brickman (2/10)
Average score: 3.79/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (24/24)
Worst predicted result: Brighton & Coventry WINS (0/24)

Everyone's score:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 4/5)

---

To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S16M5: Last Push No Coat

You know what folks? I quite like this chunking the season thing. In years gone by, we'd be doing a mini-international break, then back to football, then back to international and so on until Xmas and I'd lose any rhythm. This is nice. I like a little month of football, then a month off, and then we go for a solid while. A novel good thing from the powers that be.

Unlike Pro-Ref. God its so boring. But it's just pathetic how bad it is. I get it. Football is a fast paced sport and refereeing is tough. So I'm a big proponent of technology and trying to give humans whatever support possible. But here's the thing...that's only one part of the triangle.

Change Management has 3 pillars. People, Processes & Technology. It's really quite simple. To get sustainable improvement, the body needs to invest in all 3 pillars, sincerely and humbly. They are, under Webb and his predecessors, constitutionally incapable of this - and this, more than anything explains why no progress is made. Let's go through them:

People: Bringing in VAR meant a doubling of the number of officials required to run a game. This necessitated lots of rapid promotion, and clearly, this diluted quality. On top of this, there's no transparency as to what makes a "top" ref - what are the metrics on which they are judged? How can you appraise them without an idea of what good looks like? The Closed Shop mentality - the absolute arrogance exhibited here needs to be routed out. Separate training pathways for Elite refs and Elite VARS. Hire from outside England. 

Processes: I mean, come on. It's just not complicated. Off the top of my head, I can think of 3 occasions where the VAR "forgot" to follow a simple protocol. It's genuinely mindboggling. I joked that they should all read Atul Gawande's The Checklist Manifesto on Sunday. Actually, I'm not joking. There are multiple people and multiple screens in that room. There are no excuses for process not collapsing. Do as we do in healthcare, in aviation, in F1 - pick your analogy and drill, drill and simulate again until those processes are engraved on your heart and brain. Then add in aide memoires, paper proformas, whatever, to make sure that the human error is even further minimised. Unforgiveable.

Technology: Here's the bit where they have invested. Slowly and begrudgingly. But even so, why do we have different options in different competitions? Why do cameras not cover the whole goal line? Set minimum standards for procurement and hold manufacturers accountable - and penalise them where they fall short.

There you go, PGMOL. Saved you a fortune in consultancy fees. You can pay me 5% and stop being crap. Seems like a good deal...

Some football happened, but I've spent long enough on these idiots now, so watch your own highlights, if you haven't already...

---

Let's get statty:

This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool, Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (25/25)
Most disputed predicted result: Bournemouth vs Brentford (7-9-9 split)

Highest odds: Dan Herman (3,450/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (957/1)
Average odds: 1,761/1

Best predictor: The Athletic experts (6/10)
Worst predictor: Dan Herman (1/10)
Average score: 3.64/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (25/25)
Worst predicted results: Chelsea vs Hull & Liverpool vs Fulham DRAWS (0/25)

Everyone's score:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 3/4)

---

To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S16M4: Narrative formation

Good day fine people. Blog on a Tuesday is it? The power of the 21st century. I'm like Eli Whitney, chilling on his porch as his cotton picked itself. Or something. I heard his name this week for the first time in years and it reminded me of school. We used to have an assembly at some point with the head of some section of the school. I'll be honest - it's all a hazy past. The teacher in charge was an Experienced gentleman who may or may not have taught in the time of the Tudors. He had thick black-rimmed glasses and would get up to address up, opening up a notebook he's have in his pocket. Presumably, it had his notes in it. Anyway, for some reason, with relative frequency - enough at least for this to be an anecdote I'm now recounting more than 2 decades later in an entirely unrelated football blog - he'd talk about Eli Whitney and his sodding Cotton Gin. I don't remember what the point of his story was for us, or why I've written a paragraph about this, other than to say, I can get the blog out faster as it takes me less time. Right, football. Friday night saw Liverpool play Ipswich and taught them a lesson. The lesson being our attackers are better than your defenders. A fresh start for a fit Isak? Or another false start. Only time will tell.

A series of draws followed. Bournemouth were pegged back with a late Newcastle equaliser, whilst some stuff happened between Brentford & Sunderland and Brighton & Leeds, but I'm not going to lie, it sounded boring and I didn't watch the highlights. Fulham, who you will all recall I said were going to be rubbish, were rubbish, and lost, dramatically, to Crystal Palace. Not sure about this Sage guy. Firstly, Pierre Sage is a made up name. Secondly, he looks like a bloke who services lifts. Thirdly, I cant really say I know much about him in France (and in fairness, Palace have sold anyone decent in the last few years), but this is rubbish stuff.

Man City both battered Coventry and were slightly fortunate to get 3 points. And Haaland looks silly with short hair. So there. More bore draws between Nott(s) Forest & Spurs and Hull and Villa. I can't get too het up about either, though think Forest can legitimately feel aggrieved with the VAR call that went against them. Even if it turned out to be ultimately right, there's no way the VAR can have been sure enough of the contact with the angles available for him. Bad process.

Sunday saw Everton peg back Man Utd twice, with a late screamer from the Birdcatcher himself. What a way to make your debut. Finally, on Super Sunday, an improved Chelsea still got little bro'd by an Arsenal side revelling in the gold patches on their sleeves. Let me tell you, as much as I enjoyed the win, it's made even tastier by all the salt from the Chelsea fans. Remember folks, seasoning is what you put on food to make it better....

---

Let's get statty:

This week, 24 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (23/24)
Most disputed predicted result: Nott(s) Forest vs Spurs (11-8-5 split)

Highest odds: AFM (6,713/1)
Lowest odds: Geoffrey Skolnick (751/1)
Average odds: 2,378/1

Best predictors: Jospeh Matcha, Joe Abbott & David Graniewitz (7/10)
Worst predictors: David Silverman, Eli Daniels & Hannah Daniels (3/10)
Average score: 5.2/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (23/24)
Worst predicted result: Brighton vs Leeds DRAW (2/24)

Everyone's score:

For the first time this season....the Leaderboard. Remember to qualify, you need to have played >2/3 of available matchweeks, which given we've only done 3 weeks is...3/3.

---

To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S16M3: Reset

It is about this time where I wonder, what's the point of season previews? Why predict the with incomplete information? The illogical nature of misaligning transfer windows and league starts sucks me in every single year. Aside from the fact that it means that whilst 2 weeks of actual football (you know, 5% of the whole season) have been played and the majority of the focus has been on transfers still, it also really messes with my whole chi.

If windows are a must, then you align your window with the start of your season. If that means that different countries finish at different times...then that's the same as now anyway. Get your ducks in order faster, have your processes slicker and also, whilst I'm getting annoyed by this stuff, hard stop. 5pm, 8pm, 10om, midnight, I don't care. But if the contract is not signed and submitted to the FA or whoever ratifies this stuff by the time the buzzer goes off, then tough luck. What is this deal sheet extra time nonsense. You've had months to sort this out. DON'T LEAVE IT TO THE LAST MINUTE LIKE ME DOING MY HOMEWORK.

Transfer Deadline Day, like Friday Night Football can get in the bin.

Whatever, now to focus on the important stuff. City thumped Palace on the aforementioned bad night for football. Liverpool got a late penalty to rescue a draw at home to Forest, whilst city buds, Everton did the same at Bournemouth. On transfers, Bournemouth have brought in 3 and had a big old clear out, and lost Iraola...I think they might be a dark horse for a relegation struggle. Hull won away at Coventry in the first promoted club head to head, and Newcastle won at Spurs for the 3rd consecutive year. Can't smile without you... Chelsea and Brighton went big on the entertainment with a 4-3 home win at the Bridge, Joao Pedro scoring at both ends against his former side. Leeds drew with Brentford and Sunderland got their first points against a Fulham side who are also in the doodoo, Man Utd then thumped Ipswich 5-2, before the weekend was rounded off by a 1-0 away win for PL Champions Arsenal at perennially unhappy hunting ground Villa Park - a club and a stadium literally being rebuilt around them. There's probably a literature term for this....

S16M2: Trolley Dash

Goodlord, I lurve the PL. It is the purest form of the football. I'm not having this nonsense about the lower leagues, the romance of Hackney Marshes or - pulls face - the World Cup being the one every player wants to win. It. Just. Ain't. True. Give me some of that sweet sweet Barclays (yes I know) any day. (I will also accept a big UCL night as special, but there's also a load of shrug there, especially early on. Or an FA Cup final. But that's it.). I got the chance the other week to get my photo with the trophy, bedecked in the most beautiful ribbon colourway the good folks at PLHQ have to offer, and let me tell you, this was no less special than the last time I got involved with a piece of that action when my hair was more red striped than grey streaked. At the risk of going full Sky Sports montage, it really is lovely to be back, watching some proper, meaningful football.

We started on Friday night at the home of the Champions. A sea of golden lions. Rampant. 3-0 win to calmly start that title defence. From lions to Tigers - newly promoted Hull "mauled" Man Utd 2-0. That very odd collective twitching thing they do from the stands now needs to stop or it'll have to be a 100 point deduction. Cannot be having that. It was a bit of a home win bonanza in fact this weekend - only Leeds getting their first win at Forest for generations (before a second in a week, like Nottingham trams), Chelsea winning at Fulham and the late, soft penalty at St James' Park giving Liverpool a point bucked the trend. Late goals were a bit of a thing - Ipswich scored theirs on 90 mins with a lovely jinxy pokey finish from Clarke against his former employers. He did not respect the traditional faux non-celebration and deserves credit for this. That Enciso lad looks a player too. Everton saw off Palace 2-0, which wasn't entirely reflective of the scoreline. Mateta wants out by legal action or by missing so many chances they tear up his contract. The late kick off saw Brentford thumping Spurs 3-0, with a missed penalty to boot. Spurs won't finish 17th this season but my word, can you spend £500m and not really transform a team? Brighton went one better and demolished Villa. 4-0 after 31 minutes, 10 men at 40 minutes and then Huerzler called off the dogs. My biggest question from this game is why a man with a great head of hair last season seemingly spent the last month in Turkey... Finally, and this really should have gone into the late goal section, but I forgot and i'm not editing this further, Man City turned it round late to beat Bournemouth. My latest prediction: Marko Rose gives me Tuchel vibes and will be touchline fighting in no time.