S13M10: Elijah Adebayo is the devil

In 12.5 seasons, we've had 6 perfect scores. Every season, we get probably ~750 attempts at the perfect 10. So it's about 9,000 predicted matchdays.

6 out of 9,000. 0.07% probability. We've had a few near misses over the years, but none as close as this week.

As the injury time board went up at the City Ground, we were 8 minutes away from a perfect week. 7. 6. A long ball was punted forward from Luton player A to Luton forward, Elijah Adebayo. I've been on his wikipedia so you don't have to. Career highlights include loans to Slough, Bognor Regis & Cheltenham. He was at Walsall for 3 years. I'm sure this is a career highlight for him. 

He has 2 players around him. Joe Worrall, defending a lead in injurytime like my small children, embarassed himself, his family and the entire City of Nottingham. He's the captain and went AWOL. Adeboyo cushions on his chest, swivels and smashes it low past the helpless Matt Turner. Point rescued.

Pffffffffffffft. That's the sound of air coming out a balloon.

You've taken this very personally, I hear you say. Correct. Because, dear reader, it was I with the 10 in the bag until this demon stole my crowning achievement. 450 of those predictions are mine. My personal success rate is, well, not 0.07%. But it could have been a sensational 0.2%. That would PROVE* the hypothesis that it's worth doing 10 match accas - you'll win in the long term. But alas, I remain at a 0% success rate. 

So, "Elijah Adebayo" or the Great Satan as I'll now be calling him - I'm coming for you.

Also you Joe Worrall. Also you.

*sort of. Your own money is at risk.

Some other stuff happened to, but who cares any more? What's the point when people like Adebayo are free to roam the earth like the sociopaths that they are.

Liverpool won the Merseyside derby. Wolves got a late winer at Bournemouth. Brentford hammered a very bad Burnley side. City beat Brighton, Newcastle thumped Place (should play Rob Holding). Chelsea fluked their way to a 2-0 lead and then let it slip, and Man Utd beat Sheff Utd. Villa thumped West Ham and Spurs beat Fulham comfortably. You all happy now?

Urgh. Adebayo.

S13M9: Perspective

 Im not going to lie. I really struggled with whether to even write this blog. I've spent precisely 0 time on football in the last 2 weeks. I should have been revelling in Arsenal finally beating Man City - consuming all the content. I'm not even sure I've seen the goal. Everything well and truly put in perspective.

Here's the thing. I love football. I love Arsenal. I couldn't quantify the amount of time I've spent over the years on football. Only a few weeks ago, I nearly collapsed from celebrating Gabi Jesus' late cake-topping cherry against Man United - at that moment, all I felt was ecstasy. To juxtapose one late Brazilian Gabi's winner against a Manchester club against another only weeks later breaks my heart.

So why am I posting? In truth - I don't know. I think because if I stop - I don't know if I'll ever start it up again. Because I've continued through greater personal tragedy than the last 2 weeks. But the truth is - I think I'm doing this because it's what I do - 35ish weeks a year, for 13 years. This isn't me sticking 2 fingers up at terrorism - saying you'll never stop me living my life. It's just numbness on autopilot.

As I'm sure we all do - I'm hoping that this feeling goes - for the right reasons - and I can get back to irreverently writing something nonsensical.

S13M8: I Refuse

Country music has never really been my thing, but Wynn Stewart, may well be the official poster boy of the PGMOL. As lovers of the Bakersfield Sound will attest, Another Day Another Dollar is true in many ways.

Sorry. I meant VAR. Another day, another sodding VAR controversy. I just can't. I'm not going there again. It's BS.

I've spent quite a lot of time in my career working on protocols, human factors and communication. This lot seem to just make it up as they go along and I'm not having it. Bin them all off.

Still, there was other stuff to discuss. Villa. WTF is happening there. Arsenal clicked beautifully on the south coast gaining comfortable wins as did Newcastle and West Ham.

Annoyingly for my prevoiusly committed words, Luton seem determined to get more points than that Derby side. Annoyingly for Pep's dismissive words, that Korean Guy got the winner in a shock loss for Man City. Not a shock loss for Man Utd, who have lost 6 of their last 9 games in all comps. ETH for the first manager to be sacked?

Notts Forest drew with Brentford whilst Chelsea finally got a goal and, then another 60 seconds later to win the Fulham Broadway derby.

Sorry - I can't go into more detail about the Spurs-Liverpool win. 3 points for Spurs, but an absolute farce ruining the game. Though, to be fair, nobody forces Liverpool players to keep getting sent off. 4 in 7 PL games. Filthy.

S13M7: A Quickie

Well what to say?

I'm going to start backwards. Newcastle. 8-0. Away. That was unexpected. As was the away win for Villa at Stamford Bridge - I just can't quite compute how bad Chelsea have been. 35 points from their last 38 games apparently - relegation form.

Brighton and Liverpool picking up max points was less of a surprise...as was the draw in the NLD, as frustrating as it felt from the red side. Certainly the Spurs fans I know are much happier with the result. 

Man Utd arrested their slump with a win at a Burnley side determined to prove us all wrong - matched only in their hopelessness by Luton (who got their first point, proving me wrong last week). Palace & Fulham played out a bore-draw (xG 0.3 vs 0.59) and Man City had a tougher, comfortable win than expected against Notts Forest. Finally - Everton finally won. They'll stay up by default. Awful stuff

S13M6: The Rest is VAR

Someone needs to do some stats.

I don't mean my Key Stage 1 nonsense. I mean proper stats. Like people with beards and star wars and stuff. Because I am *convinced* that there are more late goals than usual, even though *technically* there's the same sort of time to score. I mean, there isn't - the concept of time wasting and time keeping and ball in play is, er, fluid - but there seem to be a lot more goals score after 90+5, than say between 90 & 90+5. Which doesn't make sense. The ball in play number has increased marginally this season - about 3 minutes a game (or a ~6% rise) - I don't believe that super fit, highly drilled athletes suddenly hit a wall before those last few minutes - especially in the 5 sub era.

So, stats boffins. Why?

This week, there were late goals at Wolves (icing), Villa (turnaround) & Spurs (turnaround). Meanwhilst, Luton continued their  quest to finish the season with 0 points, Man Utd doing similar work being dismantled at home to Brighton and Newcastle held off a sprited Brentford. Man City sort of comfortably beat West Ham but made it look harder than it needed to be. Arsenal ended their Goodison hoodoo and Chelsea did their best to ruin my day. I don't know why I'm surprised. That is their raison d'etre.

Then finally, Burnley had a late goal disallowed meaning Forest shared the points. I heard Alistair Campbell moaning about this, but frankly forgot the game was on, so haven't seen it and am bored stiff of VAR controversy and we're in week 5. So, I'll assume he's correct and it was a travesty. Shame for Vinny.

S13M5: Back at the Grind

As everyone knows, my favourite blog to write is the post International Break one. 

Last time out, 3 hat tricks, shock at the Bridge and absolute limbs in North London. There was VAR chat (again). There's talk already of managerial turnover. 

And nah, let's all forget about it to watch some qualifiers for a tournament where all of Europe are invited regardless. Pointless. 

Anyway, I'm just more annoyed by having Evan Ferguson in my Fantasy squad but on my bench. Proper grouchy on that one. 

Anyway, we're back now. For a few weeks until the next unrequited interruption. 

S13M4: Shirt over Hoody

3 games in, 1 to go before the first break in the season. Long time readers will know my disdain for international breaks, and to be honest, international football in general. Why can't we get to that Marxist ideal of no nation states, and just a global workers' paradise where say, nation states can't buy football clubs, or PE vultures can't come in and blow £1bn in 15 months.  I think the only footballing owners (assuming the clubs aren't returned to fan ownership and/or me with indefinite resources) should be self-made ranch owning people with a real interest in sports entertainment. And Tony Bloom because that story is nice. Heartwarming and stuff. 

In fact, having a look at all the owners of PL clubs, only 5 pass the Impossibilitee Fit & Proper Owners Test (IFPOT). I will allow Kroenke (post 2018), Shahid Khan (Wrestling, brilliant), Fenway (Moneyball), Luton as fan owned, Glazers for LOLs. The Nottingham Forest bloke should be allowed but gave Arsenal Covid so he's banned for life. Not great work from the FA.

Anyway, last time out, Chelsea clicked to beat Luton comfortably 3-0. Raheem reincarnated by Argentine parrilla. Spurs comfortably beat Bournemouth. The SouthWestish London derby ended all squares at the AliGTech and early *shock* goals at the Emirates and Old Trafford ended up with 10-man Fulham being elated with their rescued point whilst 10-man Forest ran out of puff against a resurgent Man Utd. Probably given Covid by their owner....

In fact, losing a man seemed so be helpful....more on this in a second.

The late game saw a massive shock with Brighton being dismantled at home by West Ham, although stats suggest a very different game. Didn't watch it. The Sunday saw Man City wobble to a late win against Sheffield United, Villa won leg one of the Claret-Blue TriDerby against Burnley before game of the weekend came at St James Park. Newcastle absolutely flew at Liverpool, with Trent lucky to escape a red card (Tomiyasu says Hi), van Dijk receiving a red card and Gordon putting Newcastle 1-0 up within the first 30 mins. However, in the last 10 minutes, Darwin (finally...thanks FPL gods) got some minutes, scored twice, bingo bango bongo, Liverpool get a massive win and Eddie Howe looks very angry. He's a weird one. Gone from golden boy at Bournemouth 10 years ago to just quite annoying, so happy with that.

Especially if the Saudis then come and take Salah this week. Take Alisson too.