S12: The Long March Starts

 August comes around again with its sunny days and yellow transfer ticker. This season however, is unique. Which I feel I say a lot, and also, I guess, is a tautology by definition, but anyway, it's unique this season for unique reasons. Unique² if you like. 

As you are all aware, this winter sees the not-all-all-corruptly-awarded Summer World Cup being held in Qatar, bastion of Human Rights, and a totally suitable venue which definitely has the requisite infrastructure to support the second largest sporting event on the planet, and definitely isn't sub-contracting their infrastructure needs to *checks notes* Iran. And It's also unique because this will be the first tournament in history where the country, and not just the buildings will be air conditioned. At a time of increased focus on global warming, and data suggesting a 10% increase in energy demands associated purely with air conditioning in urban areas. Yay, can't wait.

(Ed: I will be basically ignoring the World Cup as a personal boycott. However, should Football Come Home, I will not boycott the inevitable Bank Holiday. Call me a hypocrite if you want. 🤷‍♂️)

Anyway, what this means is the the season starts early, goes until the 12th November, when the pre-WC break starts, half the league go off to Qatar, and the other half go off to Dubai on holiday, and then the league resumes with the Boxing Day fixtures. The season will then end a little bit later than usual too, and presumably, there will be a few more midweek fixtures. Which in fairness, we had last season due to the Covid Postponements, but is an absolute pain in the behind for this blog. I'm working on an idea to try and mitigate this without tanking the integrity of the scoring system AND causing major amounts of work for me.

So, welcome back to old friends. New players - check out the "Rules" tab above - but it's a pretty simple concept. Fill in the form, get points for right answers. Free to play, trophy for the winner at the end of the season. Reminder WhatsApp group exists, should you want to join.

So, let's start with some season predictions at large....

Season Predictions

S12M1 Predictions

Good luck everyone! And remember - please share this with anyone who you think might be interested to play this season!

S11: Done

This might be my most delayed blog post yet. The season finished a month ago and there was a fair bit of fatigue. Plus all the exciting stuff my end had happened and I just lost the urge.

Forgot about the pre-season predos to review though. And the trophy awarding. And the shaming. So....here we are.

Probably will skip the match recap though.

So, let's get statty:

14 people played M38

Most popular predicted result: Leicester WIN (14/14)

Most disputed result: Brighton vs West Ham & Burnley vs Newcastle (5-4-5 & 4-5-5 split respectively)

Highest/Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (557/1 )

Best predictors: Joe Abbott & Nick Taylor-Collins (9/10)

Worst predictors: AFM & Zoe Daniels (5/10)

Average score: 7/10

Best predicted result: Leicester WIN (14/14)

Worst predicted result: Brighton & Crystal Palace WINS (5/14)

Everyone's scores:

To the final leaderboard of the season:

David Brickman takes his title back and retains the trophy for a 3rd year. Sucks to be a homeless computer model, ECI..... who finished a long way back, level with Joe Abbott. Another David brings up the rear...who if he'd played a bit more might have found the 0.02 to overtake Raffi Kleiman.

Congrats DB!

The others who played who didn't play enough have their scores below.

Right, let's review the pre-season predos:

Winner: City - Nick, Steve, Silverman, Me & Raffi all got it. Nathan, Joe Abbott and tribalists Machta & Gaj went for Chelsea. The equally partisan Josh D went for Arsenal and David Brickman loses his trophy because he went for Man Utd.

2nd: Weirdly, Brickman is the only one who went for Liverpool. Abbott & Nathan went for Chelsea, Raffi for Man United and everyone else for Man City.

3rd & 4th: Raffi went Chelsea in 3rd. Nobody else did. Brickman & Josh went for Man City, Joe Abbott, Machat & Gaj went for Liverpool and everyone else for Man Utd. Nobody went for Spurs in 4th. Liverpool, Chelsea & Man Utd made up the spread.

5th: Leicester were popular - Nathan, Silverman, Machta, Gaj & Abbott were all seduced by Brendan. Brickman went for Spurs for his second solo. Nick, Steve & me all got a bit excited and went for Mik Magic whilst Josh went for Liverpool. Close.

6th: A vote each for Villa (Josh) and West Ham (Gaj), along with Spurs getting votes from Machta, Nick & Steve. I thought it'd be Leicester, as did Raffi. Joe Abbott, Brickman, Nathan & Silverman all got it correct with Arsenal.

As a group, we went for

1. Man City
2. Chelsea
3. Man Utd
4. Liverpool
5. Leicester
6. Arsenal (by 0.02 from Spurs)

Relegation

David Silverman - TekABoo. Burnley, Watford & Norwich like a boss. In fairness, literally everyone got Norwich. Nathan, Steven, Joe Abbott & Josh all also went for Watford. Machta the only other one to get Burnley. Surprises - a few for Brentford & Wolves, plenty for Newcastle which was a good shout until Saudi Arabia got involved.

Golden Gloves
7/11 went for Alisson or Ederson. So well done - 20 clean sheets each. Brickman went for Pope - brave. Josh went for Leno - 1 clean sheet in 4 games. 2 votes for Mendy.

Golden Boot

Josh Daniels & David Brickman went for Salah. Nobody went for Son. 4 votes for Kane (17 goals) & Lukaku (8 goals). 1 vote, from Steve for Werner (4 goals).

League Cup

Nobody went for Liverpool. We really didn't fancy them this season....City & United made up most of the votes, 2 for Chelsea & 1 for Arsenal.

FA Cup
David Brickman went for Spurs. Everyone else went for Arsenal or Chelsea, which is not unreasonable given the recent history. But nope, nobody again.

Champions League

Joe Abbott went for Bayern. Everyone else went for PSG. Nobody thought about La Real

Europa League

Midtylland

A Spanish club

Leicester

Sevilla

Lyon

Napoli

Napoli

Leicester

Man United

Leicester

N/A

Better not talk about any of that. Nobody

Best New Signing:

By the WhoScored.com numbers, Jack Grealish (7.17, David Brickman). But based on transfer fee, context etc, Ben White in 2nd place (6.88, Nathan Daniels) is probably a fair shout too.

Other: Lukaku, Sancho, Lokonga, Ashley Young and Boubakar Soumare. Er, yep.

Worst New Signing:

Clear winner here was Bryan Gil (6.15, Joe Abbott) who was packed off in disgrace to Valencia in January. Somehow I think he won that one. Lukaku, White & Grealish all made an appearance again, as did Kane (who presumably Steve thought was going to sign for City), Romero and Ramsdale who were also pretty good signings. Josh King and Andros Townsend, who is 30(!!!!) made up the rest of the pool.

First Manager sacked

Finally, to the sack race, where 4 people correctly picked Xisco to go first (Nathan, Brickman, Steve & Silverman). Nick, Joe Abbott & I went for Steve Bruce who went 2nd, whilst Gaj went for "Norwich" - Daniel Farke went 4th. Raffi went for Bielsa who was the penultimate of the 10 sackings (from 9 clubs....big congrats to Silverman who actually said "Watford, at least twice"). Hassenhutl wasn't sacked - Josh and Arteta is the best manager in the league, @JosephMachta you bitter little man.

And on that note - happy summer, see you all in August.

S11M38: Early Finish

I wrote last week that we could be all done.

We of course aren't. I mean, we sort of are - it's highly improbable that City won't win the league, Spurs take 4th and Leeds go down....but stranger things etc

Pressure does funny things though. Mahrez loves a big penalty choke. Arsenal ran out of puff - ironically, so have Chelsea. Lots of limping to the beaches of the world incoming. And as for the relegation battle - I mean Everton really did their best to still be in the mix to go down too

On that note, we saw Billy Sharp headbutted and Patrick Vieira accosted by drunken fans unable to control their elation and who did, and could, have caused harm to staff. In the bin with them and frankly 24 weeks in prison and a 2 year banning order from football (unenforceable in reality) is just not a firm enough deterrent for behaviour like this.

No issues with emotion. Just don't be a ****.

Let's get statty:

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (15/15)
Most disputed prediction: Leeds vs Brighton (4-3-8 split)

Highest/Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (131/1)

Best predictor: Natan Kleiman (6.67/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (2.22.10)
Average score: 3.85/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (14/15)
Worst predicted result: West Ham/Man City DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard (>2/3; 25/36)

I believe, that we have a champion. David Brickman has it wrapped up with a matchweek to spare - unusually but I don't think uniquely...although I'm not going back to check. If he scores a 0, and EuroClubIndex score a 10, by my maths, David still wins by 0.02

So in doing so, he becomes the first human to win a second title, and continues the alternating years with EuroClubIndex to a 4th season! ECI seem to win in alternating years - so early quid on them to take next year's crown!

To this week's predos for the final time!



Good luck guys!

S11M37: Will it go to the wire?

 2 full matchdays left. Couple of extra catch up games. And then that's it. Season done. And the chances are, that the powers that be (let's be clear, Sky Sports, the Premier League) will get their final day showdown.

At the top - Liverpool don't play until Wednesday as they're in the FA Cup final. So if Man City win, they'll have a 6 point gap. Liverpool could then only win the title on goal difference, needing to effect a minimum of an 8 goal swing across their fixtures away at Southampton and home to Wolves, whilst Man City face Villa at home on the last day. Unlikely I suppose....but a big win midweek maybe puts that at a 4 goal ask, which is plausible.

Chelsea can guarantee 3rd place with a win. The wobble seems to have wibbled.

The final CL spot will go to North London. 1 point. 2 games. Arsenal are marginally favourites according to the prediction models, but neck and neck with the bookies who smell the momentum shift after last night. They both play against a team scrapping for survival, and a team who's fate is already known. So...will there be another momentum change after this weekend?

Man Utd aren't safe in the EL yet. West Ham could take their place and relegate ten Hag to the ECL for his first season - Wolves also have eyes on sneaking that spot if West Ham fall away.

I'll gloss over everything down to Everton now. With Norwich and Watford down, there's one relegation spot. Leeds currently sit in 18th and can get a maximum of 40 points. Everton have 3 games to play and are on 36 points. A win at home to Brentford, combined with Leeds failing to beat Brighton sees them safe. And so then it's Burnley or Leeds for the final spot - level on points but Burnley having an extra game to play.

So this set of matches could see everything settled, or nothing settled - but I guess most likely, something in between.

Let's get statty:
This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs  Everton (6-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (733/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (569/1)
Average odds: 630/1

Best predictors: Feneley & Me, reunited in victory after 9 years (7/10)
Worst predictor: Loads of you (4/10)
Average score: 5.13/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Chelsea vs Wolves & Liverpool vs Spurs DRAWS (1/16 - Feneley the former, me the latter) 

Everyone's results:

The penultimate leaderboard (>2/3 matchdays; 23/34)

DB	5.73
ECI	5.36
SD	5.33
JA	5.33
JD	5.28
Lawro	5.23
RD	5.10
AFM	5.05
WSC	5.04
NJSPTC	5.04
AK	4.90
AF	4.84
ZD	4.67
DSIL	4.55
NK	4.53
RK	4.52

This week's predos:


Good luck everyone!

S11M35: Inflection Point

 Well well well.

It's into the merry month of May and all the races are still in play

Title: Man City favourites but literally no room for error
Top 4: Chelsea sliding backwards to possibly make it 2 from 3 - Man Utd just clinging on mathematically but for Spurs & Arsenal, the margin is the same as at the top, with the additional complication of a 6-pointer on Thursday

Relegation: Everton, Leeds & Burnley all hitting some sort of form in recent weeks to try and avoid that last place. I know Watford aren't official...but they're done

So yeah - another big weekend...any slips now could be fatal!

Let's get statty:

This week, 13 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (13/13)
Most disputed prediction: Southampton vs Crystal Palace (8-3-2 split)

Highest odds/Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (421/1)

Best predictor: 4 of yous (7/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (4/10)
Average score: 6/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (13/13)
Worst predicted results: Brighton & Everton WINS (1/13 - well done David Silverman & Nick Taylor-Collins respectively)

Everyone's scores:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 24/34)

This week's predos:


Good luck all

S11M34: Dust x Gravity

 No waffle, Just results. The way it should be....

M31
14 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (13/14)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Wolves (4-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (9295/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (6145/1)
Average odds: 7720/1

Best predictors: Loads of you (5/10)
Worst predictor: Raffi Kleiman (1/10)
Average score: 4.9/10

Best Predicted results: Leicester & Spurs WINS (9/14)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (1/14)

M32 (6 games, scores pro-rated)
14 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (14/14)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Leicester (7-1-6 split)

No odds from anyone

Best predictors: Loads of us (6.67/10)
Worst predictor: ECI, Natan Kleiman, Raffi Kleiman (1.67/10)
Average score: 4.29/10

Best Predicted results: Man Utd WIN (14/14)
Worst predicted result: Southampton WIN (1/14)

M33
11 people played
Most popular predicted results: Newcastle, Man City & Liverpool WINS (10/11)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Wolves (4-5-5 split)

Highest/ Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1346/1)

Best predictors: Feneley (7/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (2/10)
Average score: 4.91/10

Best Predicted results: Newcastle, Man City & Liverpool WINS (10/11)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace vs Leeds DRAW (1/11)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 23/33)

This week's Predos:

Good luck

S11M31: Shake Up

The thing about numbers, right, is that they're both beautiful and terrifying. Numbers are unarguable. but we aren't computers, and human brains are developed to think in terms of narratives, which by definition require arguments. This means you end up with numbers crowbarred into spaces they don't want to be, if you were to anthropomorphasise [sic] them, which of course is a narrative structure rather than a mathematical one. You see my point.

Someone - usually thought to be Disraeli, although of course, with rudimentary research, that apocryphal tale can be put to bed -  mentioned this of course with the maxim "Lies, damn lies & statistics" - we know of countless examples of this from our everyday lives, but it obviously extends to the footballing arena, because...well....why wouldn't it? It's microcosmic of everything else human.

I speak, of course, of Punditry. Talking heads. Ex-pros. Grizzled visages replacing fresh-faced football stickers. Except Alan Hansen who somehow got younger and younger until he retired, like some sort of Caledonian Benjamin Button.

Now Punditry has its place. As above, we are a narrative species. Only the very few of us would prefer to spend halftime and fulltime watching tables of numbers and graphics scroll through the screen like a videogames sans the soundtrack. The art of Punditry is to make sense of the noise and succinctly explain themes and events, offering insight that the layman may not have appreciated. It is not to sit back as if in the clubhouse and jocularly backslap and espouse lazy guff based on prejudicial opinion. In that case, the numbers are used without context, without framing and selectively to further reinforce a false narrative, and because, we are ultimately sheeple (or being kind, busy and disinterested in forensic interrogation), the false narrative becomes the prevailing narrative even though it is built on the foul-smelling exhaust gases from a dinosaur.

So, with that in mind, Wayne Rooney was surprisingly impressive this week. He has got a disturbingly large head these days though. But without measuring it, that's probably narrative, not data.

Let's get statty

This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Chelsea, Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed prediction: Wolves vs Aston Villa (7-6-3 split)

Highest/Lowest Odds: Steven Daniels (569/1)

Best predictors: AFM & Raffi Kleiman (7/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (2/10)
Average odds: 4.88/5

Best predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Brentford, Crystal Palace WINS (0/16)

Everyone's results:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 21/30)

 This week's predos

Good luck everyone!