S11M34: Dust x Gravity

 No waffle, Just results. The way it should be....

M31
14 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (13/14)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Wolves (4-5-5 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (9295/1)
Lowest odds: Aron Kleiman (6145/1)
Average odds: 7720/1

Best predictors: Loads of you (5/10)
Worst predictor: Raffi Kleiman (1/10)
Average score: 4.9/10

Best Predicted results: Leicester & Spurs WINS (9/14)
Worst predicted result: Brighton WIN (1/14)

M32 (6 games, scores pro-rated)
14 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (14/14)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Leicester (7-1-6 split)

No odds from anyone

Best predictors: Loads of us (6.67/10)
Worst predictor: ECI, Natan Kleiman, Raffi Kleiman (1.67/10)
Average score: 4.29/10

Best Predicted results: Man Utd WIN (14/14)
Worst predicted result: Southampton WIN (1/14)

M33
11 people played
Most popular predicted results: Newcastle, Man City & Liverpool WINS (10/11)
Most disputed prediction: Newcastle vs Wolves (4-5-5 split)

Highest/ Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1346/1)

Best predictors: Feneley (7/10)
Worst predictor: Lawro (2/10)
Average score: 4.91/10

Best Predicted results: Newcastle, Man City & Liverpool WINS (10/11)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace vs Leeds DRAW (1/11)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 23/33)

This week's Predos:

Good luck

S11M31: Shake Up

The thing about numbers, right, is that they're both beautiful and terrifying. Numbers are unarguable. but we aren't computers, and human brains are developed to think in terms of narratives, which by definition require arguments. This means you end up with numbers crowbarred into spaces they don't want to be, if you were to anthropomorphasise [sic] them, which of course is a narrative structure rather than a mathematical one. You see my point.

Someone - usually thought to be Disraeli, although of course, with rudimentary research, that apocryphal tale can be put to bed -  mentioned this of course with the maxim "Lies, damn lies & statistics" - we know of countless examples of this from our everyday lives, but it obviously extends to the footballing arena, because...well....why wouldn't it? It's microcosmic of everything else human.

I speak, of course, of Punditry. Talking heads. Ex-pros. Grizzled visages replacing fresh-faced football stickers. Except Alan Hansen who somehow got younger and younger until he retired, like some sort of Caledonian Benjamin Button.

Now Punditry has its place. As above, we are a narrative species. Only the very few of us would prefer to spend halftime and fulltime watching tables of numbers and graphics scroll through the screen like a videogames sans the soundtrack. The art of Punditry is to make sense of the noise and succinctly explain themes and events, offering insight that the layman may not have appreciated. It is not to sit back as if in the clubhouse and jocularly backslap and espouse lazy guff based on prejudicial opinion. In that case, the numbers are used without context, without framing and selectively to further reinforce a false narrative, and because, we are ultimately sheeple (or being kind, busy and disinterested in forensic interrogation), the false narrative becomes the prevailing narrative even though it is built on the foul-smelling exhaust gases from a dinosaur.

So, with that in mind, Wayne Rooney was surprisingly impressive this week. He has got a disturbingly large head these days though. But without measuring it, that's probably narrative, not data.

Let's get statty

This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Chelsea, Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Most disputed prediction: Wolves vs Aston Villa (7-6-3 split)

Highest/Lowest Odds: Steven Daniels (569/1)

Best predictors: AFM & Raffi Kleiman (7/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (2/10)
Average odds: 4.88/5

Best predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Brentford, Crystal Palace WINS (0/16)

Everyone's results:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 21/30)

 This week's predos

Good luck everyone!

S11M30: Baton Exchange

Always a joy writing 2 weeks after an International break. I also forgot to screenshot ECI before it all updated so yeah, oops. In fairness, I've been quite busy. Had to do a bit of stuff and then had a few things to sort out, on a background of some bits and bobs so I've been a bit distracted.

Anyway, we're into the final quarter of the season. The home leg. The last dance. The ultimate jubilee? Too soon. Loads of people have been doing their predicotrons - getting on the band wagon late in the season. FOR SHAME. Anyway, for me, it comes down to 2 games - MCI/LFC & TH/AFC - the winner of those games will feel a lot happier about their run in. Chelsea are secure in 3rd. Man Utd probably done for top 4. Relegation - Norwich and Watford are done for me. So it's 1 from Burnley, Everton, Leeds and maybe Brentford. I think I'd prefer Burnley for obviously reasons, and we've got a rubbish recent record at Goodison so they can go too. Although not if Liverpool win the league. Unbearable.

So let's just run through the stats and then get on with the Predos

This week, 15 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (15/15)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Aston Villa (4-6-5 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (3415/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (3415/1)
Average odds: Guess

Best predictors: Loads of you (6/10)
Worst predictor: WSC (3/10)
Average score 5/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (15/15)
Worst predicted results: Watford WIN & Crystal Palace vs Man City DRAW (0/10)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 21/29)

 To this week's predos:

Good luck!

S11M29: *Blinking Emoji*

Well.

No shocks on the pitch but a major quake off it. In 2003, Russian Tanks were a rhetorical flourish, "firing 50 rouble notes" as Abramovich changed the face of the PL and football in general.

in 2022, Russian tanks are anything but rhetorical but Abramovich's time has drawn to an ignominious close. The attempts to protect Chelsea have failed and the sanctions imposed leave an uncertain future. I'm not the guy to dig into this all, but those in the know feel there's a very real risk of administration if the terms of the licence aren't amended. This has a huge impact on everything and frankly, I don't know how I feel about it.

In some way, you lie down with dogs and you get fleas. 20 years of unimaginable success to a Chelsea fan in 2000 is the smooth, this is the rough.

On the other hand, it all seems very far removed from the fighting in Ukraine. I've heard it both ways - that other companies with sanctions have been forced to stop trading so Chelsea are lucky, and conversely, some companies haven't had anywhere near this level on restriction placed on them, so this is unfair.

What also seems unfair, frankly, is this happening 3 months after the takeover of Newcastle by the Saudi "PIF" - which let's be clear, is not an arm's length anything, when the Fit & Proper persons test CLEARLY is a struggle there. So - yeah - I'm all for this, and going further and doing this properly. Otherwise - is it all window dressing?

Conveniently they're playing each other this weekend....

Let's get statty:

This week, 17 people played
Most popular predicted results: Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (16/17)
Most disputed prediction: Aston Villa vs Southampton (6-7-4 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (751/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (951/1)
Average odds: 851/1

Best Predicotr: Aron Kleiman (9/10)
Worst Predictor: Raffi Kleiman (4/10)
Average score: 6.82/10

Best predicted results: Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (16/17)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN (2/17)

Everyone's scores:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 18/27)



To this week's predos:



Good luck all!

S11M28: Master of the Craft

Well, this has been quite the week.

The major talking point early on was about the absolute failure of officiating at Goodison to decide not just on the pitch, but with the benefit of video replays, that Rodri had not handballed in the box in the last few minutes. On the Arsenal train, we've been banging on about officiating for ages - not that it's corrupt, but that it's for sure incompetent.

That said...when you get things like this....it doesn't help prove the conspiracists wrong...

All of that has now been superceded however, and so, permit me to use my soapbox to not recap the events on the pitch, but to give my thoughts on the off-the-pitch story of the week. I've run this past the Impossibilitee lawyers to make sure I don't end up in hot water... 

I of course refer to Roman Abramovich packing his bags and putting Chelsea up for sale. I am of course not a billionaire oligarch, although not for lack of trying so I don't really know the ins & outs of international asset manipulation and sanctions etc, but it would be the coincidence of all coincidences if this surprise news just happened to occur the week that direct sanctions are being discussed in Parliament, and that fellow, er, football club persona, Usmanov, has faced similar issues....

The statement itself is a nonsense. The whole trusteeship to the Chelsea Foundation thing is a nonsense. It's all transparent PR and asking for £3-4bn for a club valued at half of that is not "forgoing loans". Nonsense, nonsense, nonsense.

The wider implications need more reflection though. Abramovich's arrival in 2003 changed football forever really, and led to the "arms race" (dripping with irony that) that saw billionaires of all stripes, and latterly actual nation states buying football clubs and injecting them with money like an Olympic Athlete from a country that's now banned and has to partake under a neutral flag.

Here's the thing though. Even within this, it's complicated. Or at least, stratified. The corinthian ideals are long gone. The local champion model is on it's way out, and also gone from the sharp end of elite sport. So what is "good" ownership now?

Is it the rapacious profit-driven model a la Man Utd?
Is it the play thing of a bored oligarch?
Is it a bad hombre looking to protect himself from other bad hombres by getting a public persona?
Is it a sovereign wealth fund?
Is it a sovereign wealth fund from somewhere we don't like?
Is it a sports fan who can be any of the above?

What does Good look like? 

Abramovich got rich off circumstances but never chopped off a journalist's arms and legs. He seemed to genuinely have an affection for Chelsea. Where does he sit in the hierarchy? 

I'm not sure what the answer is - and having just gone through the Kroenke-Ek saga last year, I've done a fair amount of thinking on this. I think once you exclude the clear villains, beyond that, it's all shades of grey from a cloud that isn't blowing away any time soon.

On that cheerful note...

Let's get statty:

15 people played
8 matches - scores pro-rated
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (15/15)
Most disputed prediction: Brentford vs Newcastle (5-4-6 split)

Highest & lowest odds: Steven Daniels (263/1)

Best predictors: David Brickman, Steven Daniels & Aron Kleiman (7.5/10)
Worst predictor: AFM (2.5/10)
Average score: 5.67/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (15/15)
Worst predicted result: Watford vs Man Utd DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's results:

To the Leaderboard (>2/3; 18/27)

To this week's predos:

Good luck all!

S11M27: Tough Breaks

Hard week this week. As the first Horseman of the Apocalypse disappeared (legally) from our shores, the next one up sets up camp on the banks of the Dnieper River. Was it always like this? It feels like somewhere around 2016 the world slipped through a wormhole into another dimension where it just doesn't quit.

So, let's leave current affairs for a minute and look at the football

As the new transfer business settles and the clubs realised we're into the final approach, we're seeing some waking from slumber.

The dross are getting results. The flawed are starting to get tense. Man City are bored and playing with their food again. All very exciting for 2 weeks or so.

M24 (9 games, prorated)
13 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool WIN (13/13)
Most disputed results: Newcastle vs Everton & Norwich vs Crystal Palace (6-4-3 & 3-4-6 split)

Highest & lowest odds: Steven Daniels (716/1)

Best predictor: AFM (7.78/10)
Worst predictors: Lawro & Steven Daniels (3.33/10)
Average score: 5.04/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (13/13)
Worst predicted result: Southampton WIN (0/13)

M25 (9 games, prorated)

17 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (17/17)
Most disputed results: Brentford vs Crystal Palace, Everton vs Leeds &Leicester vs West Ham (7-7-3, 8-4-5 & 5-4-8 splits)

Highest & lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1063/1)

Best predictor: AF (8.89/10)
Worst predictors: Raffi Kleiman & David Silverman (2.22/10)
Average score: 5.16/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (17/17)
Worst predicted result: Wolves WIN (1/17) - well done AF

M26
16 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool, Chelsea & Arsenal WINS (16/16)
Most disputed result: Southampton vs Everton (10-3-3 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (1042/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (357/1)
Average odds: 700/1

Best predictors: Steven Daniels & Raffi Kleiman (7/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (3/10)
Average score: 5.25/10

Best predicted results: Liverpool, Chelsea & Arsenal WINS (16/16)
Worst predicted results: Watford, Burnley & Spurs WINS (1/17) - well done RK x2 & NKx1

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 17/25):

To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S11M26: Drooping Lids

 My evening ran away from me. Took me longer than I thought it was going to do submit 2 things for an upcoming conference, 90 mins before the deadline that I've known about for months and months.

You'd think the main learning from school would be life skills like don't leave everything to the last minute, but all that stuff remains, whilst I can tell you how to say "penguins waddle" in French, or describe what Avogadro's constant is, or why the Corn Laws were repealed. All very critical to my life years on.

So anyway, I've not done the statsy bit, so that'll follow, but I think it's important to point out that Norwich and Watford are bad, and Newcastle are now less bad since they spent a bajillion on players. This upsets me, because the more bad the better. Unless they're Arsenal, in whihc case we can't be bad because we don't play. Tell you who is bad though. Man Utd, West Ham and the little club who can't, Tottenham. Maybe one day I'll upload the video of my son playing happily with Lego, without a care in the world and tunelessly singing "Tottenham get battered everywhere they go" at a volume that belies his little lungs. 

Gets it from his mother, I'm sure.

Anyway, Liverpool and Man City won. Big srprise. FFL has fixed Everton immediately. No but seriously. And a bore draw in the South(west) London derby.

Stats to follow

predos now:

Good luck all