S5M20: All downhill from here

The festive football often throws a curveball or 2 - often due to the frequency of fixture and the propensity for derbies. Arguably, as the league becomes more compacted (as per the Elo method), "shocks" shouldn't be quite so surprising - and therefore the adage that anyone could beat anyone else rings truer.

And so it was - Leicester ended their long unbeaten run with defeat at Anfield and Stoke continued their great form against the bigger clubs to beat Man Utd. Arsenal fluffed the chance to go top by being soundly beaten at St Mary's for the 2nd time in a year - although they then took top spot with a comfortable performance against a blunted Bournemouth side.

Chelsea's ship is stabilising (#sadface) as would be expected - the old regression to the mean thing.  Norwich and Spurs continued their good form as well, whilst the rest bumbled around without really doing much of interest.

Except for in the North East. 4 games, 4 defeats for Newcastle & Sunderland. Combined with Villa's trajectory, and this might be the first season where the 3 relegation spots are confirmed before the league title/top 4 is decided. I've not factchecked that statement.

Anyway, let's get statty:

Matchday 18:
 28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: Stoke vs Man Utd (9-11-8 split)

Highest odds: My mother 16,475/1
Lowest odds: Doron 2968/1
Average odds: 7315/1

Best predictor: David Silverman (7/10)
Worst predictor: Steven Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 4.29/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (28/28)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea vs Watford DRAW & Southampton WIN (1/28 - congrats Eli Daniels & Stan Collymore)

Swing: Bojan & Benteke's openers/winners - 11 in each match left disappointed

Matchday 19:
28 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (28/28)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Southampton (8-9-11 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 19,825/1
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon 8,549/1
Average odds: 13,209/1

Best predictor: Lawro (7/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com, Stan Collymore & Zoe Daniels (2/10)
Average score: 4.29/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (28/28)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (3/28)

Swing: Son's (illegal) late winner for Spurs - 12 have arguable cases for compensation

Everyone's results:

As ever, 1st column M18, 2nd M19

Leaderboard (>2/3; 13/19)

To this week's predos:

West Ham vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Arsenal vs Newcastle - ARSENAL
Leicester vs Bournemouth - LEICESTER
Man Utd vs Swansea - MAN UTD
Norwich vs Southampton - NORWICH
Sunderland vs Aston Villa - SUNDERLAND
WBA vs Stoke  - STOKE
Watford vs Man City - MAN CITY
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea - CRYSTAL PALACE
Everton vs Spurs - SPURS

Remember - return of the FA Cup game  next week - only £5 to enter!

Happy new year guys - and good luck

S5MXmas

So for anyone who's going to read this - Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays. It's difficult to type when full of turkey. I feel like my fingers are full of stuffing.

Anywho, last weekend saw the shedending of the Jose weight, and Chelsea managed to play their best football of the season against a very compliant Sunderland side. Thereafter followed a sequence of 5 away wins in a row - all of which a surprise of some degree. Everton losing to Leicester at home was a cracking game, Norwich recording their first win at Old Trafford since the days of George Best or something was even more of a shocker. The speculation and pressure continues to mount for Van Gaal, but I for one hope he stays. Forever. Spurs winning away at Southampton was probably the least surprising given their respective forms this season, and I guess the Palace win at Stoke and Bournemouth's continued charge at WBA could be placed in the same category. 

The Villa fightback begun with an equaliser from Jordan Ayew - watch this space for some Remi magic. Then on Sunday, Watford played as everyone knew they would, and Klopp's labile Liverpool career continued, before we all caught our breaths with a bore-draw in Wales.

The Monday night game was brilliant. A cracking atmosphere....and a first half that was exciting without any real threat until the half hour. City really should have taken the lead through de Bruyne (or Silva), and the "2 goal swing" was compounded a minute later by a cracker from Walcott. I was sitting directly in line with that finish and it was delicious. Hart grasping fresh air like a man who uses his hands to knead that shampoo into his scalp. Giroud's first time finish just before half-time was also preceded by a City chance...and a 2 goal lead was there that didn't feel like a 2 goal game.

The second half was quite comfortable from an Arsenal perspective (if time didn't go so damn slowly) until Yaya decided he'd had enough of rolling around the floor like a small child, and recognised his diving wasn't going to win him friends nor penalties.

That lad can play. When he flicked the switch - and it was literally that fast - he plays a different sport to those around him. His finish - I mean he totally meant it, but I'm still not entirely sure what he did. Maybe someone offered him a birthday cake or something, but a squad full of players like him remain the reason why City are still favourites for the league in my view.

Anyway, let's get statty:

This week, 26 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man United WIN (24/26)

Most disputed result: WBA vs Bournemouth (9-9-8 split)

Highest odds: AFM 336,228/1 (I could cry but she beat me....)

Lowest odds: Yo Abbott: 5684/1 (it was a high odds week in fairness...but the above is ridiculous)

Average odds: 56,135/1 (including anomalies as I'm not entirely sure where I can draw the line) 

Best Predictor: Zoë Daniels (7/10)

Worst predictor: Loads of us (2/10)

Average score: 3.27/10 (season low)

Best predicted result: Chelsea & Arsenal WINS (19/26 - not one person went for a Man City win bizarrely)

Worst predicted result: Norwich WIN (1/26 - well done Mother Feneley)

Swing: Jordan Ayew's goal as above - 22 people foxed. 

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 12/17)

This week's predos:

Boxing Day:

Stoke vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Aston Villa vs West Ham - ASTON VILLA
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace - BOURNEMOUTH
Chelsea vs Watford - CHELSEA
Liverpool vs Leicester  - LIVERPOOL
Man City vs Sunderland - MAN CITY
Swansea vs WBA - DRAW
Spurs vs Norwich  -SPURS
Newcastle vs Everton - EVERTON
Southampton vs Arsenal - DRAW

Midweek:

Crystal Palace vs Swansea - DRAW
Everton vs Stoke - EVERTON
Norwich vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA
Watford vs Spurs - DRAW
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Arsenal vs Bournemouth - ARSENAL
Man Utd vs Chelsea - MAN UTD
West Ham vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
Leicester vs Man City - MAN CITY
Sunderland vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

(Edit: 1431 27/12/15)

Good luck guys. Hope your festive seasons are merry and bright

S5M17: Tear it up (Start again)

Tonight was one of those times that journalists hate - and in my own way, I now empathise.  All my carefully mentally-constructed themes for this blog (I don't just make it up on the spot ya know....) have been discarded as my brain struggles to penetrate the dense fog penetrating my every thought.

The head cloud that looks like Nelson Muntz from The Simpsons. The auditory hallucination of raucous, mocking laughter.  The internal soundtrack playing (a well kl, street mix of) "Ding dong, the Witch is dead".

Yea friends. My brother from another mother, oligarch and all round bad guy Roman has pulled the trigger and the era of Mou is no mour.

There was a cracking mail in the F365 mailbox posted about 20 mins before he was 'mutually consented' talking about the similarities between Napoleon Bonaparte and Jose Mourinho. Whilst I do like the idea of dumping the unemployed Portuguese on a rock in the middle of the Atlantic, I am somewhat terrified by the thought of his progeny coming back to the Premier League in a few years.

Anyway, whilst I can no longer do it justice - well done to Leicester, Watford and Bournemouth. Newcastle really are wonderfully schizophrenic and Villa are impressively depressed  (psych 101). I'd also like to make special mention of David Moyes who really is a moron. Jury's still out, my size 11.

Maureenlolz. Just couldn't have happened to a nicer bloke.

Anyway, let's get statty:

This week, 27 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (27/27)
Most disputed result: Sunderland vs Watford (7-11-9 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 5104/1
Lowest odds: Feneley 917/1
Average odds: 2445/1

Best predictors: Loads - 5/10
Worst predictors: Nick Jones & My mother (2/10)
Average score: 3.85

Best predicted results: Arsenal & Man City WINS (27/27)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle WIN (0/27)

Swing: Hoolahan's equaliser for Norwich (25 disappointed)

Result that united literally the whole country and should be played on a projector at the UN over and over because it'll fo-sho lead to world peace: Leicester beating Chelsea. Congrats guys.

Everyone's results:

The leaderboard  (>2/3 available weeks; 11/16)

To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA (obviously. Hazard & Fabregas to shine)

Everton vs Leicester - DRAW

Man Utd vs Norwich  - MAN UTD

Southampton vs Spurs - DRAW

Stoke vs Crystal Palace - STOKE

WBA vs Bournemouth - BOURNEMOUTH

Newcastle vs Aston Villa - NEWCASTLE

Watford vs Liverpool - DRAW

Swansea vs West Ham - SWANSEA

Arsenal vs Man City - DRAW

Total odds to follow

Good luck guys.

MOURINHAHA

S5M16: Swans deflowered

Howdy all.

Much of the discourse this week has been about how brilliantly unpredictable this season has been. I take great pride in my ever-increasing database of predictions, and I can categorically state that most things are "unpredictable" - within the obvious limits of only a few choices.

For example, this weekend threw up several results that foiled us predictors - but I would argue the only one that was genuinely a surprise was Southampton drawing with a poor Villa side. All the other "shock" results - Stoke beating Man City at home, Newcastle beating Liverpool at home, Man Utd having a goalless draw when West Ham were away, Tony Pulis and Pocchetino presiding over a tight scrappy draw - in the cold light of day, none of these things are particularly ridiculous. Chelsea losing at home to Bournemouth is ridiculous when you compare resources, but Chelsea are in such a rut presently, at least psychologically, that it's not quite so ridiculous. Although....of course, no on is prepared to put money down on it...

You see, my theory (based on absolutely no research whatsoever - I'd rather just sound off on matter psychological) is that we form entrenched biases that are 1) massively retrograde and 2) highly resistant to alteration. We know which teams are good because we have watched football for ages - and whilst this approach is fallible on any given matchday, it explains why you could predict the finishing table in August and be relatively close for 12-15 of the teams. What we don't do well, in my opinion, is react to poor form, or history of a specific fixture (ie does one team often nullify another?). We always think that the team is bound to turn it around - and I think this is a common flaw to us all. Look at how many predict a Man Utd win week-to week in the last few years. Or Chelsea or Liverpool. We think that Arsenal or City are bound to win their games regardless of the schizophrenic nature of their actual play.

I mean - I always assume the away team in the Newcastle vs Sunderland fixture will lose because of the distance travelled - as if they were stuck in traffic on the motorway instead of in a chartered plane for an hour. Some mental models are just hard to shift.

Let's get statty:

M14
This week, 27 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Arsenal WINS (26/27)
Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Watford (10-10-7 split)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels (7263/1)
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (2795/1)
Average odds: 4477/1

Best predictors:  Feneley & David Brickman (6/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com & Aron Kleiman (2/10)
Average score: 4.04/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (26/27)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth vs Everton & Norwich vs Arsenal DRAWS (1/10)

Swing: Grabban's equaliser - 26 annoyed

M15
This week, 29 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool WIN (28/29)
Most disputed result: WBA vs Spurs (4-9-16 split)

Highest odds: Zoe Daniels (22,164/1)
Lowest odds: Doron Salomon (276/1)
Average odds: 4819/1

Best predictor: Feneley & Dagmar (5/10)
Worst predictor: Nick Jones (1/10)
Average score: 3.03/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (26/29)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth & Newcastle WINS (0/29)

Swing: James McClean's equaliser for WBA denied 16 people an extra point

Everybody's results:

To clarify this rather horrible looking graph: blue = M14, red = M15. Pros/Statistical predictors in 2 shades of their usual colours. Missed weeks are blank (i.e. me having no blue line)

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 of game weeks (11/15)

To this week's predictions:

Norwich vs Everton - EVERTON

Crystal Palace vs Southampton - CRYSTAL PALACE

Man City vs Swansea - MAN CITY

Sunderland vs Watford - DRAW

West Ham vs Stoke - STOKE

Bournemouth vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Aston Villa vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL 

Spurs vs Newcastle - SPURS

Leicester vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Odds to follow

Please note how after after all I've written above...I've still gone for all big teams to win. Face. Palm.

Good luck guys, see y'all next week

S5M15: Gone with the wind

It's taken 4 1/3 years but the final 100% impossibilitee participation record has gone.

Me. I forgot my own bloody game. Like seriously. I was hopping mad last week. In fairness, I have just moved house and had no Internet.  But come on....it's my game! I'd sorted a blog nice and early and could have posted my predos then. I'd put a reminder on my phone and ignored that (was genuinely busy) and could have used my phone to post at any time.

But I didn't.  Just completely forgot. Turned the footballing clock back to 2009. Frankly I'm disgusted with myself.

Truth be told...I don't really know much of what happened last weekend as I was unpacking any number of the 6 billion cardboard boxes littering my new lounge. I took a break to watch Arsenal and wished I hadn't.  And I'm still having technical difficulties with my new router  (same provider...why can't I just use my old hub and plug it straight in? Why did they have to meddle?!?!?) so can't upload any graphs etc so results can wait until next week. Apologies for the chaos. It's probably Michael Owen's fault.

So just this week's predos then today:

Stoke vs Man City - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Sunderland - DRAW
Man Utd vs West Ham - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Aston Villa - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Watford vs Norwich - WATFORD
WBA vs Spurs - SPURS
Chelsea vs Bournemouth - CHELSEA
Newcastle vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Everton vs Crystal Palace - EVERTON

Odds to follow when/if I fix the Internet.

Good luck guys

S5M14: Giddy Lineker

I know a few Leicester fans. Suffice it to say, they're generally full of optimism. They've experienced enough rough over the years to enjoy the good times when they come - like the victory over Man Utd last year.

They've been enjoying being this year's surprise package, but now, with 13 matches gone - or 1/3 of the season, they find themselves unable to remain calm any longer. Top of the table, led by Vardy & Mahrez and managed by a rejuvenated Ranieri.

No-one expects them to go the distance as greater squad depth is likely to tell for the bigger clubs as the season progresses - but for now, they're loving life, and fair play to them.

Let's face it. Neither Arsenal nor Man City are nailed on. Man Utd are consistent but unconvincing - it feels like they could be derailed very easily. Liverpool swing between sublime and ridiculous, whilst Spurs are the quietly efficient dark horses. So why shouldn't Leicester make hay, and if they end up 4th or 5th, it'd be a phenomenal season.

Truth be told, I didn't see much football last weekend, nor even MOTD so I'm in no place to comment on the games - but a quick word for Sunderland who somehow managed to Big Sam their way to a win at Selhurst Park. He's gonna bloody do it, isn't he?

Just the short one this week then!

Let's get statty:

This week, 28 people played
Most popular predicted results: Everton & Arsenal WINS (27/28)
Most disputed result: Newcastle vs Leicester (2-13-13 split)

Highest odds: My mother 123,617/1 - then my sister 22,255/1, followed by Andrew Feneley's mother 12,860/1. Dear oh dear
Lowest odds: Feneley 423/1
Average odds: 15, 256/1

Best predictors: Loads (5/10 - see below)
Worst predictors: Sam Ruback & David Brickman (2/10)
Average score: 4.07/10

Best predicted result: Everton WIN (27/28)
Worst predicted result: WBA WIN (0/28 - oops)

Swing: Vardy's opener (and eventual winner) upset 13 people

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 9/13)

To this week's predictions:

Aston Villa vs Watford

Bournemouth vs Everton

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Man City vs Southampton

Sunderland vs Stoke

Leicester vs Man Utd

Spurs vs Chelsea

West Ham vs WBA
Liverpool vs Swansea
Norwich vs Arsenal

Total odds to be updated later in the week

Good luck guys

S5M13: A big week

Since the last time I pressed publish, a hell of a lot has happened. I've had some great stuff in my personal life, which is always nice (classic footballer interview phrase) and some major stuff professionally too (see the news for more details).

And then there was Paris.

I got home last Friday night and had a push notification on my phone with the headline waiting for me. 2 hours of rolling news later I went to bed, and then resumed on the Saturday morning.

It's sickening, scary and outrageous all at once. It's difficult to process such a sustained, sophisticated attack on joie de vivre. The footage of the match at the Stade de France with the explosions audible was just bizarre.

I think it all feels more personal as a football fan - or a music fan. The ability to create a mental image of what happened, but translocated to your own sacred space. The cursory searches that you're subject to, The realisation that for all the bile spewed at the opposition players and fans, you'd drop it all in a heartbeat for real life.

Sport has a phenomenal redemptive power. It is the eternal optimist. The renaissance followed at Wembley, with a raw, emotional crowd and stoic guests. I've been singing the Marseillaise in my head for the last week. My own act of rebellion. For they shall not win.

To this week's predos:

Watford vs Man Utd -  MAN UTD
Chelsea vs Norwich - CHELSEA
Everton vs Aston Villa - EVERTON
Newcastle vs Leicester - DRAW
Southampton vs Stoke - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Bournemouth - DRAW
WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Man City vs Liverpool - MAN CITY
Spurs vs West Ham - SPURS
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland - CRYSTAL PALACE

Total odds: 511/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys