S4M35: Rage Against The Machine (& Tarek)

Let's get straight to it. This was not a good week. I've added to my list of off-season hypotheses to be tested the theory that Christmas & the end of the season have the lowest scores, due to unpredictable scores. The Christmas theory is based around fatigue - the end of the season being due to the disparate "importance" for points in match-ups.

Suffice it to say, that the average score was low this week, but digging into the numbers a little more revealed an interested trend. 2 of the joint worst performers were the most statistical predictors in ECI & FinkTank, suggesting that their long-term, data-driven approach to prediction doesn't allow for the flexibility of my end-of-season theory above. Tarek completed the set - for him, I have no reason. Too many meatballs or something.

Anyway, this is good news for humans everywhere, since when the whole Skynet thing happens as prophesied by Cameron the Wise in 1984, we will have an edge with which we can hold out until help arrives in a DeLorean or something.

Koeman and Poch managed to press each other into parity in the early kick off, before a couple of missed penalties did their best to call time on part of the relegation battle - QPR at least salvaging the draw, whilst Burnley showed that you are not just vulnerable after you score, but also when you should have scored! Leicester gaining karmic retribution for the Watford playoff episode of a couple of years ago.

Hull also managed to win away for only the 2 time this season - Pardew continuing his streaky form as demonstrated at Newcastle for so long.

Streaky Mind Map

Newcastle, of course, were obvious in losing, although they made it seem closer than it was with a late goal. John Carver is going his best to be statistically the worst manager in the history of football. Sunderland got an objectively cracking result with a draw away at Stoke, but in the context of what they need, it's not good enough.

Liverpool's wheels have well and truly come off, losing to Hull after a draw with WBA, whilst LvG has now lost 2 in a row, in the same fixture that did for Moyes last year. You wonder if Moyes would have been given more time if he'd also been aggressive in his press conferences. Man City got a late winner to beat Villa, who should have had a penalty against not-Joe-Hart after he brought down Benteke at 2-2 when through on goal. Amazing how they seem to be stumbling so much given the quality of their squad.

The final weekend game saw Mourinho be predictable, and Arsenal almost as predictable, especially given Everton's win earlier in the day. A reasonably tight game saw both teams happy with a point, followed by a week of squawking in the press about who's actually better.

In my view, it's quite simple. Chelsea are the better team. That's why they are top. They're top because they've been the best team in the country all season, but have been operating at an "efficient" level since January. Whether that's due to injury, other teams figuring them out or Mourinho reverting to his tried and tested tactics, they've earned the right to scrap their way to lifting the trophy, likely this weekend. Every single team would do the same as Chelsea did this weekend, were they in the same position.

That said, it is boring. It's always boring to watch a team scraping it's way through an extended period unless you're a fan of said team when it's excruciating during games and then great after. It's more boring when that team contains phenomenal attacking talent, and have already shown their ability to demolish other sides only a few months ago.

Why the reaction? In my opinion, it's because, deep down, they (Mourinho/Chelsea fans) know it's true. They know that, whilst the record books record the victors, the epic stories of football - the things that all football fans can love on a non-partisan basis, and the stuff that gets young kids hooked is the story - the legend. All the banners in the Shed End will never create that kind of buzz around Mourinho shutting a game down. Ironically....the epic stories (for a neutral) come from the Inter-Mourinho years - the Miss in Moscow and the Di Matteo fairytale in Munich. Maybe I'm wrong - that's just my opinion.

Let's get statty:

This week, 20 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20) - how lucky we all were...Obrigado Fernandinho!

Most disputed result: Burnley vs Leicester (6-6-8 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon (5881/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (1080/1)
Average odds: 4052/1

Best Predictor: Richard Verber (6/1)
Worst predictors: Tarek Najm, ECI & FinkTank
Average score: 3.15/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20)
Worst predicted result: Stoke vs Sunderland DRAW (1/18)

Swing: Chadli's equaliser for Spurs - ruining the afternoon for 8 people.

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 available weeks (23/34)

To this week's predos:

Leicester vs Newcastle - LEICESTER
Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs QPR - LIVERPOOL
Sunderland vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
Swansea vs Stoke - DRAW
West Ham vs Burnley - DRAW
Man Utd vs WBA - MAN UTD
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - CHELSEA
Spurs vs Man City - DRAW
Hull vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Total odds: 1791/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

S4M34: Pearson, Pulis and Precious Van Gaal

So, a truncated programme of Premier League football still managed to fox us all. Pun somewhat intended. Leicester seem to have finally woken up and are now going on the sort of run that could see teams that thought they were safe do that whole wake-up-with-a-start-at-stupid-o-clock-in-the-morning-being-really-confused-and-bleary-eyed-thing-and-know-that-were-it-a-real-problem-like-a-burglar-then-you-just-couldn't-do-anything-about-it-'cos-you-were-coming-from-a-cold-start thing.

You know the feeling. Pearson's team could make it 4-in-a-row (ok, might have overdone the hyphens now) playing a Burnley team who look like their resistance is starting to crumble. Their issue is goals - they work hard and rarely concede loads - but if you can't score, then conceding 1 is often enough to drop points, and 2 is nearly always a death sentence. In fairness, I think many, both fans of the club and neutrals, thought they would be even worse off now, so it's par for the course, and they'll gladly take the parachute payments and, will in due course, be back, I'm sure.

They lost to an Everton side also putting together a late run - but by contrast, this has been disappointing to Evertonians compared to last season's valiant effort to get CL football. They face a Man Utd team who they doubled last season - the question now is whether van Gaal will get his team to respond or whether their newly found confidence is fragile. I didn't see the game last week, but by everything I've heard/read - it went roughly to the predicted Mourinho plan. I did, however, see the van Gaal press conference on MoTD. Wow. Talk about spitting the dummy out. I get that these are uber competitive guys being interviewed in a cupboard (seriously...flash interview spaces are amazingly cramped) after an emotionally draining afternoon, but no need to act like a complete John Terry about it.

Speaking of whom, Chelsea will look to pull the same miserable rabbit out of their blue hat against the form team in the league. Arsenal have been less fluid in recent weeks, but have won their last 3 "big games" (don't think I've ever written that sentence on this blog in 4 years) and would love to at least delay the Chelsea open-top bus-ride around Fulham for another week. Arsenal of course, would be hoping to have one of their own in May after confirming their FA Cup final spot - followed by a rejuvenated Villa under Tim Sherwood - who seems to have nailed this mid-season boost malarkey. A post previously held by Pulis last season, who bested his successor in the role, Pardew to halt the Palace renaissance.

Quick run through of the rest: Newcastle are absolutely hopeless and I reckon Mike Ashley has just placed the club in 'Caretaker' mode. Stoke are not a bad side anymore, although you wonder in Southampton have just run out of puff now the run for 4th place is over - are their legs just a little heavy? Man City can't yet be said to have kick-started their form - West Ham are only marginally behind Newcastle in the 'already on holiday' travel brochure.

Long article - I've missed you guys

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played

Most popular predicted results: Palace & Man City results (19/21)
Most disputed result: Newcastle vs Spurs (7-6-8 split - plenty of eedjits like myself thought Newcastle might want to win one more match before the end of the season)

Highest odds: Feneley's mum (obvs) with a frankly staggering 17,952/1. This is over only 7 games.
Highest odds excluding Feneley's mum: Me (373/1)
Average odds: 3234/1 (290/1 excluding the outlier)

Best predictors: Yo Abbott (what a run of form he's had), JC backpage pin up Dinkin, Times page 20 something pinup FinkTank and er, the internet's EuroClubIndex (5/7)
Worst predictor: Me & Tarek (2/7)
Average score: 3.52/7

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/21)
Worst predicted result: WBA WIN (1/21 - well done Mrs Feneley)

Everyone's score:

To the leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 games - or 23/33.

Fink Tank has hunted down Josh Gaon....could he overtake in the final straight? Yo Abbott pushing for CL football next year...more likely glorious failure and a transfer to Real Madrid though...

To this week's predos:

Southampton vs Spurs - SPURS

Burnley vs Leicester - LEICESTER

Crystal Palace vs Hull - CRYSTAL PALACE

Newcastle vs Swansea - SWANSEA

QPR vs West Ham - QPR

Stoke vs Sunderland - STOKE

WBA vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Man City vs Aston Villa - MAN CITY

Everton vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Arsenal vs Chelsea - DRAW (as ever, not really)

Total odds: 4832/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

S4M33 & FA Cup 3 SF: All the results!

So how's everyone doing? Nice little bank holiday weekend? Bit of sunshine starting to break through. Good good.

Let's get down to business. Well...aren't Man Utd on a charge? Fair play to them...this run of games was going to make or break LvG and, credit to the big red-faced lump of Gouda....he's nailed it. Apropos to that, why do Man Utd only hire red-faced managers? Maybe the real reason why Mourinho was passed over for Moyes...

They're doing well..unlike City and Liverpool who have stumbled. Arsenal of course are doing their usual surge for 4th place, this season looking to nail it on the last day via a freefall from 2nd. Chelsea also seem to not really be that fussed about the whole winning in style thing - pets and their owners etc. Well...managers

Other teams that are currently rubbish include Spurs, Newcastle, WBA. In fact, I'd argue that Palace, Southampton and Swansea would still be quite happy with their performances, and probably Villa and QPR are happy to be showing some backbone. The rest? dunno.

What's going to be interesting is who will go down with Leicester. I still think QPR, and am edging towards Sunderland as the final side to go down....a poor side without the new manager bounce...

Anyway, that'll do for the discussions of 2 week old Premier League football.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 31:

This week, 20 people played

Most predicted results: Man Utd, Swansea & Chelsea WINS (20/20)

Most disputed result: Leicester vs West Ham (7-8-5 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley's Mum (12,895/1)

Highest odds excluding AFM: Doron (3551/1)

Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (776/1)

Average odds: 4045/1

Best predictor: Charlie R (7/10)

Worst predictors: Menachem & Richard Verber (3/10)

Average score: 5.1/10

Best predicted results: Man Utd, Swansea & Chelsea WINS (20/20)

Worst predicted results: QPR & Palace WINS (1/20 - well done me & Charlie)

Goal-swing: er, not sure....I think Ozil's free kick meant 10 people couldn't be right, and that's a bit more than Austin or Puncheon, as their result was 1 more step removed...ie more people wrong, but a draw in the middle, you dig?

Matchday 31:

This week, 19 people played

Most predicted results: Southampton, Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (19/19)

Most disputed result: Sunderland vs Crystal Palace (4-8-7 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (2663/1)

Lowest odds: Feneley (850/1)

Average odds: 1364/1

Best predictor: Loads of us (7/10)

Worst predictor: Sam Ruback 3/10)

Average score: 5.68/10

Best predicted results: Southampton, Arsenal & Liverpool WINS (19/19)

Worst predicted result: Villa WIN (0/19 - none of us backed Timmy)

Goal-swing: Shelvey's penalty - shafted 6

Everyone's results:

The leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 available weeks (22/32)

To the FA Cup game now:

The QF:

11 people played - yet again, boo Tharshan & Joe

Most predicted result: Liverpool WIN (10/11)

Most disputed result: The rest - 6-5 splits (or 5-6)

Best predictor: Joe Abbott (4/4)

Worst predictor: Brad Allix (1/4)

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (10/11)

Worst predicted result: Reading WIN (5/11)

Score from QF & totals so far:

3 points left to play for....so Joe Abbott & Sam Ruback are guaranteed some money....the question is who gets the 3rd cash spot and who gets what!

Predictions for this weekend:

Crystal Palace vs WBA - PALACE

Everton vs Burnley - EVERTON

Leicester vs Swansea - DRAW

Stoke vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Chelsea vs Man Utd - DRAW

Man City vs West Ham - MAN CITY

Newcastle vs Spurs - NEWCASTLE

Total odds: 373/1

and FA Cup (for those involved):

Reading vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Aston Villa vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

That'll do for now. I'm halfway through a death run at work myself (not literally thankfully) so hope normal service to be resumed next week when I've had some time to think!

Good luck guys!

S4 M31 & M32: The Home Stretch

So we're now into April. A clear run through now to the end of the season. The likelihood of Chelsea being crowned before the month is out. The (high) likelihood of 1, if not 2 clubs being relegated. FA Cup Semis. Happy days. The weather might improve and the whole thing becomes that bit more fun - for the neutral at any rate.

As ever, when too much time has passed since the last blog, I'm not going to rehash stuff that's been covered to death already. I'd just like to add my tuppence to Gerrardgate: Ha!

Glad to have got that out the way. England did pretty well on Friday night (as per the newspaper - obvs didn't watch) and didn't do as well vs Italy at the time of writing - these damned early match reports. Still - I reckon filing it by minute 35 beats even the most phoning-it-in Fleet St journo.

I'm writing this nice and early as I'm off for a bit of sunshine for the next 2 matchdays - so will post the predos now for both games. Can't promise individual reminders though, so the Impossibilifamilee will have to do its thing. Create a phone pyramid or something like in primary school.

'Nuff natter, Let's get statty:

Matchday 30:

This week, 20 people played

Most predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20)

Most disputed result: QPR vs Everton (6-5-9 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (4186/1)

Lowest odds: Feneley (5130/1)

Average odds: 1907/1

Best predictors: Loads of you. See below (7/10)

Worst predictors: Steven Daniels & Tarek Najm (4/10)

Average score: 6.00/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (20/20)

Worst predicted results: Swansea, Crystal Palace and (incredibly) Man Utd WINS (1/20). Seriously....only 1 of us (loyal fan Richard Verber) thought Man Utd would get a win at Anfield. The fall from grace never ceases to amaze.

Goal-swing: That'd be the Zaha winner for Palace - 7 players were put out by that goal

Everyone's results:

  

The leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 available weeks (21/30)

I tell you what - that gap at the top is narrowing. This is where all the drama is - maybe i should organise an auction for the TV rights for this game. I'm not greedy - I'd accept 0.5% of the value of the PL even though I feel this provides a better return of entertainment than that.

So, to the predictions for the next 2 matchdays:

Matchday 31:

Arsenal vs Liverpool

Everton vs Southampton

Leicester vs West Ham

Man Utd vs Aston Villa

Swansea vs Hull

WBA vs QPR

Chelsea vs Stoke

Burnley vs Spurs

Sunderland vs Newcastle

Crystal Palace vs Man City

Matchday 32:

Swansea vs Everton

Southampton vs Hull

Sunderland vs Crystal Palace

Spurs vs Aston Villa

WBA vs Leicester

West Ham vs Stoke

Burnley vs Arsenal

QPR vs Chelsea

Man Utd vs Man City

Liverpool vs Newcastle

Predos in the comments as per usual - or I'll be available on WhatsApp, Facebook and Twitter WiFi permitting.

Good luck guys & try to keep the Easter eggs in single digits!

S4M30: Reeled in

Well then. Somehow, Chelsea managed to extend their lead on a weekend where the top 2 clubs both managed to fox us all. The Arsenal train rolled on with a defeat of a West Ham side already looking towards pre-season and their likely new manager. The Pulis Palace revival continued apace, consigning QPR to yet another defeat in their relentless romp towards relegation. Sunderland look to be joining them, getting spanked by Aston Villa inside 45 mins. The writing has long been on the wall for Gus Poyet there, but losing to Tim Sherwood was the last straw...understandably. Dick Advocaat - he of Rangers fame aaaaaaaages ago will try to avert near certain disaster. My final pick to go down, Leicester did well and got a point. Unfortunately, it was one of their easier fixtures to get 3 in....they are rock bottom. Pulis beat Pulis (emeritus) with a trademark early goal then defend showing, and Liverpool kept their run going with a(nother) Henderson winner.

Everton remarkably won a game after a Europa league match - is that even allowed? Although, it was only Newcastle, so to be expected. Man Utd finally clicked into gear, only 7 months late to beat a Spurs side that may just be starting to peter out. And so to the shock result, and a deserved Burnley win. They gave Man City problems at the Etihad and deservedly beat a flat City here. Disappointing how bad they've been since the turn of the year really - if they'd played well, we may have an exciting title race on.

Anywho - as some of you may have seen, I've been writing quite a lot this week...so I'm typed out for now.

Let's get statty:

This week, 20 people played

Most predicted result: Man City & Crystal Palace WINS (20/20)

Most disputed result: Leicester vs Hull (8-6-6 split)

Highest odds: Feneley's mum (40287/1) - good to see you've reverted back to normal!

Highest odds excluding Feneley's mum: Me (5996/1)

Lowest odds: Feneley (963/1) - this week sees a Feneley Family double

Average odds: 8153/1

Best predictor: Lawro & Yo Abbott (7/10)

Worst predictor: Richard Verber (3/10)

Average score: 4.7/10

Best predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN (20/20)

Worst predicted results: Burnley WIN & Chelsea vs Southampton DRAW (0/20)

Goal-swing: Dusan Tadic's equaliser at the bridge - 19 thought Chelsea would win....we all lost out to that penalty

Everyone's results:

The leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 available weeks (20/29)

Gaon is being reeled in by the objective powers of maths - his lead is just 0.1 now....and Sam Ruback's doing the whole cycling slipstream thing looking to make a last minute dash for the line come May.

To this week's predos:

Man City vs WBA - MAN CITY

Aston Villa vs Swansea - ASTON VILLA

Newcastle vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Southampton vs Burnley - DRAW

Stoke vs Crystal Palace - STOKE

Spurs vs Leicester - SPURS

West Ham vs Sunderland - WEST HAM

Liverpool vs Man Utd - LIVERPOOL

Hull vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

QPR vs Everton - EVERTON

Total odds: 1092/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys

S4M29: Printemps arrives

This blog/game/idea came about partly as an unscientific exercise in perception. I'm not a psychologist so there's no real structure to this, and it's very much anecdotal (any psychologists who want to write this up for publication as a pilot study...holler at me...the CV needs pimping) but it's an interesting second line of inquiry that's arisen.

The first, obvious hypothesis was that we are all really knowledgeable about football and therefore should be able to accurately predict results each in a field that we have 'expert' knowledge.

Lawro, and latterly other statistical models were used as 'controls' - either as experts or as subjective models who should take the short term form bias out of the equation. This all sounds a bit sciency - so for those who haven't followed - basically, the idea was to see if we predict better than computers. Sort of. Actually it's harder to express simply.

Regardless, that's all going swimmingly, and I'm looking forward to a football-free summer when I'm going to sit down with all the data from the last 4 years and try and analyse some trends, both personal and group - hopefully there'll be some interesting finds.

The second thing that's arrived - which is much less specific to Impossibilitee - is the perception of time. This is an age old thing, and I'm certainly not looking to channel my inner-Einstein, although on occasion, I too can pull funny faces with terrible hair. Essentially, the last 5 paragraphs have been a long run up to this:

Why are there more 2 week breaks between my blogs now!

Sure it's cup season, but it seems like more than ever. I've been too serious above and my coffee hasn't yet penetrated my thinking space in my head, so I'm going to regress to a footballling mean and blame it on FIFA. The ducks*.

There are 2 matchdays' stats to get through, so let's get statty:

Matchday 27:

This week, 19 people played

Most predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)

Most disputed result: WBA vs Southampton (5-8-6 split)

Highest odds: Me (1601/1)

Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (160/1)

Average odds: 880/1

Best predictor: Euroclub Index, Feneley & Sam Ruback (5/8)

Worst predictor: Tarek (2/8)

Average score: 3.68/8

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)

Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN(0/19)

Goal-swing: Coutinho's winner for Liverpool against Man City - screwed 9 people.

In hindsight, I should have included Spurs vs QPR too. Soz folks.

Everyone's results to follow in a single graph below

Matchday 28:

This week, 16 people played

Most predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)

Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs WBA (5-2-9 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (8527/1)

Lowest odds: Andrew Feneley (1060/1)

Average odds: 3325/1

Best predictor: Fink tank (9/10)

Worst predictor: WhoScored.Com (5/10)

Average score: 6.29/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (16/16)

Worst predicted result: Aston Villa WIN(5/16)

Goal-swing: Rodwell's equaliser for Sunderland vs Hull - screwed 10 people. 

Everyone's results for both weeks:

Yeah I forgot ECI again. These people who don't leave their entire web history up for posterity....

The leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 available weeks (19/28)

To this week's predos:

Crystal Palace vs QPR - CRYSTAL PALACE

Arsenal vs West Ham - ARSENAL

Leicester vs Hull - HULL

Sunderland vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA

WBA vs Stoke - DRAW

Burnley vs Man City - MAN CITY

Chelsea vs Southampton - CHELSEA

Everton vs Newcastle - DRAW

Man United vs Spurs - SPURS

Swansea vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Total odds:  5996/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys!

*This is a family blog. Literally.

FA Cup 3: Quarter Finals

As we enter March, it's time to start focussing on trophies. Chelsea picked up the first competitive trophy of the season on Sunday, and one numpty dumpty referred to it as "Cup Final Day". Whilst this may be technically true, I think we all know that it's a day with a cup final on it, and not 'Cup Final Day', which belongs to a beautiful old girl in May, without stupid 3 handled tankard things.

I think the shocks of the 4th round hit home, as most teams looked to ensure they were not the next to suffer a comedy banana skin. Blackburn vs Stoke arguably the largest shock, as the Championship is notoriously unpredictable and Derby have a promotion challenge on their hands. There's no shock in Bradford beating Sunderland at home!

Now the Quarter finals are here, with each team only 1 match away from Wembley, will we see any more interesting results? A favourite has to drop given the pairing of Man Utd vs Arsenal (warm balls much?)...so Liverpool are arguably in pole position.

Let's do the stats for last round:

11 people played - boo Tharshan & Joe
Most predicted results: Arsenal & Man Utd WINS (11/11)
Most disputed result: WBA vs West Ham (6-5 split)

Best predictor: David Dinkin 6/8
Worst predictors: Steven, Joe, Tarek & Brad (3/8)

Average score: 4/8

Everyone's score:

Sam Ruback's still out in front. Josh Gaon's probably got too much to do...needs perfect scores from here on out or there's a new name on the trophy*

*No Impossibilitee FA Cup game trophy exists. Maybe in future. If you want a trophy, win the league. Josh Gaon....er....

To the QF predos:

Liverpool vs Blackburn - LIVERPOOL

Bradford vs Reading - BRADFORD

Aston Villa vs WBA - WBA

Man Utd vs Arsenal - ARSENAL (I'm not gonna win anyway...)

Good luck guys!