S4M12: Real Ma*******drid

I found meself in Seville last weekend (great city, highly recommended) and thought I'd find a nice bar to settle into on Saturday night to watch the Arsenal vs Man Utd game, followed by Sevilla's trip to the Camp Nou. I was wrong. Do you know how hard it is to find English football when either of the Big 2 in Spain are playing?

Arsenal vs Man Utd was bumped in every single bar except for some faux-Irish sports bar shite for Real Madrid vs Elbar. Seriously. For a fish-in-a-barrel kinda game. I predicted 5-0 to the bar guy with whom I had the longest argument in schoolboy Spanish (Quien el f**k es Elbar? Estamos en Sevilla....no estamos en Madrid) - it was 4-0 and I didn't watch any football. So silver lining, or I'd have had to have been arrested for throwing a mounted bull's head (yeah...that's very popular in matador territory) at the TV screen.

So I haven't got a clue what happened aside from a masochistic 10 minutes in front of MoTD when I got home. On that note, it's interesting (and some what literally incredible) that fewer people thought Man Utd would win away at Arsenal, than thought Crystal Palace would beat Liverpool at home.

So, bit of a cop out this week in terms of the above, but if anyone wants tips for a lovely weekend break in Andalucia, please get in touch.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs Sunderland (7-9-5 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley's Mum (79,546/1)
***Highest odds excluding AFM: Sam Ruback 6905/1 (New Category)***:
Lowest odds: Me 629/1
Average odds: 14, 115/1 (3209//1 excluding AFM)

Best predictor: Sam Ruback (9/10) - really well done - wait to see the Bar Chart later. High odds, and only ruined by his relentless gooner bias.
Worst predictors: Josh Daniels & Feneley 3/10
Average score: 4.9/10

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd WIN (1/21 - well done Doron)

Everyone's results:

Just further emphasises how much Sam stood out.

To the leaderboard (>2/3 or 9/12):

AFM's early season form is starting to look a little like beginner's luck..that's all I'm saying.

To this week's predictions:

WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Burnley vs Aston Villa - BURNLEY

Liverpool vs Stoke - DRAW

Man Utd vs Hull - MAN UTD

QPR vs Leicester - QPR

Swansea vs Crystal Palace - SWANSEA

West Ham vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Sunderland vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Southampton vs Man City - MAN CITY

Spurs vs Everton - DRAW

Total odds: 3200/1 (PaddyPower)

***Update: 01/12/2014 0851 ***

Matches for next midweek:

Burnley vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Leicester vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Man Utd vs Stoke - MAN UTD

Swansea vs QPR - SWANSEA

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa - CRYSTAL PALACE

WBA vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Arsenal vs Southampton - ARSENAL

Chelsea vs Spurs - CHELSEA

Everton vs Hull - EVERTON

Sunderland vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 453/1 (PaddyPower) - that felt pretty tough!

I'll complete mine later, and will try to send a reminder out on Sunday evening - though set your own too!

Good luck guys!

S4M11 (mk 2): I can count, I promise

Thank to the FIFA gods for the international break. Yeah, I mean that. It's given me opportunity to track back through the stats and find out why you're all so moany abut your scores.

In fairness, they were wrong. As Impossibilitee Overlord, the buck stops here. I apologise for any wrong doing. However, in true Blatterian style, I've decided to ignore the clamours for an independent review of the database, and done it myself.

Basically...er....week 5 was counted twice. As week 7. The real week 7 became week 8 and so on. Therefore, this week's post was initially titled "S4M12: somthing funny here", but then I noticed that the League table stated P11 for all teams. So I did my review. And have fixed the problem. Not a £16k watch involved. Although gifts are gratefully received - the more frivolous the better. Get in touch and I'll let you know how to send your bribes offerings signs-of-appreciation-that-have-no-role-in-trying-to-curry-favour.

Anyway - small amounts of blame attached to you all for failing to notice the incorrect counting of weeks. You can't whistle blow if you're not in a greenhouse with stones, as the saying should go.

Anyway, all fixed now so that's good.

The last weekend was too long ago to do a proper review - suffice it to say that Chelsea, Newcastle, Swansea and Burnley were happy and no-one else was. I refuse to allow Man Utd fans to be happy with a squeaky 1-0 win at home to Palace. My ball, my rules.

Let's get statty:

This week, 23 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (23/23)
Most disputed result: Burnley vs Hull (8-6-9 split)

Highest odds*: Josh Daniels 2,542/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 760/1
Average odds*: 1,563/1

* AFM's odds have been discounted due to them being >100x the next highest odds whilst only being 2 results different & those are games that the bookies definitely did not put those kind of odds on. I have presumed this is erroneous.  A further investigation is taking place, and this will be amended should I see proof of those odds being offered by a UK licensed bookmaker and not AFD (who may be a UK licensed bookmaker, but then I want to see his licence too. And working out).

Best predictor: Doron Salomon (6/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of people (3/10)
Average score: 4.09/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: QPR vs Man City DRAW & Stoke WIN (1/23 - congrats to Josh Daniels & Adrian Daniels respectively)

Everyone's scores:

Now for the new, amended leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 of weeks (8/11):

So the first thing to note is how most people's scores have increased. This is due to Week 5 having been a bad week for most. The next, is the drop from Yo Abbott & AFM. Doron has also edged closer to his usual spot. Former champs ECI are slowly clawing back the deficit too. No huge changes elsewhere, although Verbinho has snuck up into 3rd place. Don't think I didn't notice. Hot on his tail are 3 statistical behemoths however. And Sam, Charlie & Jonny.

To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs WBA - CHELSEA
Everton vs West Ham - DRAW
Leicester vs Sunderland - LEICESTER
Man City vs Swansea - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Stoke vs Burnley - STOKE
Arsenal vs Man Utd - ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Hull vs Spurs - SPURS
Aston Villa vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Total odds: 629/1 (PaddyPower)

S4M11: Predictably Unpredictable

Howdy friends,

So - looking at the results from last weekend with a bit of distance, can any of us say we're genuinely surprised at how that panned out? Maybe the Sunderland win was unexpected....but there are a lot of dross teams and really anything could happen - it's hardly like Palace have been flying (or soaring....I'll grab my coat.) Other than that - you'd look at all those results and think...'yep'.

So why did we do predictably average as a group? Are we all so used to the zany that we're now outfoxed by the double-bluff? One day, when I've got more time, I'm going to delve deeper into my statistical treasure chest, accumulated over the last 4 years - draw out some of the interesting patterns, write a book, sell loads (mainly to you guys to give as christmas presents to your secret santas) and buy a desert island. That's basically the only way that I can see to understand why random stuff happens - the desert island is a benefit that is just unavoidable.

Sidetracked somewhat - what else happened this week? Moaninho turned his act towards the Chelsea fans in a superbly ironical experiment to see just what happens when you bite the hand that doesnt really feed you when you're paid by a billionaire. What happens is utter indifference and a half-arsed comedown later on. Also, in happier news, Jonas Gutierrez has been given the all clear from his testicular cancer - which segues nicely onto my little bit of charity begging.

This year, for the first time, I'm Movembering. I've never really thought of it as a worthy challenge before, but read something last year (which I forgot to favourite and have subsequently lost) about why it's actually more difficult than you think - so yeah...now I'm simultaneously hairier and shaving more than ever before. I'm doing it more to raise awareness of Men's Health issues - mainly testicular and prostate cancer & mental health issues - but if you have a few quid sitting in a bank account looking lonely, we'd love your support. You can catch my work team here - http://uk.movember.com/team/1684649

Right, enough of that...let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
The most popular predicted results were Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (21/21)
The most disputed result was Newcastle vs Liverpool (4-7-9 split)

The highest odds were (shocker) Andrew Feneley's Mum (12, 574/1)
The lowest odds were Josh Daniels (genuine shocker) 2002/1
Average odds: 6446/1

Highest scorer: WhoScored.com, Eli Daniels, David Dinkins, Menachem Grunewald, Richard Verber and the super special guest this week - Rachel Riley. I didn't meet her in the flesh, unlikely Sir Bobby, but one day, she'll reply to my barrage of fan mail (6/10)
Lowest scorer: Tarek Najm (2/10)
Average score: 4.67/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN (2/21)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 of weeks....or 8/11

Big gaps from 1-2 and bottom-1 from bottom.

To this week's predos:

Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Burnley vs Hull - HULL
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Leicester - SOUTHAMPTON
West Ham vs Aston Villa - WEST HAM
QPR vs Man City - MAN CITY
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Stoke - SPURS
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - DRAW

Total odds: 1103/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys.

S4M10: Singing the Praises of Allardici

Typing that title made me feel a wee bit queasy. However, the Big Sam Walrus man has now beaten both Liverpool & Man City this season - and arguably deserved both those wins. Someone wrote into the F365 mailbox this week detailing his record since he was at Bolton, and generally, he's done pretty well once he's taken a season or 2 to stabilise. The big question is whether this is intentional, or a stroke of luck by having the temptation of Andy Carroll taken away from him. We'll never know, because he's one of those managers ('Arry as another prime example) who take the credit when it's going well and shift the blame when it's not....and that bugs me, so I hope for the latter.

What else? Well late goals at Old Trafford and the Hawthorns saw draws there, whilst QPR won for the first time since a long time, and Newcastle continued their revival with a good win at the Lane. I was driving home from work when they were playing and the commentary went something like this:

"Newcastle get us under way in the second half with Remy Caballa, a second half substituuuuuu.......*background roar*....they've equalised! 7 seconds on the clock"

I went something like this:

Seriously....I swear if Spurs didn't exist, someone would have to invent them. Also my car is not a massive truck.

Sunderland didn't score loads of own goals this week, but they might as well have done, losing 2-0 to Alexis Sanchez & 9 other yellow statues. Balotelli did his shtick of playing well enough for a neutral to think he was alright, whilst contriving to miss a great chance to wind up the Scouser Keyboard Army. Southampton kept up their worryingly good form and Swansea & Everton both won their bankers.

All in all, a nice fun weekend - less mental than I'd have hoped for though.

Let's get statty:

This week, 22 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (22/22)
Most disputed result: QPR vs Aston Villa (9-4-9 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels 4407/1
Lowest odds: Feneley 963/1
Average odds: 2007/1

Best predictors: Quite a few (6/10 - see below)
Worst predictor - Lawro - horror show 1/10
Average score: 4.50/10

Best predicted result: Southampton WIN (20/22)
Worst predicted results: West Ham & Newcastle WINS (0/22)

Everyone's results:

Er...ignore JC & JT. They didn't play, not play & get 0.

To the leaderboard now, for those who have played >2/3 of weeks or 7/10:

Lawro's shocker sees him drop into second place. There are a few minor movements elsewhere, but 2 new entries...so let's get everyone onto the leaderboard this year!

To this week's predos:

Newcastle vs Liverpool - DRAW

Arsenal vs Burnley - ARSENAL

Chelsea vs QPR - CHELSEA

Everton vs Swansea - DRAW

Hull vs Southampton - DRAW

Leicester vs WBA - LEICESTER

Stoke vs West Ham - STOKE

Man City vs Man Utd - MAN CITY

Aston Villa vs Spurs - SPURS

Crystal Palace vs Sunderland - DRAW

Total odds: 4674/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

S4M9: There's always one...

So I'm not actually bothered enough to do the research to substantiate this claim, but it seems that every season, there's always one team who everyone constantly overrates. Chelsea previously under AVB, Man Utd last season and this season, to my immense personal sadness, it's the turn of Arsenal.

Last week, all 21 players went for an Arsenal win, About 3 minutes away from 100% being about as wrong as can be (although technically all still wrong, but there are degrees of right and wrong...right?). What else happened? Well I reckon this was the weekend of the refs - the Hull equaliser being a good place to start. Then we had the debacle at Stoke (50% - Shawcross was a pen, Moses wasn't), then the hoary old refs-biased-towards-the-big-teams thing from Warnock - both red cards correct in that game in my opinion. Similarly, all 4 penalties were fair calls in my view at the Etihad in the Aguero show (surely the best umlauted player in the division, although I'm sure some clever clogs will point out that it's not an umlaut, it's a diphthong but whatevs, we're all just slaves to the double dot).

Big Sam is rolling back the years to when Bolton were good and not totally thuggish, it's fair to say that Roy Keane's beard had semi-Samsonite powers (not Sansomite, which is more alcohol related) and this bright new Dutch dawn somewhere in Salford is yet to fully bloom. Newcastle also seem to have won for the first time since Jackie Milburn, suggesting that Leicester used all their good play this year in one second half come back.

Comedy points this week go to the Sunderland defence (and Mannone - shockers for about 3 goals) whilst the award for Best Mimicry of an historic Cup final goes to QPR & Liverpool* for their improv performance of the 1979 Five-Minute final, but even better, A corker of an own goal from Caulker at the end. Sorry.

*shared - like the 1991 charity shield.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played.
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN(21/21)
Most disputed result: Burnley vs West Ham (3-10-8 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley's Mum (obvs) 59, 672/1
Lowest odds: Me 619/1
Average odds: 9287/1 (890/1 without the anomalous entry above)

Best predictors: Er...lots of people (7/10 - see graph)
Worst predictor: Andrew Feneley's Mum (2/10)
Average score: 5.71/10

Best predicted results: Man City, Chelsea & Liverpool WINS (19/21)
Worst predicted result: Arsenal vs Hull DRAW (0/21)

Everyone's scores:

To the league table:

There was a lot of guff last week about how your scores didn't make mathematical sense. To this, I say one thing - does anyone actually, really understand maths? Though not. It's all made up anyway. So yeah - assume this is correct and if it's not, suck it up, 'cos you're still above me (unless you're not in which case, complain away).

Lawro continues his storming start, ahead of FA Cup Gaon. The quiet man of Impossibilitee sits 3rd, like a crocodile at the watering hole, waiting for his chance, along with perennial good-predictor Dinks. Andrew Feneley's Mum still (!?!?!?!?!?) sits in mid-table, just ahead of Yo Abbott, whilst my closest male relatives form a lovely number pattern (.44, .33, .22 - cool). EuroClubIndex sits joint bottom with a horror show so far this year.

In conclusion, kids, with ~25% of the season gone, Lawro > Science.

To this week's predos:

West Ham vs Man City - MAN CITY
Liverpool vs Hull - DRAW
Southampton vs Stoke - SOUTHAMPTON
Sunderland vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
WBA vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Swansea vs Leicester - SWANSEA
Burnley vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Newcastle - SPURS
Man Utd vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
QPR vs Aston Villa - DRAW

Total odds: 3136/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys.

S4M8: International Love

Well hello there friends. Nice break?

The formality that is qualifying for Euro 2016 had meant we've had a break weekend - and the casualty of this weekend is EuroClubIndex who have removed their predos from the website for last weekend. Therefore, they don't have an entry for M7, unless someone knows how to find caches pages on the internet.

The papers seem to have spent the last few days talking about the decision to rest Sterling when he said he was tired, instead of pointing out that, comparative to most other countries, we're actually doing pretty well. Drama sells papers etc etc, but it's pretty tiresome.

Going back to the PL, Man Utd seem to have hit their stride with 2 consecutive home wins. I can just hear Surrey starting to warm up their cocky notes again. City & Liverpool also looked scratchy whilst picking up maximum points and Leicester & Swansea's bright starts seem to have faltered. In London, MoPo beat RoKo in the Spurs/Saints grudge match, whilst the inevitable happened at Stamford Bridge - a 2-0 win for JoMo and his band of horrible sewer dwellers. However, it was, in my opinion, not as bad as the scoreline points out - and with a different ref (not saying he was biased, just crap), my optimistic shout for a point could have come true. I accept that we wouldn't have had the penalty for handball as no-one handballed it, in the sameway that no-one played a through ball for Diego Costa. Ya dig? *Sob*

Let's get statty:

This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (19/19)
Most disputed result: Spurs vs Southampton (6-8-5 split)

Highest odds: Sam Ruback 3917/1
Lowest odds: Doron (!!!!) 866/1 - the reason you were so different to me is the 2 games you scored higher than me!
Average odds: 2101/1

Best predictors: Lawro & Josh Gaon (9/10)
Worst predictors: er...me and Josh Daniels (4/10). I get a moral point for not predicting what I actually thought though...

Best predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Leicester vs Burnley DRAW (2/19)

Everyone's results:

I know ECI are still there but just ignore them.

Leaderboard (>2/3 weeks or 6/8):

Lawro returns to the top as we pass the 20% stage. Could he be the 1st to win 2 trophies? Newbies Andrew Feneley's Mum & Yo Abbott sit solidly in the mid-table I ain't doing so great, but nothing compares to the Moyesian descent of reigning champions ECI (who may have inadvertently suffered from the delayed posting. Oopsie).

To this week's predos: 

Man City vs Spurs - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Hull - ARSENAL
Burnley vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Everton vs Aston Villa - DRAW
Newcastle vs Leicester - NEWCASTLE
Southampton vs Sunderland - SOUTHAMPTON
QPR vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL (cricket score)
Stoke vs Swansea - STOKE
WBA vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Total odds: 619/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck chums, I'm off to ensure that I get the ECI predos in for this week.

S4M7: Autumn's here

My apologies for the brevity of this blog (although some may prefer it that way) - I've had a John  Terry of a week at work and my hands and brain have gone on strike.

I'd just like to state that I knew it was going to be like this when I failed to place my usual array of bets before the matchday started, and subsequently found nearly every game going as I'd picked it. Mr Murphy can stick his law where the son don't shine.

Anyway - Derby day saw no winners either in North London or Liverpool. Chelsea mourinho'd Aston Villa, WBA scored 46% of their season quota of goals in 1 game, and Alan Pardew predictably lost (again) and didn't lose his job. In other news, 2 contenders for goal of the season ensured value for money at St Mary's, Palace got a pretty tidy result against a Leicester side high on confidence after beating Man Utd in their last outing, and Man City gave a typical City performance of the last year - irresistible going forward, irresistant at the back. Might have made that word up. Finally, Man Utd looked to have blown their cobwebs away, but then Rooney did a Rooney and they ended up clinging on for dear life, like a cat on a motivational poster. I've ignored the other game 'cos it was too dull to warrant attention on MOTD and I'm now a consumer, not a fan, hmmm-kay?

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea & Man City WINS (21/21)
Most disputed result: Sunderland vs Swansea (6-8-7 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (20,080/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (560/1)
Average odds: 6070/1

Highest predictors: Me, Charlie R, Sam R & Will O'D (8/10)
Worst predictors: Nathan Daniels & Joe 'Yo' (seriously taken to that app eh?) Abbott (4/10)
Average scores: 6.05/10

Best predicted results: Chelsea & Man City WINS (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Palace WIN & Arsenal vs Spurs DRAW (3/10)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 of available matches (5/6):

Loads of movement at the bottom - not so much at the top, although last season's champion, EuroClub Index is doing a Man Utd 2013-2104 of a start. I'm sure they'll recover it though....

To this week's predos:

Hull vs Crystal Palace - HULL
Leicester vs Burnley - LEICESTER
Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL
Sunderland vs Stoke - DRAW
Swansea vs Newcastle - SWANSEA
Aston Villa vs Man City - MAN CITY
Man Utd vs Everton - DRAW
Spurs vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
Chelsea vs Arsenal - DRAW (positive mental attitude)
West Ham vs QPR - WEST HAM

Total odds: 3715/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!