Matchday 31: Frustration at the First

Last week was the 68th week of this game, and around 1000 "bets" have been made in that time. No-one has successfully predicted the result of an entire round of fixtures yet. It shouldn't matter which matches one gets wrong therefore, but it does. There is a gut-wrenching feeling when the first match of the weekend comes in wrong, and all the hard work* of planning, choosing and predicting goes to waste.

Of course, it may be worse to have got them all correct going in to the last match of the weekend, only for that to foil you but I haven't been in that position yet. Maybe this week, will be the week.

*gut feeling

Let's get statty:

This week, 19 people played
The most popular predictions were: Man Utd & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
The most disputed prediction was: Wigan vs Newcastle (6-6-7 SPLIT)

Highest odds: Me (5494/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (1079/1)
Average odds: 3532/1

Best predictor: Yanik Joshi & Sam Ruback (6/10)
Worst predictor: Stan Collymore, Nick Collins, Josh Daniels, Tarek Najm, Menachem Grunewald & David Dinkin
Average score: 4/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Fulham WIN (0/19)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard, and there is bugger all to see here. Nick maintains his slender lead, whilst at the bottom, the only position change is Doron leapfrogging Tarek. I, obviously, now consider myself above this petty squabbling and have my sights firmly set on (lower) mid-table. 

To this week's predictions:

Sunderland vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Arsenal vs Reading - ARSENAL
Man City vs Newcastle - MAN CITY
Southampton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Swansea vs Tottenham - DRAW
West Ham vs  WBA - WEST HAM
Wigan vs Norwich - WIGAN
Everton vs Stoke - EVERTON
Aston Villa vs Liverpool - DRAW
Fulham vs QPR - FULHAM

Total odds: 818/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys.

Matchday 30: This season's flying by

After a hiatus for the FA Cup, it's back to business in the game that all talk about. To clarify, I didn't post a blog last week because there were only 6 games played, and that's a significantly reduced number. As we get as a group, 40-50% right each week, I didn't want to include a week that most likely would massively skew the stats. That said, this is all about the democracy, so if you think that in future seasons, we should play regardless of number of games, then let me know in the comments with your predictions.

Anywho, let's look at the stats from Matchday 28:

This week, 19 people played.
The most popular predictions were: Everton & Man Utd WINS (18/19)
The most disputed prediction was: Spurs vs Arsenal (4-5-9 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels, 11,203/1
Lowest odds: Will O'Doherty 1204/1
Average odds: 4497/1

Best predictor: Richard Verber (8/10) - shaking off his rotten form in style
Worst predictor: Doron Salomon (2/10)
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Everton & Man Utd WINS (18/19)
Worst predicted result: West Ham WIN (1/19 - Congrats Josh Daniels)

Everyone's scores:

A warm Impossibilitee welcome to David Dinkin, playing his first week. Hope to see you become a regular for the remainder of this season and into next.

To the leaderboard now, and as always, only those who have played >2/3 of available games (19/28) qualify. Big movement at the top, where if Nick had only waited one more week for plaudits, he could have had them for a real reason...as it is, I feel that too much praise leads to complacency, so we'll gloss over the new leader and look to the foot of the table, where Doron sinks to a season low position, just off the bottom. Verber's excellent score sees him leapfrog Yanik midtable too.

Nick's lead is a fragile one however, and there looks to be a real battle for first place this season, in contrast to last years runaway winner. Long may it continue.

To this week's predictions:

Everton vs Man City - MAN CITY
Aston Villa vs QPR - QPR
Southampton vs Liverpool - SOUTHAMPTON
Stoke vs WBA - DRAW
Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Man Utd vs Reading - MAN UTD
Sunderland vs Norwich - NORWICH
Spurs vs Fulham - SPURS
Chelsea vs West Ham - CHELSEA
Wigan vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Total odds: 5494/1 (PaddyPower)

Predictions in the comments as per usual. Good luck guys

FA Cup Quarter Finals - Round 3

After a bit of a disorganised schedule (mainly Chelsea's fault), all the fixtures for the 4th Round & 5th Round have now been completed. I thought I'd update you all on the state of play as it stands. For those of you who don't play in the PL game, I normally do some very basic stats and a graph of results, so I'll try to do the same here, although it's not quite the same.

4th Round:

As we know, 15 people played.
The most popular results were Arsenal, Middlesborough, Norwich, Man Utd, Chelsea & Liverpool WINS (15/15)
The most disputed was Derby vs Blackburn - a 9-6 split.

The best predictor was Josh Gaon with 10/16
The worst was Doron Salomon with 5/16

The best predicted results were the Arsenal, Middlesborough, Man Utd & Chelsea WINS (15/15)
The worst predicted were the Luton & Oldham WINS (0/15)

Everyone's scores:

5th Round


15 people played.
The most popular results were Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (15/15)
The most disputed were Luton vs Millwall & MK Dons vs Barnsley - a 5-10 & 10-5 split respectively.

The best predictors were Me & Gaj Thiru with 7/8
The worst were Tarek Najm, Josh Daniels & Sam Ruback with 4/8

The best predicted result was the Chelsea WIN (15/15)
The worst predicted was the Blackburn WIN (0/15)

Everyone's scores:

So now to the overall standings, after 2 rounds. Remember, the rounds were weighted to reflect the number of games involved in each round (and slightly biased with respect to Round 4 as the draw was already known). Round 4 is weighted to 40% of the overall mark, and Round 5 weighted to 32%.

Therefore, the standings look as follows:

Still around 30% of the points still to play for, so by no means over just yet.

Now to Round 6 (the Quarter Finals):

My predictions for the winner of each tie are as follows:

Everton vs Wigan - EVERTON

Man City vs Barnsley - MAN CITY

Millwall vs Blackburn - MILLWALL

Man Utd vs Chelsea - MAN UTD

 

No PL games this week for those who were wondering, only 6 games being played and it's too complex to factor in the caught up games, as well as being unfair due to changes in fitness & form between the prediction and the match itself.

 

Good luck guys, and can the 3 who have yet to pay please do so ASAP - send me a message and we'll sort something out

Matchday 27 Results & Matchday 28 Predos

Folks, if I were a well known bookmaker, I'd be paying out on the man with the reddest nose in all of Cheshire cracking open a bottle of 55yr old Janet Sheed Reserve come May. I'm not entirely sure what's happened over at Middle Eastlands, but it's kinda ruined the last few months, as it's highly unlikely that we'll see a repeat of the the drama of last season. Even the relegation dogfight (a strange noun that, considering the skill and bravery required by the pilots...surely a toddlers' pushing match would be more appropriate) is doing it's best to be a damp squib, with QPR surely resigned to their fate, and Villa & Reading also scrabbling around in the dust. Fortunately, over at Stamford Bridge, they've decided to spice up the contest to see which London club can fail to get into the Champions' League. This weekend sees the North London Derby - a big enough game normally, but for the second time in 2 seasons, a potentially critical game. For their part, Chelsea will be looking to take advantage of the fact that at least one side will be dropping points.

The chasing pack seem to have fallen away a bit recently, so it looks like this, and potential Wigan revival may be all there is left to focus on for the remainder of the season. Any suggestion of City losing second place is, I believe, beyond optimistic and probably bordering on fanciful.

Anywho, shall we focus on last week's very high scoring stats:

Last week, 18 people played

Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Man Utd WINS (18/18)

Most disputed result: Norwich vs Everton (4-8-6 split)

Longest odds: Doron (again) 3533/1

Shortest odds: Will O'Doherty 698/1

Average odds: 1723/1

Best predictors: Lawro, ECI, Nick Collins, Josh Daniels, Sam Ruback & Doron Salomon (7/9)

Worst predictor: Richard Verber (4/9)

Average score: 6/9 - the highest ever week by % and the 2nd highest by raw score, although more impressive as double the number of participants from the first placed week (last season)

Best predicted results: Arsenal & Man Utd WINS (18/18)

Worst predicted results: Norwich & Wigan WINS (4/18)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard, and as usual, you have to have played >2/3 of available weeks (or 19/27). Quite a lot of movement, with swaps all over the place. Nick has been pestering me for weeks to point out that he is the top scoring "real person", so gold star for him. Still plenty of time to hunt down Lawro and the statistical powerhouse that is WhoScored.com.

To this week's predictions:

Chelsea vs WBA - CHELSEA

Everton vs Reading - DRAW

Man Utd vs Norwich - MAN UTD

Southampton vs QPR - SOUTHAMPTON

Stoke vs West Ham - DRAW

Sunderland vs Fulham - DRAW

Swansea vs Newcastle - SWANSEA

Wigan vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Spurs vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Aston Villa vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 2948/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys, let's hope for another big week!

Matchday 27 Predictions & Catchup results

The trouble with FA Cup weeks is that my memory doesn't permit me to reflect back far enough to write anything about the last round of matches, and certainly not anything interesting or original.

So, on that note, I'll say nothing and get down to some figures:

This week, 25 people played (a record I believe)
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (23/25)
Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs West Ham (9-9-7 split)

Longest odds: Doron Salomon 14,473/1
Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 821/1
Average odds: 4844/1

Best predictor: EuroClub Index (7/10)
Worst Predictors: Eli Daniels & RG (whoever you are) (2/10)
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (23/25)
Worst predicted results: Southampton & WBA WINS (0/25)

Everyone's results:

Stan Collymore is the latest expert addition, at least until he blocks me again on Twitter...

To the leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 of available games (or 18/26). A few swaps, but no change at the top:

To this week's predictions then:

Fulham vs Stoke -  FULHAM

Arsenal vs Aston Villa - ARSENAL

Norwich vs Everton - DRAW

QPR vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Reading vs Wigan - READING

WBA vs Sunderland - WBA

Man City vs Chelsea - DRAW

Newcastle vs Southampton - NEWCASTLE

West Ham vs Spurs - SPURS

Total odds: 1289/1 off 9 games (Liverpool/Swansea was midweek and not counted).

Apologies my predos weren't up earlier. I was rather tired when I wrote the post and my head stopped working. 

Good luck y'all

#2: FA Cup 5th Round

So the 5th Round of the FA Cup is upon us, and as such, it's time for a few more predictions. As a reminder, we're looking for which team progresses to the next round from the tie, so "draw" is not an outcome, unlike in the Premier League game. For those matches where there is a replay, feel free to put an "or" pending the outcome of the replay - unfortunately, Brentford vs Chelsea is being played at the same time as the other 5th round ties, so I can't update that before the matches are played, but I'll update the Huddersfield/Leicester side as soon as that match is played this week.

I'll also post the standings after the 4th round matches are completed this weekend, but it seems silly to do it before the round is complete.

My predictions are as follows:

Luton vs Millwall - MILLWALL
Arsenal vs Blackburn - ARSENAL
MK Dons vs Barnsley - BARNSLEY
Oldham vs Everton - EVERTON
Man City vs Leeds - MAN CITY
Huddersfield vs Wigan - WIGAN
Man Utd vs Reading - MAN UTD
Middlesborough vs Brentford/Chelsea - CHELSEA (MIDDLESBOROUGH IF BRENTFORD PROGRESS IN R4)

Can I ask the few people who have yet to pay their £2 entry fee to do so ASAP; those who've spoken to me already can ignore this message.

Good luck guys, I'll update this post on Wednesday after the Huddersfield/Leicester match.

Matchday 24 & 25 results & Matchday 26 Predos: 2/3 of the way through

I've written a few times previously about my indifference to international football, but I hate the gym, and one way of making exercise more tolerable is watching TV whilst going. So yeah, I watched the second half. Sue me. Highlights: 1) Wilshere 2) Cahill's "Oh ****" face 3) Julio Cesar's dive for the cameras for Lampard's winner 4) No sound so ITV's gruesome twosome couldn't raise my blood pressure anymore than the running/rowing already was (yeah, proper athlete me. Don't be jel).

Anyway, I thought that although Brazil were far from vintage, Los Blancos didn't look too bad, and certainly with the aforementioned Jack in tandem with Stevie G & Tommy C, there was much more dynamism to the midfield than anything seen recently.

This, however, is a primarily a Premier League site, so let's do the statty biz from the last week or so:

Matchday 24:


This week, 16 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man United WIN (16/16)
Most disputed result: Sunderland vs Swansea (4-7-5 split)

Longest odds: Doron Salomon 9307/1
Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 623/1
Average odds: 3026/1

Best predictors: Nick Collins & WhoScored.com (6/10)
Worst Predictors: Me, EuroClub Index, Josh Daniels, Yanik Joshi, Sam Ruback and Hesham Zakai (3/10)
Average score: 4/10

Best predicted result: Man United WIN (16/16)
Worst predicted result: Stoke vs Wigan DRAW (0/16)

Everyone's results:

Matchday 25:

This week, 20 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man United & Everton WINS (19/20)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Swansea (6-7-7 split)

Longest odds: Jonathan Chernick 14,853/1
Shortest odds: Sam Ruback 1704/1
Average odds: 5212/1

Best predictor: Will O'Doherty (6/10)
Worst Predictor: Hesham Zakai (2/10 - er, welcome back....)
Average score: 4/10

Best predicted result: Man United WIN (19/20)
Worst predicted result: Everton vs Aston Villa DRAW (1/20 - well done Feneley)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, and a reminder that only those who have played in >2/3 of matches so far this season are eligible. That means, that if you ain't on it yet, with potentially honourable exception (WOD), you won't make the leaderboard this season - however, I'd still stay involved. Why, you ask? Well, there is always the best-of-the-rest table, that remains a total surprise until the end of the season, and more importantly, habit-forming behaviour only takes a few weeks to cement. So, by playing for the rest of the season, you get into a solid routine, ready to take on the big boys (hence all the gymming) next season.

With all that, 2 leaps this week, with Sam losing his place to the EuroClub Index, and me overtaking Chernick on games played!

To this weeks predos:

Spurs vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Chelsea vs Wigan - CHELSEA

Norwich vs Fulham - DRAW

Stoke vs Reading - STOKE

Sunderland vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Swansea vs QPR - SWANSEA

Southampton vs Man City - MAN CITY

Aston Villa vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Man Utd vs Everton - DRAW

Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL

Total odds: 3858/1 (PaddyPower)

Predictions in the comments as per usual, good luck guys