Thursday, 8 February 2018

S7M27: The comeback is on :-P

I have an exam next week and so have been a little distracted. On call over the weekend too, so can't promise an update then either.  I've sort of done the stats but not there for publication just yet so the classic placeholder blog until I can get round to uploading it properly.

Just quickly though - Raheem Sterling's miss :D :D :D

Here's another picture of Giroud to tide you over

Image result for giroud chelsea watford

He's been happier...

This week's predos:

Spurs vs Arsenal - DRAW
Everton vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Stoke vs Brighton - STOKE
Swansea vs Burnley - SWANSEA
West Ham vs Watford - WATFORD
Man City vs Leicester - Man City
Huddersfield vs Bournemouth - BOURNEMOUTH
Newcastle vs Man Utd  -MAN UTD
Southampton vs Liverpool - DRAW
Chelsea vs WBA - CHELSEA

Good luck guys. Check back for the actual blog at some point over the weekend/Monday

Thursday, 1 February 2018

S7M26: Blue Moon Rising + Transfer window SLAMS SHUT

Placeholder blog - check back tonight/tomorrow for my thoughts on the midweek games & the transfer window!

Pro-tip: there's nothing original as usual

Here's a lovely picture of Giroud to tide you over until then

Image result for olivier giroud

Edit:

As if I was going to delete Oli

So we've entered February and what's really changed?

City - dominant. Defensive woes (all things relative eh? - splash £60m on France's answer to John Stones. Comfortable win midweek.

Man Utd - Looking to inject some fury and unpredictability with Alexis - but at what cost? Can't imagine Pogba et al will not want wage parity, which is reportedly 5% of their turnover solely on Alexis. 3 or 4 in the squad, plus the attendant rise in "2nd tier" player salaries and you can see some big changes as they try to keep pace with the noisy neighbours. They can't pull clear on the pitch though, with 2 recent Martial winners papering over poor performances, before a disembowelling (figuratively) by Spurs

Liverpool - lost arguably their Talisman (though Salah has a fair crack at that title this season) but spent big money to sort out their defence. Liverpool are just Arsenal but Northern however, so their issues aren't personnel related but systemic, as shown by the drastic improvement in performance since VVD signed.

Chelsea are what happens when people stop pulling in the same direction - this squad is the work of different visions (Mourinho, Conte, Emenalo, that Marina director etc) and frankly you can see that Conte is phoning it in at times. Was starting to thaw towards them since Terry, Mourinho etc left, but after stealing Oli, I'm glad to state that I would happily burn the entirety of Stamford Bridge to the ground. Cracking work to get Barkley for £15m given the homegrown status alone is probably worth that. The English Tiemoue Bakayoko they call him.

Spurs - actually pretty stable. Ticking along in the league, Moura an exciting signing. The 2 clouds on the horizon are the Real Madrid interest in Poch (which he may well turn down but would have to have cojones gigantes to do so) and the fact that their stadium is apparently behind schedule and might not be ready for the new season, thus extending their stay at Wembley...

Arsenal - champions already. Of the basketcase trophy. Losing Alexis is a blow but expected. Sentimentally difficult to see him go to Utd, but clearly a good outcome in 1) getting Mkhitaryan and 2) freeing up wages for Ozil's new deal. This was supplemented by the loss of around 15 first team players, leaving us with only double-barrelled academy graduates for back up. We've also cleverly sent Giroud over to Chelsea ("Go West" we said. Geddit) to saboutage their season and try and mean that we have a chance at top 4 if we remember that the point of football is to score more goals than the opponent, not have more difficult surnames to spare.

Burnley - season's regressed to the mean slightly. Have invested in Spurs reject wingers

Leicester - season's taken a turn for the exicting with the RESISTANCE to the Mancunian petrodollar. Went predictably well as the rest of the season being a game of "where's Riyad?" Lost to...

Everton - the Allardici renaissance continues with panache. £45m on strikers & Mangala adds both the sharp end of the spear & the grunt needed to thrust it deep into the thorax of....well, Leicester and Burnley really. Shipped out a load of unwanted players and managed to end the Barkley tedium. Walcott's first goals midweek got them the W.

Bournemouth - couple of big wins. Felt a bit stale before but may be reinvigorated to ride Everton's coat-tails into...upper midtable.

Watford - New manager their big news. Same results though

20 clubs. Bloody long list that. I'm all for going down to 18.

West Ham: Done a racist (shocker) to enliven things up now they're safe

Crystal Palace: I'm sure stuff happened but regretting my decision to write a blog like this now

Newcastle: The great white hope got on her takeover horse and rode off into the distance. The living embodiment of treading water.

Brighton: Ulloa back. That's emosh. They need to kick on  a little

Stoke: New manager, bounce arrived. Bit of money spent, never heard of any of them

Huddersfield: would it be fair to suggest that they are following the time honoured tradition of prudently preparing for next season in the championship?

Anyone noticed that I've swapped from hyphens to colons?

Southampton :-: They're very low in the table, aren't they? Sold VVD, bought a striker. Yoshida will save the day

Swansea: New manager, bounce. Still a long way to go for them

WBA: New manager, no bounce. Will be hoping for 10 Sturridge goal to save them and he'll be hoping to make a late dash for the World Cup squad.

That was a lot more tedious than planned. Won't be making that mistake again

Let's get statty:

19 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal, Chelsea & Man City WINS (19/19)
Most disputed result: Newcastle vs Burnley (6-7-6 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon (2278/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 794/1
Average odds: 1536/1

Best predictor: David Silverman (5/10)
Worst predictor: Josh Daniels (1/10)
Average score: 3.53/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth & Swansea WINS (0/19)

Everyone's results:



Leaderboard (>2/3; 17/25)



Predos:


Burnley vs Man City - MAN CITY
Bournemouth vs Stoke - BOURNEMOUTH
Brighton vs West Ham - BRIGHTON
Leicester vs Swansea - SWANSEA
Man Utd vs Huddersfield - MAN UTD
WBA vs Southampton - DRAW
Arsenal vs Everton - ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle - CRYSTAL PALACE
Liverpool vs Spurs - SPURS
Watford vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Good luck guys

Monday, 29 January 2018

S7M25: Delayed Gratification

It's the little things in life that keep it smiling. First you get Man City losing to Liverpool - that glow has yet to abate. But then Liverpool lose to Swansea, which just serves to make the whole exercise funnier.

Spurs drew with Southampton which meant that the Great Arsenal Comeback started with an Alexis-less win  over Crystal Palace. Nacho Monreal scored all 4 goals, cured cancer & sorted out world peace before being subbed halfway through the first half to go and play the harp at an old age home. True story. Only time will tell as to whether this will be a fruitful chase or not.

Speaking of drugs cheat Alexis, Man Utd showed why they're paying him the GDP of Polynesia a week as they laboured to a win over Burnley. Martial scoring his 2nd delightful goal in as many games.

Easy wins for Man City, Chelsea and er....Stoke (new manager bounce?) kept the world spinning on it's axis. Leicester signed Silva's death warrant at Watford, edging the Pozzo's ever closer to Doug Ellis' record.

Moyes & Allardyce continued their 2 man reprisal of "Old Dog - Old Tricks" (you must see it before it ends, superb) with home draws. Both "doing a job" I suppose.

Let's get statty:

This week 19 people played. Technically it was 20 but I've mislaid my bit of paper with ECI's results which have now disappeared off their website so until I find it again....19.

Most popular predicted results: Man City & Spurs WINS (19/19)
Most disputed result: Stoke vs Huddersfield (12-5-2 split)

Highest odds: Feneley (881/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (2209/1)
Average odds: 1331/1

Best predictors: Tarek Najm & Doron Salomon (7/10)
Worst predictor: Sam Ruback (3/10)
Average score: 5.1/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/19)
Worst predicted results: Swansea WIN & Southampton vs Spurs DRAW (0/19)

Everyone's results:


Leaderboard (>2/3; 17/24)


This week's predos:

Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
West Ham vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Huddersfield vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Chelsea vs Bournemouth - CHELSEA
Everton vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Newcastle vs Burnley - DRAW
Southampton vs Brighton - BRIGHTON
Man City vs WBA - MAN CITY
Stoke vs Watford - STOKE
Spurs vs Man Utd - DRAW

Good luck guys

Wednesday, 24 January 2018

FA Cup 2018: Round 4

I apologise in advance for not checking the data but I think this was a record low for 3rd round scores. The cause, as ever in this game is relative homogeneity in the predictions, matched with a higher than average "shock" quota.

This year, Arsenal & Notts County did the damage to everyone, Swansea, Rochdale & Bradford to nearly everyone. That immediately excludes massive scores.

Now, if I'm honest, I don't know much about any of the games that happened. I had a family celebration all weekend, and then given the utter faecal exhibition on show at the City Ground, I had no desire to go watch MOTD. So yay to the winnners and boo to Nottingham Forest.

Therefore, I have nothing to add. Let's get statty:

This year - there are 9 players

Most popular predicted results: Liverpool, Aston Villa, Leeds, Arsenal, Brentford, Man Utd, Spurs, Middlesborough, Leicester, Cardiff, Man City & Chelsea WINS (9/9)
Most disputed results: Blackburn WIN (5/9)

Best predictors: Doron & the Feneleys (24/32)
Worst predictors: All 3 Daniels (18/32)

Best predicted results: Liverpool, Aston Villa, Leeds, Man Utd, Spurs, Middlesborough, Leicester, Cardiff, Man City & Chelsea WINS (9/9)
Worst predicted results: Notts Forest & Notts County WINS (0/9)

Everyone's results:


Round 4 predos:

Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY
Yeovil vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Peterborough vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Huddersfield vs Birmingham - HUDDERSFIELD
Notts County vs Swansea - SWANSEA
MK Dons vs Coventry - MK DONS
Millwall vs Rochdale - MILLWALL
Southampton vs Watford - SOUTHAMPTON
Middlesborough vs Brighton - MIDDLESBOROUGH
Wigan vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Hull vs Nottingham Forest - NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Sheffield Utd v Preston - PRESTON
Newport vs Spurs - SPURS
Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL
Chelsea vs Newcastle - CHELSEA
Cardiff vs Man City - MAN CITY

If you haven't yet paid the £5 and need my bank details, please let me know. If you've paid already, let me know too :D

Good luck guys


Thursday, 18 January 2018

S7M24: All change

Firstly, let me start by saying I feel like I've missed some people out from the results this week, so apologies if that's you. Please remind me where you've sent your predos to & will update the database accordingly.

Well what happened this week?

Chelsea drew yet again as Kante & Drinkwater were unable to send old club home with their mangey/bushy tails between their legs. Hodgson is a magician, and the Burnley momentum seems to have slowed. Moyes also has quietly reinvigorated West Ham, and frankly they're probably safe now. Only need to be the 4th worst team...

Newcastle drew with Swansea, but that wasn't the worst part of their week. Their takeover is no more, continuing the Ashley reign. Watford & Southampton had a draw that I know not much about other than the 2-0 down, 2-2 stuff. WBA won for the first time since 2002 and Spurs battered Everton. Allardici dun good.

What happened on Sunday? Arsenal arsenaled it at Bournemouth, and then....el dia de los invincibles arrived at long bloody last. Frankly, I was getting pretty worried. Well done scousers, take the rest of the season off. Don't worry, the benefits will remain paid...

Man Utd won comfortably.

VAR was hilarious in the FA Cup and transfer stuff, but let's cover that when it's all done - apologies to those rereading my thoughts from twitter there...

Let's get statty:
This week 19 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)
Most disputed prediction: Huddersfield vs West Ham (5-8-6 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 1707/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 554/1
Average odds: 1131/1

Best predictor: Josh Daniels (7/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com (2/10)
Average score: 3.95/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth WIN (0/19)

Everyone's results:


Leaderboard (>2/3 weeks; 16/23)


This week's predos:

Brighton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - ARSENAL
Burnley vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Everton vs WBA - EVERTON
Leicester vs Watford - LEICESTER
Stoke vs Huddersfield - DRAW
West Ham vs Bournemouth - WEST HAM
Man City vs Newcastle - MAN CITY
Southampton vs Spurs - SPURS
Swansea vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Good like guys!

Thursday, 11 January 2018

S7M23: But what is normal

I've got 4 weeks' of data to publish, the games are now getting on for 3 weeks old in some instances and we've all been doing cup stuff the last week.

No chat therefore, but given that I'm almost guaranteed to have made a mistake somewhere, or left someone's results off, please double check and let me know if I need to amend the database.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 19
21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (19/21)
Most disputed predicted result: Brighton vs Watford (5-10-5 split)

Highest odds:  AFM (6819/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1081/1)
Average odds: 2653/1

Best predictors: Lawro, Nick Jones & Doron Salomon (5/10)
Worst predictor: 4 of you (2/10)
Average score: 3.19/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/21)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle WIN (0/21)

Matchday 20
22 people played
Most popular predicted results: Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd & Man City WINS (22/22)
Most disputed predicted result: Bournemouth vs West Ham (7-10-5 split)

Highest odds:  AFM (1086/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (251/1)
Average odds: 520/1

Best predictor: Joe Abbott & David Dinkin (8/10)
Worst predictor: Me (4/10)
Average score: 5.74/10

Best predicted results: Chelsea, Liverpool & Man City WINS (22/22)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd vs Burnley DRAW (0/22)

Matchday 21
21 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Most disputed predicted result: Huddersfield vs Burnley (2-9-10 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley (287/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (106/1)
Average odds: 187/1

Best predictor: Loads -  4/9 (4.44/10 when upgraded as per early season rules)
Worst predictor: Loads -  2/9 (2.22/10 when upgraded as per early season rules)
Average score: 2.76/9 (3.07/10)

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace vs Man City DRAW (0/21)

Matchday 22

Welcome new player - David Graniewitz

17 people played
Most popular predicted results: Spurs & Man City WINS (17/17)
Most disputed predicted result: Brighton vs Bournemouth (5-6-6 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley (3491/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (850/1)
Average odds: 2250/1

Best predictors: 4 of you (8/10)
Worst predictor: David Graniewitz with a horror debut (3/10)
Average score: 6.11/10

Best predicted result: Spurs & Man City WINS (17/17)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN (3/17)

Everyone's results:


To the leaderboard (>2/3 weeks; 15/22)


This week's predos:

Chelsea vs Leicester - CHELSEA
Crystal Palace vs Burnley - CRYSTAL PALACE
Huddersfield vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Newcastle vs Swansea - NEWCASTLE
Watford vs Southampton - DRAW
WBA vs Brighton - DRAW
Spurs vs Everton - SPURS
Bournemouth vs Arsenal - DRAW
Liverpool vs Man City - MAN CITY
Man Utd vs Stoke - MAN UTD

Good luck guys!

Tuesday, 2 January 2018

FA Cup 2018: Round 3

A little break from the PL allows me to catch up on the couple of million data points that need to be sorted from the festive fixtures and it's my privilege (checked) to present the return of the FA Cup game.

Revision of the rules:

  • Stand alone from PL game - you can play this if you've not been involved before
  • £5 buy in - submitting predictions = agreeing to pay. Please don't make me chase you.
  • Pick the club to progress from each tie - no draws! (replays, a.e.t., pens etc all count)
  • Predictions need to be submitted before kick off
  • 1 point per correct prediction
  • Prize money payouts to 1st, 2nd 3rd places in May (£ depends on size of prize pot)
  • Share with anyone who's interested - happy to set up another email chain/WhatsApp group for reminders - the more, the merrier, the richer someone gets...
Round 3 Predictions:


Ipswich v Sheffield United - IPSWICH
Watford v Bristol City - WATFORD
Birmingham v Burton - BURTON
Liverpool v Everton - LIVERPOOL
Brighton v Crystal Palace - CRYSTAL PALACE
Aston Villa v Peterborough - ASTON VILLA
Bournemouth v Wigan - WIGAN
Coventry v Stoke - STOKE
Newport v Leeds - LEEDS
Bolton v Huddersfield - HUDDERSFIELD
Yeovil v Bradford - BRADFORD
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal - ARSENAL
Brentford v Notts County - BRENTFORD
QPR v MK Dons - QPR
Manchester United v Derby - MAN UTD
Exeter v West Brom - WBA
Doncaster v Rochdale - DONCASTER
Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon - SPURS
Middlesbrough v Sunderland - MIDDLESBOROUGH
Fleetwood v Leicester - LEICESTER
Blackburn v Hull - BLACKBURN
Cardiff v Mansfield - CARDIFF
Manchester City v Burnley - MAN CITY
Shrewsbury v West Ham - SHREWSBURY
Wolves v Swansea - WOLVES
Stevenage v Reading - STEVENAGE
Newcastle v Luton - NEWCASTLE
Millwall v Barnsley - BARNSLEY
Fulham v Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON
Wycombe v Preston - PRESTON
Norwich v Chelsea - CHELSEA
Carlisle v Sheffield Wednesday - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

Good luck guys!