FA Cup 2018: Round 4

I apologise in advance for not checking the data but I think this was a record low for 3rd round scores. The cause, as ever in this game is relative homogeneity in the predictions, matched with a higher than average "shock" quota.

This year, Arsenal & Notts County did the damage to everyone, Swansea, Rochdale & Bradford to nearly everyone. That immediately excludes massive scores.

Now, if I'm honest, I don't know much about any of the games that happened. I had a family celebration all weekend, and then given the utter faecal exhibition on show at the City Ground, I had no desire to go watch MOTD. So yay to the winnners and boo to Nottingham Forest.

Therefore, I have nothing to add. Let's get statty:

This year - there are 9 players

Most popular predicted results: Liverpool, Aston Villa, Leeds, Arsenal, Brentford, Man Utd, Spurs, Middlesborough, Leicester, Cardiff, Man City & Chelsea WINS (9/9)
Most disputed results: Blackburn WIN (5/9)

Best predictors: Doron & the Feneleys (24/32)
Worst predictors: All 3 Daniels (18/32)

Best predicted results: Liverpool, Aston Villa, Leeds, Man Utd, Spurs, Middlesborough, Leicester, Cardiff, Man City & Chelsea WINS (9/9)
Worst predicted results: Notts Forest & Notts County WINS (0/9)

Everyone's results:

Round 4 predos:

Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY
Yeovil vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Peterborough vs Leicester - LEICESTER
Huddersfield vs Birmingham - HUDDERSFIELD
Notts County vs Swansea - SWANSEA
MK Dons vs Coventry - MK DONS
Millwall vs Rochdale - MILLWALL
Southampton vs Watford - SOUTHAMPTON
Middlesborough vs Brighton - MIDDLESBOROUGH
Wigan vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Hull vs Nottingham Forest - NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Sheffield Utd v Preston - PRESTON
Newport vs Spurs - SPURS
Liverpool vs WBA - LIVERPOOL
Chelsea vs Newcastle - CHELSEA
Cardiff vs Man City - MAN CITY

If you haven't yet paid the £5 and need my bank details, please let me know. If you've paid already, let me know too :D

Good luck guys

S7M24: All change

Firstly, let me start by saying I feel like I've missed some people out from the results this week, so apologies if that's you. Please remind me where you've sent your predos to & will update the database accordingly.

Well what happened this week?

Chelsea drew yet again as Kante & Drinkwater were unable to send old club home with their mangey/bushy tails between their legs. Hodgson is a magician, and the Burnley momentum seems to have slowed. Moyes also has quietly reinvigorated West Ham, and frankly they're probably safe now. Only need to be the 4th worst team...

Newcastle drew with Swansea, but that wasn't the worst part of their week. Their takeover is no more, continuing the Ashley reign. Watford & Southampton had a draw that I know not much about other than the 2-0 down, 2-2 stuff. WBA won for the first time since 2002 and Spurs battered Everton. Allardici dun good.

What happened on Sunday? Arsenal arsenaled it at Bournemouth, and then....el dia de los invincibles arrived at long bloody last. Frankly, I was getting pretty worried. Well done scousers, take the rest of the season off. Don't worry, the benefits will remain paid...

Man Utd won comfortably.

VAR was hilarious in the FA Cup and transfer stuff, but let's cover that when it's all done - apologies to those rereading my thoughts from twitter there...

Let's get statty:
This week 19 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)
Most disputed prediction: Huddersfield vs West Ham (5-8-6 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 1707/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 554/1
Average odds: 1131/1

Best predictor: Josh Daniels (7/10)
Worst predictor: WhoScored.com (2/10)
Average score: 3.95/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Bournemouth WIN (0/19)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3 weeks; 16/23)

This week's predos:

Brighton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - ARSENAL

Burnley vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Everton vs WBA - EVERTON

Leicester vs Watford - LEICESTER

Stoke vs Huddersfield - DRAW

West Ham vs Bournemouth - WEST HAM

Man City vs Newcastle - MAN CITY

Southampton vs Spurs - SPURS

Swansea vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Good like guys!

S7M23: But what is normal

I've got 4 weeks' of data to publish, the games are now getting on for 3 weeks old in some instances and we've all been doing cup stuff the last week.

No chat therefore, but given that I'm almost guaranteed to have made a mistake somewhere, or left someone's results off, please double check and let me know if I need to amend the database.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 19
21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (19/21)
Most disputed predicted result: Brighton vs Watford (5-10-5 split)

Highest odds:  AFM (6819/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (1081/1)
Average odds: 2653/1

Best predictors: Lawro, Nick Jones & Doron Salomon (5/10)
Worst predictor: 4 of you (2/10)
Average score: 3.19/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (19/21)
Worst predicted result: Newcastle WIN (0/21)

Matchday 20
22 people played
Most popular predicted results: Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd & Man City WINS (22/22)
Most disputed predicted result: Bournemouth vs West Ham (7-10-5 split)

Highest odds:  AFM (1086/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (251/1)
Average odds: 520/1

Best predictor: Joe Abbott & David Dinkin (8/10)
Worst predictor: Me (4/10)
Average score: 5.74/10

Best predicted results: Chelsea, Liverpool & Man City WINS (22/22)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd vs Burnley DRAW (0/22)

Matchday 21
21 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Most disputed predicted result: Huddersfield vs Burnley (2-9-10 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley (287/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (106/1)
Average odds: 187/1

Best predictor: Loads -  4/9 (4.44/10 when upgraded as per early season rules)
Worst predictor: Loads -  2/9 (2.22/10 when upgraded as per early season rules)
Average score: 2.76/9 (3.07/10)

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace vs Man City DRAW (0/21)

Matchday 22

Welcome new player - David Graniewitz

17 people played
Most popular predicted results: Spurs & Man City WINS (17/17)
Most disputed predicted result: Brighton vs Bournemouth (5-6-6 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley (3491/1)
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels (850/1)
Average odds: 2250/1

Best predictors: 4 of you (8/10)
Worst predictor: David Graniewitz with a horror debut (3/10)
Average score: 6.11/10

Best predicted result: Spurs & Man City WINS (17/17)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace WIN (3/17)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (>2/3 weeks; 15/22)

This week's predos:

Chelsea vs Leicester - CHELSEA

Crystal Palace vs Burnley - CRYSTAL PALACE

Huddersfield vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Newcastle vs Swansea - NEWCASTLE

Watford vs Southampton - DRAW

WBA vs Brighton - DRAW

Spurs vs Everton - SPURS

Bournemouth vs Arsenal - DRAW

Liverpool vs Man City - MAN CITY

Man Utd vs Stoke - MAN UTD

Good luck guys!

FA Cup 2018: Round 3

A little break from the PL allows me to catch up on the couple of million data points that need to be sorted from the festive fixtures and it's my privilege (checked) to present the return of the FA Cup game.

Revision of the rules:

• Stand alone from PL game - you can play this if you've not been involved before
• £5 buy in - submitting predictions = agreeing to pay. Please don't make me chase you.
• Pick the club to progress from each tie - no draws! (replays, a.e.t., pens etc all count)
• Predictions need to be submitted before kick off
• 1 point per correct prediction
• Prize money payouts to 1st, 2nd 3rd places in May (£ depends on size of prize pot)
• Share with anyone who's interested - happy to set up another email chain/WhatsApp group for reminders - the more, the merrier, the richer someone gets...

Round 3 Predictions:

Ipswich v Sheffield United - IPSWICH

Watford v Bristol City - WATFORD

Birmingham v Burton - BURTON

Liverpool v Everton - LIVERPOOL

Brighton v Crystal Palace - CRYSTAL PALACE

Aston Villa v Peterborough - ASTON VILLA

Bournemouth v Wigan - WIGAN

Coventry v Stoke - STOKE

Newport v Leeds - LEEDS

Bolton v Huddersfield - HUDDERSFIELD

Yeovil v Bradford - BRADFORD

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal - ARSENAL

Brentford v Notts County - BRENTFORD

QPR v MK Dons - QPR

Manchester United v Derby - MAN UTD

Exeter v West Brom - WBA

Doncaster v Rochdale - DONCASTER

Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon - SPURS

Middlesbrough v Sunderland - MIDDLESBOROUGH

Fleetwood v Leicester - LEICESTER

Blackburn v Hull - BLACKBURN

Cardiff v Mansfield - CARDIFF

Manchester City v Burnley - MAN CITY

Shrewsbury v West Ham - SHREWSBURY

Wolves v Swansea - WOLVES

Stevenage v Reading - STEVENAGE

Newcastle v Luton - NEWCASTLE

Millwall v Barnsley - BARNSLEY

Fulham v Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Wycombe v Preston - PRESTON

Norwich v Chelsea - CHELSEA

Carlisle v Sheffield Wednesday - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

Good luck guys!

S7M22: I've got a LOT of stats to do...

Quicky 'cos it's NYE and I've already had half a bottle of gin (soz Dad)

Brighton vs Bournemouth - BOURNEMOUTH
Burnley vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Leicester vs Huddersfield - LEICESTER
Stoke vs Newcastle- NEWCASTLE
Everton vs Man Utd - DRAW
Southampton  vs Crystal Palace - DRAW
Swansea vs Spurs - SPURS
West Ham vs WBA - WEST HAM
Man City vs Watford - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs Chelsea - DRAW

Good luck guys

S7M19, M20 & M21: Coupon Buster (Merry Xmas)

I love a week like this. Limited variance between predictions, all showing lots of group think. Then obviously, it doesn't go to plan.

In game one. Perfect. 25 accumulators ruined. Benteke back in favour.

These weekends throw up loads of high results - who didn't see Arsenal or Chelsea winning, but also then allows for the shocks - Huddersfield overturning some poor form to win away at a Watford side who really have struggled in recent weeks. Maybe a 24-1-0 split favoured them...

Liverpool, Man Utd & Everton all won, as did Man City, very convincingly against a Spurs side fortunate not to be down to 9 men and concede a further 3 or 4.  West Ham continued their renaissance whilst last spot on MOTD was reserved for the goal-less draw between Brighton & Burnley.

Let's get statty:

This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton WINS (25/25)
Most disputed results: Brighton vs Burnley (4-9-12 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 885/1
Lowest odds: Me & Steven Daniels 326/1
Average odds: 595/1

Best predictor: David Brickman (8/10)
Worst predictors: Matt Abbott, Menachem Grunewald & Aron Kleiman (5/10)
Average score: 6.36/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal, Chelsea & Everton WINS (25/25)
Worst predicted results: Crystal Palace & Huddersfield WINS (0/25)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 13/18)

Festive predos:

M19:
Arsenal vs Liverpool - DRAW
Everton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Brighton vs Watford - DRAW
Man City vs Bournemouth - MAN CITY
Southampton vs Huddersfield - DRAW
Stoke vs WBA - DRAW
Swansea vs Crystal Palace - CRYSTAL PALACE
West Ham vs Newcastle - WEST HAM
Burnley vs Spurs - SPURS
Leicester vs Man Utd - MAN UTD


M20:
Spurs vs Southampton -SPURS
Bournemouth vs West Ham - WEST HAM
Chelsea vs Brighton - CHELSEA
Huddersfield vs Stoke - HUDDERSFIELD
Man Utd vs Burnley - MAN UTD
Watford vs Leicester - LEICESTER
WBA vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs Swansea - LIVERPOOL
Newcastle vs Man City - MAN CITY
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal - DRAW

M21:
Bournemouth vs Everton
Chelsea vs Stoke
Huddersfield vs Burnley
Liverpool vs Leicester
Newcastle vs Brighton
Watford vs Swansea
Man Utd vs Southampton
Crystal Palace vs Man City
WBA vs Arsenal


Good luck guys, and have a great time whatever you're up to over this time

S7M18: I need a new title

I was going to talk about the lack of "winter balls" and whether this was a regression of the rampant commercialisation in the game - a return to the nostalgic times of white balls unless it was snowing...

...unfortunately, I decided to check my facts before typing and apparently we've been using the winter ball for 6 weeks and I just 1) haven't noticed & 2) my stream was funny the other day...

So a new topic is in order...

Man City continued their march towards the title with a record breaking 15th straight wins. Loads of bitterness going round about their money, Pep, something about set pieces etc - frankly I don't care. Love watching them play and they are a special, once-in-a-decade team however you spin in.

And Mou can do one chatting about respect...

No time for that hypocrite.

Liverpool have lost momentum a little, as have Arsenal, although they arguably had none to begin with. Chelsea continue to veer between dominance and rickety whilst Spurs are also keeping pace without really looking like their old selves. Spanking Stoke away doens't count. 

Burnley & Leicester are the other form sides, along with an Everton team slightly revitalised under Big Sam, who has spent his hiatus from football with a cameo role in Blue Planet II (yes I'm late to that party...)

...and not a pint of wine in sight...

Newcastle fans are looking off the pitch for their seasonal cheer - reports today that they may have a new owner imminently. Lucky them. Watford have also started a tricky spell losing to a Palace side who really should have 2 wins from 2. Benteke's penalty shenanigans coming too late to make it onto Nick Hancock's Xmas Footy Bloopers DVD. Does that still exist?

Swansea and West Ham both picked up some points to potentially make the 2nd half of the season more interesting - was rubbish last year when we knew everyone who was going down way in advance.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 16

24 people played

Most popular predicted result: Spurs WIN (24/24)

Most disputed result: Swansea vs WBA (9-7-8 split)

Highest odds: AFM (3843/1)

Lowest odds: Feneley (902/1)

Average odds: 2188/1

Best predictors: Me & Aron Kleiman (7/10)

Worst predictors: Dinkin & Doron (1/10)

Average score: 3.63/10

Best predicted result: Spurs WIN (24/24)

Worst predicted result: West Ham WIN (0/24)

Matchday 17

20 people played

Most popular predicted results: Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd & Spurs WINS (20/20)

Most disputed result: Crystal Palace vs Watford (6-8-6 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (281/1)

Lowest odds: Doron Salomon (246/1)

Average odds: 264/1

Best predictor: Steven Daniels (8/10)

Worst predictors: Loads of you (5/10)

Average score: 5.86/10

Best predicted result: Man City, Man Utd & Spurs WINS (20/20)

Worst predicted result: Liverpool vs WBA DRAW (0/20)

Everyone's results:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 12/17)

This week's predos:

Leicester vs Crystal Palace - LEICESTER

Arsenal vs Newcastle - ARSENAL

Brighton vs Burnley - BURNLEY

Chelsea vs Southampton - CHELSEA

Stoke vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Watford vs Huddersfield - WATFORD

Man City vs Spurs - MAN CITY

WBA vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Bournemouth vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Everton vs Swansea - EVERTON

Total odds: 326/1

Good luck guys