S4M20 & FA Cup 3-3: 2015 - the best year since 1510

Welcome to winter folks. I've finally had to get the car scrapey thing out on a regular basis. It's as much this kind of weather as anything else - lack of fitness, physique, technique, skill, motivation - that led me to give up on a career in professional football. I remember playing one Sunday league game somewhere between the ages of 13-18 where it was freezing cold, blowing katabatic winds over the rec pitches of North London and properly raining too. The sort of rain that wasn't just miserable, but the rain drops actually appeared to be about a litre in volume each. The sort where you're drenched within seconds. This was football pre-snood, and I had my Prostar kit and Nike gloves for warmth. Probably a cotton t-shirt underneath with a (handwritten) witty slogan on it, waiting for that annual goal to arrive.

I couldn't tell you who I was playing for, who we were playing, where it was or anything else. I just remember thinking, "why the Federico Macheda am I playing football in this weather?"

The answer of course is 1) Slide tackles and 2) Millions of pounds. I never quite received part 2, but definitely loved a good part 1. Not enough to continue with my miserable amateur career (I played in some shocking teams down the years - common denominator, what?)

Anyway, the weather wasn't that terrible for most in the last few days. Boxing Day went pretty much to plan for most - we had some very low odds, and the best average score yet this season! The next round of matches - er, not so much! Not the worst - but not far off. It might have something to do with the whole fatigue thing Van Gaal's banged on about - although it'd be easier to be sympathetic if he made an effort to use his squad. It also probably has a  lot to do with the utter dross of 18/20 Premier League teams lending to unpredictabilitee - and 1 of the other 2 managed to have a shock result.

The problem with double blogs is that I could talk too much - and since I've already told you a fascinating anecdote, I'll leave it there other than to say that Colin being sacked is a tragedy. 'Cos now he'll get back into the media game and will therefore be harder to ignore.

Let's get statty:

Matchday 18:

This week, 22 people played
Most predicted results: Man City & Arsenal WINS (22/22)
Most disputed result: Crystal Palace vs Southampton (1-8-13 split)

Highest odds: AFM (3117/1)
Highest Non-AFM odds: Feneley (1501/1)
Highest Non-Feneley-family odds: Josh Daniels (767/1)
Lowest odds: Me (275/1)
Average odds: 973/1 (615/1 without AFM)

Best predictor: Loads of you (8/10) - see below
Worst predictor: David Silverman (5/10 - still not terrible)
Average score: 6.86/10

Best predicted result: Man City & Arsenal WINS (22/22)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (0/22)

Everyone's results:

Matchday 19:

This week, 19 people played

Most predicted result: Man City WIN (19/19)

Most disputed result: Newcastle vs Everton (4-10-5 split)

Highest odds: AFM (22,111/1)

Highest non-AFM odds: Me (7,392/1)

Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (1,437/1)

Average odds: 6638/1

Best predictor: Yo Abbott (6/10)

Worst predictor: Will O'Doherty (1/10)

Average score: 3.16/10

Best predicted result: Stoke WIN (17/19)

Worst predicted result: Man City vs Burnley DRAW (0/19)

Everyone's results:

Josh Gaon picks a great week to miss out. I reckon that there is Back to the Future style mischief going on here. If anyone finds him perusing the 2000-2050 Sports Almanac, send me a copy of just 1 page. I offer great commission.

To the leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 available weeks (13/19)

So Gaon extends his lead from .33 to .46 which is frankly, Joe Miller levels of dominance. That said, Joe then ran away like a little girl after his triumph, suggesting that it was just beginners' luck. That last matchday hit many people hard, with most losing a few points here and there - Yo being the main exception. Tarek rejoins the leaderboard...but probably wishes he hadn't. Still....plenty more time to change as we reach the halfway stage.

To Matchday 20 predos:

Stoke vs Man Utd - DRAW
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace - CRYSTAL PALACE
Hull vs Everton - EVERTON
Liverpool vs Leicester - LIVERPOOL
Man City vs Sunderland - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs Burnley - DRAW
QPR vs Swansea - DRAW
Southampton vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
West Ham vs WBA - WEST HAM
Spurs vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Total odds: 4036/1 (PaddyPower)

Finally - the FA Cup Cash game returns for a third season. The rules for those who are new:

• Predict which team will win the tie (including replays/penalties) - no draws here
• Give me £5 - various methods of payment available
• 1 point per correct result.
• Come May, whoever has won gets 70% of the prize pot. Runner up gets 20%. 3rd place gets 10%. Prize money split if there are ties.
• The more who play - the bigger the prize pot - the more money you could win.
• This game is completely separate to the PL game - you don't have to play - just don't predict.
• Predictions = payment. I really don't want to have to chase people for months.

I don't need your money now - but if you plan to play, then I need all your entries before the first game of the 3rd round kicks off (Friday 3rd, 1945).

Here are the 3rd round ties:

1 Arsenal v Hull City   
2 Southampton v Ipswich Town   
3 Stoke City v Wrexham   
4 Charlton Athletic v Blackburn Rovers   
5 Dover Athletic v Crystal Palace   
6 AFC Wimbledon v Liverpool   
7 Manchester City v Sheffield Wednesday   
8 Rochdale v Nottingham Forest   
9 West Bromwich Albion v Gateshead   
10 Blyth Spartans v Birmingham City   
11 Aston Villa v Blackpool   
12 Rotherham United v AFC Bournemouth   
13 Huddersfield Town v Reading   
14 Tranmere Rovers v Swansea City   
15 Cardiff City v Colchester United   
16 Bolton Wanderers v Wigan Athletic   
17 Sunderland v Leeds United   
18 Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur   
19 Millwall v Bradford City   
20 Derby County v Southport   
21 Brentford v Brighton & Hove Albion   
22 Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers   
23 Leicester City v Newcastle United   
24 Scunthorpe United v Chesterfield/MK Dons 
25 Everton v West Ham United   
26 Cambridge United v Luton Town   
27 Chelsea v Watford   
28 Barnsley v Middlesbrough   
29 Queens Park Rangers v Sheffield United   
30 Yeovil Town v Manchester United   
31 Preston North End v Norwich City   
32 Doncaster Rovers v Bristol City

***Update 01/01/2015 2320***

Too lazy to type all the games out:

Good luck guys! Have a great New Year's Eve - whatever you do!

S4M18 & 19: Merry Christmas, one and all (except you Charlie Austin. And you too, Mrtn Skrtl)

Saturday was a good day for me. I'd ummed and ahhhhed over changing my Southampton WIN prediction on Friday, but decided to go with my gut, after Jonny Lee Miller's advice in Elementary about your gut being right 80% of the time.

He should play Impossibilitee. He'd either be awesome, or it'd rapidly disabuse him of that notion. I digress.

Anyway, I stuck with my original prediction, and when I checked the scores midway through the second half (working again - no Spurs players around to keep me entertained), I was heartened to see that I was on for 6/7 on the Saturday games, and the one thing I was wrong about was Villa leading Man Utd! "BooYa" I said. I'll take the loss of a point to see Utd slip up (the old real world/betting friction). Even when Falcao equalised, I was still pretty content with that.

But the Charlie Austin, a man with a strange face/voice combination - does anyone else feel that they don't exactly match up? - decided to ruin it with (an admittedly good) winner for QPR in the last few minutes. I dropped the 'Ya' from my previous exclamation. I was unimpressed.

Sunday also posed a tricky one. I'd failed to notice Alnwick's injury in Newcastle's 2nd North London paddling of the week - and their subsequent need to play an even rookier rookie in goal. So again, I'd considered boosting Sunderland to at least a draw...but stayed with the advice above. This one didn't pay off. Not even close. So I'm not all that bitter about Adam Johnson, and certainly not bitter enough to include him in the title.

Mrtn Skrtl on the other hand. You bugger. Yep, Liverpool deserved at least a point. But, (further) ruining both my predictions and the smash'n'grab of my hopeless team has meant that I hope Santa brings him coal. I'm too lazy to do any research into Slovakian festive customs, so I'm assuming that's a universally bad thing. Obviously, if the Skrtl household is coal reliant, then I hope he get's something else bad, like 'Arry Redknapp's autobiography (not read, wouldn't use it to wipe my bottom). Chelsea won quite comfortably to stay 3 point clear at Christmas. I was in the uncomfortable position of wanting Stoke to win, and those feelings only became stronger when they let John Terry score. Quite the mental turmoil. I could write a lot more about my struggle here, but I feel that book's already been done.

What? Too soon?

Let's get statty:

This week, 19 people played
Most popular predicted results: Man City & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
Most disputed result: Hull vs Swansea (3-8-8 split....sorry Hull)

Highest odds: Sam Ruback 2812/1
Lowest odds: AFM 612/1

The world has inverted peeps. Get to your apocalypse shelters. Shotgun Rachel Riley.

Average odds: 1737/1

Highest score: Will O'Doherty (8/10)
Lowest score: Feneley, Josh Daniels & David Silverman (4/10)
Average score: 5.68/10

Best predicted result: Man City & Chelsea WINS (19/19)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN & Aston Villa vs Man Utd DRAW (1/19 - well done to Will O'Doherty & Sam Ruback respectively)


Everyone's scores:

Leaderboard for those who have played >2/3 of available games (12/17):

We're getting to the point of the season where, unless there are dramatic differentials, we don't see loads of movement in the table. Sam and WhoScored.com making valiant efforts to stay in touch of Josh Gaon, who's looking to have this wrapped up in record time. Feneley's abysmal week sees him on the bottom over Christmas, staring forlornly through window at all the jollyness inside. Extra training for you son, no mince pies until you're off the bottom.

This week's predos:

M18

Chelsea vs West Ham - CHELSEA
Burnley vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Crystal Palace vs Southampton - DRAW
Everton vs Stoke - EVERTON
Leicester vs Spurs - SPURS
Man Utd vs Newcastle - MAN UTD
Sunderland vs Hull - SUNDERLAND
Swansea vs Aston Villa - SWANSEA
WBA vs Man City - MAN CITY
Arsenal vs QPR - ARSENAL

Total Odds: 275/1 (PaddyPower)

M19 (Updated 27/12/14 17:53)

Spurs vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Aston Villa vs Sunderland - DRAW
Hull vs Leicester - HULL
Man City vs Burnley - MAN CITY
QPR vs Crystal Palace - QPR
Stoke vs WBA - STOKE
West Ham vs Arsenal - DRAW
Newcastle vs Everton - DRAW
Liverpool vs Swansea - DRAW

Total Odds: 7392/1 (PaddyPower)

I'll take this opportunity to which you all well over the festive period/period off work eating lot/watching movies/sleeping/drinking. Also a reminder, that the annual FA Cup money game will be returning in under 2 weeks, so save your pennies now for the £5 entry. Josh Gaon looking to be the first man to do the Impossibilitee League & Cup double.

See y'all before the NYD games. Good luck!

S4M17: Missed opportunities

I don't generally talk too much about my personal life on this blog, other than in quite vague terms 'cos frankly it's not got much to do with football. But last week, this happened:

Yep - the annual footballers' trip to a local children's ward to spread some festive cheer. I work in Spurs/West Ham territory and so my local unit was visited by a smattering of players from Spurs (& Leyton Orient...but...er....yeah).  I'd been quite looking forward to seeing who turned up and maybe surreptitiously stamping on a few toes, but (obviously) the date was kept a secret. So they pitched up last week - some guy, the other chap, Tash Parker from Dream Team and (in my opinion), one of the most punchable face'd players ever - Eriksen. I was on bloody annual leave (against my will) so missed all the fun (and stamping) - but I love how in this picture, the girl seems to be really unamused at who's come and the crappy signed card thing they've given her.

Anyway - I'm well annoyed and will be frantically trying to get a shift at a different North London hospital in the next week to get some of this:

That's how you make the kids smile...

To football - Southampton's miserable run continued at Burnley, Chelsea got back on their little horse against a useless Hull, whilst Man City looked a tad shaky in a narrow win against a Leicester side now looking rooted at the bottom of the table. WBA took Midlands bragging rights whilst Arsenal did some Toon spanking in the late game. Man Utd won comfortably although de Gea made some cracking saves - Balotelli should have scored at least 1, as should Sterling which may have made it interesting. Spurs did their customary last minute winner for a 2-1 win thing, and Everton were quite average against QPR, which is still enough to win 3-1 against a poor team who really should go down too.

Let's get statty:

Last week, 20 people played

Most popular predicted results: Southampton, Chelsea & Man City WINS (19/20)

Most disputed result: WBA vs Aston Villa (7-8-5 split)

Highest odds: AFM (obvs) 92020/1

Highest odds -excluding AFM: Feneley 17924/1

Highest odds excluding the Feneley family who really need to stop drinking before predicting: Steven Daniels 4876/1

Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (obvs) 543/1  

Highest score: Brad Allix (8/10) - making up for his shameful debut

Lowest score: AFM (3/10)

Average score: 5.75/10

Best predicted results: Chelsea & Man City WINS (19/20)

Worst predicted result: Burnley WIN (0/20)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard (>2/3 of weeks, or 11/16)

To this week's predos:

Man City vs Crystal Palace - MAN CITY
Aston Villa vs Man Utd - MAN UTD
Hull vs Swansea - SWANSEA
QPR vs WBA - DRAW
Southampton vs Everton - SOUTHAMPTON
Spurs vs Burnley - SPURS
West Ham vs Leicester - WEST HAM
Newcastle vs Sunderland - NEWCASTLE
Liverpool vs Arsenal - ARSENAL
Stoke vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Total odds: 877/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys - blog to go up Monday night/Tuesday with Boxing Day and 28/29 fixtures

S4M16: I am a very petty, small man

As the song goes, "Is this how it feels to be Tottenham/City/insert rival of choice"...

Saturday was a good day, wasn't it? Sun shining, birds tweeting, that thing thinging, Papiss Cisse scoring....

As an Arsenal fan, I've sort of accepted that we're never* going to win the league again - and really felt that way since that horrific day in Birmingham in 2008 when Eduardo's leg was removed by Martin Taylor. I'd like to see us challenge occasionally....but accept that teams with more money, squad depth and pragmatism will win ahead of us. Like the pretty fantastic Chelsea side of this year.
I'm cool with that - or as cool as someone can be with the acceptance that a hated rival will win stuff.

However, I just don't want anyone to take our Invincible title away, so in addition to the sacred holiday of St Totteringham, I also celebrate El Día de Los Invencibles annually, when the children laugh with mirth and frolic gaily in the streets of Islingtown. This year's festivities were enjoyed with a refreshing Newkie Brown & some Pease pudding in honour of this year's conquistadors. I invite you, friends, to join me in making this celebration part of your own calendar.

In other news, Man City got jammy, QPR are probably going to avoid relegation as a result of winning home games, Man Utd got jammy, West Ham are improbably good and I don't think anyone understands how (Maybe Sam Allardyce is one of those Qui Reverti blokes from BBC's Intruders?)

Villa have continued their post-Keane-ian renaissance and all the other football was dull, with the exception of Stoke-Arsenal which was lovely for the £1 house dwellers and rubbish for all Arsenal fans, except me, who didn't give a fig 'cos I was too busy celebrating El Día de Los Invencibles. Seriously....try it! I also didn't see the game and have so far avoided "highlights" which is the footballing equivalent of having a chat underground with an ostrich, whilst presenting my buttocks to a lion. Read that as you see fit.

*never in the childhood sense of not in the immediate vicinity of time as I can comprehend it

Let's get statty:

This week, 18 people played, including newbie, the Hampshire Hammer, Bradley Allix - welcome mate, hope you stick around!

Most popular predicted results: Liverpool & Man City WINS (17/18)
Most disputed result: Southampton vs Man Utd (3-5-10 split)

Highest odds: 35,835/1 Andrew Feneley's Mum (obvs)
Highest odds (excluding AFM): Doron Salomon (obvs) 5847/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback (obvs) 1172/1
Average odds: 8352/1 (2855/1 without AFM)

Best predictors: Me & David Silverman (7/10)
Worst predictors: Charlie R & Brad Allix (debut to forget) 2/10
Average score: 4.11/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (17/18)
Worst predicted result: Stoke WIN (0/18 - the classic optimism of the gooner. What are the rest of your excuses?
Special mention for AFM yet again: 2 unique correct predictions so well done (Newcastle win & Liverpool/Sunderland draw)

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard, as ever for those who have played >2/3 of available week, (11/15 this week)

Not a great week for most - everyone bar Verber, Silverman and myself batting below their average. Still, I'm not complaining. The Feneleys & Doron are just starting to get cut off from the rest of the mid-table...though still lots of predicting to be done!

To this week's predos:

Burnley vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Chelsea vs Hull - CHELSEA

Crystal Palace vs Stoke - STOKE

Leicester vs Man City - MAN CITY

Sunderland vs West Ham - WEST HAM

WBA vs Aston Villa - ASTON VILLA

Arsenal vs Newcastle - ARSENAL

Man Utd vs Liverpool - MAN UTD

Swansea vs Spurs - DRAW

Everton vs QPR - EVERTON

Total odds:  1078/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys!

S4M15: Why the numbers matter

I wrote after updating the last week's blog with my midweek predos "that felt difficult". I meant that it seemed tough to decide which results would occur.

Then PaddyPower spat me out odds of 453/1. Bugger all.

Then everyone else had low odds.

Then 7/10 games had either a 15-0-0 split or a 14-1-0 split (not necessarily in that order).

So the tough week, seemed to be a regression to the mean according to the bookies, and some sort of herd mentality from us. One day, some PhD student studying anthropology or summat clever is gonna stumble across this blog and use it to prove/support something interesting about the word. Maybe there is already a theory - I'm just putting it down to maths trumping instinct.

Couple of good matchdays then all round.

What happened? Sunderland continued their hoodoo over Chelsea - although only partially, so it's more of a hoo. Tight games elsewhere in all matches not involving a club from Manchester, and a humdinger of limited quality between QPR & Leicester.

There was also some awesome goalkeeping on display - De Gea against Stoke, Forster against Arsenal, Green vs Swansea to name a few. City and Chelsea have kept on rolling, as have Man Utd & West Ham under the radar. Hell....even Arsenal have finally gone on a little run...thought I'm sure that'll judder to a halt this weekend. The latest collective line from the press is about plucky Southampton running out of puff, but they did this last year too....and have turned a large profit in the meantime so spare me the tears.

Anyway, double stats week so let's get statty:

M13:

23 people played
Most popular predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (23/23)
Most disputed result: West Ham vs Newcastle (7-9-7 split)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 6614/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 1218/1
Average odds: 3267/1

Highest score: Yo Abbott (9/10)!
Lowest score: Tarek Najm (2/10)
Average score: 5/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: Chelsea vs Sunderland DRAW (0/23)

M14:

15 people played - sort it out guys! Remember midweek games! and you had reminders!
Most popular predicted results: Man Utd, Chelsea & Everton WINS (15/15)
Most disputed result: WBA vs West Ham (5-5-5 split - people are really confused by West Ham)

Highest odds: Doron Salomon 3750/1
Lowest odds: Steven Daniels 414/1
Average odds: 1261/1

Highest score: Josh Daniels 9/10
Lowest score: Jonny Chernick 4/10
Average score: 6.67/10

Best predicted results: Man Utd & Chelsea WINS (15/15)
Worst predicted result: Everton vs Hull DRAW (0/15)

Everyone's results on a lovely graph that's not at all more confusing than if I'd just done 2 separate graphs like normal:

No-one got 0. The 0s mean they didn't play - like Lawro mid-week.

So that's 3 9s in 3 games! Keep it up guys!

To the leaderboard (>2/3 of available weeks = 10/14):

Some major changes - The Feneleys have sunk to the bottom, propping up a less than surprised Doron, a slightly surprised David and a furious me, who's been leapfrogged by Yo off 1 good result. Not quite so much action in the top half - quite a gap from Josh Gaon to Sam Ruback, and from Chernick to Josh Daniels - stratification is occurring!

To this week's predos:

Newcastle vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Hull vs WBA - DRAW

Liverpool vs Sunderland - LIVERPOOL

QPR vs Burnley - QPR

Stoke vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Spurs vs Crystal Palace - DRAW

Man City vs Everton - MAN CITY

West Ham vs Swansea - WEST HAM

Aston Villa vs Leicester - ASTON VILLA

Southampton vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Total odds: 2674/1 (PaddyPower)

Good luck guys