S4M12: Real Ma*******drid

I found meself in Seville last weekend (great city, highly recommended) and thought I'd find a nice bar to settle into on Saturday night to watch the Arsenal vs Man Utd game, followed by Sevilla's trip to the Camp Nou. I was wrong. Do you know how hard it is to find English football when either of the Big 2 in Spain are playing?

Arsenal vs Man Utd was bumped in every single bar except for some faux-Irish sports bar shite for Real Madrid vs Elbar. Seriously. For a fish-in-a-barrel kinda game. I predicted 5-0 to the bar guy with whom I had the longest argument in schoolboy Spanish (Quien el f**k es Elbar? Estamos en Sevilla....no estamos en Madrid) - it was 4-0 and I didn't watch any football. So silver lining, or I'd have had to have been arrested for throwing a mounted bull's head (yeah...that's very popular in matador territory) at the TV screen.

So I haven't got a clue what happened aside from a masochistic 10 minutes in front of MoTD when I got home. On that note, it's interesting (and some what literally incredible) that fewer people thought Man Utd would win away at Arsenal, than thought Crystal Palace would beat Liverpool at home.

So, bit of a cop out this week in terms of the above, but if anyone wants tips for a lovely weekend break in Andalucia, please get in touch.

Let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
Most popular predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Most disputed result: Leicester vs Sunderland (7-9-5 split)

Highest odds: Andrew Feneley's Mum (79,546/1)
***Highest odds excluding AFM: Sam Ruback 6905/1 (New Category)***:
Lowest odds: Me 629/1
Average odds: 14, 115/1 (3209//1 excluding AFM)

Best predictor: Sam Ruback (9/10) - really well done - wait to see the Bar Chart later. High odds, and only ruined by his relentless gooner bias.
Worst predictors: Josh Daniels & Feneley 3/10
Average score: 4.9/10

Best predicted result: Chelsea WIN (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd WIN (1/21 - well done Doron)

Everyone's results:

Just further emphasises how much Sam stood out.

To the leaderboard (>2/3 or 9/12):

AFM's early season form is starting to look a little like beginner's luck..that's all I'm saying.

To this week's predictions:

WBA vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Burnley vs Aston Villa - BURNLEY

Liverpool vs Stoke - DRAW

Man Utd vs Hull - MAN UTD

QPR vs Leicester - QPR

Swansea vs Crystal Palace - SWANSEA

West Ham vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Sunderland vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Southampton vs Man City - MAN CITY

Spurs vs Everton - DRAW

Total odds: 3200/1 (PaddyPower)

***Update: 01/12/2014 0851 ***

Matches for next midweek:

Burnley vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Leicester vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Man Utd vs Stoke - MAN UTD

Swansea vs QPR - SWANSEA

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa - CRYSTAL PALACE

WBA vs West Ham - WEST HAM

Arsenal vs Southampton - ARSENAL

Chelsea vs Spurs - CHELSEA

Everton vs Hull - EVERTON

Sunderland vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 453/1 (PaddyPower) - that felt pretty tough!

I'll complete mine later, and will try to send a reminder out on Sunday evening - though set your own too!

Good luck guys!

S4M11 (mk 2): I can count, I promise

Thank to the FIFA gods for the international break. Yeah, I mean that. It's given me opportunity to track back through the stats and find out why you're all so moany abut your scores.

In fairness, they were wrong. As Impossibilitee Overlord, the buck stops here. I apologise for any wrong doing. However, in true Blatterian style, I've decided to ignore the clamours for an independent review of the database, and done it myself.

Basically...er....week 5 was counted twice. As week 7. The real week 7 became week 8 and so on. Therefore, this week's post was initially titled "S4M12: somthing funny here", but then I noticed that the League table stated P11 for all teams. So I did my review. And have fixed the problem. Not a £16k watch involved. Although gifts are gratefully received - the more frivolous the better. Get in touch and I'll let you know how to send your bribes offerings signs-of-appreciation-that-have-no-role-in-trying-to-curry-favour.

Anyway - small amounts of blame attached to you all for failing to notice the incorrect counting of weeks. You can't whistle blow if you're not in a greenhouse with stones, as the saying should go.

Anyway, all fixed now so that's good.

The last weekend was too long ago to do a proper review - suffice it to say that Chelsea, Newcastle, Swansea and Burnley were happy and no-one else was. I refuse to allow Man Utd fans to be happy with a squeaky 1-0 win at home to Palace. My ball, my rules.

Let's get statty:

This week, 23 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man Utd WIN (23/23)
Most disputed result: Burnley vs Hull (8-6-9 split)

Highest odds*: Josh Daniels 2,542/1
Lowest odds: Sam Ruback 760/1
Average odds*: 1,563/1

* AFM's odds have been discounted due to them being >100x the next highest odds whilst only being 2 results different & those are games that the bookies definitely did not put those kind of odds on. I have presumed this is erroneous.  A further investigation is taking place, and this will be amended should I see proof of those odds being offered by a UK licensed bookmaker and not AFD (who may be a UK licensed bookmaker, but then I want to see his licence too. And working out).

Best predictor: Doron Salomon (6/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of people (3/10)
Average score: 4.09/10

Best predicted result: Man Utd WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: QPR vs Man City DRAW & Stoke WIN (1/23 - congrats to Josh Daniels & Adrian Daniels respectively)

Everyone's scores:

Now for the new, amended leaderboard, for those who have played >2/3 of weeks (8/11):

So the first thing to note is how most people's scores have increased. This is due to Week 5 having been a bad week for most. The next, is the drop from Yo Abbott & AFM. Doron has also edged closer to his usual spot. Former champs ECI are slowly clawing back the deficit too. No huge changes elsewhere, although Verbinho has snuck up into 3rd place. Don't think I didn't notice. Hot on his tail are 3 statistical behemoths however. And Sam, Charlie & Jonny.

To this week's predos:

Chelsea vs WBA - CHELSEA
Everton vs West Ham - DRAW
Leicester vs Sunderland - LEICESTER
Man City vs Swansea - MAN CITY
Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE
Stoke vs Burnley - STOKE
Arsenal vs Man Utd - ARSENAL
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL
Hull vs Spurs - SPURS
Aston Villa vs Southampton - SOUTHAMPTON

Total odds: 629/1 (PaddyPower)

S4M11: Predictably Unpredictable

Howdy friends,

So - looking at the results from last weekend with a bit of distance, can any of us say we're genuinely surprised at how that panned out? Maybe the Sunderland win was unexpected....but there are a lot of dross teams and really anything could happen - it's hardly like Palace have been flying (or soaring....I'll grab my coat.) Other than that - you'd look at all those results and think...'yep'.

So why did we do predictably average as a group? Are we all so used to the zany that we're now outfoxed by the double-bluff? One day, when I've got more time, I'm going to delve deeper into my statistical treasure chest, accumulated over the last 4 years - draw out some of the interesting patterns, write a book, sell loads (mainly to you guys to give as christmas presents to your secret santas) and buy a desert island. That's basically the only way that I can see to understand why random stuff happens - the desert island is a benefit that is just unavoidable.

Sidetracked somewhat - what else happened this week? Moaninho turned his act towards the Chelsea fans in a superbly ironical experiment to see just what happens when you bite the hand that doesnt really feed you when you're paid by a billionaire. What happens is utter indifference and a half-arsed comedown later on. Also, in happier news, Jonas Gutierrez has been given the all clear from his testicular cancer - which segues nicely onto my little bit of charity begging.

This year, for the first time, I'm Movembering. I've never really thought of it as a worthy challenge before, but read something last year (which I forgot to favourite and have subsequently lost) about why it's actually more difficult than you think - so yeah...now I'm simultaneously hairier and shaving more than ever before. I'm doing it more to raise awareness of Men's Health issues - mainly testicular and prostate cancer & mental health issues - but if you have a few quid sitting in a bank account looking lonely, we'd love your support. You can catch my work team here - http://uk.movember.com/team/1684649

Right, enough of that...let's get statty:

This week, 21 people played
The most popular predicted results were Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (21/21)
The most disputed result was Newcastle vs Liverpool (4-7-9 split)

The highest odds were (shocker) Andrew Feneley's Mum (12, 574/1)
The lowest odds were Josh Daniels (genuine shocker) 2002/1
Average odds: 6446/1

Highest scorer: WhoScored.com, Eli Daniels, David Dinkins, Menachem Grunewald, Richard Verber and the super special guest this week - Rachel Riley. I didn't meet her in the flesh, unlikely Sir Bobby, but one day, she'll reply to my barrage of fan mail (6/10)
Lowest scorer: Tarek Najm (2/10)
Average score: 4.67/10

Best predicted results: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (21/21)
Worst predicted result: Sunderland WIN (2/21)

Everyone's results:

To the leaderboard, for those who've played >2/3 of weeks....or 8/11

Big gaps from 1-2 and bottom-1 from bottom.

To this week's predos:

Liverpool vs Chelsea - CHELSEA
Burnley vs Hull - HULL
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace - MAN UTD
Southampton vs Leicester - SOUTHAMPTON
West Ham vs Aston Villa - WEST HAM
QPR vs Man City - MAN CITY
Sunderland vs Everton - EVERTON
Spurs vs Stoke - SPURS
WBA vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE
Swansea vs Arsenal - DRAW

Total odds: 1103/1 (Paddypower)

Good luck guys.