Matchday 23: It's getting a bit cold for football...

I really hate winter. It's one of the main reasons why I gave up Sunday league football, and I'm reasonably sure that the British climate has contributed to my frequently grumpy nature. Others get off on the crunch of fresh snow under foot - give me scorching heat any day of the week.

Put it this way - it's definitely snood weather (and my snood predates that of Nasri, Berbatov etc by about 4 years. It's fleecy and awesome and I don't care who knows it). However, if someone offered me £30k pw (squad player - I know my limits...), I'd probably huddle under a blanket on the bench and pray that I wasn't called upon.

In other words, do an Arshavin.

Midweek predictions as follows:

Swansea vs Chelsea - DRAW

Wolves vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOOL

Spurs vs Wigan - SPURS

Man Utd vs Stoke - MAN UTD

Everton vs Man City - DRAW

Aston Villa vs QPR -DRAW

Blackburn vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

Sunderland vs Norwich - SUNDERLAND

Bolton vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Fulham vs WBA - FULHAM

Total odds: 1832/1 with Paddypower

Good luck, predos in the comments below as per usual

Matchday 22 Results!

I wrote a few weeks ago about the 'Moneyball' effect - the numbers not backing up what my intuition told me. I should know better than to trust my intuition. I've been languishing in the lower half of the table for most of the season, and those privy to my fantasy football selection will know that I have no right to boo Wenger (or anyone else) for making terrible player decisions.

However, this week really took the biscuit. Excluding my semi-wasted prediction for the Arsenal vs Man Utd game which I expected nothing from, (but out of a sense of loyalty, I'll never put money on Arsenal to lose,) I got 2 right. One of these relied on a 93rd minute penalty from a bloke who arguably shouldn't have been on the pitch.

Not my best week.

Not as terrible as Yanik however, who enters the leaderboard this week. He's had a few decent scores, so could have been a contender for top spot, but got a dismal 1 correct result. Our newest player, Jonathan Chernick (far too long, from now on JC) did much better with a solid 5.

Full stats breakdown below:

This week, 17 people played

Most popular predicted result: Stoke WIN(16/17 or 94% concordance)

Most disputed result: Fulham vs Newcastle (4-6-7 split)

Longest odds: Will O'Doherty with a redonculous 61100/1 (that's £611 from a 1p bet....I was gunning for you mate!)

Shortest odds: Sam Ruback at 1545/1

Best predictor: Doron (6/10)

Worst predictor: Yanik (1/10)

Best predicted result: QPR, Sunderland & Man City WINS (12/17)

Worst predicted result: WBA WIN (0/17)

Villain of the week: No official villain, but I have to say my bit on Balotelli. I'm fence straddling here - part of me thinks that he's clearly moved his leg unnaturally with some force, and therefore should have gone for a stamp. However, the other part of me thinks that he'd have had to have made up his mind to stamp on a guy he had no previous issue with so fast that I don't think it could have been a deliberate assault. My feeling is that, if I'm still undecided 4 days later after having seen it over and over, the ref was right not to send him off as the doubt must have been there (especially as he didn't appear to even get a proper view). Honorable mention to Karl Henry for costing me an extra point.

Goal of the Week: New category this week as there were some utter screamers. Keane and Sessegnon get commendations, as do Bale and Van Persie (more for the build up). The winner for me, was Craig Gardner's strike to seal victory for Sunderland.

Everyone's results:

So to the leaderboard: as stated before, Yanik has joined in and slots in comfortably in 2nd place. Last week, he was only 0.02 off Joe, so this might be the boost he needs to up his game! The rest are even more tightly congested and nothing too interesting is happening at the bottom. Ryan and Doron are still a few weeks off a return.

FA Cup weekend, so no predictions this time around.

Have a great weekend & I'll see you all back this time next week!

Arsenal 1 - 2 Man Utd: Well that was predictable, wasn't it...

Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error - Cicero

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - Einstein

Before I start, I'd like to say that I've literally just got back from the game and seen no replays of anything. These are my views based on my seat in the Clock End Upper.

• The team selection: probably the best we could have hoped for. I was glad to see Chamberlain given a go from the start, espcecially since Utd have a left back in terrible form and a centre back/half at right back.
• We started at a decent pace, but it was clear from the off that it was not going to be Walcott's day. I don't know how many times he passed the ball directly to a ball boy, and his decision making was typically hopeless.
• The move where Jones got injured, Walcott got to the byeline and then drilled the ball along the goal mouth, where there were no red shirts. If he'd looked up and seen the space around the penalty spot, he'd have know that was the place to lay the ball off for the onrushing Ramsey to meet it. Even if no-one had met it, it would have been an intelligent use of the ball - and a failing of the midfield to support the attack.
• The midfield were second to every ball and were lacking any fluent passing. Ramsey has looked knackered for months and Wilshere can't come back fast enough. Song only plays well when under pressure, which (with Frimpong on loan and Coquelin injured) he isn't and Rosicky was decent enough but was typically parsimonious with the ball. I'd like to see more of the Little Mozart's creativity as a senior player in the squad.
• Whoever thought it'd be a great idea to lump the ball up to RVP as an out ball needs a slap. He did the best he could, with some fantastic control, but he'll always be better as a pivot, with the ball to his feet, finding midfield runners than as a typical no.9. When he goes in the summer, I'm sure we can get CarroLOL for cheap if that's how we want to play.
• Vermaelen was ok, but will be disappointed to have let Valencia get a run on him for the goal.
• Djourou is not a full back. This is clear. He's had enough games there to learn the basics, but he costs us time and time again with his failure to learn positional plays. If he realised Nani was doing him for pace, then he needs to stay back more. He doesn't block off the crosses and got wrong side countless times in the first half.
• That said, in mitigation, defending is a team activity and he should have his hand held by Mertesacker/Koscielny and recieve more protection from the wings - neither Walcott nor Chamberlain particularly helped out.
• I rate Yennaris over Miquel. He's got tenacity and a cool head. Gotta be in the side until Sagna/Santos get back for me.
• Szczesny had a good game - held everything and no real chance with either goal.
• Great start to the second half - lots of high tempo play, pressuring Utd from the front and forcing mistakes like the one from Evans....I'd have put my sister's future tuition fees on RVP burying that chance. Unbelievable.
• Our goal was fantastic - from the tackle by Koscielny to the long ball by Rosicky, Chamberlain's reverse pass and the finish from RVP. Someone in front (a Utd fan) blamed Rafael for being out of position - I think that's unfair. He'd got forward and the ball was transferred to the other end of the pitch and such pace that he had no chance to get back. Someone should have covered for him.
• Wenger needs to admit that he got it very wrong with the substitution. Chamberlain was our best player (and maybe on the pitch) and taking him off over Walcott shows there is a hierarchy in my eyes. It also killed any momentum we had, as did Rooney's feigning injury.
• Why Arshavin? He hasn't played well since 2010 in my mind. Benayoun offers as much going forward and works harder defensively....he wouldn't have let Valencia dance about like that. I think it's time to accept that the little Russian hasn't worked out and say thanks for that night at Anfield, best for the future.
• Park did very little, but that's still more than Chamakh.
• The crowd were subdued - both the Arsenal (surprise) and the Utd sections. I think it's the realisation that we're both at our weakest point for a generation.

On Utd:

• I thought they were reasonably comfortable without ever being good. The defence weren't really tested, and Carrick and Giggs will never have had as easy an afternoon against Arsenal as they did today. Nani owned Djourou first half and Valencia was solid. Welbeck is talented
• Rooney is a vile c*nt and goes above John Terry in the c*ntladder for me. I don't say that lightly. He is a hypocritical, whining thug with a inflated sense of self-worth. Little bits of sick actually come into my mouth thinking of the influence he might have at England training camps over Wilshere, Walcott etc. Odious prick, massive underachiever.
• Smalling looks class, Rafael is useless. When he got booked for fouling Walcott first half, I knew we'd get joy down his side. He's positionally suspect, rash in the challenge and lazy. Fergie was right to haul him off, and I can't imagine he's gonna have a long career at Old Trafford.

• From where I was, looked like Dean was up to his usual tricks. Booking Ramsey for a nothing tackle, RVP for complaining about the blatant timewasting by Evra. Do me a favour. And I think it was the Koscielny tackle that won nothing but ball - total joke.

I said before the game that whoever was less shit would win. I thought Utd probably shaded it, due to looking threatening when they went forward as opposed to our usual game of "after you - no, please, after you - no, really I inisist....". That said, if we'd rescued a draw, I'm not sure Utd fans could have complained too much.

Basically, we're hoping Chelsea implode worse than we do to crawl over the line into 4th. What a fantastic position to be in. All totally avoidable with decent squad planning. Get rid of the dross (Arshavin, Almunia, Denilson, Diaby, Squillaci etc), tell Djourou, Bendtner and Walcott that they if they improve, they'll get games (and a payrise Walcott, you greedy git. Try improving before you want £85k pw...) and if they don't want to wait, then they can leave.

Fill the holes with signings like Sagna, Arteta, Vermaelen - ie £7-10m players who don't have to be superstar names, but are solid professionals, with a mental strength and a determination not to piss away their 20 year dream career on a mock-Tudor home and an identikit WAG. I know that sounds a bit Football Managery, but I can't imagine that there aren't players out there who would improve the squad and not cost the earth - we found several this summer. That allows Ramsey, Wilshere, Chamberlain, Walcott etc to develop at the right pace and not be given too much responsibility too soon.

2012 is the crux - will the next 5 years see us fulfil the potential of the Emirates project and kick on, competing for trophies with the financially doped City, Chelsea etc? Or will we drop off, and become a Liverpool, living off memories and looking back to the glory days of yore.

I'll still be coming to the Emirates, still be singing and swearing and supporting my team. I just hope that the stadium is full of happy fans, and not half-full of despondent cynics.

Rant over, time for dinner

Matchday 21 results & Matchday 22 Predictions

A decent weekend of footy I thought, removing my Arsenal hat (and scarf, and replica shirt, and tie, and...never mind). The big "shock" came at the Liberty Stadium, although it wasn't really a shock if I'm honest, and the surprising thing is that only Doron called it!

Torres looked interested for the first time in months, some ginger bloke wound up Wazza, some other ginger bloke "did a Thierry" and Liverpool are still dreadful. I can say that, some of my best mates are Scouse.

My favourite moment of the weekend came in the Monday night game at the DW. Figueroa's amazing handball brought back memories of my 1st year of Sunday league football playing for Pinner U10s. We weren't a great team (thought we weren't bad either) and it was basically run for the co-managers' sons to have a run about. Anyway, one game I was in defence and we were getting beat. We had a corner and I was the last man back - needless to say, when you play junior football on large pitches, corners rarely come to much and this was no exception. They cleared the ball, and inexplicably, on the halfway line, I punched the ball back (at a comfortable heading height). The ref gave the free kick (durrrr) and asked me why I'd done it - totally lied and just told him I'd tried to head it and missed. Apparently it was better to be malcoordinated than to be a cheat. Didn't even get a booking - I don't recall if the opposition manager was waving an imaginary card. I'd love to know if Ol' Maynor gave the same excuse...

Anyway, to the stats:

A better week this week - the average score was 4, so we're moving in the right direction. A welcome too, to a new player, Jonathan Chernick. No beginners' luck for him, with a score of 3, but think of it like a January signing - the lad has until May to acclimatise to the world of English predictions and will be expected to be firing on all cylinders come the new season.

This week, 18 people played

Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (18/18 or 100% concordance)

Most disputed result: Aston Villa vs Everton (6-6-6 split)

Longest odds: Ryan Wain 4800.2/1

Shortest odds: Will O'Doherty 303/1

Best predictors: Yanik Joshi, Sam Ruback and Doron Salomon (6/10)

Worst predictors: Will O'Doherty, Jonathan Chernick, JT, Josh Benson and Dan Davis (3/10)

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (18/18)

Worst predicted results: Spurs vs Wolves DRAW & Swansea WIN (1/18 - Well done Yanik & Doron)

Villain of the week: No-one scored highly enough for there to be a true villain, but I'm going with Arsene Wenger for his glaring oversight on Sunday. He's not a trainers kind-of-guy. It looks a bit like my dad in exercise gear - stick to the suits in future, son.

Everyone's scores:

To the leaderboard:

Just as a reminder, you need to have played >2/3 of weeks to get on the leaderboard (or 15/21). All those Xmas no shows have cost Ryan and Doron places here - and they'll have to wait a few weeks to get on - next week, Yanik should join too. No massive movers - you could argue that there are 2 distinct mid-table packs forming, but the margins are so small that could all change in one week. Joe Miller still way out ahead, but will that be the case when the 3 above get on the board...

To this week's predictions:

Norwich vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Everton vs Blackburn - DRAW

Fulham vs Newcastle - NEWCASTLE

QPR vs Wigan - WIGAN

Sunderland vs Swansea - DRAW

Stoke vs WBA - STOKE

Wolves vs Aston Villa - WOLVES

Bolton vs Liverpool - LIVERPOOL

Man City vs Spurs - MAN CITY

Arsenal vs Man Utd - DRAW (not really but I'll never bet on a defeat)

Total odds:12769/1 (Paddypower) - pretty pretty please come in this week...

Predictions in the comments below as per usual, good luck!

Xmas Stats and Matchday 21: Back to the league

Isn't rheumatoid arthritis great!

Well, I don't exactly mean great. Certainly not from my perspective, and definitely not from a sufferer's perspective. However, learning about it for the 93rd time in a week meant that I could use my time to finally sit down and hammer out the stats from the last 5 games.

As my football viewing over Xmas was limited to 23 minutes of Sunderland vs Everton (before I fell asleep), and a few snatched highlights off 101greatgoals, I didn't really feel I was in a position to comment on games, villains etc. It'd have been quite tedious for everyone to have sat through a mega blog post breaking down the stats matchday by matchday. Therefore, I thought I'd synopsise in true F365 style, with my "16 conclusions of the Impossibilitee Xmas"*

• Do you lot need your mothers to get you up in the mornings? I go away for a few short weeks, and without my nagging, numbers dropped by half!
• On that note, those of you who only gave one set of predictions to a blog post with 2 sets of fixtures in it....absolutely baffled! How long would it have taken to do the 2nd set! Complaint over
• All in all, we were rubbish over Xmas. The average score was a smidgen over 4. By contrast, the season average is 4.66. Does this suggest that the fixture congestion throws up crazy results, or are we all just a bit jaded?
• Boxing Day was the worst matchday of the season to date, with an average score of 3. Even the lunacy of the next set of matches when Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City all lost wasn't as terrible, scoring an average of 3.43.
• Individually, JT scored the highest over the 6 matches, with an 8 in the 1st week.
• Lowest scores were Lawro and Sam Ruback with 1.
• Joe Miller has opened up a decent lead at the top. Thanks for putting the message out whilst I was away.
• The rest of the table is still very congested. Lots still to play for.
• It feels a bit Moneyball-y. By this I mean that the numbers disagree with my intuition as to how everyone did. When I was working all this out, I thought some did better than they actually did, and thought others (myself included) did worse.

*If you want to know why this doesn't add up to 16, then you don't read F365. Your loss (most of the time). Great article today about homophobia in football.

Here are the average scores for those who played 2 or more rounds over Xmas. JT, Will O'Doherty and Josh Daniels get gold stars. Sam Ruback get the lump of coal.

The new table is below. Ryan missed 1 week to many, so has dropped out, but he and 1 or 2 others should join next week if they play. To summarise, other than the 3 with the gold stars above, everyone else went down. It's pretty tightly contested however.

To make up for the rush last week, I'm putting the predictions out now in plenty of time.

Blackburn vs Fulham - DRAW

Chelsea vs Sunderland - CHELSEA

Aston Villa vs Everton - EVERTON

Spurs vs Wolves - SPURS

WBA vs Norwich - NORWICH

Liverpool vs Stoke - STOKE

Man Utd vs Bolton - MAN UTD

Newcastle vs QPR - NEWCASTLE

Swansea vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Wigan vs Man City - MAN CITY

Total odds: 2422/1 with PaddyPower.

The Spurs vs Everton game this week from the opening day is being ignored, as not enough people made predictions back then for me to include it fairly.

Predos in the comments below as per usual - it's a new year and let's get back on track!

Finally, if anyone is/knows a web developer who is footy mad (or otherwise willing to work for beer), please pass them my way. I'm looking to develop this for next season and want to run ideas past someone technical. Any RTs/reccommendations to that effect will be gratefully received, and may result in said beer for you!

Good luck guys!

Last Gasp New Years Post

Hi Guys!

Hope that your festive period was fun and food-filled.

Due to a combination of fog, airline incompetence and jet lag, this blog is later than planned and therefore a bit of a scramble.

I haven't decided whether or not it'll be included in the actual stats, as there isn't a huge amount of notice being given - I guess it'll depend on how many people are able to enter in time! Even if you miss one or 2 games, still enter results/predos as I might do an average score or something.

My predictions are as follows:

QPR vs Norwich - NORWICH

Blackburn vs Stoke - BLACKBURN

Wolves vs Chelsea - CHELSEA

Aston Villa vs Swansea - ASTON VILLA

Fulham vs Arsenal - ARSENAL

Spurs vs WBA - SPURS

Wigan vs Sunderland - DRAW

Man City vs Liverpool - DRAW

Newcastle vs Man Utd - MAN UTD

Everton vs Bolton - EVERTON

Total odds: 2101/1 (Paddypower)

I'll try and process all the stats from the last few weeks and get a massive post done later this week.

Good luck!