S15M11: We're safe (for now)

Its's 2025. I'm a busy man. So I did what anybody would do. I asked ChatGPT to lighten my load.

My load is not lightened.

After four attempts, it’s clear that asking ChatGPT to write a football blog is like asking a goldfish to explain offside. The enthusiasm’s there — lots of words, plenty of confidence — but somewhere between the algorithmic optimism and the “irreverent tone” brief, it loses the plot. One version started musing about kettles, another reviewed imaginary teams, and by the third, we’d entered full existential crisis territory. So, rather than risk another 400 words of synthetic banter and misplaced metaphor, we’re cutting our losses. The AI’s gone back to its data cave, and we’re sticking to what it can’t ruin — the results. Cold, clean, factual results. No tangents, no tortured analogies, no leaf-clearing philosophy. Just the scores, as they happened, free from poetic interpretation or robotic rambling. Sometimes you have to admit defeat, whistle for full-time, and take the point. Now, on to the football.

This weekend saw an interesting series of events where all the models (av 7.1) outperformed the normal, regular joes (av 5.5) by quite a bit. This isn't quite an AI thing, but made me think about how expertise has been reviewed in isolation, and what a collated model might be, One for the off season perhaps...

S15M10: Back on the Wagon

Apparently I've not written anything for weeks. Oops.

I knew I'd slacked for a couple, but...yeah, sorry.

The good news is that my lack of blogs have coincided with a rotten run of form for Liverpool. So, if they win this weekend, maybe this will be the last blog I write this season....

Anyway, I'm not recapping everything. Plenty to get through to update below so we'll just crack on

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Let's get statty:

M6

This week, 23 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City WIN (23/23)
Most disputed predicted result: Brentford vs Man Utd (9-6-8 split)

Highest odds: Steven Daniels (3,170/1)
Lowest odds: Feneley (623/1)
Average odds: 1,808/1

Best predictor: Joe Abbott (5/10)
Worst predictors: Loads of us (2/10)
Average score: 3.09/10

Best predicted result: Man City WIN (23/23)
Worst predicted result: Crystal Palace & Brighton WINS (0/23)

M7

This week, 24 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal WIN (24/24)
Most disputed predicted result: Man Utd vs Sunderland (12-5-7 split)

Highest odds: Josh Daniels (4,106/1)
Lowest odds: AFM (605/1)
Average odds: 2,605/1

Best predictor: Eli Daniels (8/10)
Worst predictor: Zoe Daniels (4/10)
Average score: 6.13/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (24/24)
Worst predicted result:Wolves vs Brighton (1/24 - Well done Daniel Wigman)

M8

This week, 22 people played
Most popular predicted result: Man City, Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (22/22)
Most disputed predicted result: Brighton vs Newcastle (8-8-6 split)

Highest odds: Feneley (1,946/1)
Lowest odds: Geoffrey Skolnick (1,346/1)
Average odds: 1,750/1

Best predictors: Zoe Daniels & Opta (7/10)
Worst predictor: Chris Sutton (3/10)
Average score: 4.77/10

Best predicted result: Man City, Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (22/22)
Worst predicted result: Aston Villa WIN (0/22)

M9

This week, 25 people played
Most popular predicted result: Arsenal & Chelsea WINS (25/25)
Most disputed predicted result: Everton vs Spurs (8-5-12 split)

Highest odds: Fenely (2,570/1)
Lowest odds: Josh Daniels (352/1)
Average odds: 1,465/1

Best predictor: David Brickman (8/10)
Worst predictors: David Graniewitz, David Silverman & Joe Abbott (4/10)
Average score: 5.80/10

Best predicted result: Arsenal WIN (25/25)
Worst predicted result: Aston Villa & Sunderland WINS (0/25)

Everyone's score:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 7/9)

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To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S15M6: Light Jacket

Oh look. A one matchweek blog.

Wonders will never cease...

What happened? Well...

Liverpool beat Everton 2–1 in a derby that felt like two cousins arguing over who gets the last roast potato. Gravenberch scored, Ekitike scored, and then Everton remembered they exist, before promptly forgetting again. Slot grinned the grin of a man who has found both his car keys and a tenner in the same pocket.

Arsenal versus Manchester City was meant to be grandmaster chess. Instead it was toddlers with soup spoons. City executed a never seen-before-game-plan, Arsenal huffed, and then in the 93rd minute Martinelli lobbed in a goal so audacious it should have been wearing a fake moustache. One-all, both sides left clutching a balloon animal shaped like disappointment. I left to go to work. I was VERY tired on Monday

Over in Manchester, United and Chelsea staged a farce in the Surrey Derby. Red cards fell like confetti at a budget wedding. Casemiro scored, then received his own eviction notice. Chelsea’s goalkeeper vanished early as if he was a united fan needing to beat the traffic home. Somehow it ended 2–1 to United, though no one was entirely sure whether they’d watched football or avant-garde theatre.

Elsewhere, Brighton and Spurs played a 2–2 that resembled polite applause, Burnley and Forest refused to acknowledge each other’s existence, and West Ham quietly surrendered to Crystal Palace. Aston Villa finally scored a goal after weeks of striking a vow of silence, but then immediately spoiled it with a red card, gifting Sunderland a way back.

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Let's get statty:

This week, 22 people played
Most popular predicted result: Liverpool WIN (19/22)
Most disputed predicted result: Brighton vs Spurs (7-7-8 split)

Highest odds: Aron Kleiman (18,6211)
Lowest odds: Hannah Daniels (2098/1)
Average odds: 10,508/1

Best predictors: Feneley, Wigman, Oliver Kay (6/10)
Worst predictors: Steven Daniels, Oli Elton (2/10)
Average score: 3.91/10

Best predicted result: Liverpool WIN (19/22)
Worst predicted result: Man Utd WIN (1/22 - Well done Daniel Wigman)

Everyone's score:

Leaderboard (>2/3; 4/5)

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To this week's predos:

Good luck all

S15M5: General Purpose Blogging

Right, first things first — sorry for ghosting. I know, I know… weeks without a post and you’ve been left fending for yourselves in the cruel, chaotic wilderness of football predictions. Honestly, I had every intention of sitting down, rattling out some words, but then life turned up like a two-footed tackle from behind. Work, family, random nonsense — all piled in like Burnley on a counter-attack, and suddenly writing about football felt about as doable as Allardyce taking a yoga class. So yeah, apologies for the radio silence. I haven’t stopped caring. I’ve just been knackered, distracted, and running around like a headless chicken who also somehow has three spreadsheets due by 5pm.

Still, we’re back. Or at least, I’m back. The blog didn’t die. It just had a little nap.

Now, about those four matchdays I’ve not written about… nah. Not happening. You’ll cope. If you desperately need a blow-by-blow recap of every misplaced pass and dodgy refereeing decision, then maybe I’ll set up a Patreon for the truly masochistic among you. You can pay me to rant at length while I slowly lose what’s left of my sanity. But for free? You’re getting the highlights going forward, not the DVD extras.

So, we'll skip ahead to this week's fixtures

The weekend kicks off with Liverpool vs Everton, aka the annual Merseyside street fight disguised as football — expect chaos, cards, and Slot veins bulging by minute 10. Brighton vs Spurs should be fun if you like one team passing triangles and the other sprinting like they’re late for last orders. Burnley vs Forest feels like the kind of match only their mums will watch, while West Ham vs Palace screams “1-1 and nobody happy.”

Wolves vs Leeds could be frantic — both allergic to control. Then the soap opera: Man United vs Chelsea, where two clubs spend like oil barons but defend like Sunday leaguers. Fulham vs Brentford is West London’s hipster derby, usually entertaining, usually chaotic.

Sunday brings Bournemouth vs Newcastle — Cherries scrappy, Toon explosive, could go either way. Sunderland vs Villa is a wild throwback; Villa should win but Sunderland at home will fancy their chances of ruining parlays nationwide. And then the heavyweight: Arsenal vs Man City. Title credentials, tactical chess, and at least one Guardiola meltdown about “the schedule.”

Strap in: someone’s season is about to implode, someone else will be “in crisis,” and VAR will still make it all unbearable.

S15: What else could I have done with my time?

HELLO

Welcome back all. Other than last week's blog, it's been a while.

I'm always nostalgic at this time of year. Thinking back to my desk in my uni bedroom, silly chats about accumulators and sitting down, dipping the virtual quill in the virtual ink and starting off on the voyage that's led to today. A bit like that Vasco da Gama bloke. He thought he was going to India. Which is sort of did. But what he really did is create a football team in Brazil (who beat Man Utd so that's nice) AND create the situation for a Portuguese colony in Mozambique, thus leading to the creation of Nandos 500 years later. The point is, you never know what ripples, the first oar stroke makes. Or something like that #Deep.

This year, there's also been a back-end tech stack update. Like a stadium refresh, the Board of Directors have improved the CapEx necessary to breathe new life into a stale process. The VP (Spreadsheets) has been quoted as saying "We hope that the behind the scenes work will bring immediate improvements to the blogging experience that we long overdue. We respect and appreciate all our players and want this to be an enjoyable escapade that they can be proud of. Finally, we have a process in keeping with our stature as one of the largest accumulator accumulator games in the world, fit for the 21st century. We look forward to this translating to success in the (spread)sheets. Forza Impossibilitee". Basically, the analytics will now be AI Assisted...

So - let's start with the formalities. If you've played before, skip this paragraph. If you haven't let me direct you to the Rules tab above. It's pretty simple. Each week, you choose which team you think will win the match, or whether you think it'll be a draw. Think Football Pools style for those of you over 60. Each corrrect prediction = 1 point. Scores are averaged out over the season in a leaderboard - best predictor at the end wins the coveted Impossibilitee trophy. Bylaw - if a matchweek has fewer than 7 games, we ignore it, if it has 7-9 games, it get's pro-rated. 

That's it. That's the game. For those who like a flutter and want to share their 10 match accumulator odds, there's an *optional* field to fill in. DO NOT PUT YOUR NAME HERE. YOU WILL BREAK MY AUTOMATION.

We also have included a bunch of celebrity/tech-led predictors and models - just for fun and to benchmark yourself against. 

Right, think that's that for now. Let's get predicting....

Pre-Season Predictions:

M1 Predictions:

As ever - would be lovely to expand the group again so please share with friends/relatives/colleagues. We had 27 players last year - would be great to get 30 playing this year - all on the leaderboard!

Good luck all!

S14: Predictions Revisited

 Long overdue but frankly, I needed a break. Life is intense, isn't it? I've become a strong proponent of ULI in recent months. What is ULI you ask? Well those of you who haven't googled it that is.

Nope, not the Urban Land Institute nor a (delicious looking to be fair) noodle bar in Notting Hill. It's Universal Luxuriating Income. You see, I've long found the concept of UBI alluring, but the problem is, I like MY life. UBI probably doesn't stretch to that. So I'll need a bit more. Which is where work and stuff comes in. But that's all part of the problem, you see - Catch 22 has a sequel.

Enter ULI. What I'd like is for the government(s) to pay me to essentially be live a wealthy Roman lifestyle, or some sort of landed Victorian. I think I'd be really good at all that stuff. I type this drinking a coffee looking out at the waves in the early morning sun and, really, I'm excellent at this level of living. Join the movement folks, might get some T shirts made (dropship passive income natch, #capitalism).

How's it all paid for you ask? Dunno, PIF like everything else? Not my problem, will punt onto the next generation to solve like my sociological forefathers. My biological forefathers were SAINTS. Except the arsonist. We don't talk about him though.

Right, enough of this. You wanted a 2024 predos review before we got to the new season blog (written and prepped to go out on SUNDAY - set your govt-funded smartphones). So here goes...

S14: Done

 Another season done. Relief frankly. It's been a bit of a slog and my summer holidays is to upgrade the automation here. Some of you folks might remember the bad old days where I'd lovingly transcribe comments into a spreadsheet. We aren't going back there - but I'll have a play with the back end and publications - it's all in the Google world after all. I'm sure something can be done!

All the final day chat was, yet again, about refereeing and I'm honestly bored silly by it now. This error (the disallowed Morgan Rogers goal that would have put Villa 1-0 with 15 mins to play) is career, project and frankly club defining. It costs Villa CL football and allows Newcastle to limp over the line into a massive payday and there's no accountability at all. Rotten.

Of course, Unai Emery was going to find a way to fail, and Emi Martinez is *always* the main character, but even so....raging. 

Chelsea low-key came good after their mid-season wobble to win relatively comfortably at Forest, Woods misses weren't that egregious I thought.

Anyway, you're not here for the waffle. You're here for the leaderboard.